Daily Starters – Tuesday, September 11th

Obviously, there are flaws for any SPs who are readily available for streaming, but today’s batch seems to be particularly volatile. I’m always down for a pitcher who can deliver that gem of 7+ innings with a  bunch of strikeouts, but when the downside is a sub-5 inning nightmare, you have to carefully calculate if you can take on the risk.

(I’ll be citing the FantasyPros roster rates)

Tanner Roark – WAS at PHI (47%)

The Cards hit Roark for his worst start in the second half last time out, but even with the 5 IP/6 ER dud, he still has a 2.91 ERA in 55.7 IP since the break. Roark has two quality starts, a dud (4.3 IP/6 ER), and a rain-shortened outing that had started well (3 IP/0 ER) against the Phillies this year. The Phillies have been a middling offense against righties since the break, sitting 18th in wOBA at .317 with a 23% K rate.

Joe Musgrove – PIT at STL (25%)

Musgrove is a pair of bumpy starts from a truly huge second half, but he’s still been awesome with a 3.40 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 50.3 IP. The Cardinals did deliver one of those starts (6 IP/5 ER), but I’m still taking a shot on him here. He rebounded with a gem against a strong Cincinnati offense (6.3 IP/2 ER, 8 K) his last time out. I like the 14% swinging strike rate in his last five starts, too.

Shane Bieber – CLE at TB (37%)

Bieber has been a hit machine this year (10.6 H/9) so despite a 20% K-BB rate, you might be careful getting too invested in his 3.13 FIP. That said, he’s delivered a more palatable 4.28 ERA in his last seven starts, yielding no more than 4 ER in any of them, though the 9.9 H/9 is still too high. He had one bad inning against the Rays two starts ago, going five scoreless innings before a 4-run sixth during which he got just one out.

Nick Pivetta – PHI v. WAS (35%)

Nick Pivolatile can make or break your week early. Check out his last 10 Game Scores: 58, 41, 50, 63, 67, 67, 25, 41, 56, and 50 with 59 strikeouts in the 48.7 IP of work. Washington has ripped him this year with 15 ER in 8.7 IP, but I still might take this chance.

Luis Castillo – CIN v. LAD (53%)

At least only two of the five runs against San Diego were earned, but HRs continue to be his biggest issue (3 v. SD). He can shut down any team when he keeps the ball in the yard, but I’m reluctant to trust him to do that against a solid Dodgers offense so I’m not doing this in anything but deep leagues or desperate situations. The Dodgers are ninth in ISO against righties in the last month (.183).

Marco Gonzales – SEA v. SD (33%)

Gonzales should be returning from the DL in time for this start, but stay tuned just in case. His ERA has ballooned in the last two months thanks to four horrific outings, three of which have come against strong teams (at NYY, at BOS, v. HOU) and the other against a divisional rival (at TEX). The Padres are nothing like those teams and thus I’m willing to run him out, even coming off the DL. He has an ERA that is 2.20 runs better against sub-.500 teams at 3.49 with a 17% K-BB rate.

Tyler Glasnow – TB v. CLE (18%)

Look, I’m not a huge Glasnow guy, but I’m not going to pretend that his 0.7 IP/7 ER nightmare at TOR last time out justifies my skepticism about him any more than the 3.23 ERA in his first 30.7 IP with TB makes me believe in him. Cleveland has been 19th in wOBA against righties in the second half and their 7.6% walk rate is 18th so perhaps they won’t be able to take advantage of Glasnow’s biggest weakness.

Sonny Gray – NYY at MIN (29%)

Gray has been relegated to a long relief role of late, but he has posted a 1.83 ERA in his last 19.7 IP, albeit with a 1.32 WHIP. His one start during the run was a 6.3 IP scoreless gem at Baltimore during a doubleheader so perhaps he can come close to something like that against a Twins team that has sputtered to a meager .314 wOBA against righties in the second half.

Framber Valdez – HOU at DET (13%)

Valdez is a two-pitch lefty who has a 1.37 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through his first 19.7 IP, but the 6% K-BB suggests some caution in trusting him. I love the 71% groundball rate and he’s clearly inducing lots of weak, playable contact, but I’m seeing more of a 5-6 IP/3-4 ER outing here as he walks too many and doesn’t miss enough bats.

Alex Cobb – BAL v. OAK (18%)

I mentioned Cobb in this second half surger piece a while back and he promptly allowed 5 ER the very next day. He did bounce back with a 6 IP/1 ER outing at Seattle, but I’m nervous using him against the Oakland offense when there are virtually no strikeouts to fall back on, either.

Andrew Suarez – SF v. ATL (8%)  

The tough part with Suarez is that when he’s off, he gets clobbered. Here are his earned run counts the last seven games: 8, 3, 0, 5, 0, 0, and 5. The Braves are 7th in wOBA (.330) against lefties since the break and 2nd in the last month (.348).