Coby Mayo & Jackson Holliday, O’s My

A couple of weeks ago, Jorge Mateo landed on the IL with an elbow injury. Though not a regular, he started at second base every so often. Then, last Wednesday, Jordan Westburg, the former prospect in the midst of a mini breakout, fractured his hand when it was hit by a fastball while batting. No problem thought the Orioles, we’ll just recall two more top prospects!

Jackson Holliday | 2B

Holliday actually made his MLB debut in mid-April at the tender age of 20. Unfortunately, he recorded just two hits in 34 at-bats and posted a microscopic .087 wOBA. The Orioles exercised little patience, demoting him to Triple-A, where he spent the next three-plus months. Once Connor Norby was traded on July 30, Holliday was recalled to serve as the team’s starting second baseman. This time, the team should give him more than 36 plate appearances to prove he’s ready to hit at the MLB level!

Holliday was most recently ranked as the second best overall prospect in baseball. However, his tool grades suggest that he might not be quite ready to be a fantasy star. Of course, his age has a lot to do with that as his scouting grades hint as massive upside. With a 40/55 Hit, 40/60 Game Power, and 45/60 Raw Power grades, the expectation right now is that he should perform decently at the plate, but eventually become a major offensive force. The timing of that jump is always unpredictable, but it could make him a five category contributor.

This year at Triple-A, he showcased incredible plate discipline. In fact, he’s done that everywhere he’s hit during his short professional career. He walked at an absurd 21.7% rate, while striking out 22.3% of the time. He recorded nearly as many walks as strikeouts, which is rare, especially for someone so young for his level. That alone excites me. He has also posted SwStk% marks in the single digits nearly everywhere he has played, except during a stint at Double-A last year, where he was barely into double digits. So far in the Majors, the plate discipline has been missing, and though most of those rates were posted during his first time around. We’ll see how much he improves upon those weak season rates over the remainder of the season.

Moving along to his batted ball profile, he’s typically been pretty ground ball and line drive heavy throughout his career. That’s fantastic for his BABIP potential, but not so much for his home run power. He has posted some exceptional BABIP marks in the minors, including a pair of marks over .400 during small samples at High-A and Double-A last year.

The home run upside isn’t particularly exciting right now. While he has posted perfectly acceptable HR/FB rates in the mid-teens recently, he posted just a 30.4% FB% at Triple-A, which is going to limit his home run potential. His HardHit% of 47.9% is excellent, though oddly pairs with a mediocre maxEV of just 108.2 MPH. That’s not the maxEV I want to see from a future power star. It does support his current scouting grades that suggest the power hasn’t fully developed yet, though I’m surprised he’s still managed mid-to-high teen HR/FB rates at Triple-A. That said, Oriole Park has played significantly better for left-handed home runs than right-handed, so he might actually get a boost from his home park.

Holliday was slapped with a 60/60 Speed grade, but he wasn’t a big runner at Triple-A this year. He swiped eight bases in nine attempts over 346 PAs, equating to about 14 steals in 600 PAs. That’s solid, but perhaps a disappointing total given the speed grade. He was more willing to steal last year though, as he swiped 24 bases in 581 PAs across four different levels. He hasn’t attempted a steal yet in the Majors, so it’s anyone’s guess how much he’ll run.

Overall, he currently appears to be a solid all-around contributor, without standing out in any particular category. Perhaps, something like 10-15 homers and steals, while being neutral in batting average. That’s the type of profile that’s typically undervalued in fantasy leagues as we want a big homer or steal guy, but tend to pass on the guys that give a little of everything. His name and prospect status will ensure he won’t be undervalued, though, meaning he might disappoint some of his owners who expect him to be a league winner for them.

I doubt that’s in the cards, but I do love his future. Those plate discipline skills are rare, especially at such a young age. He has the seeds of all the other skills as well, so with additional development, he could certainly become a fantasy monster over the next couple of years.

Coby Mayo | 3B

It’s about time! After Westburg hit the IL, the assumption was that it was finally Mayo time. Instead, the Orioles promoted Livan Soto last Thursday, while cries for Mayo continued. The very next day, the team recalled Mayo, which begs the question — what on Earth was the reluctance to promote him to begin with?! Whatever the reason, he has finally arrived and figures to take over the starting third base job. I say figures, because he was already pinch hit for on Saturday, which doesn’t bode well for his job security.

Mayo was ranked as the 12th best overall prospect with his calling card being power. He was slapped with 55/70 Game Power and 70/70 Raw Power grades, while his other grades don’t suggest fantasy contributions outside of his power potential. That power was on full display this season at Triple-A, and has been throughout his minor league career.

This year, he posted a 20.2% HR/FB rate, which is actually down from where it had been, as he has cooled considerably and hit just three home runs in July. He still managed to depart Triple-A with a .285 ISO, thanks to a 46.3% FB%. That’s exactly what you want to see from a power hitter…lots of fly balls! His maxEV of 114.9 MPH also matches with his power skills, though it’s interesting that his HardHit% was actually below Holliday’s.

Thanks to a decent strikeout rate and lots of flies, he launched 20 home runs, equating to a 35-homer pace over 600 PAs. He has always been a fly ball hitter through his minor league career, so as long as he sustains that in the Majors, he’ll be a real threat for a 30-home run pace.

Unfortunately, the power might be the only contribution he makes for fantasy leaguers. His strikeout rates have been perfectly solid given his power production, and while he batted .301 at Triple-A this year, that’s highly unlikely to be repeated in the Majors. The thing is, he has mostly posted strong BABIP marks in the minors, but it’s hard to believe that’s sustainable in the Majors. With consistent FB% marks over 40%, it’ll be very difficult to come anywhere close to some of the inflated BABIP marks he has posted. Then again, he has posted above average LD% marks and his IFFB% have been fine.

That said, he’s not going to BABIP .353 in the Majors with that profile. In my unscientific calculation, the average unweighted BABIP of qualified batters with a FB% of at least 40% from 2014 to 2023 was just .286, which is below the league average, compared to .311 for all batters with a FB% below 40%. That’s a big difference!

Since he’s not much of a basestealer and is highly unlikely to boost your batting average, he’s solely a potential home run and RBI contributor right now. That’s not such a terrible thing as we see rookies show up and go on power tears immediately. That could happen here, but the odds are that doesn’t happen and he’ll merely knock some homers while batting .240.

The near-term upside here is probably higher for Mayo than Holliday (even though he just hit his second homer since returning to the Majors), but the latter is a much safer choice. I worry for Mayo’s job security as his defensive reputation isn’t very good, so he might lose at-bats as he’s removed for defensive purposes. And if he doesn’t hit, the Orioles will just go right back to Ramón Urías, who has either been above or below average defensively, depending on which metric you look at.