Chad Young’s 2026 Bold Predictions

Bold prediction season is my favorite sub-season within draft season. Way ahead “we are drafting way too early season” and just barely edging out “prospect ranking season.” The worst sub-season within draft season is “pitchers and catchers reported two days ago and now every news alert is an injury” season. I hate that season.

But bold prediction season is the best. It brings out the absolute best of the baseball world. Everyone is putting a stake in the ground for the players they love. People are being wildly optimistic, because it is spring and it’s getting warmer out and the season hasn’t started yet so anything is possible. It just doesn’t get more fun than this.

And so here are my ten bold predictions. I did my best to rank them from coldest to boldest, but you tell me if I went too soft on any of these.

Ozzie Albies sets a career-high in steals. Albies stole 20 bases in 2021 and hasn’t gotten back to 15 since then. While he is almost universally projected for double-digit steals (THE BATX says is the outlier at just nine), no system on his player page projects him for more than 12. I think he has a good shot to double that. There are tw0 reasons:

1. While Albies has run less recently, he has still been a very effective base stealer. He had a very poor running year in 2022, but since then he has stolen 35 bases and been caught only five times. When he runs, he is successful.
2. Atlanta barely ran last year (26th in MLB in stolen base attempts), and despite what seems to have been an organizational decision to stay put, Albies was second on the team in both attempts and successful steals. On a team that didn’t run, he ran more than most. Atlanta seems well-aware of how little they ran and they went out and poached a first base coach – Antoan Richardson – who is known for helping teams steal more often and more effectively.

The top ten catchers in Ottoneu FanGraphs points per game (400+ PA) will include at least three players whose average salary in first year leagues is $5 or less. I like to make my predictions easy to evaluate after the season – a clearly defined thing that will or won’t happen – which is why I phrased this the way I did, instead of saying this: you can wait on catcher and still get top-tier production. There are currently eight catchers going for $10+ in first-year leagues, and seven more going for more than $5. So I am calling for three catchers other than these guys to end up in the top ten. The candidates I am most excited about are Francisco Alvarez ($4.60), Gabriel Moreno ($4.50), and Yainer Diaz ($3.50). All three are still relatively young, have shown flashes of tremendous upside, and their costs are deflated after disappointing seasons. But there are others – Logan O’Hoppe has big power; Bo Naylor seemed to be breaking out after a swing adjustment last September, Moises Ballesteros has huge potential, Ryan Jeffers is always underrated.

Kenley Jansen has 30+ saves. Jansen is projected for 22-23 saves and hasn’t cracked 30 since 2022. Of course, 2022 was also the last time he was on a team that finished over .500, as the Tigers almost certainly will. His new manager, AJ Hinch, has a reputation for using closer committees and he has multiple teammates who can close. But it is not like Hinch has been unwilling to get a guy to 30 saves. He had closers with 30 saves in 2015, 2017, and 2022. In 2023 and 2024 he had closers with 26 and 28 saves – and those weren’t particularly good or well-established closers. Many of those other years, his teams were bad, or his bullpen was bad, or both. The only time he has had a pitcher who really deserved to be a capital-C Closer, Roberto Osuna led the league in saves. And Jansen just is a 9th inning guy. In 2025, he made two appearances in the 8th that didn’t extend into the 9th. In both cases, he hadn’t thrown in 5+ days and the team was losing on the road, so he was just getting work in what was still the last inning. The pattern was the same in 2024, with one exception. Jansen is 24 saves short of 500, which probably punches his ticket to Cooperstown, which contributed to Hinch strongly suggesting that Jansen is the closer. Fantasy managers seem set on assuming a committee in Detroit. And, yes, other pitchers will get chances. But Jansen is the closer, and he is still a good enough pitcher to hold that job and lock down 30+.

The Colorado Rockies have three outfielders return $10 of value in all Ottoneu formats. In auctions so far this year, Brenton Doyle has cost $5.98 on average, Mickey Moniak has cost $5.60, and Jordan Beck $4.48. Those are the three I am most interested in, but Jake McCarthy ($1.29) and Zac Veen ($2.30) could make this true, as well. How are they going to ALL double their value? Easy – they are being undervalued. Last year, here are the 2025 games played and dollar values for four not-so-random outfielders.

These are the four outfielders who had the highest P/G in FanGraphs Points scoring while playing between 70 and 80 games. If you use those Rockies outfielders only at Coors, you can get that same 70-80 game sample and very high performance. In 2025, Stanton, Anthony, Profar and Varsho had wOBA’s of .354, .372, .325, and .327 respectively. At home, Doyle was .359, Beck .352, and Moniak .396. Veen barely played and McCarthy is new to Coors, but I expect they’ll fair perfectly well at home. Plus, while none of the four players in the table above had double digit steals, Beck and Doyle both got into double digits in their home games alone, and McCarthy seems extremely likely to do that, as well. Given those comps, getting any of these guys at their current prices is a great value.

Thomas Saggese posts a .330 wOBA in 450+ PA. Saggese’s wOBA projections range from .286 to .294, so .330 feels pretty spicy, right? And Roster Resource has him at 203 PA. The second part of this prediction, though, is the easy part. If I get the first part right, he’ll cruise to 450 PA – the Cardinals just aren’t good or deep enough to bench a guy who hits like that. Where does this breakout come from? Fastballs. In 2025, Saggese had a .243 wOBA against fastballs. League average was .338. He hit splitters and changeups much better than league average (.351 vs. .272). Same with breakers (.336 vs. .284). He’s doing the hard part. And I think that as he adjusts to MLB, he’ll be fine against fastballs. And given how effective he was against everything else, that should be all he needs.

