Daily Fantasy Strategy — May 23 — For Draftstreet
Another Friday is upon us. On Wednesday, we talked a little about Sean Doolittle. Today, let’s focus on C.J. Wilson, who happens to be pitching tonight.
Wilson has often been labeled: inconsistent. Maybe he’s been a little inconsistent at times, but that happens to everyone. Since 2010, though, Wilson has been the 15th best pitcher in the major leagues according to WAR. If you prefer RA9-WAR, he’s been the 13th best pitcher. Granted, WAR isn’t of much use in fantasy leagues, but humor me. Without looking, would you have guessed Wilson was essentially James Shields’ equal during that timeframe? I wouldn’t have. I also wouldn’t have placed him above Gio Gonzalez, Mat Latos, or Matt Cain, but there he is.
The past few years, the only qualm anyone has been able to have with Wilson has been the amount of free passes he’s given out. Well, he’s remedied that somewhat in 2014. His walks are down a little; the lowest they’ve been since 2011. His strikeout rate is also the highest it’s ever been as a starter. And so his his ground-ball percentage. Keep it rolling, sir.
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Probables Chart
Today we’re blessed with ample match-ups that are seemingly ripe for offensive production. Hector Noesi is on the mound. So is Kyle Gibson, who’s sporting a nifty little 4.87 xFIP and better starter missing bats very soon. Scott Baker is also toeing the rubber today. He’ll do so against Detroit. That’s a tough proposition for anyone, but for Scott Baker – at least 2013 – 2014 Baker – it seems like a death sentence. Baker has only thrown 20.1 innings at the major league level in the past seasons, but he’s done so while missing literally no bats. The Tigers’ offense has the second lowest strikeout rate in the majors. And they pack a wallop. This can’t end well (he’ll probably throw a complete game shutout, now that I’ve written that).
The Daily Five
Yankees stack
Brett Gardner – $7,431
Jacoby Ellsbury – $6,224
Mark Teixeira – $7,643
All three are going against Noesi. All three will have a significant platoon advantage. And the game is taking place in a homer friendly park that is forecasted for nice weather.
Giancarlo Stanton – $8,884
Stanton’s doesn’t need an introduction, but I’ll give ya something anyways. He mashes home runs. Marco Estrada gives up home runs. He’s one of the best hitters in the game, and he costs less than $9,000.
Edwin Jackson – $14,639
Jekyll and Hyde. I’m writing this without 100% confidence. I’ll never be able to quit Jackson. For today, I’m betting on him for two reasons: the Padres lineup’s overall badness and Petco Park. Come on EJ.
If you’re hesitant on Jackson, understandably, I also like Jordan Zimmermann a lot. He’s cost you just $16,905.
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Landon is a senior writer at The Fantasy Fix. You can follow and interact with him on Twitter (@joneslandon).
Like the Jackson and Det stack call. Stanton however is 0-4 vs Estrada with 4 K’s.
I usually don’t pay much attention to batter/pitcher history. I’ve found that it’s talked me out of some very nice plays, so I usually just prefer to use platoon splits, etc.
4 AB’s against a pitcher is too small anyways. If and when I look at BvP match-ups I look for more history than that, usually 20+ ab’s. And even that isn’t very reliable for predicting outcomes.