Checking in on Bold Predictions

I posted my Bold Predictions back on April 3rd and with many of my colleagues checking in on theirs, I decided to give it a go as well and see where I stand with my 10 predictions.

JAMES PAXTON IS A TOP-15 ARM.

The injury hurt, but this one is still very much in play. He ranks 26th on ESPN’s Player Rater with a 3.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 28% K, and 8% BB in 87.3 IP. Obviously to be a full on win, he needs to get up into the top 15, but if he finishes anywhere in the top 25 or so, I’ll feel good about this one.

He was being taken as the 39th starter on average in NFBC leagues so he wasn’t completely off the radar by any means, but I definitely feel like I was one of the highest on a Paxton breakout. I was concerned in his first few starts off the DL, but he’s looked really sharp since I posted that piece with a 3.13 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 38 Ks in 31.7 IP.

KEVIN GAUSMAN STRIKES OUT 200 BATTERS.

LOL.

FRANCISCO LIRIANO DOES, TOO.

BAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

CARLOS MARTINEZ POSTS A 2.50 OR BETTER ERA.

He was tracking very nicely before a pair of 5 ER outings heading into the break, but he bounced back with a 7 IP/2 ER gem at Pittsburgh over the weekend. This one will be tough to come through, but I still think he has a chance to be a sub-3.00 ERA guy and that works for me. He probably has about 95 innings left this year and while he wouldn’t exactly have to be 2015 second half Jake Arrieta, he’d have to be elite to come through on a 2.50 season ERA. He could allow all of 15 earned runs in the 95 innings to finish with a 2.51 ERA which technically would still fall short, so I’d need an extra inning or just 14 earnies.

MICHAEL WACHA LOGS 200 STRONG INNINGS.

This one isn’t happening from the innings standpoint. He only has 85.7 so far this year and the most we saw in the second half from anyone last year was 110 from Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello. That said, I’d take 180 strong innings and give myself half-credit for a win. That’s the benefit of being the grader on your own test, right?

Joking aside, the idea was of course to take a shot on Wacha, who was being drafted as the 85th starter off the board. He started strong (2.74 ERA through 7), hit a lull (8.17 in his next 6), but has since rebounded (1.53 in his last 3). His 4.10 ERA for the season slots 45th among 98 pitchers with at least 80 innings.

BLAKE TREINEN BECOMES A STUD CLOSER.

This one is still coming true now that he’s in Oakland! ? OK, this one is a major loss, but I will keeping an eye on him in Oakland this year and beyond. Maybe I’m just a sucker for that disgusting sinker. By the way, he won’t even be closing Oakland unless Santiago Casilla is moved.

DELINO DESHIELDS IS THIS YEAR’S JONATHAN VILLAR.

OK, not quite. DeShields is way short on the power component, but even if he had a power surge, he’d still be a little shy on speed. That said, he’s probably closer than you realize If he had Villar’s 2016 playing time, he’d be pacing for 56 SB, compared to the 62 that Villar swiped a year ago. Perhaps more interesting is that Villar has completely folded. He has a paltry .221/.284/.345 line with 8 HR and 18 SB in 318 PA.

ADDISON RUSSELL GOES .280-30-100.

So, about that. Russell is hitting .233 with 9 HR and 32 RBI. Moving on.

JOC PEDERSON GOES .270-35-20.

I’ve moved on from thinking Pederson will bring his minor league speed to the majors. He’s Colby Rasmus 2.0 at this point. Rasmus was a five category guy in the minors and even ran a bit very early in his career, but he eventually developed into a strong-side platoon power hitter with solid defense. That’s where Pederson is right now which is perfectly fine. He’ll vacillate between 2.5-5 wins and maybe spike a 6-win season when he runs hot against lefties. Solid player, bona fide starter, but there aren’t levels of growth here.

MARCELL OZUNA HITS 35 HOME RUNS.

What’s the phrase, “Save the best for last”? He has already matched his 2016 HR total (23) and he’s six shy of his RBI total (70) in 219 fewer plate appearances. The 26-year old outfielder was tracking for a breakout season last year when injury struck and derailed his second half. The major key behind his surge this year is thrashing righties. He has a career-best .964 OPS with 21 HR, matching his combined HR total versus righties from 2015-16 in 880 PA.