Corey Dickerson’s Value in Tampa Bay
In the aftermath of Corey Dickerson being traded to the Tampa Bay Rays last week, we have seen numerous thoughts and predictions on his future fantasy value in Tampa. The prevalent belief being that he is no longer mixed league worthy. I actually saw someone in a Facebook discussion group post a tombstone with his player card on it. Photoshop aside, it is time to examine Dickerson’s fantasy value in Tampa.
One of the biggest fears for fantasy owners is when a batter is traded from a great hitters park to a lesser location. The move from Coors Field to the Trop obviously hurts Dickerson’s value, but how much? The easy (and most popular) answer is to just look at his career home/road splits and ascertain that his new baseline will be in line with his prior career road numbers:
| Season | Home / Away | G | AB | PA | HR | AVG | wOBA | BB/K | ISO | HR/FB |
| Total | Home | 122 | 400 | 442 | 24 | 0.355 | 0.460 | 0.51 | 0.320 | 20.50% |
| Total | Away | 143 | 454 | 483 | 15 | 0.249 | 0.301 | 0.20 | 0.161 | 13.40% |
| 2013-15 | Total | 265 | 854 | 925 | 39 | 0.299 | 0.377 | 0.32 | 0.235 | 17% |
However, if you listened to episode 300 of Sleeper and the Bust, with special guest Mike Petriello, you learned that while Coors had a positive effect on players’ home numbers, it actually had a negative impact on their road numbers. So, the best way to properly value Dickerson’s future value would be to look at prior “Coors Creations” and how their numbers changed after leaving Colorado.
Let’s begin with Dexter Fowler. Many thought leaving the comfy confines of Coors Field would destroy any power numbers that he had previously. Here are his home/road splits in his final two seasons with the Rockies:
| Season | Home / Away | G | AB | PA | HR | AVG | wOBA | BB/K | ISO | HR/FB |
| 2012 | Home | 70 | 244 | 293 | 10 | 0.332 | 0.422 | 0.70 | 0.221 | 17.20% |
| 2012 | Away | 65 | 210 | 237 | 3 | 0.262 | 0.319 | 0.37 | 0.119 | 6.30% |
| Season | Home / Away | G | AB | PA | HR | AVG | wOBA | BB/K | ISO | HR/FB |
| 2013 | Home | 61 | 209 | 241 | 7 | 0.311 | 0.383 | 0.66 | 0.167 | 13.00% |
| 2013 | Away | 58 | 206 | 251 | 5 | 0.214 | 0.312 | 0.59 | 0.121 | 9.60% |
As you can see, his number have similarly large split differences inside and away from Coors during his years with the Rockies.
Now, here are his last two seasons since leaving Colorado:
| Season | Team | G | AB | PA | HR | AVG | wOBA | BB/K | ISO | HR/FB |
| 2014 | Astros | 116 | 434 | 505 | 8 | 0.276 | 0.347 | 0.61 | 0.122 | 7.1% |
| 2015 | Cubs | 156 | 569 | 690 | 17 | 0.25 | 0.333 | 0.55 | 0.161 | 10.6 |
While Fowler’s offensive numbers slipped a little overall, they did not crater to the levels of his road statistics from his Rockies days. These number are not purely anecdotal either. Matt Holliday has been fine in Busch Stadium since leaving Coors. Ellis Burks hit more home runs in San Francisco and Cleveland, in the four and a half seasons after leaving Coors, than he did in the same amount of time in Colorado. When Seth Smith departed Colorado’s hitter’s park in 2013 for the Oakland Coliseum, he hit one less home run in 93 less at bats. History shows us that leaving Coors Field does not usually crush your fantasy value.
Now that we have put the “Coors Creation” argument to bed, let’s talk about the other black marks on Dickerson’s record. He has historically struggled against left-handed pitching. However, I would argue that the sample sizes are small and his career numbers are brought down by an atrocious 2013. He has actually improved the last two seasons against left-handers.
The biggest concern for Dickerson heading into this upcoming season is health. Dickerson battled multiple injuries during the 2015 season, which ultimately derailed his season. We can speculate that the lack of return for him from the Rays may be due to the lack of confidence by Colorado in his physical health. However, I am going to assume that an organization like the Rays, having dealt with an injury riddled Desmond Jennings last season, would do their due diligence before finalizing a deal on Dickerson. Until I hear a reliable source say otherwise, I would expect Dickerson to enter 2016 healthy and looking for a turnaround.
