​
​
Sign In
  • Support FanGraphs
    FanGraphs Membership
    FanGraphs Shirts
    FanGraphs Mugs
    Gift a Membership
    Donate to FanGraphs
  • Fantasy
    Fantasy Tools
    Fantasy Player Rater
    Auction Calculator
    Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball
    Signup, FAQ, Blog Posts
  • Blogs
    Blog Roll

    FanGraphs
    • RosterResource Chat - 7/24/25
    • The Cardinals DFA Erick Fedde as They Slide Further From Contention
    • Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/24/25
    • Rich Hill Is Alive With the Sound of Scream-Grunts
    Podcasts: Effectively Wild

    FanGraphs Prospects

    RotoGraphs
    • Midseason 3B Rank Assessment
    • Paul Sporer's Baseball Chat - July 23rd, 2025
    Podcasts: The Sleeper and The Bust | Field of Streams | Beat the Shift

    Community Research
    • Effectively Wild's Preseason Predictions Game Update: Ben Clemens

    Archived Blogs: The Hardball Times | NotGraphs | TechGraphs | FanGraphs+
    Archived THT: THT Live | Dispatch | Fantasy | ShysterBall
    Archived Podcasts: FanGraphs Audio | Chin Music | UMP: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project | Stealing Home | Doing It For Bartolo | OttoGraphs |
  • Projections
    2025 Pre-Season Projections
    ZiPS, ZiPS DC
    Steamer
    Depth Charts
    ATC
    THE BAT, THE BAT X
    OOPSY
    2025 600 PA / 200 IP Projections
    Steamer600, Steamer600 (Update)
    2025 Updated In-Season Projections
    ZiPS (RoS), ZiPS (Update), ZiPS DC (RoS)
    Steamer (RoS), Steamer (Update)
    Depth Charts (RoS)
    ATC DC (RoS)
    THE BAT (RoS), THE BAT X (RoS)
    OOPSY DC (RoS)
    3-Year Projections
    ZiPS 2026, ZiPS 2027
    On-Pace Leaders
    Every Game Played, Games Played %
    Cy Young Award Projections

    Auction Calculator
  • Scores
    Today
    Live Scoreboard, Probable Pitchers
    Live Daily Leaderboards
    Win Probability & Box Scores
    2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019
    AL Games
    BAL (4) @ CLE (3)Final
    TOR (11) @ DET (1)End 8
    ATH (1) @ HOU (0)Bot 3
    SEA @ LAA21:35
    NL Games
    SDP (5) @ STL (7)Top 4
  • Standings
    2025 Projected Standings
    2025 Playoff Odds, Playoff Odds Graphs
    2024 ZiPS Postseason Game-By-Game Odds
    AL East
    Blue Jays60420.0
    Yankees56464.0
    Red Sox55496.0
    Rays53507.5
    Orioles445715.5
    AL Central
    Tigers60430.0
    Guardians51508.0
    Royals505310.0
    Twins495310.5
    White Sox376623.0
    AL West
    Astros60420.0
    Mariners54486.0
    Rangers53507.5
    Angels495311.0
    Athletics426219.0
    NL East
    Mets59440.0
    Phillies58440.5
    Marlins485310.0
    Braves445714.0
    Nationals416117.5
    NL Central
    Brewers61410.0
    Cubs60421.0
    Reds53508.5
    Cardinals52519.5
    Pirates426119.5
    NL West
    Dodgers60430.0
    Padres55474.5
    Giants54496.0
    D-backs505310.0
    Rockies267633.5
  • Leaders
    Major League Leaders
    Batting: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, Career
    Pitching: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, Career
    Fielding: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, Career
    Major League Leaders - Rank
    Batting: Ranking Grid, Compare Players, Compare Stats
    Pitching: Ranking Grid, Compare Players, Compare Stats
    Splits Leaderboards
    Pitch-Type Splits Leaderboards
    Season Stat Grid

    Postseason Leaders
    Batting: 2024, (WS), (LCS), (LDS), (WCS), Career
    Pitching: 2024, (WS), (LCS), (LDS), (WCS), Career

    Spring Training Leaders
    Batting: 2025, 2024, 2023
    Pitching: 2025, 2024, 2023

    KBO Leaders
    Batting, Pitching
    NPB Leaders
    Batting, Pitching

    Minor League Leaders
    AAA: International League, Pacific Coast League
    AA: Eastern League, Southern League, Texas League
    A+: Midwest League, South Atlantic League, Northwest League
    A: California League, Carolina League, Florida State League
    CPX: Arizona, Florida
    R: Dominican Summer League
    College Leaders
    Batting, Pitching

