Don’t Get Fooled: Finishing Strong in Points Leagues

Sometimes the standings can play tricks on you. You see your team in first, but it’s an optical illusion. You are in seventh but are sure you have the best team.

In my experience, this has always been the domain of match-up leagues, but in my first go-round with the ottoneu FanGraphs Points Leagues, I am learning that I was missing a use case – and now I am hoping to take advantage to secure a championship with a very simple step.

Check out the standings (pre-9/10 games) for this FanGraphs Staff league.

Team	Points	P/G	P/IP
My other car is a Cistulli	15318.2	5.5	4.5
Clown Meat	15101.7	5.3	4.6
She’s Just Not That Shin-Soo Choo	14957.2	5.2	5.0
Ben’s	14768.0	5.2	4.7
PEREZ-ence	14759.8	5.0	5.1
Edmonton Trappers	14335.9	4.7	5.3
Hartford Whalers	14182.7	5.1	5.5
The Fluffy Bunnies	13958.9	5.0	5.0
The Poopsites	13274.7	5.1	4.7
The Abundant Dongs	13173.4	4.9	4.9
The Razor Shines	12900.6	5.2	4.2
The Houston Babies	12664.0	4.5	5.2

That’s Brandon Warne sitting atop the table with a lead of more than 200 points. And that is Steve Slowinski sitting in seventh despite having the best combined Pts/G and Pts/IP stats.

And yet I am here to tell you that I am the favorite to win this thing.

Here is another table:

Team	C	1B	2B	SS	MI	3B	OF	Util	IP
The Abundant Dongs	187	154	157	155	153	130	746	133	1288.1
The Fluffy Bunnies	187	162	161	136	158	161	744	135	1395.1
Hartford Whalers	148	158	152	157	142	145	723	135	1342.0
The Razor Shines	171	160	161	155	154	156	747	143	1262.2
The Poopsites	187	145	149	158	150	161	706	153	1286.1
She’s Just Not That Shin-Soo Choo	157	163	161	155	153	157	800	162	1486.0
My other car is a Cistulli	182	160	155	162	163	164	751	162	1606.2
Ben’s	187	153	162	160	163	156	789	161	1480.0
PEREZ-ence	187	157	161	154	162	154	761	164	1479.2
Edmonton Trappers	185	125	162	167	150	154	770	160	1474.0
Clown Meat	164	163	162	167	158	163	795	162	1542.2
The Houston Babies	187	146	145	95	156	155	791	154	1251.1

This one shows projected games played and innings pitched, and two things should jump out. First, a few people are well over the pace at a few positions. Most of league is close to using up their catcher eligibility. Warne is going to have to significantly slow his pitching usage in the final weeks. On the other hand, some folks are well on their way to leaving playing time on the table. Slowinski’s stellar pitching staff, the one accruing a league-high 5.5 points per inning pitched, is on pace to come up 150 innings short of the max.

So what happens when you account for this? Let’s take a total number of expected games played by team, capping each team at 162 per position (or 810 for OF) and an expected number of innings pitched, capping each team at 1500 IP, and assume that everyone maintains their current Pts/G and Pts/IP rates. Then let’s project end of year standings:

Team	Games	IP	P/G	P/IP	Off Pts	P Pts	Total Pts	Rank
She’s Just Not That Shin-Soo Choo	1907	1486	5.2	5	9916.4	7430	17346.4	1
Clown Meat	1925	1500	5.3	4.6	10202.5	6900	17102.5	2
My other car is a Cistulli	1876	1500	5.5	4.5	10318	6750	17068	3
PEREZ-ence	1873	1479.2	5	5.1	9365	7543.92	16908.92	4
Ben’s	1905	1480	5.2	4.7	9906	6956	16862	5
Edmonton Trappers	1845	1474	4.7	5.3	8671.5	7812.2	16483.7	6
Hartford Whalers	1760	1342	5.1	5.5	8976	7381	16357	7
The Fluffy Bunnies	1819	1395.1	5	5	9095	6975.5	16070.5	8
The Poopsites	1784	1286.1	5.1	4.7	9098.4	6044.67	15143.07	9
The Abundant Dongs	1790	1288.1	4.9	4.9	8771	6311.69	15082.69	10
The Razor Shines	1838	1262.2	5.2	4.2	9557.6	5301.24	14858.84	11
The Houston Babies	1804	1251.1	4.5	5.2	8118	6505.72	14623.72	12

