Creating a Rotation with Post-300 ADP Pitchers

Every year we see throngs of late round arms put up huge fantasy seasons. Injury returners, rising rookies, and out of nowhere gems are just some of the paths we see pitchers take from a post-300 ADP into the top 50 SPs. Last year saw Ranger Suárez, Matthew Boyd, Zach Littell, Ryne Nelson, and Shane Smith deliver a ton of fantasy value from outside the Top 300, among many more who had periods of viability that could’ve been curated into some better numbers than their final season line.

Let’s build a 15-team roto rotation comprised entirely of post-300 picks with seven starters and two relievers. We’re going to look for an ace, some strong frontliners, a few team streamers, a swingman lottery ticket, and then our closers. I’m not just going to take all the 300-310 ADP guys, either. For one, it’s cheap and doesn’t really explore the pool if I stay entirely at the top end, and two, these guys could easily move into the top 300 by peak draft season in March. I’m using NFBC ADP Draft Champions data from January 19th-February 9th, a 20-draft slice.

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Ace (#1)

Finding a bankable ace this late in the draft is remarkably difficult, so we’re looking for ace material. In this case, I’m looking for a guy who can put up 130+ IP of good ratios (let’s say sub-4.00 ERA/sub-1.20 WHIP), strikeout upside (~22-24%), and some Win potential (definitely not a prerequisite). Only 29 pitchers reached the ratio thresholds in 130 IP last year, though most of the guys in our ADP threshold were on the lower end of the K% band. Shane Smith’s 24% mark was the best of the post-300 group meeting these ratios.

A season similar to the 2025 version of Boyd, Nelson, and Andrew Abbott would definitely fit the bill here.

The Pick:

Troy Melton | DET | 303 ADP – Melton’s ADP could be on the rise with the latest news that Reese Olson might not be ready to start the season, though it’s likely Drew Anderson 앤더슨 assumes that spot for the time being with Melton elevated to the #6. However, he has the talent to force Olson or Anderson out if they give him a real shot at the rotation. He has a huge arm with a deep arsenal and good extension. His strikeouts were a bit light during his 46 IP debut (20%), but that hasn’t been a problem coming up through the minors as he improved every year, topping out at 32% in 75 IP across Double- and Triple-A last year.

He threw 121 IP total last year, too, so the 130 we’re looking for won’t be a problem if the Tigers give it to him and he could have a 150+ in the tank. Obviously if he gets the 5th role, his price will soar so there is some potential timeliness on this pick to stay in the guidelines of this article. He could slice his ADP in half if he’s tracking toward a rotation spot come mid-March and I’ll still pay that, but I’ve got some other potential aces just in case Melton goes mainstream!

Also consider:

• Reynaldo López | ATL | 378 ADP – He just did this in 2024 with a 1.99 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 27% K in 136 IP so it’s kinda cheating, but it’s not my fault he’s going this late. He’s also not guaranteed to fall back into anything resembling that form but we have tons of wiggle room between his 2024 and we what we’re shooting for with our de facto ace. The 20% K-BB in that magical season says it wasn’t just smoke and mirrors.
• Bailey Ober | MIN | 303 ADP – I do have real concerns about Ober as he’s always been a soft-tossing HR machine and last year showed how slim his margin is with this profile. He also pitched through a balky hip most of the year so the 1.5 mph velo drop might not stick. That is the key to his success. If he’s back at 91.5+, I’m in. If not, it’s a hard pass. A good spring will send him firmly into the Top 300, too.
• Lucas Giolito | FA | 393 ADP – He needs a team before we can really figure anything out, but the price goes up the moment he signs unless it’s just a terrible landing spot and no clear rotation spot. He came up short on the WHIP (1.29) but had a 3.41 ERA in 145 IP last year, though his strikeout rate tumbled 6 pts to 20% after missing all of 2024. He’s been a late-round gem before and I’m willing to take a shot on him again.
• Ryan Weathers | NYY | 303 ADP – Yes, he has the same ADP as Ober and Melton, they’re split by decimals – Ober: 302.60, Weathers: 302.75, Melton: 302.85. Like the others, he could easily jump into the Top 300 and he has major upside if he can tamp down the homers. I’m listing him to indicate my overall interest, but I have no delusions of him remaining outside the Top 300. He’ll jump 50 spots with his first good spring start as a Yankee.