    WAR Tools
    Combined WAR Leaderboards
    WAR Graphs
    WPA Tools
    WPA Inquirer
    Rookie Leaders
    Batters 2025, Pitchers 2025
    Splits Leaders
    Batters: vs L, vs R, Home, Away
    Pitchers: vs L, vs R, Home, Away
  • Teams
    Team Batting Stats
    2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020
    Team Pitching Stats
    2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020
    Team WAR Totals (RoS)
    AL East
    Blue Jays  |  DC
    Orioles  |  DC
    Rays  |  DC
    Red Sox  |  DC
    Yankees  |  DC
    AL Central
    Guardians  |  DC
    Royals  |  DC
    Tigers  |  DC
    Twins  |  DC
    White Sox  |  DC
    AL West
    Angels  |  DC
    Astros  |  DC
    Athletics  |  DC
    Mariners  |  DC
    Rangers  |  DC
    NL East
    Braves  |  DC
    Marlins  |  DC
    Mets  |  DC
    Nationals  |  DC
    Phillies  |  DC
    NL Central
    Brewers  |  DC
    Cardinals  |  DC
    Cubs  |  DC
    Pirates  |  DC
    Reds  |  DC
    NL West
    D-backs  |  DC
    Dodgers  |  DC
    Giants  |  DC
    Padres  |  DC
    Rockies  |  DC
    Positional Depth Charts
    Batters: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF, DH
    Pitchers: SP, RP
  • RosterResource
    Current Depth Charts
    AL East
    Blue Jays
    Orioles
    Rays
    Red Sox
    Yankees
    AL Central
    Guardians
    Royals
    Tigers
    Twins
    White Sox
    AL West
    Angels
    Astros
    Athletics
    Mariners
    Rangers
    NL East
    Braves
    Marlins
    Mets
    Nationals
    Phillies
    NL Central
    Brewers
    Cardinals
    Cubs
    Pirates
    Reds
    NL West
    D-backs
    Dodgers
    Giants
    Padres
    Rockies
    In-Season Tools
    2025 Closer Depth Chart
    2025 Injury Report
    2025 Payroll Pages
    2025 Transaction Tracker
    2025 Schedule Grid
    2025 Probables Grid
    2025 Lineup Tracker
    2025 Minor League Power Rankings
    Offseason Tools
    2025 Free Agent Tracker
    2025 Offseason Tracker
    2025 Opening Day Tracker
  • Prospects
    Prospects Home
    The Board
    The Board: Scouting + Stats!
    How To Use The Board: A Tutorial
    Farm System Rankings

    Top Prospects List
    20252024
    AL
    BALCHWATH
    BOSCLEHOU
    NYYDETLAA
    TBRKCRSEA
    TORMINTEX
    NL
    ATLCHCARI
    MIACINCOL
    NYMMILLAD
    PHIPITSDP
    WSNSTLSFG
    2025 Preseason Top 100
  • Glossary
    Library
    Batting Stats
    wOBA, wRC+, ISO, K% & BB%, more...
    Pitching Stats
    FIP, xFIP, BABIP, K/9 & BB/9, more...
    Defensive Stats
    UZR Primer, DRS, FSR, TZ & TZL, more...
    More
    WAR, UBR Primer, WPA, LI, Clutch
    Guts!
    Seasonal Constants
    Park Factors
    Park Factors by Handedness
  • Sign In
Crowdsourced Trade Value: Pick between player matchups to create your own trade value list!

Comparing Underlying Metrics Between Pitchers Part II

by Michael Simione
November 11, 2021

We all look at underlying metrics when it comes to any player, but whether we like to admit it or not we still sometimes look at the basic numbers. For pitchers, while ERA and WHIP of course mean something, we all know they aren’t predictive at all. Yet sometimes they are hard to ignore and we think, “well he did have a great ERA.” As a fun little exercise, we are going to compare two pitchers at a time based on underlying statistics to see if we can push away some biases. It’s time for part two, let’s have some fun!

Player A: 13.3 K-BB%, 4.19 SIERA, 28.6 CSW%, 53.9 GB%
Player B: 14.8 K-BB%, 4.07 SIERA, 28.0 CSW, 51.6 GB%

Very even here but the context will matter in this one, you shall see! Much like the last article let’s move on to more basic stats.

Player A: 4.51 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
Player B: 4.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP

Player A is Dane Dunning and Player B is German Marquez. Sure Marquez will likely get you 180 innings but if you look at Steamer Projections Dane Dunning could be a much cheaper better option. Steamer project Dane Dunning to pitch 154 innings with a 4.28 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, while it projects Marquez for 193 innings with a 4.53 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Do you want more innings and the headache of Coors Field? Or do you prefer the potential better ratios and a pitcher’s ballpark?