So, how do we value Corey Dickerson for the 2015 season?
As of writing this article, Dickerson’s currently the 23rd ranked outfielder in our consensus ranks, has an average draft position of the 23rd outfielder (81.88 overall) in NFBC draft, and the 33rd ranked outfielder (97th overall) in Yahoo’s ranks with an ADP of 102.9. Our consensus ranks and NFBC’s ADP have not been updated since the trade. Yahoo’s ranks appear to be current with Dickerson’s value since the trade.
I believe that the trade to Tampa Bay will tank Dickerson’s perceived value in the fantasy industry. This will make him some sort of value coming into to drafts that occur later in the preseason. Currently, Yahoo’s rank of 33rd outfielder off the board is three spots lower than I personally have him ranked. As his average draft position begins to decline due to fears over his home ballpark, injuries, and platoon issues, savvy fantasy owners should start to take notice. If you are getting him as a third outfield in 15-team leagues or as a fourth or fifth in 12-teamers, you are getting value for his potential. I’d expect him to outperform Steamer’s expectations of home runs and a .259 average. Something more in line with 18-21 home runs with a .265-.275 avg and 3-4 stolen bases is what I would project and anything above that is pure profit.
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
So in a 14 team league, keeping him in the 15th round is a reasonable thing to do with the potential for some nice profit at that point?
I think that is really nice value. Even at his floor he should return more than enough value.
I can keep him at 6$ in a 12 team OPS league. 240 total budget. If I cut him I won’t be able to keep a different player. Keep or cut?
I know very little about your roster or what type of OF pieces you expect to be available, but $6 seems like a reasonable keep.
Without knowing the rest of your team, I would say that I think it is a good keeper price especially considering there is probably some sort of inflation rate in your league to consider. You can always screenshot your team and hit me up on twitter for me to get a better idea. @justinmasonfwfb
I already looked at all 44 players that accrued a decent amount of time with the Rockies and also played for another club.
http://theprocessreport.net/examining-the-coors-effect/
To elaborate, batters saw about a 20% decrease in their offensive performance at home, and around a 5% increase in their performance on the road once they were out of playing in Coors half their games.
Sorry, more like an 11% decline in performance at home, but balanced by the 5% increase in road performance. Expect a small step back, but nothing extreme as his observed road performance.
I think the Matt Holliday comp is used too much considering his career road wOBAs. I dunno, let me know what you guys think.
Here are his Road wOBA numbers, age season, and home team.
.287 – 24 – Rox
.317 – 25 – Rox
.348 – 26 – Rox
.372 – 27 – Rox
.390 – 28 – Rox
.364 – 29 – Rox/A’s
.391 – 30 – Cards
.400 – 31 – Cards
.375 – 32 – Cards
.348 – 33 – Cards
.331 – 34 – Cards
.349 – 35 – Cards
Is there that much difference in here vs a standard aging curve? His 5 highest road wOBAs were in that 27 to 32 age range, and two of those were the last two full years he was with the Rox. Looks to me like a great hitter doing great things when he was supposed to regardless of home park. I dunno though.
Erp, that should read 6 highest wOBAs are in 27 to 32 age range. For some reason I didn’t think that Rox/A’s season was the 6th highest, but it is.
It’s hard to say that when Fowler left Coors field his power numbers have increased. Isn’t it true that most players produce more power as they age? Which could be the effect of the ballpark or because it is maturity
Players begin losing power after age 25 or so.
Source:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-age-like-wine-power-like-cheese/
http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/hitter_isoaging.jpg
One thing to keep in mind is the friendly hitters park the Rays play at in the ALE.
Yeah the trop will sap some of his power, in the same way it did in LA SF and SD.
Just remeber the Rays play 36 games in fenway, yankees stadium, camden, and the rogers centre.
Also he’s projected to hit cleanup right? He deaf has mixed league value imo.
Deff*
Roster Resource projects him 4th and it makes the most logical sense.
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I laughed, but I just had two adult beverages.
You didn’t need the adult beverages in this case.
Corey Dickerson’s largest drop in value will come from a drop in counting stats.
Blackmon, Dickerson, Cargo, Arenado is elite
verse
K squared, The Force, Dickerson and Longo. (rosterresource.com)
Dickerson will also play 30 games in Bal, Tor and Yankee stadium
verse the large NL road parks he endured prior.
The move matters, but not just due to leaving Coors. Drop his HR to 20-25 upside and 20 RBI and R each, but the BA and OBP should still be plus in this era.