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Frontliners (#2 and #3)

They will have some ebbs and flows, but these are the rotation staples behind your ace. I’m looking for some potential breakthrough skills here such that a tweak or two could put them in contention for the team’s ace. Think Cade Horton and Quinn Priester type performances from last year. Horton was a big-time prospect blossoming with a huge second half while Priester was moving into that post-hype prospect phase after a very early-season (April 7th) trade put him in the third organization of his career. Milwaukee tapped into the skills that made the 24-year-old a two-time Top 100 prospect. Landing Horton’s numbers would be a dream (2.67 ERA/1.09 WHIP), while Priester’s 3.32/1.24 combo feels gettable even with our ADP restrictions.

The Picks:

Braxton Garrett | MIA | 447 ADP – I’m going the injury recovery route with this first pick. Garrett missed all of 2025 recovering from his December 2024 internal brace surgery and will be free of any restrictions this spring. Hopefully the extended recovery window helps him with a smoother return from TJ. From 2022-24, Garrett was 1 of 37 arms with a 19% (rounded) K-BB in at least 280 IP. He does it primarily off elite control (5% BB is 3rd in that group), but the soft-tossing lefty still had a perfectly palatable 24% K during the run. I’m using the conceit of slotting these guys into particular roles for this article, but the roles can be fluid throughout the season if the bottom-line numbers get there. If Garrett doesn’t quite come all the way back to his 2022-24 level immediately, he might shift into a home-only Team Streamer.

Reid Detmers | LAA | 336 ADP – I’m sorry, I have a sickness, but what would an article of mine be without hyping up an Angels starter (and often Detmers specifically)? I almost went José Soriano here, but his K-BB has stagnated the last two seasons. Detmers doesn’t get full credit for his 21% mark, as it was accomplished as a reliever, but he had a 17% mark in 236 IP from 2023-24, all as a starter. That also came with a 1.4 HR/9 so he was getting cooked regularly. The core talent is there, though. I’d be much more excited if he was on just about any other team, but the Angels are moving him back to the rotation and I’m going for him once more. I’ll be particularly interested to see if his 8-pt. spike in groundball rate holds up when starting. That would be key to tamping down those homers and bringing back his 2022 numbers (3.77/1.21).

Also consider:

• Brady Singer | CIN | 321 ADP – Singer could’ve fit this role last year as the general consensus was very worried about how he’d hold up in Cincinnati and pushed him outside the Top 300 only to see him flourish in his new home. His road work was actually the key driver keeping his 4.03 ERA so high, and his ADP has actually dropped five spots versus last year. Cincy’s park didn’t sink him and he now has back-to-back 32 start seasons plus another 29 before that. In a sea of broken arms going this late, Singer is an oasis of reliable innings (insofar as any pitcher is “reliable”).
• Jared Jones | PIT | 399 ADP – Jones underwent elbow surgery, but not traditional Tommy John. A new procedure with an internal brace has become popular recently, but apparently there’s still a third method and from the news updates I read on Rotowire, I can’t tell if he had internal brace or door #3. Either way, it’s a shortened timeline from standard TJ but still 10-12 months from late-May so he could be a summer reinforcement. Don’t forget how electric he was upon arrival in 2024 and if we can get 90-100 IP of something close to that version (4.14 ERA/1.19 WHIP/19% K-BB), I’ll take it.

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Team Streamers (#4-6)

This is just a more premium cut of streamer where you don’t cut them when they have a rough matchup. They have a good home venue, a soft division, and/or enough talent to cook the mediocre and lower teams while still falling short of that set-it-and-forget-it status.