Dane Dunning will certainly be drafted later than German Marquez and while the innings could justify it why not just wait for Dunning? Dunning finished with a 4.51 ERA but it came with a 3.94 FIP, .338 BABIP, and 4.12 SIERA. He doesn’t throw hard but his sinker induces ground balls, his slider had a 19.7 SwStr%, and his changeup an 18.0 SwStr%. Both of those breaking balls also have a high chase rate. The strikeout ability is there, it’s just a matter of time before he unlocks his full potential.

Player A: 158.2 IP, 16.1 K-BB%, 4.20 SIERA, 26.8 CSW%, 33.7 O-Swing%, 85.8 Z-Contact%
Player B: 162.1 IP, 15.9 K-BB%, 4.01 SIERA, 31.4 CSW%, 28.0 O-Swing%, 85.5 Z-Contact%

Similar profiles here, Player A has a slightly higher K-BB% while Player B has a lower SIERA and higher CSW%. Both basically allow the same zone contact but Player A gets more chases outside of the zone. A little give and take here but both are very similar.

Player A: 5.05 ERA and 1.24 WHIP
Player B: 3.16 ERA and 1.13 WHIP

Huge difference here in terms of ERA and there is one major reason for it. Player A had an HR/9 of 1.47 while Player B had an HR/9 of 0.72. Player A is Mike Minor and Player B is Lance McCullers.

I liked this one because of Mike Minor. When he has a 3.59 ERA in 2019 it was because he was able to dip his home run rate to 1.30. While we can’t say for sure if that will happen again it’s of course a possibility. In deep leagues or NFBC DC’s Minor is a solid grab because he has decent underlying numbers and seems like he is just one adjustment away.

Player A: 15.4% K-BB%, 4.17 SIERA, 28.8 CSW%, 94.9 FB Velo, 48.4 GB%
Player B: 13.3% K-BB%, 4.38 SIERA, 27.2 CSW%, 94.6 FB Velo, 49.3 GB%

Player A easily takes the cake on this one. Player A also pitched 149 innings while Player B pitched 128.1 innings giving us a bigger sample for Player A. On to the basic stats!

Player A: 4.59 ERA and 1.33 WHIP
Player B: 3.58 ERA and 1.23 WHIP

Two big gaps in terms of ERA and WHIP here between the two players and although Player A looks better under the hood he still was outperformed by Player B. There is likely one big reason for that, Coors Field. Player A is Jon Gray and Player B is Ian Anderson.

Jon Gray actually had reverse splits in 2021 where he pitched better at home than on the road. The problem is that when you constantly go between two different altitudes like that, where it shapes your pitches differently, it’s going to mess you up in one way or another. We have never seen Jon Gray pitch on another team and we are finally about to.

Gray seems to have a ton of potential. He throws in the mid ’90s with his fastball, his slider has consistently been a true whiff pitch, and his changeup/curveball has always provided a good mix of weak contact and ground balls.





Projection Accuracy: Early March Pitcher Rate Stats
 
2021 Roster Review: Cleveland Guardians

1 Comment
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Joe WilkeyMember since 2025
3 years ago

Re: Dunning/Marquez, Marquez projects for 50 more Ks than Dunning, both due to rate and projected innings. I’m not so sure the K ability is there with Dunning, just because he has two secondary pitches that have “good” swing and miss stuff. He throws his sinker more than half the time, and it has a SwStk% that is 24% below league average for sinkers. His slider is 16% above league average on SwStk, and his changeup is 26% above league average. When he’s not getting whiffs, he’s getting hit pretty good, all three of those pitches are 10% worse than league average on balls in play by xwOBA.

Marquez by comparison is nearly 40% below league average SwStk for his four seamer, but nearly 22% above league average SwStk for his slider, and a whopping 54% better than league average for SwStk on his curveball. Meanwhile, on balls in play, Marquez is roughly league average with his slider and fastball, and 8% better than league average with his curveball.

They’re roughly the same age, so I think I would definitely take Marquez over Dunning by a good margin. Better K potential and better balls in play results. You can avoid Marquez against good teams in Coors if you like, but I’d say he’s even startable against middling or worse teams in that stadium.

0
You are going to send email to

Move Comment

Updated: Thursday, July 24, 2025 6:00 AM ETUpdated: 7/24/2025 6:00 AM ET
@fangraphs - Contact Us - Advertise - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy
sis_logo
All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions.
mlb logo
Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball.
Mitchel Lichtman
All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman.
TangoTiger.com
All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com
Retrosheet.org
Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.

Support FanGraphs
Become a Member

Please consider becoming a FanGraphs Member. All the great work that you've come to rely on is made possible by Member support, including analysis, stats, projections, RosterResource, prospect coverage, and podcasts.

Membership starts at $.16 a day.

Already a Member: Log In

Sign Me Up