Daily Fantasy Strategy — May 28 — For Draftstreet
Usually I riff a little on pitching. There are two reasons behind that: I love pitching and I find it easier to analyze because the pitcher, for the most part, controls most of their fate. Sure defense plays a role, but I usually look at stats that take that into account in the first place.
If there was ever a pitcher that embodies “peripherals are more important at this stage of the season,” it’s Shelby Miller. If you focus on traditional stats, Miller hasn’t been that bad. He’s racked up six wins (!) and has a 3.18 ERA. As we know, that doesn’t tell the whole story. Miller’s been very, very lucky; not just with babip, either. Miller’s wiggled out of trouble a ton, evidenced by his 87.7% LOB%. His strikeout rate has plummeted ~5% while his walk rate has increased ~5%. All in all, Miller’s k-bb% (perhaps my favorite metric) has decreased nearly 10 percentage points. Not good.
Surely you, the astute Fangraphs reader, have known for a little while that Miller’s pitching on borrowed time. If you haven’t shopped him yet, do it quickly.
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If the intro didn’t give it away, I’m targeting Shelby Miller today, weather pending. The Yankees lineup isn’t as potent as we’re used to seeing, but they’re still decent versus right handed pitching. The hitters we will be using are, anyways. Unfortunately, the weather might ruin my plan, so if it does I like the following match-ups: Brewers’ offense versus Bud Norris, Indians’ offense versus Hector Noesi, and the Dodgers’ offense versus Homer Bailey.
Speaking of Bailey, I’m still a fan. Until he can quit leaving balls over the middle though, I have no problem lining up hitters against him.
The Daily Five
Yankees stack
Jacoby Ellsbury – $6,077
Yangervis Solarte – $5,664
Mark Teixeira – $6,265
Betting against Miller, if the weather cooperates.
Khris Davis – $6,194
Davis has been swinging the bat well of late, posting a .346 wOBA in May. His strikeout rate is worrisome, but I like his upside at this price.
Bartolo Colon – $12,769
There aren’t many attractive starting pitcher options near the bottom end of the spectrum today, but I like Bartolo enough to plug him in. His underlying numbers actually haven’t been too bad, so hopefully a reversal of fortune is in order today.
If the Yankees’ game doesn’t go I like a Dodgers’ stack: Yasiel Puig ($8,674), Adrian Gonzalez ($7,009), and Andre Ethier ($5,636) are my choices.
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Landon is a senior writer at The Fantasy Fix. You can follow and interact with him on Twitter (@joneslandon).
I believe that Wei-Yen Chen pitched last night…
You’re correct. I got my days mixed up. I still like the Brew crew versus Norris today, though.
Should I send Adrian Beltre packing in return for cole hamels? in a vacuum does this seem like a good trade?
yes, but in a broom it seems like a pretty bad trade
Yeah. I’d keep Beltre, unless you just really need pitching.
if Chen was as bad as he was yesterday, then definitely stack the brewers again.
Pitching on no rest, he’ll probably be even worse.
Decisions decisions … 1B: Rizzo @ SF (Lincecum) or Cuddyer @ PHI (Hernandez) ?
Believe I’d go Rizzo here, although my Ottoneu team (shameless company plug) could use a nice day from Cuddyer. Philly has showers in the forecast. I don’t think they’re game threatening, but better to be safe and play the sure thing.
Trade Shelby for Cespedes in an OBP league? I need RBI’s and there is always plenty of streaming options. 10 team, 1300 innings pitched cap.
Yes. Make that deal right now.
Read the article. Trade Shelby Miller for Yoenis Cespedes’ little brother. Even if he doesn’t have one, trade him for his fictional upside. Hit accept before the other guy learns how to read stats that matter.
What are the chances that Joc Pederson gets called up?
Your guess is as good as mine. He still likely needs a trade – involving himself or Kemp, Crawford, or Ethier – to see meaningful at bats.
Because of that I’m not sure he’ll be relevant this season. LAD seems to have soured a bit on Kemp though, so if he’s dealt Pederson might be on his way. Crowded situation out there.
that all makes sense thanks much
So what leads you to believe Bailey couldn’t stop leaving balls over the middle tonight? In a pitchers park?
You guys missed badly on the Angels stack last night. Maybe you should lay off stacks for a few days.
I mean, yeah, I suppose he could stop tonight. If you want to bet on him to do so against the best offense in the league versus right handed pitching then that’s your choice.
And yeah, we’ll miss quite often. It is baseball after all. Weird things happen. I’ll bet on Pujols and Trout every time versus a lefty with iffy command.
The Dodgers have a better lineup than that of Colorado? I don’t think so.
Is Kazmir playable today vs Detroit? FWIW I am crushing all 6 of my pitching cats this week (epic 2 day stretch) and already am benching Bailey. I probably bench Kazmir as well since I have Greinke, Beckett Waino, Leake, Loshe and Hudson starts remaining this week, but I wanted to see if there was even a modicum of support to start Kaz.
Eh, I’m a big Kazmir fan, but with a commanding lead I’d probably sit him. Detroit’s offense scares me, so I’d probably err on the side of caution here.
Teix is out with a wrist. FYI.
Damn. I’ll probably just slide in McCann, assuming he’s in the lineup (no luck on Twitter search). Good looking out.
I’m torn on a Napoli Francisco trade for Lance Lynn. I need SP and have a plethora of 3B and 1B. Also receiving a 12th rounder giving an 18th rounder. 14 team keepers H2H. Help!
Warning: I’m terrible at evaluating trades like this because every keeper league is different. With that being said, your needs seem pretty evident. It’s an overpay in my opinion, but if you need a SP Lynn isn’t an awful option.
Bench Archer against the Jays tonight, right?
I am.
@diamondhoggers
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2014&month=14&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d
versus RHP, the Dodgers’ lineup has been better when you account for Coors.
ROS: Khris Davis or Carlos Quentin (or Oscar Taveras if he’s kept up after next week, I guess)?
Context: Head-to-head, 5 x 5 with OBP instead of BAvg. It’s a SP heavy league with 40 IP minimum, thus most successful teams keep only one active bench player. Have Belt, who was my UT, on the DL and Taveras in the NA roster slot. But have been plugging in Gattis as UT (also have Norris) and he hasn’t been playing much. Started season with Davis but dropped him for Fowler a couple weeks ago. I have best OBP in league and can take the sacrifice for the power. Just picked up Quentin (trying not to be a Brewers homer), but given how he’s always injured, should I go with Davis since I should be able to stash him on the bench if he slows down (assuming Gattis is healthy)? I’m a little concerned Davis’ recent mashing has come mostly against LPs and he’ll have rough platoon splits still.
Agree completely with you on Quentin. He’s usually good/great when in the lineup, but he’s going to go down eventually. IF – and that’s a big if – I knew Taveras would play nearly everyday upon being called up I think I’d roll with him, but those PA aren’t a given if he struggles in CF and Matheny continues to give Adams and Craig regular at-bats after he arrives. So, I guess I’d rank them: Davis > Taveras > Quentin.
Thanks, Landon. I made the move and brought Davis back. Next week I’ll have to decide what to do with Taveras if they recall him. Of course that decision could become easy if Cody Allen keeps pitching is way out of a possible closer role.