The Picks:

Zach Eflin | BAL | 419 ADP – Eflin labored through back issues in a washed out half season after back-to-back quality seasons. This is a straightforward play that a healthy Eflin is the 2023-24 version, nothing too flashy. He ran a 3.54 ERA/1.09 WHIP/20% K-BB, the latter two both ranking Top 20 (min. 250 IP). The upside is staying healthy, the skills are already there. Full-time home starter with plenty of road starts likely being usable. I’ll fade the tougher road matchups, especially in the brutal East at least until we see some starts. Don’t be surprised if he rises to Frontliner, though.

Tyler Mahle | SFG | 362 ADP – Mahle didn’t have the skills to back up his 2.18 ERA/1.13 WHIP combo (and even the WHIP hints at the shakiness of the ERA) but he was a stone-cold stud at home: 0.84 ERA/1.03 WHIP/14% K-BB in 54 IP. Now in San Francisco, he can at least be a home stud with that spacious park behind him. I wouldn’t rule out some upside if he can spike a healthy season. That’s a big “IF” after just 125 IP over the last three seasons combined, though.

Cade Cavalli | WAS | 343 ADP – Classic post-hype arm who has been undercut by injuries with just 303 MiLB IP at age-27. He still runs it up there at 97 mph aiding him to a solid 108 Stuff+ in 49 IP last year. He’s a heavy groundball guy, too, and as such might be lighter on strikeouts despite that velo and a solid 12% SwStr. I still think he can be a good bit better than the 18% we saw in 2025. He could be more of a volatility streamer than a venue/matchup one. When he’s on, I’m likely to be less concerned about either of those factors, but then when he’s off, he might be a fade at Pittsburgh.

Also consider:

• Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | 526 ADP – This is like Eflin-lite. He’s been bad longer (254 IP across two seasons) and comes over 100 picks cheaper, but it’s the same driving principle that I just don’t believe he’s toast. I just didn’t see anything in his numbers that said he’s a true talent >5.00 ERA arm.
• Spencer Arrighetti | HOU | 413 ADP – Impressed during an uneven 145-IP debut but fell on his face in the follow up with just 35 ugly IP in between thumb and elbow injuries. All of a sudden, he must fight for a role with the arrivals of Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows, and Ryan Weiss 와이스. Weiss returning from KBO after two nice seasons could also fit in this staff in some capacity.

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Swingman Lottery Ticket (#7)

Truly building a rotation through post-300 ADP picks takes a lot of in-season management, too. There’s almost no chance you’ll nail it with every draft pick so playing the wire becomes pertinent to success. Even without limiting yourself to post-300 picks, you should have a spot or two to churn unless your rotation is just cooking. There is almost always someone with a short-term outlook ready to cut in search of the next big thing.

The Pick:

Jacob Latz | TEX | 461 ADP – Latz was a swingman in the truest form of the baseball meaning, notching eight starts and 25 relief appearances. He was actually sharper as a starter with a 1.08 WHIP/12% K-BB, compared to his 1.37/10% out of the pen. Neither K-BB is worth a damn, but there could be more here. His career 13% SwStr hints at some strikeout potential as he looks to improve on modest 22% K-rate. That 12% BB needs to come down if he’s going to be a consistent starter, too. Closed strong with 2.40 ERA/1.15 WHIP in his last 27 IP (5 starts, 2 relief app) and hopefully gets a real chance to win a rotation spot. If he doesn’t land a rotation spot out of spring, we move onto the next potential gem.

