Daily Fantasy Strategy – 8/8 – For Draftstreet

Yesterday we discussed the impact multi-homer games can have on a fantasy team. And then Leony Martin and Elvis Andrus went on to tear the house down, stealing three bases a piece off of Tommy Hanson and the Los Angeles Angels.

Multi-steal games are just as common as multi-homer games, which is a little odd considering there have been half as many steals as homers this year. However, steals are spread over a smaller pool than are home runs. There’s also the presence of guys like Hanson who change the stolen base environment far more dramatically than any pitcher could the home run environment. Basically, home runs are distributed more evenly over all games than steals are.

Not surprisingly, the impact of multi-steal games isn’t as large as multi-homer games, in real or fantasy terms. The table below shows the differences between multi-home run games and multi-stolen base games in 2013.

By the way, apologies (I guess) to any readers who will hate the inclusion of day games in the Daily Five. However, there are only three evening games tonight. Beyond that, as I mentioned to a commenter yesterday, these articles go up at 10:15, so it’s not as if there would be any more certainty with night game line-ups and weather. For full schedule days I will try to cap it at one afternoon player, but Thursdays will always include day games due to the light schedule.

The Daily Five
Gerrit Cole – $12,847
We’re thin on bargains for starters today, especially since Tyler Chatwood has been scratched from his start against the Mets. Instead, we’re going to have to spend on pitching and make up for it with discounts elsewhere. I might try to budget around Jose Fernandez, but rather than recommend a $19k pitcher, I’ll suggest giving his opponent, Gerrit Cole a look. You may have heard the Marlins offense is one of the worst in recent decades, plus Cole seems to be figuring the whole strikeout thing out in his past two starts.

Alex Gordon – $5,995
I still can’t figure out for the life of me why DraftStreet’s pricing engine, usually a very smart and intuitive machine, continues to underprice Alex Gordon against lefties. He doesn’t show platoon splits – he’s been better against southpaws in 2013 and 2012 was really his only “platoon” year. I realize his wRC+ on the season in just 100 but it’s not as if Jon Lester is a pitcher to avoid in daily formats. I’ll take the discount.

Nate Schierholtz – $7,691
Ethan Martin strkes a lot of guys out. But that’s about it. He walks a lot of hitters and had an ERA over four in Triple-A, and he wasn’t dominant in the minors at any point. Schierholtz crushes righties (136 wRC+), strikes out far less against them (16.1%) and all 14 of his home runs have come against them. There also happens to be a 10MPH wind blowing out at Citizens Bank Park.

Jonny Gomes – $6,841
Let’s just say I’m not confident that Bruce Chen is an ace, and there might be some correction coming here. Gomes has a similar story to Schierholtz with the splits except that he walks and strikes out a lot more, potentially lowering his floor. But we’re limited today, so I’ll recommend Gomes for what feels like the hundredth time this season.

Matt Carpenter – $7,182
It’s a small sample (254 plate appearances) but Matt Carpenter sure appears to be split-proof, posting a 122 wRC+ against lefties (134 against righties). Ryu is a nice pitcher but our slate is pretty thin and I couldn’t very well recommend another outfielder.

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