Read the rest of this entry »

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Will Benson (7): For anyone using weekly projections, Benson jumped off the page as an add. He came in as the week’s 77th-ranked batter. It might not seem like he’s worth adding, but in a 12-team league with 168 batters rostered, Benson is worth 0.2 points in the standings compared to a replacement outfielder. If a similar move is made every week throughout a season, it would theoretically be worth 5.2 spots in the standings.

In leagues with a decent waiver wire, being able to churn one to three spots can be a huge advantage.

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 (6): Kim returned to the Rays and immediately injured himself. Once regularly playing, he could be a difference maker with potential for Steals and Home Runs.

So far, he seems to be trading off power for more contact with some career-low power StatCast numbers in his AAA rehab. Solid gamble.

Colson Montgomery (6): I didn’t believe in Montgomery because of his 34% K% in AAA. If an AAA pitcher dominates a batter, I don’t want him in the majors. While a .500 BABIP in 17 PA has his overall numbers up (.385/.500/.538), his 15.6% SwStr% is 2.5% points higher than his AAA rate.

With all the hitters who were destroying AAA and then struggled in the majors, why would I want one who is getting eaten up by AAA pitching?

Max Muncy (West Sacramento) (5): Experiencing a hot streak (.316/.350/.789 in July) but has struggled (75 wRC+, 32% K%) for most of the season. He has shown more power with 7 HR in 179 PA. I backed off of him and several others A’s because Miguel Andujar (.296/.328/.402) is about to come off the IL. Zack Gelof’s return contributes to the roster crunch.

Francisco Alvarez (5): Sent to AAA, and someone thought it was time to add him for a potential future callup. Wasn’t horrible with a 92 wRC+ (.236/.319/.333). He wasn’t much of a fantasy contributor with 3 HR and 0 SB to go with the .236 AVG in 138 PA.

There may be more to the demotion than just his performance. By keeping Alvarez down until Saturday, the Mets gain another year of control over him.

Unless Alvarez is recalled to the major leagues by Saturday, he will have spent enough time in the minors this season to delay his free agency by a full year. The New York Mets will gain an additional year of team control over the catcher, who wouldn’t become a free agent until after the 2029 season. Alvarez would be a free agent entering his age-28 season, still relatively young to be on the open market.

“I can’t worry about that right now — it’s a lot for me to worry about right now,” Alvarez told The Athletic when approached about the free-agency issue Tuesday before a game in Syracuse. “I didn’t know that, but I feel like I need to just focus on getting better and that’s it.”

…

Alvarez’s demotion was not a surprise, and it wasn’t primarily motivated by the service-time issue. Though trying to incorporate a swing change, the third-year catcher has just six extra-base hits in 35 major-league games. His slugging percentage is 100 points lower than it was as a rookie in 2023.

Starters

Joey Cantillo (9): On Monday, Cantillo made his first major league start of the season, going 3 IP on 68 pitches. The results were similar to his results to date, a good number of strikeouts (5) and walks (3). He has some Will Warren/Tylor Megill vibes. He has good enough stuff to get the strikeouts, but the walks can come back to bite him.

On top of his WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 4.87 ERA, he’s not going deep into games. That might be the Guardians’ plan to limit his innings like the White Sox did with Garrett Crochet last season. Cantillo has never surpassed 119 IP in a single season and only threw 78 IP last season. So far this season, he’s at 47 IP.

Pablo López (6): On the 60-day IL, and the earliest he can come off the IL is early August, after going on the IL on June 5th. This is a pure stash player and could be worth losing the extra roster spot if Lopez returns to pitch like he was before the injury (2.82 ERA, 2.98 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 9.1 K/9).

Sean Burke (5): I wrote the following about Burke in this week’s Waiver Wire article.

Since I wrote the analysis, he faced the Blue Jays and got lit up for 6 ER, 2 K, 3 BB, and 3 HR in 5 IP. He’s likely just a streamer against weaker offenses.

Ryan Gusto (5): Gusto’s (4.61 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 1.44 WHIP) demand is the hope that he replaces Colton Gordon (4.76 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 1.41 WHIP) in the Astros rotation. It seems like Gusto’s been overall better, but he padded his ERA with seven relief appearances (4.92 ERA as SP, 3.29 ERA as RP).

All of Gusto’s struggles have come against lefties. Against righties, he has a 2.49 FIP. Now, against lefties, it’s a 5.86 FIP. Broken down against lefties, it’s a:

4.9 BB/9
2.3 HR/9
.354 BABIP.

If he starts Sunday, he’ll face Texas, which is in the middle of the pack with right-handed batters comprising 57% of their plate appearances.

Logan Allen로건 (5): Allen is scheduled to face the White Sox, so he’s tempting for most fantasy teams to use. His 4.07 ERA is his best trait, with projections and ERA estimators pointing to a mid-4.00 ERA talent. Additionally, his 1.43 WHIP has done as much damage as a 5.10 ERA.