Also consider:

• Robert Gasser | MIL | 523 ADP – I considered the recently acquired Brandon Sproat in this spot but opted for Gasser as I think he could be the first man up for the Brewers after returning from TJ last year. A 27-year-old lefty with a bunch of high minors success seems ripe to rip off 90-110 good innings for the Brewers. And if things really go well, he’s this year’s Tobias Myers/Chad Patrick. Speaking of… Patrick has a 318 ADP and would definitely fit on our rotation somewhere. Patrick has more juice than Myers did the year before him which has me thinking he could actually improve upon his 3.53 ERA/1.28 WHIP combo. While he’s not getting his own write-up for our exercise, consider Patrick a legitimate recommendation and a late-round target.
• Robby Snelling | MIA | 316 ADP – Back to the Marlins, this time betting on the unknown as Snelling has yet to debut, but a sharp high minors season put the 2022 1st rounder back on the map in a big way. He was actually better in 64 IP at Triple-A (26% K-BB) than he was in a solid 72-IP run at Double-A (21%). The Marlins signed Chris Paddack as I’m writing this which shouldn’t be a huge impediment to Snelling’s arrival, but that’s far from his only hurdle as he’s not even on the 40-man roster yet. Just keep tabs on him during Spring Training and be ready to move if his path to a roster spot starts opening up.

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Closers (#8 and #9)

Well, I guess we need some saves. This could be even tougher than landing a bona fide ace. Last year, we had the absolute godsend in Emilio Pagán, but even he was a first week waiver pickup as opposed to late round draft find. It was sparse otherwise. Camilo Doval (410 ADP in 2025) snatched the role from Ryan Walker and logged 16 SVs before being traded to NYY; Dennis Santana matched him with 16 SVs of his own off a 470 ADP; Calvin Faucher had 15 SVs with a 319 ADP; Seth Halvorsen nabbed 11 SVs with a 430 ADP; the rest of the double-digit finds were in-season pickups: Will Vest, Daniel Palencia, Jose A. Ferrer, Shelby Miller, and Victor Vodnik. I like my picks a good bit for this, though if I’m right about them, their role will crystallize well before peak draft season and blow these ADPs outta the water.

The Picks:

Robert Stephenson | LAA | 340 ADP – The Angels gave BobSteve a 3-year/$33-million-dollar deal in 2024 and have gotten a whopping 10 IP as he missed most of the first two years recovering from Tommy John surgery. It’d be easy to dismiss his eye-popping 21% SwStr as purely a product of small sample, but he ran a 25% mark for 52 IP in 2023! Only Brad Lidge has a higher mark (min. 50) in the SwStr-tracking era and it’s by mere decimals: 25.1% to 24.8%. If he can stay healthy, there’s 20 SVs and 100 Ks here. That, of course, is a gigantic IF!

Taylor Rogers | MIN | 413 ADP – Minnesota will probably play matchups, but maybe he can recapture some magic. Even if he doesn’t, he could grind out 12-15 ugly SVs. His 3.16 ERA over the last three years has been fine but the 1.29 WHIP isn’t exactly closer worthy. Faucher (1.28 WHIP) and Ferrer (1.27) managed their double-digit SV totals despite an elevated WHIP. Late SV speculating is a clear “beggars can’t be choosy” situation so I have no delusions about Rogers but hopefully we’re not headed toward some Shawn Chacon-level SVs for my oldheads who remember that nightmare (35 SVs… 7.11 ERA/1.94 WHIP!!!!).

Also consider:

• Jeremiah Estrada | SDP | 360 ADP – He’s behind perhaps the game’s best closer in Mason Miller, but he’s got his 27% K-BB and 18% SwStr ready to go if anything happens.
• Clayton Beeter | WAS | 319 ADP – Classic live-armed reliever with no control. He has a 34% K in 328 MiLB IP but also a 13% BB. No one else is missing bats like that in the Nats bullpen, though, so why not give him a look and hope he can bring the walks down a manageable 9-10% rate.

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Here’s our rotation:

• SP1 – Troy Melton
• SP2 – Braxton Garrett
• SP3 – Reid Detmers
• SP4 – Zach Eflin
• SP5 – Tyler Mahle
• SP6 – Cade Cavalli
• SP7 – Jacob Latz
• RP1 – Robert Stephenson
• RP2 – Taylor Rogers

Who would you pick? NFBC ADP