Daily Starters – Friday, September 7th

I’m highlighting pitchers owned in 20% or few leagues at FanTrax.com

Daniel Norris (15%) vs Cardinals

Where did the 25-year-old’s lefty’s 11.4 K/9 come from? And the 4.6 BB/9? He is pulling a Robbie Ray (12.0 K/9, 4.8 BB/9) with an 89-mph average fastball.

After rooting around on his player pages, he’s basically a two-pitch pitcher, fastball and slider. Both pitches produce an above average amount of swings-and-misses and flyballs. The flyballs have led to a high number of home runs (1.8 HR/9) hence the inflated 5.49 ERA.

Most of the damage was done before going on the DL (groin surgery). In his one start since returning, he struck out seven Yankees and walked only one batter in 4.1 innings. In the start, his fastball was up to 91 mph.

For owners digging for strikeouts, they should be all in with Norris. The walks still worry me some and owners who need to control their rate stats may want to stay way to see another start. He may be a sneaky recommendation as the season winds down.

Joe Ross (13%) vs Cubs

Hell no. There is no way I’m starting the 25-year-old righty in his first start back from Tommy John surgery. While I’m usually more inclined than most owners to roll the dice on a pitcher coming off the DL, I’m not with Ross.

First, he was sitting at 91 mph in his rehab starts which is down 2-mph from rookie season.

https://twitter.com/2080adam/status/1030136701577060353

Joe Ross is through 3 innings on 45 pitches (27 strikes). F9, 4-3, BB (and SB), 6-3. According to @PNats42 radio, Ross has been sitting around 91 mph

— Erika (@UVAHooGirl) August 16, 2018

Second, he just didn’t produce against minor league hitters with just 4 K’s in 11 innings of work in AAA.

Third, there is little chance he goes far into the game limiting the chances for a Win.

Finally, he’s facing the Cubs.

I may consider him later in the month but not for this start.

Felix Pena (12%) at White Sox

If there was a “Hell Yeah” out of this group, it’s this 28-year-old righty. The White Sox are a favorable matchup with such fear hitters as Jose Rondon batting second and Matt Davidson at cleanup. Over these last few weeks, owners should be abusing this White Sox lineup.

It’s not all rainbows and unicorns for Pena as he does face Carlos Rodon. There is a chance, Rodon just goes out and shoves.

Also, Pena’s fastball velocity and therefore production has been dropping as he’s moved to the rotation.

Even with the talent drop, this matchup is by far the day’s best.

Yovani Gallardo (9%) at A’s

No. His K/9 (5.35) and ERA (5.97) are trying to be a matching couple with his BB/9 (4.23) just lagging just a bit behind. I’d rather take a gamble on Ross and there is no way I’m starting Ross.

Heath Fillmyer (7%) at Twins

The 24-year-old righty is near a twin of Gallardo. He’s striking no one out (5.6 K/9) and walking a ton (4.0 BB/9). He may seem to not be horrible with a 4.01 ERA but his ERA estimators hover around 5.00.

Now, he is facing a beatable Twins team who is starting a shaky Stephen Gonsalves. For owners chasing Wins, Fillmyer is one of the better options.

Brett Kennedy (3%) at Reds

I was really high on Kennedy considering his Triple-A production for his age but he hasn’t translated the numbers to the majors. While some of these pitchers are close, he is pulling off the matching K/9 and ERA at 5.76.

Besides the lack of strikeouts, his 2.2 HR/9 is just killing his value. He does have a small chance for a Win against limited Reds lineup so he gets the nod over some other pitchers.

Rankings

1. Felix Pena
2. Daniel Norris (K’s)
3. Heath Fillmyer (Wins)
4. Brett Kennedy (Wins)
5. Joe Ross
6. Yovani Gallardo