It sucks. CD was primed for a massive prime peak in Coors and now we have to watch him do his best Heyward impression in the Trop w/o the 20 SB.
There is a part of me that by default almost assumes he has value because the Rays were willing to trade for him. There are very few trades that “smart” organizations like Tampa Bay, Chicago / Epstein and to a certain extent St. Louis and even the Royals “lose.” While the Rockies may surprise us what I see so far is a front office that is confused about the competitiveness of their club and an organization that is comfortable fielding a mediocre team while continuing to draw well and generate profits.
All that to say I have faith the Rays see clear value in Dickerson especially with their platoon options. For me the injury is a bigger concern than the stadium shift as plantar fasciitis seems to have a tendency to linger and could really cut into Dickerson’s PT and overall effectiveness.
While reinjury will be a concern, I have faith that an organization like the Rays that can’t afford to lose value on player would do their due diligence. If you have faith in their organization, than you should have faith in that as well.
While Dickerson may come into 2016 healthy, we should remember that Plantar Fasciitis is a recurring problem.
While you ask the right questions, your evidence is weak.
Your first piece of evidence, the only one for which you created a graph, is Dexter Fowler, and you ignore the obvious: His first year away from Colorado he put up numbers that fall within the range of his road numbers with the Rockies. His ISO is virtually identical, his HR/RB% is actually worse and is wOBA somewhat better. While he clearly performed better his second year after Colorado, that isn’t much comfort to those hoping Dickerson will perform far above his read record his first season away.
Your second piece of evidence is to cherry-pick three plays out of the dozens who played in Colorado, including two perennial all-stars. The one non all-star in your tiny sample, Seth Smith, you then pick one measure — home runs — for one year. But his ISO and his wOBA once he left Colorado for the past four years has been far closer to what he produced on the road than what he did at home with the Rockies.
Sandy Kazmir in the comments posted a systematic analysis. Without commenting on whether that analysis was well-executed (I don’t have much time tonight to consider it), at least it was a correct approach, especially on a site and in a section in which arguments should be rooted in statistics and not their misuse.
I appreciate the feedback. While I am not going to argue that I did “cherry pick” the statistics, I disagree that I misused them. I used the information to show my approach in evaluating Dickerson’s move to TB. The reason I didn’t use more graphs or dive deeper into other player was because I didn’t want clutter up the article or make it extremely long. I do appreciate your criticism though and I will try and make adjustments in future works.
Dickerson has never had an average that low at any level during any point in his career. Not sure where steamer is getting its number from (for his avg) but it sure seems pretty flawed.
Does league format dictate your interest in Dickerson? I’d think he has a bit more value in daily transaction leagues where you don’t have to endure bad games or no stats if he sits against tough lefties.
I think that is an excellent point! I would probably be less likely to draft any player that I feel is a platoon or injury risk in a weekly moves league. Obviously for Dickerson I am less concerned with those issues, but if you are it may be safer to stay away.
I think the biggest flaw in this analysis, which is a common analysis right now in the roto world so I don’t think he’s going to come at much of a discount, is that you are not factoring in age curves to your comps AND the comps are a serious SSS.
I appreciate the feedback. I didn’t factor in aging curves into my comps and that may have been an oversight. I’ll be sure to keep that in mind in the future.
I think you are downplaying the plantar fasciitis risk on TB’s turf field.
(1) Most people recover from plantar fasciitis if they rest the foot for a few months — the time is needed to heel the micro-tears. Dickerson’s case likely lingered last year because he came back too soon, but an off-season of more than 3 months should be sufficient time to heal most cases.
(2) Tampa may reduce the risk by playing Dickerson at DH and 1B.
No health risk is nil but Dickerson’s chance of full recovery is pretty good.
I think Jonathan nails it here. I would add one more point, that the Rays are a smart organization that I assume would do their due diligence in the medical evaluations of a player they’re acquiring.
D-flower is not a good comp–he totally changed his swing style after getting tutored by Bonds and is a different kind of hitter now (or was in 2015).
That being said, I like C-dickers. I just have to decide on C-dickers @ $8 or Wade Davis @ $1 in a keeper league, 12 tm 260 budget 5×5….
I would take a $1 Davis. Depending on inflation and the fears of Dickerson in your league, you may be able to get him back at close or less than $8
I would really like to have seen the home road splits after the comps left Coors. Hitters hit better at home no matter where the home park is, in most instances.