Guys to Target and Avoid Using Platoon Splits
The daily salary cap format has become much more prevalent in the past few years. I would imagine a large part of that has to do with the fact that daily fantasy sites have figured out a good way to monetize fantasy sports. But those sites couldn’t make money if we didn’t like playing the format.
If you’re thinking of trying the format out, or if you play and are looking for thoughts on strategy, allow me to describe the strategy I employ.
Let me start by noting that I’m not a huge fan of risk, so I generally play low-risk, low-reward games like double ups, which pay out roughly the top half of the entrants each day. You get the same payout as a head-to-head matchup, but you don’t have to take on the risk of having just one opponent. As a result, my strategy might not be best suited for those who like to play the “lottery ticket” type games where you risk a small amount of money to win a big pot against a lot of other players. You need upside and luck to win those pools.
My strategy begins with the idea that you should save on pitchers when possible. There are quite a few guys I’m higher on than most, so I target them because they’re usually underpriced in my opinion. If I can’t find two bargain pitchers, I’ll just pick a stud with a good matchup to go along with a bargain. Depending on how much money I can save on pitching, I prefer to grab as many high priced hitters as possible. Hitting is just so variable day-to-day, so I’m willing to pay for the guys who go oh-fer less often.
When choosing hitters, the number one thing I look at is platoon splits. I want to pick guys who are really good against pitchers of a certain handedness and who happen to be facing such a pitcher on that day. Other factors like the park and the skill of the opposing pitcher come in to play, but platoon splits are the biggest consideration.
When you can’t find bargain pitching and don’t have much money to spend on hitters, splits can help you find undervalued players. And when you have a lot of money to spend on hitting, it’s important that you be careful not to pick good hitters who struggle against pitchers of a certain handedness.
To help me pick players each day, I created a spreadsheet with a tab listing all players who had 100 or more plate appearances against lefties last year and a tab with all players who had 240 or more plate appearances against righties. I used a different number of plate appearances because there are more plate appearances to be had against righties. I wanted to look at players who got a fair number of plate appearances against pitchers of a certain handedness.
I listed each player’s wRC+ alongside their name. I chose wRC+ because it easily allows you to see how far above average that player is against pitchers of a certain handedness. The league average wRC+ is 100, so if a guy has a wRC+ of 140 against LHP, that means he’s 40% better than average against lefties.
Below are four lists. The purpose of each list is:
- Identifying potentially underpriced options against LHP
- Identifying good hitters to avoid when they are facing LHP
- Identifying potentially underpriced options against RHP
- Identifying good hitters to avoid when they are facing RHP
For the potentially underpriced options, I listed guys with who aren’t owned in all leagues (with one exception) on the assumption that guys with lower ownership percentages will usually have lower prices on daily sites. I also tried to list at least a guy or two from each position. For good guys to avoid, I listed big name guys with high ownership percentages. Enjoy!
Potentially Underpriced Options Against LHP |
||
Position |
Name |
wRC+ |
C |
Wilin Rosario |
194 |
1B |
Chris Carter |
149 |
2B |
Jeff Keppinger |
158 |
2B |
Mark Ellis |
145 |
2B |
Omar Infante |
134 |
3B |
Trevor Plouffe |
148 |
3B |
Alberto Callaspo |
134 |
SS |
Jamey Carroll |
136 |
SS |
Daniel Descalso |
126 |
OF |
Justin Ruggiano |
199 |
OF |
Dayan Viciedo |
177 |
OF |
Jonny Gomes |
171 |
OF |
Cody Ross |
164 |
OF |
Chris Denorfia |
150 |
OF |
Justin Maxwell |
144 |
Good Hitters to Avoid When Facing LHP |
|
Name |
wRC+ |
Ike Davis |
52 |
Anthony Rizzo |
56 |
Jimmy Rollins |
65 |
Jason Kipnis |
66 |
Neil Walker |
69 |
Andre Ethier |
69 |
Jason Heyward |
72 |
Robinson Cano |
78 |
Pedro Alvarez |
78 |
Shin-Soo Choo |
78 |
Elvis Andrus |
83 |
Alex Gordon |
84 |
Carlos Gonzalez |
86 |
Adrian Beltre |
89 |
Bryce Harper |
93 |
Freddie Freeman |
95 |
Brandon Phillips |
96 |
Potentially Underpriced Options Against RHP |
||
Position |
Name |
wRC+ |
C |
John Jaso |
163 |
C |
A.J. Pierzynski |
130 |
1B |
Justin Morneau |
141 |
1B |
Garrett Jones |
138 |
2B |
Kyle Seager |
121 |
SS |
Jed Lowrie |
124 |
3B |
Eric Chavez |
143 |
OF |
Andy Dirks |
140 |
OF |
Carlos Quentin |
131 |
OF |
David Murphy |
127 |
OF |
Matt Joyce |
126 |
Good Hitters to Avoid When Facing RHP |
|
Name |
wRC+ |
Shane Victorino |
73 |
Jose Altuve |
86 |
Nelson Cruz |
90 |
Matt Wieters |
92 |
Desmond Jennings |
94 |
Paul Goldschmidt |
95 |
Starlin Castro |
96 |
You can find more of Brett's work on TheFantasyFix.com or follow him on Twitter @TheRealTAL.
Interesting and very useful in some formats. I think the underpriced is a little more helpful to most leagues since they are streaming / lesser owned options. Some of the avoid hitters may help daily leagues like ottoneu but nobody is every benching Harper, Freeman, Beltre and their WRC is almost near 100 anyway.
I should have been more clear that this was geared toward people playing daily, salary-cap formats. I agree, you should never sit studs like you mentioned in year-long leagues with daily roster sets.
Beltre hit the hell out of lefties in 2011, and has hit them somewhat better than righties across his career. His bad showing against them in 2012 may have just been a statistical blip.
Great lists, btw – Beltre just jumped out at me as surprising, so I looked him up.