Dozier Closure: A Second Baseman’s Second Half Woes

The numbers on the surface tell a really good story for Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier. Just one of his contemporaries was even within 10 of Dozier’s MLB-high — among second basemen — 28 home runs (Robinson Cano, 21). Similarly, just one player was within 10 of his MLB-high 101 runs scored (Ian Kinsler, 94). His 77 RBIs (No. 2, Cano) and 12 steals (tied at No. 8 with Jace Peterson) were nothing to sneeze at either, and he was sixth (of 20) among qualified second basemen in walk rate as well at 8.7 percent.

It’s pretty clear to see why Dozier jumped to No. 6 in Zach Sanders’ end-of-season second base rankings with a value of nearly $18 in a $260 auction, 5×5 format. He was a four category stalwart who only really hurt owners in batting average, where his .236 mark paled in comparison to the MLB mark of .261 for second sackers.

The list of players he finished ahead of is a pretty solid one, as well: Cano ($16.78), Jason Kipnis ($14.83), Neil Walker ($9.39), Kolten Wong ($9.31) and Ben Zobrist ($7.93) all are a who’s who, or at least have been in recent years, of who you want in fantasy at second base. In fact, the list of second basemen ahead of Dozier is dotted with some interesting names, including surprise No. 1 Dee Gordon (thank you 58 steals), DJ LeMahieu and the quiet resurrection of Brandon Phillips.

Dozier’s .307 OBP hurts less in 5×5 leagues anyway, so boom, we’re pretty much ready to go, right? Dozier pretty much is who he is at this point, and that is a low BABIP slugger prone to cold stretches due to his over reliance on pulling fly balls — especially on high fastballs — out of the park, right?

Well that’s not inaccurate. But a second straight second half swoon, paired with a jump in strikeouts and a drop in walks — now beneath his career mark — are a little concerning. Again, the walks won’t matter from a 5×5 standpoint, but his breakout was spurred at least in some way by a 12.6 percent walk rate in 2014. That dipped to 8.7 percent in 2015, which is below his career mark of 9.1 percent. Keep in mind also that the career mark takes into consideration his brutal first season in the big leagues, and it’s pretty clear Dozier fell short of the mark thanks to his poor second half this season.

A big boost for Dozier did come via isolated slugging, as he set career bests in home runs, doubles (39) and triples (four). That extra-base pop might benefit an owner more in a linear weights or sabermetric style league, but from a 5×5 standpoint it’s good to see the power distributed like this, as opposed to a Joe Mauer style where it’s mostly doubles. Even though Dozier hit just .236, his .444 slugging percentage was a career best — nearly 30 points above his breakout 2014 mark.

The second half swoon isn’t new for Dozier either; it was just more pronounced in 2015. In 2014, Dozier hit .242/.340/.436 in the first half and just .244/.352/.387 in the second. The popular hypothesis was that hitting in the home run derby — at his home Target Field, no less — sapped some of his power in the second half. And whether that popular theory is poppycock or has some merit, he doesn’t have that built-in excuse for his 2015 drop off. In the first half this season, Dozier blitzed the competition to the tune of a .256/.328/.513 batting line in the first half — garnering his first All Star game bid — but slumped to a .210/.280/.359 line down the stretch, including just nine second half homers and 23 extra-base hits after the Midsummer Classic. He had 26 doubles alone in the first half (as well as 19 home runs and three triples besides).

One possible theory for Dozier’s second half slip up was playing injured. St. Paul Pioneer Press beat reporter Mike Berardino reported after the season that Dozier had been playing with a hip injury that would not require surgery in the offseason. For a hitter who relies almost exclusively on fly balls — No. 9 among 141 qualified hitters with a 44.1% flyball rate — for production, Dozier being bothered by a hip could stand as a big reason why his production tailed off so sharply.

Another possible reason is this: check out his BABIPs from the second half last year:

July – .209
August – .260
Sept./Oct. – .222

Our numbers say those were three of his four worst months for hard-hit rate last year, and three of his four worst for hitting line drives as well. That leaves me with one of two theories: A. he really was hurt and that is reflected in his hard hit rate, as his rotation at the plate was hampered by the hip or B. this is the kind of fluctuation a player can have when he’s as fly ball reliant as Dozier is.

I tend to lean toward A. and believe that he can rebound moving into next season, but if you draft him and are worried about another second half swoon, you can probably easily shop him at the break for pretty good value. For me, there isn’t enough of a sampling to indicate he’s just going to be this type of player — he’s only played two full seasons and most of another — and I think you can do a LOT worse at second base.