Yordan Alvarez puts up 1,100 points in Ottoneu points leagues. I wanted to say 1,000 points, because that is a fun round number, but then that prediction is just “Yordan Alvarez is healthy” which is fun, and might in fact be bold, but it isn’t bold so let’s up the ante. Since the shortened 2020 season, only 15 players have had an 1,100 point season, and they have only done it a total of 25 times (seven of the 25 seasons are Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani). Only twice has a player put up 1,100 points without playing 150+ games. Post-2020, Alvarez has put up 7.03 P/G, which would require 157 games played to get to 1,100 points. If you only consider his 2022-2024 peak seasons, he was at 7.56 P/G, which requires 146 games to get to 1,100. His career best P/G is 7.67 and that would require 144 games to get to 1,100. His career high is 147 games played. So this prediction requires him to basically be at his best – or maybe better – and be as healthy as he has ever been – or maybe healthier – all in the same season. Alvarez is supposed to be healthy and ready to rock. At 28-years-old, he should be right in his prime. His down year in 2025 came with his customary elite xwOBA. This is the year he does it all.

Tyler Glasnow crosses the 800 point threshold in Ottoneu FanGraphs Point Scoring. You may not be aware, but Tyler Glasnow is a pretty good pitcher. He isn’t treated like an elite fantasy arm (with good reason), going outside the top 120 over at NFBC and barely cracking $15 on average in first-year Ottoneu leagues. The “good reason” he is relatively inexpensive to acquire? His health. Glasnow has cracked 100 IP as an MLB pitcher only thrice and was limited to 90 innings last year. It’s not hard to wonder how much health has taken a toll on Glasnow – maybe that is why his Stuff+ dropped so much last year? But, he is healthy now and is discussing mechanical tweaks he thinks will help keep him healthy. Getting to 800 points requires him to put up a near-career-best season on a per-IP basis (something around 6.25-6.5 P/IP) and in terms of total innings (over 120). Of course, he could get there by being even better on one of those numbers – and that is what I am betting on. I think we get the first 140 IP season of Glasnow’s career, coupled with a rebound in his per-IP performance, as well. If you don’t play Ottoneu and aren’t sure what these points mean, think 2021-24 Glasnow but in 140+ innings.

George Kirby is a top 5 SP in all Ottoneu scoring systems. I have been a Kirby fan since his prospect days, to the point that my wife (who is not really a baseball fan), more or less pushed me into going to Kirby’s MLB debut with her and the kids…on Mother’s Day. So I might be biased here. But Kirby, who is the 13th or 14th most expensive starter in Ottoneu auctions this year (depending on whether or not you count Shohei Ohtani), is primed for a huge year. Last year was a bit ugly, but Kirby ended the season brilliantly. In September, he had a 30.7% K%-BB% and continued to look great under the hood in October. Through that entire stretch, he pitched into bad luck, but don’t let that fool you. Kirby was in a groove. Kirby always limits walks, he doesn’t give up too many homers, and I think we are going to see him push up his K-rate this year. He’s also thrown 190+ innings two of the last three years, and I think he can do that again.

Kyle Manzardo is a top 10 first baseman in Ottoneu points leagues (top 10 by P/G, 500+ PA). I want to clarify that by first baseman, I mean a player who is used primarily at first. Multi-position guys need not apply. Manzardo wasn’t close to this last year – but maybe not as far as you think. Among players currently slated to be primarily-1B in Ottoneu, Manzardo’s 2025 4.49 P/G. Getting to the top 10 probably requires getting to Josh Naylor’s 5.7 P/G, which sat 10th last year. And he’ll get there with power. Manzardo does a very good job of converting his swing into good-to-great contact. In 2025, he had 76th percentile sweet spot rate, 74th percentile barrel rate, 55th percentile squared up rate, but he did that all without particularly impressive bat speed. He was well below MLB average in both average bat speed (70.6 vs. 71.7 mph) and fast-swing rate (8.0% was 23.6%). Both of those numbers were stronger in 2024, but in 2025 his fastest swings were just as fast as they were in 2024. He just didn’t get close to that max as often. Well, this year, I think he gets into his top end more. Manzardo added 15 pounds of muscle this offseason. That follows a slight tweak to his swing last year (see that same link) that led to a nice bump in second-half performance (126 wRC+ and 5.1 P/G vs. 102 wRC+ and 4.1 P/G). The explosion is coming.

The Cincinnati Reds provide not one, not two, but THREE top-ten 2B in FanGraphs Points leagues (top 10 by P/G, 500+ PA). The Reds have a bunch of interesting hitters and no obvious home for many of them, leaving a lot of questions about their lineup, including who will start the season at second base. Matt McLain may be putting that debate to bed – he was great in 2024 and has been excellent this March and so the assumption is the job is his to lose, at least for now. But in the meantime, Spencer Steer started at second Wednesday; Sal Stewart started their last Friday. If I were a betting man, my money would be on McLain getting the lion’s share of time at the keystone, but there is enough room in there for Steer and Stewart to both get five starts. Of course that only means they will have three players eligible at the spot. But I also think McLain and Steer are primed for rebound seasons and Stewart will be a legit Rookie of the Year candidate, all while playing in a park that will boost their power. You might not be able to use Steer or Stewart at second base for a while, but by the end of the year, they’ll be among the studs at the position.