Derek Holland is back. Two starts in, things look pretty good. He still owns a 4.30 career ERA, and is coming off of major knee surgery. Is there anything in his profile that should make us worry?
On 9/3, I posted Adjusting Fantasy Value with expected (x)BABIP and xHR. These were used to adjust batting average, OBP, SLG and OPS for your different leagues’ formats.
Based on xBABIP, Michael Brantley and Anthony Rendon jumped in value sandwiching in Mike Trout as the top 3 adjusted Fantasy Values for standard 5×5 formats (HR, SB, R, RBI and AVG).
Here, I’ll attempt to verify the BABIP potential for standard 5×5 leagues. I am therefore using column 2 (sum of the 5×5 descriptive/actual z-scores: HR, SB, R, RBI and AVG) and comparing it to column 3 (sum of the 5×5 expected z-scores: xHR, SB, R, RBI and xAVG). SB, R and RBI are not adjusted even though they should be so consider this a way to play down the overall effect.
With the minor league regular season now over, this marks the end of this series but you can read the previous pieces here: the Impact Catchers, the Impact First Basemen, the Impact Second Basemen, the Impact Third Basemen, the Impact Shortstops, the Impact Corner Outfielders, the Impact Center-fielders, the Impact RH Starting Pitchers (Tier 1) and the Impact RH Starting Pitchers (Tier 2). Keep an eye out next week as my annual “A Minor Review of…” series gets under way and reviews the 2014 season for all 30 clubs. Read the rest of this entry »
Tigers closer Joe Nathan hasn’t had the type of season fantasy owners were expecting. While Nathan has notched 32 saves, things haven’t come easy. Through 50 innings, Nathan has a 5.04 ERA. The performance has been somewhat of a shock. Yes, there were some reasons to be concerned about Nathan entering the year, but it’s safe to say no one expected him to struggle this much. One of the main reasons for concern entering the season was Nathan’s age. It’s tough for any player to be dominant at age-39. Are Nathan’s struggles a product of his age, or is there more going on here?
I began the year at RotoGraphs by producing a semi-regularly-updated Top 25 prospects list. For the second half of the year and into the offseason, I’ll be rotating expanded Top 10, 12 or 15 lists (on a far more regular basis) by position: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF/RF, CF, RHSP (tier 1), RHSP (tier 2), LHSP. Whether you play traditional formats of fantasy baseball or dynasty/keeper styles (or you’re just a prospect nut like me), you’ll surely find these lists indispensable. You can read the Impact Catchers, the Impact First Basemen, the Impact Second Basemen, the Impact Third Basemen, the Impact Shortstops, the Impact Corner Outfielders, the Impact Center-fielders and the Impact RH Starting Pitchers (Tier 1). Read the rest of this entry »
I wanted to highlight Pitcher over and under performers. Naturally, Mike Podhorzer has already done that and more concisely and eloquently than I ever could. In conjunction to what he did (ERA vs. SIERA within this year), I wanted to look at pitchers’ skills and luck relative to last year.
By “skills” I mean K%-BB%, combined Contact% and SwStr%, GB/FB and IFFB%. These columns are in green.
By “luck” I mean BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB. These are in some emotional shade of red.
I took all the 2014 vs. 2013 differentials and z-scored them. I summed them up and presented them under column 3 (“SKILL”) and column 4 (“LUCK”). In short, these are not their skill and luck scores for 2014, but their change relative to 2013…in relation to how much everyone else from this list changed (50 IP qualifier).
This week’s Change is about a missing changeup. Mike Minor’s changeup, to be specific. It’s half the pitch it used to be, and as a lefty facing many righties, that’s a big problem. Sure, the curve/cutter combo could be enough for Minor to continue being a major league starter, but as he’s in the midst of a bout of homeritis (that has plagued him on and off in his career), it’s worth asking about that changeup in the context of his current results.
Is it the change that changed how we feel about Mike Minor?
In an effort to publish some of the essential bullpen news and notes over the weekend, there’s a good chance you’ll see me or one of my esteemed colleagues here on Saturday mornings going forward.
Here’s a few items that stuck out to me during Friday’s games:
–Rafael Soriano notched his 29th save of the season last evening, but it didn’t come easy. Soriano allowed an earned run on three hits before sealing the 5-4 victory for the Nationals over the Bucs. Both Rafael Soriano & Tyler Clippard have appeared in three consecutive days. Therefore, Drew Storen could make for a decent streaming closer option today.
Read the rest of this entry »
As my first RotoGraphs post, I dwelled way too long on this title: Coresistency Dickerson? Too corny. Corey Dickersplits? Too dirty. In any case, you can see from any of these titles where I’m going.
As the season winds down, I’m in trade mode, and I keep finding myself in trade discussions with Corey Dickerson owners. I am a win-now type of guy and therefore am all-in on trading prospects for sure-things when it comes to dynasty/keeper leagues. Dickerson was in an interesting boat for me: Do I buy? In the one league I have him, do I sell? While I would love to see him in front of or behind Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki and Nolan Arenado on a more consistent basis (he’s full-time now, but the trio is rarely healthy), his Splits Page has me convinced.
Usually I stroll down the splits page and get excited by some segments and turned off by others, but I was satisfied throughout…
I began the year at RotoGraphs by producing a semi-regularly-updated Top 25 prospects list. For the second half of the year and into the offseason, I’ll be rotating expanded Top 10, 12 or 15 lists (on a far more regular basis) by position: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF/RF, CF, RHSP (tier 1), RHSP (tier 2), LHSP. Whether you play traditional formats of fantasy baseball or dynasty/keeper styles (or you’re just a prospect nut like me), you’ll surely find these lists indispensable. You can read the Impact Prospect Catchers, the Impact Prospect First Basemen, the Impact Prospect Second Basemen and the Impact Prospect Third Basemen. Read the rest of this entry »
