Chris Archer Slides His Way Back Into Elite

While his ERA only dropped marginally from 2014, last year Chris Archer vaulted into the elite, thanks to pumping up his slider usage, which dramatically boosted his strikeout rate. Unfortunately, the 2016 season did not begin the way he, or his owners, imagined it would. He ended the month of June with an ugly 4.76 ERA, his control had deteriorated, and he was giving up homers like never before. So how did he cure his issues? By throwing even more sliders, of course. Let’s break down his season into two parts, which seem to correlate with the time he further upped his slider usage.

Last year, Archer threw his slider 39.2% of the time, which is right in line with his full season usage this year of 39.5%. In his first 16 games, he threw the pitch a bit less than last year, at 35.3% of the time. Over the last 12 games, however, he has decided the heck with the future health of his arm, he’s just going to throw as many sliders as he could until his arm literally separates from his body. So more sliders he threw, and his usage jumped to 45%. If he kept up that pace all year, he would finish the season with the highest slider rate among all qualified pitchers since we have data going back to 2002. That’s a lot of sliders!

So with all these extra sliders, let’s see how they affected his peripherals.

There is an interesting combination of three metrics to focus on — F-Strike%, SwStk%, and O-Swing%. He has been throwing fewer first pitch strikes during his slider-happy games, but he’s generating more swings and misses and also swings outside the strike zone. That jump in O-Swing% likely provides some of the explanation behind his improved walk rate, despite fewer first pitch strikes. And hey, maybe it has helped his BABIP drop below .300 as well. Predictably, his strikeout rate has increased and his overall skills package is better, as described by SIERA.

Earlier in the season, Archer suffered from a severe bout of gopheritis. He had never struggled with this malady before, so you had to figure it was caused by some combination of randomness/bad luck, or if it was mostly deserved, he would quickly adjust and start keeping his fly balls in the yard. Basically, there was little chance his HR/FB rate would stay this high. And sure enough, it has dropped some and his 12-game HR/FB rate is now identical to the full season MLB average mark.

Earlier in the season, I was hesitant to consider Archer a true buy low candidate because of his inflated walk rate. Fewer strikes + more walks = elbow injury? When you also consider all the sliders he throws, the story line made sense, that his elbow was barking and the news was going to come out sooner or later, sending him to the DL, perhaps for an extended stay. But there have been no whispers about his elbow, he has remained healthy (as far as we know) and his walk rate in this latest 12-game stretch is back to normal. His strike percentage has also risen from 61.8% to 63.9%. So it appears that the Archer v 2015 is back, with a slightly more slider-heavy repertoire.

As an Archer owner, this is good news. But you have to be shaking in your boots if you own him in a keeper league. All of these sliders must be taking a toll on his arm, right? Amazingly, he has never landed on the DL or even missed any time with an injury. So far, so good. But can it possibly last?

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