When we, the writers of RotoGraphs, were presenting our 10 Bold Predictions, number six on my list was that Jarrod Dyson would lead the American League in stolen bases. I was basing it on his 30 steals in a part-time role last year, that he was opening this season in the bigs as the Royals’ fourth outfielder and that between Lorenzo Cain’s propensity for injury and Jeff Francoeur’s inability to hit, he would see plenty of time in a starting role. Well right now, he’s got six steals which is half of what the current AL leader has, and while Cain has remained surprisingly healthy so far, Francoeur is certainly doing his part to help my cause. If he’s sitting there on your waiver wire, it’s time to pick up Dyson. Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Carter (ESPN: 21.7 percent owned; Yahoo!: 23 percent owned)

In the minor leagues, he never had a full season OPS under .800, nor has he hit fewer than 10 home runs in a season, yet Chris Carter has also never played even half a season in the majors. His power is not really up for discussion; he has hit at every level, including the majors, but his ability to contribute beyond 25-30 home runs a season is what has kept him from getting a serious shot in the majors until this year.

The move to Houston in the offseason was good for Carter’s value in a couple ways. First, unlike Oakland, who has designs on competing for the AL West title again this year, the Astros have a greater incentive to see what he can do given a full year of playing time than they have to sit him if he hits an extended cold spell. Second, given that the vast majority of Carter’s value comes from his HR and RBI potential, heading from one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors to a far more hitter-friendly one should be a boon for his value. Read the rest of this entry »

Picking up injured players can be a risky proposition in fantasy. But depending on your league, taking a shot on an injured guy may be the only way to grab upside without having to pay a significant price. While picking up prospects is sometimes the more enticing strategy, there’s no way of knowing when that player will get their opportunity. Narrowing your search to injured veterans is risky, but at least you’re picking up players who are close to getting guaranteed playing time. Both Francisco Liriano and Matt Garza are close to making their 2013 debuts, and should be targeted by owners who need pitching, and don’t mind taking a few risks.

Read the rest of this entry »

While a month still isn’t the greatest of sample sizes to cast judgment, now is when you have to start making some of the tougher decisions as to whether or not it’s in your team’s best interest to give up on certain players and start picking up guys who can help you in specific categories or if you should just continue to grin and bear it through their hard times. The decision of whether or not to cut someone is a little easier to make (or not make as the case may be) in deeper leagues as the waiver wire is far from flush with talent, but in leagues more shallow, there’s plenty still from which to choose. Here’s a look at two who, based on ownership percentages, could be available in your league… Read the rest of this entry »

Tiptoe along the deep league waiver wire,
Search for a player you want to hire,
With the hope that he catches fire,
Gives you a performance in which you won’t tire,
And is featured in a story by Rob Neyer

::takes a bow:: Thank you, thank you very much. That was my practice round as an aspiring poet. How does my RARP (rhyming above replacement poet) rank?

Read the rest of this entry »

Jason Vargas (ESPN: 15 percent owned; Yahoo!: 16 percent owned)

Despite a number of high profile injuries to pitchers on both sides of the city, there is some good pitching going on in Los Angeles and the surrounding environs. However, unlike Clayton Kersahw and Hyun-jin Ryu, Jason Vargas is actually available in most leagues.

Veras opened the season well against the Rangers, then was absolutely shelled by the A’s and the Twins in back-to-back starts that pushed his ERA up to nearly 7.00 and his WHIP above 2.30. Since then, Vargas has had three consecutive quality starts, having pitched at least seven innings each time, culminating in his complete game shutout of the Orioles on May 3. Read the rest of this entry »

The beginning of May is the perfect time for smart fantasy owners to start playing the waiver wire. After a month, other owners are probably sick of their slow starters, and have already dropped a player or two who has struggled due to small sample luck. In recent seasons, both Michael Morse and Paul Goldschmidt failed to hit in April, and went on to have fantasy breakouts by the time September rolled around. Owners get impatient and either give up on players, or are forced to cut bait too early when injuries strike. Matt Joyce and Brandon McCarthy are two players who may begin to turn things around in May.

Read the rest of this entry »

While you don’t normally put lofty expectations on your catchers to produce big-time fantasy numbers, the slow starts of players such as the Monteros, both Jesus and Miguel, as well as Salvador Perez, have been extremely frustrating for owners thus far. Knowing what they are capable of producing, no one wants to drop them from their roster, but there’s a definite need to pull them from the starting lineup and plug in a more productive option, even if just for a short time. If you have the bench space available to make such a move, then here are a couple of backstops who should be able to help you out. Don’t expect either to be your long term solution, but for right now, they’re worth a look. Read the rest of this entry »

There are good weeks, there are bad weeks, and then there are weeks like the two Aaron Hicks (owned in 1.2 percent of ESPN leagues and 3 percent of Yahoo! leagues) had to start the season. His .042/.179/.042 line over the first 13 games of the season was marred by 20 strikeouts in 56 PAs, and he reached base more often via error (3) than he did by getting a hit (2). It’s not exactly a line that breeds confidence. He managed to be driven in six times, which is somewhat impressive given his incredibly low batting average, and was largely due to the fact that even though he wasn’t hitting, he did walk in 14 percent of his plate appearance.

His ownership started slipping, for obvious reasons, right about the same time there were rumblings that Hicks may need a stint in Triple-A to improve his eye. The Twins did decide that Hicks should no longer lead off, but elected to keep him in the majors. Three games after he was dropped from the leadoff spot in the Twins’ order, Hicks started hitting. Heading into Monday’s game, Hicks had been hitting .300/.375/.350 with just four strikeouts in just 24 PAs. Monday night, he struggled against Max Scherzer, but that’s hardly a unique issue. If that’s the criteria for success or failure, better players than Hicks would fall into that second category. Read the rest of this entry »

Taking a shot on a post-hype sleeper is a great way to find undervalued gems. As we all know by now, prospects don’t always burst out of the gate once they reach the majors. For every Mike Trout, there’s going to be an Alex Gordon. It took Gordon five years before he churned out a fantasy-worthy stat line. In Gordon’s case, fantasy owners pretty much gave up on him ever becoming useful, making him a post post-hype sleeper. While it’s rare for players to follow similar paths, former prospects always draw some interest when they are experiencing success. You may have given up on Travis Snider and Devin Mesoraco by now, but both are finally starting to show some growth in the majors.

Read the rest of this entry »