Closer Handedness Splits

One of the ways a closer can lose his job is to not get hitters out from both sides of the plate. If a right-handed closer is only able to get RHH out consistently, teams will begin to stack the line-up with as many LHH as possible. Here is an in depth look at closer handedness splits.

I got the list of current closers from MLB Depth Charts a couple of days ago. Currently, several teams have shaky situations at closer, so this list will likely change before the beginning of Spring Training. I will try to give an update on it with the changes later.

To start off, here are the closers, their current team, throwing arm, FIP and TBF for LH and RH hitters. Additionally, I calculated the % of RHH the pitcher faced and the difference in their FIP. Only data from 2002 and later was used because the data at Fangraphs only goes back that far.

			vs LHH		vs RHH
Name	Team	Hand	FIP	TBF	FIP	TBF	% RHH	FIP Difference
Jim Johnson	Orioles	R	3.47	531	3.82	565	51.6%	0.35
Andrew Bailey	Red Sox	R	3.55	336	1.98	346	50.7%	1.57
Mariano Rivera	Yankees	R	2.49	1318	2.61	1335	50.3%	0.12
Kyle Farnsworth	Rays	R	4.27	1134	3.52	1448	56.1%	0.75
Sergio Santos	Blue Jays	R	3.01	221	2.94	274	55.4%	0.07
Matt Thornton	White Sox	L	2.71	809	3.86	1137	58.4%	1.15
Chris Perez	Indians	R	4.30	404	3.91	520	56.3%	0.39
Jose Valverde	Tigers	R	4.24	1070	2.87	1103	50.8%	1.37
Joakim Soria	Royals	R	2.77	653	3.03	625	48.9%	0.26
Matt Capps	Twins	R	4.18	745	3.66	956	56.2%	0.52
Jordan Walden	Angels	R	2.08	171	3.51	147	46.2%	1.43
Brian Fuentes	Athletics	L	2.82	730	4.12	1703	70.0%	1.30
Brandon League	Mariners	R	4.58	682	3.41	759	52.7%	1.17
Joe Nathan	Rangers	R	3.04	1029	2.40	1126	52.3%	0.64
Craig Kimbrel	Braves	R	1.53	188	1.52	206	52.3%	0.01
Heath Bell	Marlins	R	2.85	959	2.98	1012	51.3%	0.13
Frank Francisco	Mets	R	3.67	684	3.53	738	51.9%	0.14
Jonathan Papelbon	Phillies	R	2.51	913	2.71	816	47.2%	0.20
Drew Storen	Nationals	R	2.63	222	3.77	313	58.5%	1.14
Carlos Marmol	Cubs	R	4.03	841	3.54	1142	57.6%	0.49
Ryan Madson	Reds	R	4.17	1235	3.28	1428	53.6%	0.89
Juan Abreu	Astros	R	11.60	13	1.41	21	61.8%	10.19
John Axford	Brewers	R	2.11	275	2.54	301	52.3%	0.43
Joel Hanrahan	Pirates	R	4.00	667	3.06	809	54.8%	0.94
Jason Motte	Cardinals	R	4.24	285	2.86	475	62.5%	1.38
J.J. Putz	Diamondbacks	R	3.67	933	2.85	976	51.1%	0.82
Rafael Betancourt	Rockies	R	3.83	974	2.48	1279	56.8%	1.35
Kenley Jansen	Dodgers	R	2.00	144	1.59	183	56.0%	0.41
Huston Street	Padres	R	3.64	769	2.69	979	56.0%	0.95
Brian Wilson	Giants	R	3.17	647	3.00	718	52.6%	0.17

Notes

– I would put no stock in Juan Abreu’s results. Thirty-four hitters is not enough of a sample size. Sergio Santos, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel and Jordan Walden all have less than 500 TBF in their careers. Generally, it takes around 500 PA to get a good idea of a pitcher’s K% and BB%, which are major components of FIP. The trio’s results should be heavily regressed to the league mean. For the rest of the discussion, I will not be using these 5 in the calculations.

– The two left handed closers, Brian Fuentes and Matt Thornton, struggled against RHH compared to LHH. Teams have noticed this difference with Fuentes. Seventy percent of the hitters he faces are RHH. Because there are many good RHH that a team can use, I would stay away from any LH closers. Like the 5 pitchers with a small sample size, I will not use these 2 when doing futher calculations.

– Of the other 23 closers left, 5 have a split of over 1.00 FIP

Andrew Bailey: 1.57
Jason Motte: 1.38
Jose Valverde: 1.37
Rafael Betancourt: 1.35
Brandon League: 1.17

Historically, these 5 will be faced more RHH (~55%) than LHH. They have some ability to get out of inning if a couple of LHH string together some hits hits because of the number of RHH they will eventually face.

The two pitchers that I see red flags with are Andrew Bailey and Brandon League. Bailey will not have the luxury of working through a string of rough outings without getting pulled as the closer. The Red Sox will not have the patience with him losing games. The Yankees lineup especially could cause him a ton of issues since it is LH heavy. Brandon League’s issue is that he is not a good reliever to begin with and the split just compounds the problem.

– Seven pitchers have a handedness split of less than 0.4

Jim Johnson: -0.35
Joakim Soria: -0.26
Jonathan Papelbon: -0.2
Heath Bell: -0.13
Mariano Rivera: -0.12
Frank Francisco: 0.14
Brian Wilson:0.17

This group of pitchers contain some of the best relievers in the game. A good reliever with a small split seems to be a good bet for long career as a closer.

Conclusion

Truthfully, I expected to find a little more useful data on handedness splits to help fantasy owners stay way from certain pitchers. I found only a few useful pieces of data (stay away from LH closers and Andrew Bailey), but that was about it. I think handedness splits may be more of a issue with setup men moving into the closers role. The setup men may be facing only a certain handedness of hitter to maximize their effectiveness. As a closer though, they will have to face whoever is due up in the 9th inning and the split will be exposed.