Daily Starters – Friday, September 7th

by
September 6, 2018

I’m highlighting pitchers owned in 20% or few leagues at FanTrax.com

Daniel Norris (15%) vs Cardinals

Where did the 25-year-old’s lefty’s 11.4 K/9 come from? And the 4.6 BB/9? He is pulling a Robbie Ray (12.0 K/9, 4.8 BB/9) with an 89-mph average fastball.

After rooting around on his player pages, he’s basically a two-pitch pitcher, fastball and slider. Both pitches produce an above average amount of swings-and-misses and flyballs. The flyballs have led to a high number of home runs (1.8 HR/9) hence the inflated 5.49 ERA.

Most of the damage was done before going on the DL (groin surgery). In his one start since returning, he struck out seven Yankees and walked only one batter in 4.1 innings. In the start, his fastball was up to 91 mph.

For owners digging for strikeouts, they should be all in with Norris. The walks still worry me some and owners who need to control their rate stats may want to stay way to see another start. He may be a sneaky recommendation as the season winds down.

Joe Ross (13%) vs Cubs

Hell no. There is no way I’m starting the 25-year-old righty in his first start back from Tommy John surgery. While I’m usually more inclined than most owners to roll the dice on a pitcher coming off the DL, I’m not with Ross.

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.

First, he was sitting at 91 mph in his rehab starts which is down 2-mph from rookie season.

https://twitter.com/2080adam/status/1030136701577060353

Second, he just didn’t produce against minor league hitters with just 4 K’s in 11 innings of work in AAA.

Third, there is little chance he goes far into the game limiting the chances for a Win.

Finally, he’s facing the Cubs.

I may consider him later in the month but not for this start.

Felix Pena (12%) at White Sox

If there was a “Hell Yeah” out of this group, it’s this 28-year-old righty. The White Sox are a favorable matchup with such fear hitters as Jose Rondon batting second and Matt Davidson at cleanup. Over these last few weeks, owners should be abusing this White Sox lineup.

It’s not all rainbows and unicorns for Pena as he does face Carlos Rodon. There is a chance, Rodon just goes out and shoves.

Also, Pena’s fastball velocity and therefore production has been dropping as he’s moved to the rotation.

Even with the talent drop, this matchup is by far the day’s best.

Yovani Gallardo (9%) at A’s

No. His K/9 (5.35) and ERA (5.97) are trying to be a matching couple with his BB/9 (4.23) just lagging just a bit behind. I’d rather take a gamble on Ross and there is no way I’m starting Ross.

Heath Fillmyer (7%) at Twins

The 24-year-old righty is near a twin of Gallardo. He’s striking no one out (5.6 K/9) and walking a ton (4.0 BB/9). He may seem to not be horrible with a 4.01 ERA but his ERA estimators hover around 5.00.

Now, he is facing a beatable Twins team who is starting a shaky Stephen Gonsalves. For owners chasing Wins, Fillmyer is one of the better options.

Brett Kennedy (3%) at Reds

I was really high on Kennedy considering his Triple-A production for his age but he hasn’t translated the numbers to the majors. While some of these pitchers are close, he is pulling off the matching K/9 and ERA at 5.76.

Besides the lack of strikeouts, his 2.2 HR/9 is just killing his value. He does have a small chance for a Win against limited Reds lineup so he gets the nod over some other pitchers.

Rankings

  1. Felix Pena
  2. Daniel Norris (K’s)
  3. Heath Fillmyer (Wins)
  4. Brett Kennedy (Wins)
  5. Joe Ross
  6. Yovani Gallardo





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

3 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
TheBabboMember since 2019
7 years ago

Worth noting that three of Kennedy’s HRA came in his first, four-inning start – he’s allowed three more over 21 innings in his following four starts. And he’s generally improved each time out, with six shutout innings at home against the Rockies last week. But yeah, strikeouts still are an issue, though the control’s been good.

0