Guys to Target and Avoid Using Platoon Splits
The daily salary cap format has become much more prevalent in the past few years. I would imagine a large part of that has to do with the fact that daily fantasy sites have figured out a good way to monetize fantasy sports. But those sites couldn’t make money if we didn’t like playing the format.
If you’re thinking of trying the format out, or if you play and are looking for thoughts on strategy, allow me to describe the strategy I employ.
Let me start by noting that I’m not a huge fan of risk, so I generally play low-risk, low-reward games like double ups, which pay out roughly the top half of the entrants each day. You get the same payout as a head-to-head matchup, but you don’t have to take on the risk of having just one opponent. As a result, my strategy might not be best suited for those who like to play the “lottery ticket” type games where you risk a small amount of money to win a big pot against a lot of other players. You need upside and luck to win those pools.
My strategy begins with the idea that you should save on pitchers when possible. There are quite a few guys I’m higher on than most, so I target them because they’re usually underpriced in my opinion. If I can’t find two bargain pitchers, I’ll just pick a stud with a good matchup to go along with a bargain. Depending on how much money I can save on pitching, I prefer to grab as many high priced hitters as possible. Hitting is just so variable day-to-day, so I’m willing to pay for the guys who go oh-fer less often.
When choosing hitters, the number one thing I look at is platoon splits. I want to pick guys who are really good against pitchers of a certain handedness and who happen to be facing such a pitcher on that day. Other factors like the park and the skill of the opposing pitcher come in to play, but platoon splits are the biggest consideration.
When you can’t find bargain pitching and don’t have much money to spend on hitters, splits can help you find undervalued players. And when you have a lot of money to spend on hitting, it’s important that you be careful not to pick good hitters who struggle against pitchers of a certain handedness.
To help me pick players each day, I created a spreadsheet with a tab listing all players who had 100 or more plate appearances against lefties last year and a tab with all players who had 240 or more plate appearances against righties. I used a different number of plate appearances because there are more plate appearances to be had against righties. I wanted to look at players who got a fair number of plate appearances against pitchers of a certain handedness.
I listed each player’s wRC+ alongside their name. I chose wRC+ because it easily allows you to see how far above average that player is against pitchers of a certain handedness. The league average wRC+ is 100, so if a guy has a wRC+ of 140 against LHP, that means he’s 40% better than average against lefties.
Below are four lists. The purpose of each list is:
- Identifying potentially underpriced options against LHP
- Identifying good hitters to avoid when they are facing LHP
- Identifying potentially underpriced options against RHP
- Identifying good hitters to avoid when they are facing RHP
For the potentially underpriced options, I listed guys with who aren’t owned in all leagues (with one exception) on the assumption that guys with lower ownership percentages will usually have lower prices on daily sites. I also tried to list at least a guy or two from each position. For good guys to avoid, I listed big name guys with high ownership percentages. Enjoy!
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Potentially Underpriced Options Against LHP |
||
|
Position |
Name |
wRC+ |
|
C |
Wilin Rosario |
194 |
|
1B |
Chris Carter |
149 |
|
2B |
Jeff Keppinger |
158 |
|
2B |
Mark Ellis |
145 |
|
2B |
Omar Infante |
134 |
|
3B |
Trevor Plouffe |
148 |
|
3B |
Alberto Callaspo |
134 |
|
SS |
Jamey Carroll |
136 |
|
SS |
Daniel Descalso |
126 |
|
OF |
Justin Ruggiano |
199 |
|
OF |
Dayan Viciedo |
177 |
|
OF |
Jonny Gomes |
171 |
|
OF |
Cody Ross |
164 |
|
OF |
Chris Denorfia |
150 |
|
OF |
Justin Maxwell |
144 |
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Good Hitters to Avoid When Facing LHP |
|
|
Name |
wRC+ |
|
Ike Davis |
52 |
|
Anthony Rizzo |
56 |
|
Jimmy Rollins |
65 |
|
Jason Kipnis |
66 |
|
Neil Walker |
69 |
|
Andre Ethier |
69 |
|
Jason Heyward |
72 |
|
Robinson Cano |
78 |
|
Pedro Alvarez |
78 |
|
Shin-Soo Choo |
78 |
|
Elvis Andrus |
83 |
|
Alex Gordon |
84 |
|
Carlos Gonzalez |
86 |
|
Adrian Beltre |
89 |
|
Bryce Harper |
93 |
|
Freddie Freeman |
95 |
|
Brandon Phillips |
96 |
|
Potentially Underpriced Options Against RHP |
||
|
Position |
Name |
wRC+ |
|
C |
John Jaso |
163 |
|
C |
A.J. Pierzynski |
130 |
|
1B |
Justin Morneau |
141 |
|
1B |
Garrett Jones |
138 |
|
2B |
Kyle Seager |
121 |
|
SS |
Jed Lowrie |
124 |
|
3B |
Eric Chavez |
143 |
|
OF |
Andy Dirks |
140 |
|
OF |
Carlos Quentin |
131 |
|
OF |
David Murphy |
127 |
|
OF |
Matt Joyce |
126 |
|
Good Hitters to Avoid When Facing RHP |
|
|
Name |
wRC+ |
|
Shane Victorino |
73 |
|
Jose Altuve |
86 |
|
Nelson Cruz |
90 |
|
Matt Wieters |
92 |
|
Desmond Jennings |
94 |
|
Paul Goldschmidt |
95 |
|
Starlin Castro |
96 |
You can find more of Brett's work on TheFantasyFix.com or follow him on Twitter @TheRealTAL.
