Chad’s Mistakes Made, Lessons Learned

Chatting with Jake Mailhot about our plans for the off-season, he mentioned something his kid talked about: learning from her mistakes. First of all, that’s some A-plus parenting, Jake. But then Jake took it a step further and suggested that if his daughter could learn from her mistakes, so could we. So here are five numbers that represent mistakes I made this year and the lessons I learned.

477.7 Points

This is the buffer I would have had over 6th place in Ottoneu league 32 had I simply filled out my games played and innings pitched instead of giving up on 2025 as early as I did. 6th place isn’t the world’s most important place, but it is enough to make a team eligible for the Ottoneu Prestige League. I also would have been within about 1,000 points of third place, and in this league, that would have meant earning a prize.

That 1,000 points isn’t a small amount to make up, but consider a few things:

1. Because I turned my focus to the future, I stopped rostering RP depth and probably threw around 30 fewer relief innings than I could have had I been making a run. Turning 30 SP innings into 30 RP innings is worth a good 90 points.
2. Because I turned my attention to the future, I didn’t add present value in auctions. I had a couple of very weak positions where I chose to stick with long-term value rather than going and getting immediate production. I waited on Francisco Alvarez and rolled with Austin Wells at catcher. I waited on an injured Isaac Paredes at 3B while rolling out Otto Kemp and Matt Shaw. I waited on Jordan Westburg while using Thomas Saggese at 2B. I could have made upgrades at those positions – even just adding more productive free agents or streaming guys on hot streaks probably would have been enough to add another 100 points or so.
3. Because I wasn’t close to innings limit, I didn’t get my “soft cap day” to go get 1520-ish innings, leaving another 80 or so points on the table.

Now, that still leaves me well short of the top 3, but is that enough to start thinking about buying.

The mistake made: I gave up on the season too early. The lesson learned: remember that your team can improve, that you can make moderate changes via auctions to really help, and that just filling out your games played and innings pitched can make a huge difference.

17 Empty Lineup Spots

As for why I gave up on that league so early, this stat is telling. From April 1-7, I left 17 lineup spots open. That’s more than two a day. That pace is too high to try to make up later in the season. Had I stopped the bleeding there, maybe I could have put myself in a better position, but instead I ended up so far behind the pace that it looked nearly impossible to make up the gaps. And it was “gaps” – this wasn’t just falling behind at OF or C, which are easiest to catch up at, or tanking MI which is a relatively weak position for most teams. I was falling behind all over the diamond.

In Ottoneu points leagues, staying on – or ideally ahead – of the games played pace is really important and that requires depth. And I just didn’t have enough depth. Or at least not the right depth. As of April 7, my roster included:

• Westburg, Brett Baty, and Shaw as 2B options.
• Pavin Smith, Jhonkensy Noel, Jordan Beck, Kyle Stowers, Garrett Mitchell, Parker Meadows, and Colton Cowser to cover at least two OF spots.
• Paredes at 3B with only those 2B-eligible guys behind him.

Those are all players I felt good about rostering but there is a pattern here: at all three spots, my backup options all had question marks. They didn’t have jobs or they didn’t have strong track records or they had obvious platoon issues or they were hurt when the season started. The upside was fun, and there is a world in which Noel mashes, Meadows is healthy, Baty gets off to a hot start, and that team is rolling. But I didn’t give myself a high enough floor.

The mistake made: I fell far behind the games place early and couldn’t make it up. The lesson learned: be sure your lineup depth is reliable. Even if it isn’t all high upside. Even if it isn’t all that good. Guys you can count on getting playing time can help you stay at or above the pace.

Three SP with Double Digit Salaries

And none over $20. And none who I should have been considering a locked-in ace. This was in league 1 and as of the start of the season, my three highest paid pitchers were Luis Castillo ($19), Michael King ($15), and Jared Jones ($10). My other SP were Sandy Alcantara, Tylor Megill, Gavin Williams, Bowden Francis, Kumar Rocker, and Spencer Arrighetti. Again, there is real upside there, and some of that upside (Williams and Megill) paid off. But the “anchors” in that rotation were either in decline (Castillo) or lacking much track record (King and Jones). Then you again have a bunch of dice roles. Even Alcantara, who has an impressive track record, was coming off injury and could only be considered a question mark. By the end of the season, that team had 20 points from hitting and only 9 points from pitching. That was after selling, but – as you can imagine – selling didn’t make that pitching worse than it already was.

The pitching was just so bad from the start, the team never had a shot.

The mistake made: Going into the season without an ace, or even really a reliable #2. The lesson learned: Be more willing to spend on SP. I have consistently built rotations with limited investment in this league and it has, at times, worked well for me. But it’s a risky play and it has burned me too many times.

$129 in 15 Minutes

That is how much I dropped on two players at the start of the auction for league 1199. Buying Juan Soto and Manny Machado may feel like a good way to start an auction, but that team didn’t do particularly well. That’s not the fault of either of those two, but I found the auction to be a challenge. I needed too much and even with the money to spend I had to either go stars-and-scrubs or try to play the middle-tier of the auction to build a deeper roster. I went big at the top and it didn’t work.

The mistake made: Blew my budget early at the auction, grabbing too players and not giving myself enough leftover cash to build a winning team. The lesson learned: Don’t rely on the auction. Come into the auction with a team you think is nearly complete and round it out, rather than needing to do real work in the auction.

10.7 vs. 4.5

That was my average score in the pitching counting stats in league 1443 vs. my average score in the pitching rate stats. I finished 2nd in wins, 2nd in saves, and 3rd in Ks, but 9th in WHIP and 8th in ERA. I also finished second by 4.5 total points. If I could have given up a few saves and a few wins and a bunch of K to get better rates, I might have been able to close that gap or even finish in first. But early in the season, I was chasing innings, maybe thinking too much like I do in a points league vs. 5×5 and so I got the balance all wrong.

The mistake made: Over-indexing on counting stats in a 5×5 league. The lesson learned: Yes, there are three counting stats and only two rate stats. Yes, you are better off with big volume and mediocre pitching than with mediocre volume and good pitching, but you need to make sure you get the balance right. If you have to take fewer K to keep that ERA in check, that might be worth it.