Deep League AL SP Weekend Streamers

With just about a week left in the season, the ratios are pretty much solidified and there’s much less concern over one of those three inning, seven run debacles ruining your stats. It is likely, however, that an extra win and/or five strikeouts could gain you a point. So deep leaguers in need of some counting stats without as much regard for their ratios should consider these weekend probables.

Saturday 9/20

T.J. House @ MIN

The 24-year-old first appeared on the virtual pages of FanGraphs all the way back in 2009 when he was ranked as the seventh best Indians prospect. He disappeared from our prospect lists ever since that year and has had limited coverage since. His minor league career has been unremarkable, but his skill set is precisely the type that gets undervalued. He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher with excellent control and almost perfectly average strikeout ability. These types aren’t typically lauded by prospectors or even fantasy owners, but get the job done in unexciting fashion. It’s a skill set that the likes of Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe rode to excellent careers. The Twins rank 10th in the American League in wOBA versus southpaws and makes for a good matchup.

Trevor May vs CLE

Not surprisingly, May has been rather inconsistent through seven starts with the Twins, having allowed as many as eight runs in a start, but also allowing just two or three runs in four of them. And while control was the biggest question mark, he has only had issues in three starts and his overall strike percentage is only marginally below the league average. He’s striking out batters with a fantastic changeup, while both his curve ball and slider have been decent enough. Aside from swings and misses, the changeup has also induced a ton of grounders, making it a true elite pitch. The Indians offense has been pretty good this year, ranking fourth in the AL in wOBA and fifth in walk rate. It’s not a great matchup, but the upside is there for a strong performance.

Drew Pomeranz vs PHI

With Jason Hammel set to miss his Saturday start, Pomeranz has been tabbed to make the spot start. In nine starts this season, Pomeranz has posted strong peripherals and a 3.40 xFIP. The southpaw has only completed six innings in two of his starts, so a win could be hard to come by. A quick glance at his pitch SwStk% marks yields little to get excited over. However, while he hasn’t induced a whole lot of swinging strikes, his looking strike rate has generally been well above the league average throughout his short career. That makes sense, of course, because he’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher, relying on a curve ball to mix with a low 90s fastball. The curve sports the highest “watch” rate (take rate inside the strike zone) among all pitch types. Combined with a ground ball tilt, good ball park and defensive support, you have yourself a nifty little pitcher. And the Phillies stink against lefties, having posted a .303 wOBA against them, which ranks 12th in the NL.

Chris Capuano vs TOR

After opening the season in the Red Sox bullpen, the Yankees picked him up in a trade from the Rockies and he returned to the starting rotation, where he has pitched for the majority of his career. While his results haven’t been very strong over 10 starts (4.56 ERA), he has posted strong peripherals and a 3.64 xFIP. Slightly inflated BABIP and HR/FB rate marks are the cause of his ERA/xFIP discrepancy. Even at age 36, Capuano still has strikeout ability, as he has struck out 48 batters in 53.1 innings as a starter this year. A robust 26.7% line drive rate suggests that the .315 BABIP isn’t bad luck at all and could be cause for concern. Or, we could chalk it up to a relatively small sample of 85.0 innings and assume that rate will regress. The Blue Jays are a power-happy team and this matchup is no walk in the park. But Capuano has pitched better than his ERA suggests and is worth consideration.

Sunday 9/21

Nate Karns vs CHW

Last Friday, Karns made his 2014 Rays debut as a member of the rotation after Drew Smyly hit his innings limit. Seven shutout innings against the powerful Blue Jays offense surely made people take notice. Karns displayed good velocity on his fastball, but threw it quite often, at a rate that is unlikely to remain that high. Throwing his fastball less will benefit his strikeout rate, though the curve ball and changeup he has thrown over his 19.0 big league innings have been nothing special in terms of generating swings and misses. Instead, Karns induced a high rate of looking strikes in that first start, likely owing to that curve ball. The White Sox offense sits middle of the pack in wOBA this year against righties, but they don’t walk often and rank second in the league in strikeout rate. Pitching at home, it’s a pretty good matchup for Karns.