Interesting and very useful in some formats. I think the underpriced is a little more helpful to most leagues since they are streaming / lesser owned options. Some of the avoid hitters may help daily leagues like ottoneu but nobody is every benching Harper, Freeman, Beltre and their WRC is almost near 100 anyway.
I should have been more clear that this was geared toward people playing daily, salary-cap formats. I agree, you should never sit studs like you mentioned in year-long leagues with daily roster sets.
Beltre hit the hell out of lefties in 2011, and has hit them somewhat better than righties across his career. His bad showing against them in 2012 may have just been a statistical blip.
Great lists, btw – Beltre just jumped out at me as surprising, so I looked him up.
Besides platoon splits, one thing I do is compare pitch values, and usage. Basically getting a pitcher who throws a lot of a certain pitch, and starting a player who hits said pitch particularly well.
Like that idea. Mind if I steal that idea and do a post on it next week? lol
Generally use it after platoon splits, or if its a real dilemma about who to start. I think good to frame it as, use it, but don’t overuse it.
IIRC Lowrie historically hits better against lefties, by a wide margin. Last year’s samply was the exception
Yeah that’s true. Guess that was a problem of using last year as my sample. But I chose that sample thinking that it would identify more guys getting at bats this year. IF I had gone farther back, I’m afraid I wouldn’t have found too many guys getting at-bats.
It’s sad to see my boy, Goldschmidt, listed here, but important to note that he’s fine against righties on the road. He only seems to have trouble with RHP at home oddly enough.
Yeah, you’re right. All are still small sample sizes, so we may start to see his splits even out over time.
The past few years in leagues with deep benches I’ve saved on 1B/CI/OF/U by going with a number of lefties (including many you mentioned) that I used the last two years’ worth of numbers to screen for. Others apart from those on your lists: de Aza, Pagan, Markakis and Helton. If you get 3 such LHB for every 2 active slots, on average two of them will be facing a RH starter on any given day…
I always thought Joe Mauer was a much weaker hitter against lefties. I’m surprised he didn’t make this list…
He is much better against righties, but he was still above average against lefties last year.
Interesting! So what would you do with Ike Davis next week?
vs R. Halladay (R) .227
vs C. Lee (L) .091
vs K. Kendrick (R) .250
Min
vs V. Worley (R) .111
vs C. De Vries (R)
vs K. Correia (R) .200, 1 HR
Put him in your lineup if you have to set it and leave it for the whole week. But if you can make daily changes, just sit him when he faces Lee.
Obviously platoon splits a strong indicator of how a guy will perform for your fantasy team if you play the matchups, but I’d be curious to find out how much of the story they actually tell in a fantasy baseball context. In real baseball you can start a platoon guy and know you can just pinch hit for him when you lose the platoon advantage. In fantasy, after the starter your guy is either left in likely against an unfavorable RP matchup, making him a likely BA liability and plummeting his likelihood of contributing to counting stats, or gets pinch hit for and it just becomes a lost PA. I have no idea what the true number is but say these guys lose .61 PA’s per game, that ends up being 100 PA’s over the course of the season, which would significantly impact your opportunities to get counting stats. I guess this stuff would be difficult to predict for future uses because so many variables go into it, but it would be interesting to see what the actual fantasy value of players used in platoons based on starters were in the past.
Would definitely be an interesting study.
Unfortunately, I did this with Ike Davis the day he jacked a solo shot off SD LHP Clayton Richard. Oh well, I’m believe in the long run it will pay off. Also, some pitchers like Jaime Garcia look a lot better if you just count home start stats.
I prefer to look at career splits to get a better idea than looking at last year’s numbers, to see where the key platoon splits are. I also make sure if it’s a smaller sample, the platoon numbers line up with what you’d think (considering a guy’s handedness). Just focusing on last year’s splits can end up meaning you miss out on certain guys who had an unusual year in the sample size given, or who missed out on the cut-off for ABs.
An example is Chris Iannetta, who A) missed out on your AB threshholds because he was hurt much of last year and B) in the small sample of ABs he did have, he underperformed against lefties with a 90 wRC+ and overperformed against righties with a 112 wRC+. So you would completely miss out on him as a great platoon split guy to use at catcher.
If you look at Iannetta’s career numbers, he has mashed lefties with a 127 wRC+ and been below average against righties with a 94 wRC+. He’d hit 24 of his 73 home runs against lefties coming into today, despite only having 519 of his 1996 PAs against lefties. It matches with what you’d think with him being a free-swinging right-handed hitter. It’s very likely he’ll show big splits in favor of hitting lefties in the coming season.
He did just took Holland yard today in a matchup I would’ve looked at for him, so that reflects well on all this.
This is a fair point. I actually compiled lists based just on last year and a separate on based on the last three years. There were problems with both samples. You’ve rightly pointed out the problem with the sample I chose to go with. But the problem with the sample that went further back was that it identified a lot of guys who aren’t getting regular PAs like they used to. I chose the sample I did because I thought it had more data relevant to guys expected to get PAs this year,
Id like to see someones splits when a righty or lefy starts…. So it includes the appearances by the loogy or rooogy. The split itslef is kind of useless because these players often face a rp on the opposite side every game….
Jed Lowrie as a potential underpriced option vs RHP? What? The guy has a .700 OPS career vs righties; .868 career vs lefties
I think these lists were compiled purely statistically based on last year’s performance, so some outcomes may reflect random one-year blips.