Daily Fantasy Strategy – 6/12 – For Draftstreet

What do you do when the signs point in different directions? In daily leagues, this can be a huge question. Luckily for Wednesday, there are ample options available, but what about on days where there aren’t?

Today provides a good example of these clashing signals that we have to make a decision from. Case in point:

At game time tomorrow, the temperature in Kansas City is expected to be about 89-degrees, which can significantly impact run scoring in a positive way. In addition, they are anticipating an 18 MPH wind out to right field, a ridiculously helpful boost for hitters, especially lefties.

But Justin Verlander and James Shields are on the mound. You might remember Justin Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball over the past five years or so, and despite a 3.71 ERA he also has a 2.57 FIP and 3.03 xFIP. It’s hard to ever bet against him. Shields, meanwhile, has a 2.81 ERA backed up by a 3.22 FIP and 3.41 xFIP.

The Royals help out in this particular instance because they don’t hit well. While I’d still hesitate to start Verlander in such an environment in a daily pick ‘em, he’s un-benchable in any other format. Shields, however, doesn’t command quite that level of respect, even though he’s done an excellent job supressing lefty power this year.

These kind of set-ups come down to gut decisions on the part of the player. When I only have to recommend five players, I can just avoid the game altogether, but you might not be able to. What do you, the player, use as a deciding factor here? I’m interested to hear. Personally, I’d avoid either starter and only maybe gamble on a Tiger lefty thanks to the wind, but I wouldn’t bet the house on Shields getting rocked.

The Daily Five

Patrick Corbin – $15,736
The Corbin decision is far easier. He’s a very good pitcher (1.98 ERA, 3.10 FIP, though with a 3.82 xFIP thanks to some HR/FB friendliness), he’s facing a ho-hum offense in the Dodgers (.305 wOBA, 1.12 ISO) that may be missing some players after Tuesday night’s scrum, and he’s set up in a friendly environment (low-60s temperature with just a breeze out to right). Corbin shut out the Dodgers over six when he faced them earlier in the year, and Chavez Ravine plays much friendlier than Chase Field.

Carlos Santana – $7,320
No disrespect meant to Nick Tepsech, who has been fine in his rookie season so far, but Santana is a beast in a friendly park with some great hitting conditions today. The temperature should be around 90-degrees and despite an inward wind, Santana has a great safety net in his near-.400 on-base percentage. In fact, Santana has only failed to reach base 11 times this season – that may not sound special, but the catcher spot is a volatile one, so if you can find a high-floor backstop in a good set-up for an average price, jump on it.

Dexter Fowler – $9,907
Perhaps I’m just OBP-hungry today. Traditionally it doesn’t make sense in daily formats to “play safe,” but Fowler, like Santana, is a high-floor player with a great set-up. He’s at home in 84-degree weather with a 10 MPH wind blowing out to right, and he’ll face Ross Ohlendorf, who you might remember is Ross Ohlendorf. Oh the fly balls, plus a potentially early hook that might also get Fowler an AB or two from the right side to benefit from that wind.

Adrian Beltre – $9,185
The environment story goes the same as for Santana, but Beltre also gets to face Ubaldo Jimenez, who is really struggling to keep the ball in the park for a second straight year. I don’t think I need to say much else here.

Ian Desmond – $7,408
Desmond has the same environment as Fowler and bats from the right side. De la Rosa has at times in his career been prone to the long ball, especially against righties, and Desmond has been known to walk into mistakes. Desmond also has the upside potential for stolen bases as well, though that becomes less certain if Yorvit Torrealba dons the tools of ignorance.

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