Context Matters: Featuring Niko Goodrum and Tony Kemp

We could begin this post by spending some time getting to know Niko Goodrum and Tony Kemp. Instead, let’s start with some generalizations. They’re both in a weird sweet spot on the talent curve – good enough to start on a bad major league team yet not so talented that they must be in the majors. From a fantasy perspective, they have the potential to produce average or better numbers in multiple categories. This makes them interesting to us.

There are a lot of these players in the professional ranks. The difference between one and another often amounts to a single noticeable hot streak. Reaching into the past a bit, do you think Ryan Raburn has a 14-year career (parts of 12 major league campaigns) if he didn’t light September on fire a couple times? I don’t.

Goodrum and Kemp did enough in 2018 to lay the foundation for a solid major league career. However, their 2019 opportunities are strikingly different. The reason? Context.

Niko Goodrum: It’s Wide Open

The Tigers handed Goodum 492 plate appearances last season as their super utility man. Although he didn’t light the world afire with his bat, he furnished double-digit totals in home runs and stolen bases while mostly batting second or cleanup. He’ll once again fill an important role in the lineup while absorbing most of the second base starts. In case of injuries, Goodrum can slide to first base, third base, or shortstop.

Goodrum’s fantasy value derives mostly from opportunity and role. He’s assured solid run production with enough power and speed to float in those categories. In most formats, he’ll carry multi-position eligibility.

There’s some weirdness in his profile too. On a contender, he would be relegated to a backup role. A switch-hitter, Goodrum struggles to make contact against right-handed pitchers (30 percent strikeout rate). He also hit 15 of 16 home runs versus righties. Although he’s a more consistent batter versus southpaws, he puts most of his contact on the ground. Hence the one home run in 132 plate appearances.

Bear in mind, these are small sample platoon splits. Depending on how much faith we put in them – I find the contact rates and batted ball tendencies to be believable – Goodrum could be used as a weird platoon hitter in fantasy leagues. When you need power, toss him in the lineup against right-handers. If you need stolen bases, use him versus lefties. Half of his 12 steals came against lefties even though they accounted for just over one-quarter of his plate appearances.

Tony Kemp: The Road Is Blocked

I’ve been yelling for the Astros to free Kemp these last few years. He possesses a borderline special combination of plate discipline and speed, all packed into an Altuve-sized package. He also has non-trivial pop, although most of his contact is on the ground.

For a non-contender like the Tigers, Kemp would bat leadoff and accrue 100 runs, 10 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a playable batting average. That’s a fantasy monster even if the real world model might only add up to a league average player. With the Astros, he’s barely the backup to Michael Brantley. Any serious injury to Brantley probably triggers a Kyle Tucker promotion.

Kemp’s best path to playing time is via trade, yet the Astros have little incentive to deal him since he still has one more option year and won’t be arbitration eligible until 2021. He’s useful depth even though his weak arm limits him to left field and second base.

Besides, Houston learned the hard way about altruistically setting players free. See J.D. Martinez. Instead, Kemp is left hoping for a landslide of injuries to open the door. Perhaps he’ll finally hit the trade block after this season when he’s out of options. Assuming they use one this season.