Danny Salazar is Back

I wasn’t a fan of Danny Salazar heading into the season. In fact, I foolishly made the bold prediction that Jaime Garcia would outearn him. HA! It wasn’t due to doubts about the quality of his stuff, obviously. It was concerns about the health of his arm paired with a walk rate that spiked in 2016. And I was right to question his health, though last year it was his elbow which worried me, this time he landed on the DL for his shoulder. And before hitting the DL, his ERA swelled to 5.40. But after missing over a month and a half, Salazar has returned to make five starts and has absolutely dominated like a completely new man. Or maybe just the man we always dreamed he could be.

Let’s compare all the relevant stats and metrics from the before (first 10 starts) and after (last five starts) injury periods:

We can see from his pitch mix that he has pretty dramatically changed his gameplan. He has upped both his fastball and slider usage at the expense of his changeup. Eno compared Salazar’s pitches earlier this month and confirmed that his changeup is indeed his best pitch, so this is a curious switch. And pretty amazing that what looks to be a negative has actually resulted in such a dominant run. The things is, all his pitches, except his sinker, have induced SwStk% marks above 13.8%! That’s incredible, since one of those pitches is his four-seamer, which doesn’t normally yield a double digit SwStk%.

Aside from the shift in pitch mix, we could have also assumed a potential velocity bump if his shoulder issues had been robbing him of some oomph before hitting the DL. But that hasn’t been the case as his velocity has been virtually unchanged.

Batters hit line drives all over the place against Salazar before his injury, but since, he has traded those liners for grounders and flies. That’s obviously a huge skill fix and you’ll see the dramatic effect it had on his BABIP in the next table. He has also cut his Hard% by a third and that 19.7% is far below the current MLB leader in the metric. While it’s not sustainable, he’s clearly doing something right to throttle quality contact.

Furthermore, he’s throwing a boatload more strikes. What a shock to learn that simply throwing more strikes typically yields better results! And although his SwStk% was already elite before his injury, he has taken that mark even higher.

Even during a period of major struggles, at least from a results perspective, Salazar was still a strikeout machine. But in his last five starts, he has been other-worldly. And remember those control issues? They have apparently become a thing of the past. Since returning, his walk rate is right back to his pre-2016 days. I would bet it was all his arm issues that led to the loss of control since last year, but perhaps now he is finally healthy.

You could see how that inflated line drive rate pushed his BABIP up to an insanely high level before the injury, and it’s fallen by more than 100 points since returning. Because of that low BABIP and the microscopic HR/FB rate, he has been able to strand nearly 86% of baserunners. None of those three rates are sustainable in the long-term, of course, but it paints a clearer picture of how he has been able to manage a 1.39 ERA, outside just his K%-BB%. You may notice that his pre-injury SIERA was still a respectable 3.74, suggesting it was more bad fortune than bad pitching. But SIERA fails to account for line drive rate, which argues the .366 BABIP was deserved.

We can’t be sure exactly how much of a rule health has played a role in Salazar’s performance, both before the injury and now after. We don’t know when his shoulder started barking and if that robbed him of both control and command (perhaps the explanation for the high LD% and BABIP?). What we do know is that Salazar’s stuff was never in question and now everything is coming together. He remains a health risk moving forward, but for now, he’s a top tier starter.