Don’t Sweat the Strikeouts
George Springer has a lot of strikeouts this year, but that is as advertised. Springer struck out about 30 percent of the time in Double-A and 25 percent of the time in Triple-A over the last few seasons. He may never hit appreciably better than the .231 he is hitting this season, but with 20 home runs in less than half a season of plate appearances and a history of stolen bases in the minors that his five big-league steals do not live up to, fantasy owners will gladly make the tradeoff.
It turns out that Springer is not the only one. Teammate Jon Singleton got the call midseason in part because he was able to cut his strikeout rate from over 30 percent in 2013 to about 22 percent this season in the minors, but he has struck out in more than a third of his major league plate appearances. More recently, call-ups Javier Baez and Zach Walters have injected lineups with a combined 16 home runs in 240 plate appearances, but they have struck out 41 (!) and 35 percent of the time, respectively.
I usually am pretty terrified of high strikeout rates, even if they are accompanied by walk rates over 10 percent as they are with both Springer and Singleton. It isn’t because of the lower batting averages in roto formats, either. To me, it is an indication of bust potential. Former Baseball America No. 3 overall prospect Brandon Wood exemplifies my fears on that front.
I also recognize that strikeouts are up across baseball, so perhaps I shouldn’t be so stressed by the inflated totals of some of the major power prospects. When you compare the strikeout rate of rookie hitters and all hitters from 2002 to 2014, you can see that the increase in strikeouts for rookies has run parallel to the increase in strikeouts for all batters. Rookies strike out more often than veterans, but that gap has not widened over the last decade or so.
Strikeout rates over 30 percent are still clearly on the high side, even for rookies, but even though those rates are unprecedented, they are not far removed from several successful rookies since 2002. Mark Reynolds struck out 31 percent of the time as a rookie, and he has 20 or more home runs in seven consecutive seasons. Pedro Alvarez struck out 31 percent of the time as a rookie, and he hit 30-plus homers the previous two seasons. Giancarlo Stanton struck out 31 percent of the time as a rookie, and he may be the best hitter on the planet. And Stanton has even reined in his strikeout rate in the subsequent seasons. His 27 percent this season would be a career low.
| Highest Rookie K%, 2002-2014, Min. 300 PA | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Season | PA | K% |
| Jon Singleton | 2014 | 312 | 34.9% |
| George Springer | 2014 | 345 | 33.0% |
| Kirk Nieuwenhuis | 2012 | 314 | 31.2% |
| Mark Reynolds | 2007 | 414 | 31.2% |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 2010 | 396 | 31.1% |
| Oswaldo Arcia | 2013 | 378 | 31.0% |
| Ian Stewart | 2008 | 304 | 30.9% |
| Pedro Alvarez | 2010 | 386 | 30.8% |
I’m not sure the strikeouts will ever go away for Springer and Baez, and maybe not even for Singleton, but I think the reasonable course of action is to draft them anyway next season. The former two will provide plenty of counting stats to counterbalance a low batting average, and Singleton walks enough to add a decent runs total to his solid home run and RBI numbers.
Scott Spratt is a fantasy sports writer for FanGraphs and Pro Football Focus. He is a Sloan Sports Conference Research Paper Competition and FSWA award winner. Feel free to ask him questions on Twitter – @Scott_Spratt
On top of strikeouts being up league wide, BA is way down. Five years ago, a .250 hitter was a major drag on your team BA.
Adam Dunn was such a polarizing player because of the low BA. In his prime he was generally ranked as a top 25 OF/top 50-75 hitter. Now we have Nelson Cruz putting up a Dunn-like season and he is currently the 20th rank hitter according to ESPN player rater.
Right, but Stanton, Alvarez and Reynolds all carried a BB% of at least 9% during their rookie seasons. Baez sits at about half of that rate currently. I don’t always sweat the strikeouts, but I do sweat the inability to get on base
This! This! This! Strikeouts are fine, but another sustainable method of reaching base is more and more necessary as the strikeout rates climb.
It is the primary reason why I believe Chris Davis is not a fantasy asset or even major league regular. With his roughly 30% strikeout rate, he should be sporting a walk rate around 15% to 18% to be of any regular use to a fantasy or major league team.
Not sure if this is satire, but Davis has what is essentially the perfect hitting profile. Tons of line drives and lots of flyballs, with very few popups. Unless you think a .237 BABIP is typical for a hitter with a 25% LD rate (career 23.9%, so this isn’t an anomaly), or an 11.7% walk rate is an abomination, Davis will rebound.
Perhaps not to 2013 levels, but a .265 average and 40 HR wouldn’t surprise me at all in 2015. With him likely gaining 3B eligibility in most leagues next season, he should be targeted by pretty much everyone, considering he won’t cost anywhere near what he did this season.
It is not satire. You make a fair point about his LD rate, but even with his XBABIP of around .310 so far this year, he’d only be hitting .237 (according to a recent post by Daniel Schwartz). That coupled with the 20 to 25 HR he has this year and I do not expect that to balloon back up to 50 like it was last year, no thanks.
Unless you’re playing an OBP league or the hitter in question is supposed to provide a high run total, you don’t really want walks from your fantasy hitters.
The caveat is if you own a stack, in which case walks mean more ab’s/opportunities for everyone.
Can we sweat the fact that Baez is trying to hit a 5-run HR every swing? And falling out of his shoes swinging and missing?
It isn’t a pure K-rate issue with him. Actually LOOK at some of his at-bats. They are just…. downright terrible.