Crowdsourcing Results: Cano and Lee
Here are the results from this week’s ADP Crowdsourcing, and I’m bothered by what you all had to say about Lee.
Robinson Cano
My vote: 7
Average: 7.7
Median: 7.5
Std Dev: 3.3
There isn’t much to talk about after these votes. We were all in agreement when it came to Cano, with all of us being pretty confident that he’ll go in the second half of the first round. The seventh pick is right where he deserves to go, but owners shouldn’t be blamed for getting a little bit excited and selecting him as early as fourth or fifth, because he could very well be worth it.
Cliff Lee
My vote: 40
Average: 24.8
Median: 24
Std Dev: 8.74
I’m ashamed of all of you for making me look so foolish, so I guess I need to say something about the disparity in our votes. First, in what world would owners pick Lee at the 2-3 turn? Because I’m pretty confident it’s not this one. In the small sample of mock drafts that I’ve been involved in, Lee has gone during the middle of the fourth round. Granted, these were before he chose to play in Philly, but has his value really gone up that dramatically? I seriously doubt it. He may go at the 3-4 turn, but I think you all are a good 10-12 picks off here, and even a fairly generous standard deviation doesn’t reach that mark. Like a great author once said, “I may be wrong, but I doubt it.”
This is the first time I’ve looked at the results and though y’all were just flat out wrong. What am I missing here? I desperately need voters to defend themselves in the comments, so please do so.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
I had him at 30, not necessarily because I think his true value gets a boost going to Philly, but because the hype machine perceived value knocks him up a peg. Again, not where I’d take him, just where I see him going.
Also, another theory here is that the disparity between voting systems for higher ranked and lower ranked players played a role here. The early forth round is about as late as a player can go and still be considered “elite,” at least enough so that the system of voting on particular pick as opposed to round would yield more accurate/informative results. Because of this, voters may have felt compelled to push him to a slightly higher pick than they would have had we been voting on round. I suspect if we’d voted on round he’d have landed squarely in the third, and the results would have leaned more towards the later third and perhaps even pushed him to the 3-4 turn or early fourth.