He’s shown a little improvement over his last six starts with his walk rate down from 4.7 BB/9 to 2.8 BB/9.

I get the same feeling as I did with Burke, where I might roster him, but I don’t feel good about.

Relievers

Ronny Henriquez (7): Miami’s closer with some amazing stats (2.72 ERA, 3.17 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, and 12.6 K/9).

Adrian Morejon (5): The lefty is being used in high-leverage spots with some great stats (1.79 ERA, 2.94 xFIP, 8.3 K/9, 0.82 WHIP). My only issue with Morejon is that, being a lefty, he’s likely behind righty Jason Adam for the closer’s role if Robert Suarez falters.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

7:31	Jeff Zimmerman:

Read the rest of this entry »

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Casey Schmitt (9): I misread the situation with Schmitt. With Matt Chapman out, he starts every game at third base. I didn’t see much long-term sustainability, but I ignored Tyler Fitzgerald’s struggles, which got him demoted to AAA. Once Chapman returns, I expect Schmitt (a plus defender) to slide over to second base.

In 108 PA so far this season, Schmitt is batting .284/.364/.453 with 4 HR. The biggest difference for the 26-year-old compared to previous seasons is his .359 BABIP (.259 from ’23 to ’24). He’s hitting the ball harder with his avgEV up 2 mph and his HardHit% up 13% points. He’s trading off some Contact rate (76% to 73%) for the additional power.

Projections aren’t buying the higher BABIP and see a .240 AVG to .250 AVG going forward.

Giancarlo Stanton (8): With Stanton’s home run potential, the demand was going to be high. In the nine games since being recalled, Stanton, started in six of them as the designated hitter, but not three in a row.

In 25 PA so far, he’s batting .304/.360/.348 with a 36% K% (Contact% down from 68% to 65%), .500 BABIP, and 64% GB%. Additionally, his average bat speed is down from 81.2 mph last year to 79.7 mph this season.

He should be held for another week or so to see where his talent stabilizes.

Isaac Collins (8): The 27-year-old started in 10 of the last 11 games while batting .262/.366/.403 with 4 HR and 8 SB. The only stat that could be high is his .337 BABIP. Projections say it should be a .300 BABIP.

Even with a lower batting average, he’s still a solid add based on the playing time and talent.

Gary Sánchez (8): With several catchers getting hurt, Sánchez was one of the few available options. He’s never going to provide speed (career 6 SB) or batting average (career .224 AVG), but hit a decent number of homers.

Brady House (6): Nine straight starts at third base, but not much else (56 wRC+). I’m not sure how he’ll be fantasy relevant. He seems to be below league average in every trait.

Michael Toglia (5): He has started eight straight games since being recalled from AAA. Over those games, he’s batting .303/.343/.667 with 3 HR in 35 PA. No breakout is occurring with Toglia experiencing two better eight-game stretches last season.

The hope is that the team remembers this hot streak and allows him to keep starting.

David Hamilton (5): Hamilton can steal bases (12 SB in 112 PA), but little else (30 wRC+). He should hold down the job until Alex Bregman returns after the All-Star break.

It "looks like" Alex Bregman won't be back until after the All-Star break, Alex Cora said. So that would be July 18 at the earliest.

— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) June 25, 2025

When Bregman returns, Marcelo Mayer (4 HR, 91 wRC+) should move over and play second base.

Pedro Pagés (5): Again, with several catchers getting hurt, the bottom of the barrel was being scraped for options. Pagés provides some power (5 HR in 201 PA) but nothing else (.222 AVG, 0 SB).

Starters

Emmet Sheehan (10): The 25-year-old was great in his debut (4 IP, 6 K, 0 BB, and 1 ER). After the start, the team demoted him to AAA. It’s not obvious when he’ll return. Justin Wrobleski now throws strikes (2.5 BB/9) with ERA estimators in the mid-3.00 range.

Sheehan should be worth an add if a team can handle having him take up a roster spot.

Didier Fuentes (7): Before the 20-year-old righty made his Wednesday start, his stock was higher. The results from that first start were respectable (5 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 6 H, and 4 ER), but his STUPH metrics are off the charts.

Then the Wednesday start happened (3 IP, 6 ER, 1 K, 0 BB, 2 HR). With the disaster, TheBot’s ERA estimator still values him as a 3.33 ERA talent. The Stuff+ values haven’t updated, but he had a 116 Pitching+ pointing to a 3.04 talent.

He attacks batters with his fastball (96 mph, 10% SwStr%), slider, and curve. The results on the slider and curve are worse than his fastball, but the STUPH metrics love both. It’s hard to nail down his value.