That isn’t a ton of movement…but there is a change at the top. The brilliant owner of She’s Just Not that Shin-Soo Choo has clearly positioned himself to leapfrog the teams ahead of him and charge to a victory in the inaugural year of this league! We should congratulate him heartily (I’ll accept any congrats via comment)!

Of course these standings have knocked down anyone who was using up games and innings too fast, but what if we assume that some teams will speed up their player usage down the stretch and make up some of the missing games/innings?

Let’s assume that any team can make up a two games per week, per position. Once a week their starter doesn’t have a game; once a week their starter just gets a day off; and on both days they put in a sub they otherwise wouldn’t (this probably overestimates the number of games that can be made up. Let’s further assume that because of the two catcher spots, people can make up 20 games at catcher down the stretch. For the outfield, let’s figure you can make up 30 games across the five spots. By using more starting pitchers, they can tag on two starts a week (so about 40 innings) they otherwise wouldn’t have had. And just to make things easy, we’ll also assume that using all these backups doesn’t hurt their Pts/G or Pts/IP. Our new standings:

Team	Games	IP	P/G	P/IP	Off Pts	P Pts	Total Pts	Rank
She’s Just Not That Shin-Soo Choo	1940	1500	5.2	5	10088	7500	17588	1
My other car is a Cistulli	1934	1500	5.5	4.5	10637	6750	17387	2
PEREZ-ence	1940	1500	5	5.1	9700	7650	17350	3
Clown Meat	1944	1500	5.3	4.6	10303.2	6900	17203.2	4
Ben’s	1941	1500	5.2	4.7	10093.2	7050	17143.2	5
Hartford Whalers	1837	1382	5.1	5.5	9368.7	7601	16969.7	6
Edmonton Trappers	1895	1500	4.7	5.3	8906.5	7950	16856.5	7
The Fluffy Bunnies	1867	1435.1	5	5	9335	7175.5	16510.5	8
The Poopsites	1842	1326.1	5.1	4.7	9394.2	6232.67	15626.87	9
The Abundant Dongs	1855	1328.1	4.9	4.9	9089.5	6507.69	15597.19	10
The Razor Shines	1895	1302.1	5.2	4.2	9854	5468.82	15322.82	11
The Houston Babies	1859	1291.1	4.5	5.2	8365.5	6713.72	15079.22	12

Thankfully, our hero in this tale remains in first, but poor Cody Wiewandt falls from a solid second place finish, to a spot on the outside looking in.

So which of these standings is accurate? Who knows! If I were a betting man, I’d put my money on something closer to the one with my team in first and Cody’s in second, mostly because while I think teams will try to fill out more games and innings down the stretch, going deeper into their 40-man rosters will result in fewer points per appearance.

But the important note here is this: don’t let the standings fool you. First isn’t always first and best isn’t always best. Make sure you fill out your innings and games. Slowinski may have built the best team at the top, but even in my last set of standings, he is leaving 118 innings on the table, and even 118 so-so innings (let’s say 5.0 instead of his current 5.5) would be enough to move him up to 2nd instead of 6th.

We’re down to the final three weeks of the season and now is the time to put the pedal to the metal in points leagues. Don’t leave games unclaimed. Tonight, even with the limited games, I made sure to fill out my lineup, and I will continue to do that every day the rest of the way. Albert Pujols get’s a day off? Throw a backup in there and take what you can get.

Maybe Slowinski will find a way to get those innings filled out and pull off a miraculous run to the title, but somewhere, in some league, someone will lose out because they didn’t use the full 162 games and 1500 innings. Don’t let it be you.