Changes in Home Run and Fly Distance from 2010 to 2011

Many players show a power increase in the form of higher HRs, SLG and ISO from one season to the next. Today, I am using MLB batted ball data to see which players showed an actual increase in home run and fly distances from 2010 to 2011. This data helps show if there was an underlying talent change from 2010 to 2011.

To get the values, I used batted ball data that MLB provides. It is the data seen on spray charts during games and on their website. The data is not perfect. It is not close to perfect. Right now, it is the best publicly available batted ball data.

If you want to look at the data for any player or over any time frame, you can goto:
http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/graph/
User: fangraphs
PW: Dave (capital D)
Click on: Angle and Distance of a Hitter’s Batted Balls
Enter in the player and parameters.

Using the data, I took the players with a total of 50 fly balls and home runs in each of 2010 and 2011. Then, I compared the differences. Here are the players with the biggest gains and losses from 2010 to 2011 (link to all the players).

Name	2010 Avg Distance	2011 Avg Distance	Diff
Hudson Orlando	268	301	33
Napoli Mike	291	313	22
Stanton Michael	302	322	20
Wood Brandon	264	282	18
Sandoval Pablo	276	293	17
Santiago Ramon	251	265	14
Kendrick Howie	276	290	13
Cabrera Melky	263	276	13
Avila Alex	289	301	13
Werth Jayson	290	302	12
Howard Ryan	298	309	11
Hardy J.J.	277	288	11
Bourn Michael	268	278	10
Betancourt Yuniesky	269	278	9
Reyes Jose	260	268	8
Hart Corey	308	316	8
Willingham Josh	284	292	8
Martin Russell	280	288	7
Molina Yadier	280	287	7
Andrus Elvis	252	259	7
Ruiz Carlos	269	275	7
Wigginton Ty	293	300	7
Cabrera Asdrubal	273	280	6
Kinsler Ian	270	276	6
Pierre Juan	241	246	6
Renteria Edgar	270	275	6
Hamilton Josh	310	287	-23
Smoak Justin	304	280	-23
Sanchez Gaby	290	266	-24
Kelly Don	284	259	-25
Ramirez Hanley	302	277	-25
Fukudome Kosuke	296	271	-25
Rios Alex	285	260	-25
Morneau Justin	290	264	-26
Uribe Juan	295	270	-26
Rodriguez Alex	302	276	-26
Torres Andres	296	270	-27
Cedeno Ronny	293	266	-27
Crisp Coco	294	266	-27
Dunn Adam	315	286	-29
Iannetta Chris	303	274	-29
Zimmerman Ryan	309	280	-29
Byrd Marlon	296	267	-29
Rolen Scott	300	270	-30
Lowrie Jed	298	267	-32
Soto Geovany	318	283	-35

Here are my thoughts on some of the players.

Mike Stanton – A 21-year-old power stud in the making. He may be able to carry a team to the HR title. Did I mention he is 21?

Juan Pierre, Ramon Santiago and others – Just because a player increases their batted ball distances, it doesn’t mean they will actually see any meaningful power increase in their stats. They just don’t hit the ball far enough to matter.

Howie Kendrick – He saw a nice increase in power last season with 18 HRs vice 10 in 2010. Also, his ISO was up from 0.128 to 0.179. There seems to be some legitimacy behind his power uptick.

Jayson Werth – He was hitting the ball in 2011 further with worse results than the previous season. Can anyone say, “Park factors.”

Alex Rodriguez, Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Morneau and others – The list of players showing a power loss is littered with hitters that played through some kind of injury in 2011. I am not sure which will rebound and by how much in 2012, but they are some great buy low candidates.

Hopefully the preceding data can be another tool in helping find some fantasy gems in 2012. Tomorrow, I will look at some players that changed their batted ball distance mid season.