One issue is that he’s getting annihilated the second time through the order, likely because his secondary pitches aren’t working.

TTO: K-BB%, BABIP, xFIP, ERA
1st: 22%, .308, 3.26, 4.15
2nd: -6%, .500, 8.63, 27.00

I added him in several leagues, but wasn’t brave enough to start (thank the Spaghetti Monster). It’ll be interesting to see how the team handles him going forward.

Ryan Bergert (7): Most likely added for his start against the Nationals on Tuesday, where he rewarded them with 3 ER, 4 K, 3 BB, and 5 H in 3 IP.

Before the start, he was about as lucky as it could get with .233 BABIP, 0.7 HR/9, and 82% LOB%. For me, his 4.0 BB/9 would have been a sign to stay away, especially with his ERA estimators (4.73 xFIP, 4.63 SIERA) and STUPH values (4.22 botERA, 4.45 Pitching+ ERA) pointing to a mid-4.00 ERA arm.

Janson Junk (6): Junk was limited in how deep he went into games until the last outing (79 pitches). So far this season, he’s posted a 2.60 ERA (2.77 xFIP), 8.1 K/9, and 1.01 WHIP.

He’s been pitching backwards by throwing his slider (46% usage, 15% SwStr%) more than any other pitch. His four-seam has been solid with a 10% SwStr%.

The key for him to keep his value going forward is to limit the walks. He has just two in 27 IP. I expect some regression, but not a ton. His 29% Ball% points to 1.5 BB/9.

Logan Allen로건 (6): For me, his 1.50 WHIP (4.0 BB/9) is unrosterable. It does as much ratio damage as a 5.52 ERA. Fantasy managers added him for his two-step versus Toronto and St. Louis. In the first start, Allen was fine with 4 K, 2 BB, 4 ER, and 8 H in 5.2 IP. We’ll see how the second start goes.

Trevor Rogers (5): After struggling for several seasons to find the strike zone (4.1 BB/9, 1.56 WHIP last season), the 27-year-old is much improved with a 1.6 BB/9 (34% Ball, 2.5 equiv BB/9) so far this season. Additionally, his fastball velocity increased 2 mph (91.7 mph to 93.7 mph). Finally, he’s brought down the usage (24% to 17%) of this horrible sinker (37 botOvr, 78 Pitching+, 2% SwStr%).

The 1.62 ERA and 0.78 WHIP will regress (0.0 HR/9, .213 BABIP, 92% LOB%), but some signs indicate him being a high 3.00 ERA talent.

Justin Wrobleski (6): While a 63% LOB% has him with a 4.91 ERA, he’s been solid with a 3.23 xFIP and 4.32 botERA (difference likely from opponent quality). He has a 8.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 48% GB%. Starters with better numbers in all three categories (min 20 IP) are:

Nathan Eovaldi
Brandon Walter
Max Fried
Logan Webb

He should continue to get chances as long as he gets similar results.

Eric Lauer 라우어 (5): The .222 BABIP won’t last, but even with some regression, signs point to him being a streamable 4.00 ERA talent.

Jack Kochanowicz (5): Some brave souls are running out the 24-year-old righty for his two-step against Boston and Washington. He struggled in his first start with 1 K, 2 BB, 4 ER, and 6 H in 5.0 IP.

There is an argument that Kochanowicz is the worst of the league’s 73 qualified starters. Here is how he ranks in various categories.

Stat: Rank
K-BB%: 70th
ERA: 71st
WHIP: 73rd
xFIP: 65th

I think he was added because a website ranked him as the 89th best pitcher this week. In 15-teamers, 135 pitchers are rostered so deep, the 89th (of 394) guy seems reasonable. The issue is that those values are based on his production just this week. The higher chance for Strikeouts and Wins pushes him (and the other two-start guys) higher than they should be. Using season-long valuations, his projected ERA and WHIP do so much damage; he’s the 370th-ranked pitcher and will be a net negative for the week (usually 50 pitchers project as such).

Relievers

Orion Kerkering (8): In the week before FAAB ran, Kerkering got two Saves and looks to be sharing the closer’s role and possibly could be the closer.

Chris Martin (7): Martin is Texas’s best reliever, and he got a Save on Saturday. Then on Tuesday, he was brought in for the seventh inning when he faced three batters and allowed three home runs. Who knows his role.

Grant Taylor (6): The 23-year-old righty got the Save on Sunday, so the hope was that he’s now the White Sox’s closer. On Wednesday, he came in the seventh inning and threw two innings, getting a Hold. He’s for sure being used in high-leverage situations.

He attacks batters with a 99-mph fastball (23% SwStr%) and a cutter and curve. The STUPH models love the two secondaries, but the results haven’t been the best on them. He hasn’t generated one swing-and-miss on the curve yet.

7:32	Jeff Zimmerman:

Read the rest of this entry »

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »