Daily Fantasy Strategy – 6/7/13 – For Draftstreet

The platoon advantage is a well established concept. And it’s one of the most important factors, if not the most important factor, when picking hitters in daily fantasy contests. When I pick hitters, I start at the bottom of the list at each position and scroll up until I find a hitter that is facing a pitcher of the opposite handedness who also happens to not be very good.

The problem with this strategy is that not all hitters have a normal platoon split, and others have about the same level of success against both LHP and RHP. The other issue is with switch hitters. Every day I have to look up a switch hitter’s splits from each side.

Below are two charts I’ve created to make this process easier. The first shows the players who are either better against pitchers who throw from the same side from which they hit or players who have roughly equal success against pitchers of either handedness. The second shows the splits for switch hitters.

The sample includes all hitters with 300+ PA against both LHP and RHP since 2011. I used wOBA to compare the splits.

The Daily Five

James Shields, $16,292

This is your bi-weekly reminder to spend big on pitchers. They score more points, so you want to spend more on quality pitchers to give yourself the best chance at having one of the highest point scorers. Of the expensive starters today, Shields has the best matchup against Houston with maybe the exception of Matt Harvey against the Marlins. But I’m going with Shields because I like Harvey’s opponent.

Jose Fernandez, $11,899

And Harvey’s opponent is Mr. Fernandez. The kid impressed in his first two starts of the season but struggled in his next few starts. But when the calendar turned to May, he showed improvement. His xFIP improved from 3.84 in March to 3.60 in May, and his K% jumped 1.6% and his BB% fell 1.5%. And he looked great in the first start of June when he held the Mets scoreless with eight strikeouts while allowing just four base runners over seven innings. He’ll face those very same Mets today who are 26th in the league in wRC+.

Alberto Callaspo, $6,132

Callaspo is a swtich hitter who appears in the second list above. He has been quite a bit better against LHP the last few years, and he’ll face one today in Boston, Felix Doubront.

Alex Gordon, $7,457

This is a good opportunity to remind everyone that it’s not a great idea to worry about streaks too much in daily contests. Sure, Gordon is hitting just .184 over the last 14 days, but he has a .379 wOBA against RHP over the last two-plus years. Trust the larger sample size, and start Gordon in a good macthup against bad right-hander Jordan Lyles.

Jedd Gyorko, $6,181

This seems like one of the bargains of the day. Draftstreet is really good about setting prices daily and not letting bargains slip through the cracks. They’re obviously aware of the platoon advantage, and they adjust prices accordingly. They’re also very aware of the quality of the opposing pitcher. But I think they missed this one. Gyorko is only the 15th most expensive 2B despite the fact that he has a favorable platoon matchup against LHP Jorge de la Rosa. And it’s in Colorado. The only thing I can figure is that the Draftstreet pricers see de la Rosa’s 3.10 ERA and assume he is a quality opponent. But I see his 4.52 SIERA and his below average K% and BB% and I know that he’s not a quality opponent. Gyorko’s teammate, Everth Cabrera, is also a nice bargain at SS for $5,495.

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