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Dear Mr. Tracy,

Thank you for taking time out of your day to read my pathetic ramblings on baseball. I don’t usually do this sort of thing, so pardon me if it is lacking a certain “je ne sais quoi.”

While I’m sure the Rockies’ upper management is a fan of yours, fans love you dearly for 2009’s run, and your players respect you, I have a lot of problems with the way you ran your team during the 2010 season. Let me list a couple of them for you:

1. Miguel Olivo and the Catcher position
I mean, hey, no one can blame you for playing Olivo during his super hot first half, or sending Iannetta down to get him regular playing time, but it never should have gotten that far to begin with.

First, I’m sure you hate strikeouts. Did you know that Miguel struck out more often than Chris did? Yeah, it sort of surprised me, too. Did you know that Chris also walked more and is a better power hitter? Because I sure did. And yeah, Olivo probably did a better job of handling your pitching staff, but can that really make up for his offensive short comings? Come on Jimmy (can I call you Jimmy? I’m going to call you Jimmy), I think you know better.

2. Eric Young, Jr.
EY Jr. is one fast dude, isn’t he? I’m not going to sit here and list off various metrics for you Jimmy, I’m just going to try to plant an idea in your brain: Think how scary a lineup that included EY, Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler would be! Opposing catchers wouldn’t be able to do a darn thing against your barrage of “the quickness.”

In Conclusion
All of these problems are correctable, Jimmy T, so I’d really appreciate it if you’d take my suggestions under advisement and make the necessary changes to your approach next year. Rockies fans, and baseball fans everywhere, would love you for it.

Thanks a boatload,

Zach Sanders

Over the offseason, we’ll update the rankings with a slant on the best keepers. This means an obvious tick up for youth, and a tick down for veterans, but it also been stability and consistency will be slightly more valued. One strong season doesn’t make you a top-flight keeper in other words. Here were the second base keeper rankings, and now here are the shortstops:

The Top Targets
Hanley Ramirez, Florida (27 yrs old, .300 BA, 21 HR, 92 R, 76 RBI, 32 SB, .373 wOBA)
Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (26 yrs old, .315 BA, 27 HR, 89 R, 95 RBI, 11 SB, .408 wOBA)

In terms of multi-category goodness at the position, these are the guys. Tulo’s stolen base success percentage probably means that he won’t steal double-digit bases too often going forward, but a healthy year has him hitting different benchmarks (30 HR, 100 RBI) that would make him an elite option anyway. After three straight seasons with an ISO over .200, the bet here is that Hanley’s power returns next year. Unfortunately, his fielding is sub-par and could still mean an eventual move off of the position, but that’s no reason to trade the star at what should be a low point in his value.

Still Strong And (Mostly) Young:
Jose Reyes, New York NL (27 yrs old, .282 BA, 11 HR, 83 R, 54 RBI, 30 SB, .329 wOBA)
Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (32 yrs old, .243 BA, 8 HR, 48 R, 41 RBI, 17 SB, .317 wOBA)
Starlin Castro, Chicago (21 yrs old, .300 BA, 3 HR, 53 R, 41 RBI, 10 SB, .325 wOBA)
Elvis Andrus, Texas (22 yrs old, .265 BA, 0 HR, 88 R, 35 RBI, 32 SB, .298 wOBA)

This might be slightly controversial. Jose Reyes is often thought of as an elite shortstop, but even though he’s still a solid keeper, his last season highlighted too many of his flaws to put him in the top tier. His old problems garnering walks returned (5.1% BB%), and with so much of his value tied up in stolen bases, a low total in that category, or another injury to his hamstrings, and he’s pretty much a liability. Selling now would be selling low, but a nice half-season might be all you need to move him along. Ditto Rollins, actually, who is no longer a spring chicken and has flaws of his own (declining speed and injury concerns). Andrus has flaws, but he’s still young enough that there’s hope that he ups the average a bit and fills out for some (still probably marginal) power. In real life, Castro is the better hitter than Andrus, but he’s also more likely to move off the position eventually, and he probably won’t rack up ‘counting stats’ on the same level of Andrus’ stolen bases. In roto leagues, though, Castro’s all-around excellence is preferable.

Veterans That Are Still Useful In Deeper Keeper Leagues
Derek Jeter, New York AL (36 yrs old, .270 BA, 10 HR, 111 R, 67 RBI, 18 SB, .320 wOBA)
Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (29 yrs old, .282 BA, 18 HR, 83 R, 70 RBI, 13 SB, .322 wOBA)
Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (33 yrs old, .300 BA, 8 HR, 66 R, 43 RBI, 22 SB, .366 wOBA)

In terms of present value, most of these guys outrank Andrus, most likely. But they’re all older than you might think, and none is currently so amazing that they need to be kept over the Ranger shortstop. Maybe Jeter has another good year left in him, maybe Furcal can stay healthy for a year. Maybe Ramirez has another good power year before his poor efficiency on the basepaths (64.5% success) costs him his stolen bases. But each of these possibilities is much less likely than improvement from the 22-year-old Andrus. Admittedly, it’s a fault line, and some may come down on the other side, but the long-term view, valid in more established keeper leagues, says Andrus and Castro are in a different tier.

Will They Get Better?
Stephen Drew, Arizona (28 yrs old, .278 BA, 15 HR, 83 R, 61 RBI, 10 SB, .354 wOBA)
Ian Desmond, Washington (25 yrs old, .269 BA, 10 HR, 59 R, 65 RBI, 17 SB, .308 wOBA)
Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (25 yrs old, .276, 3 HR, 39 R, 29 RB, 6 SB, .301 wOBA)
Cliff Pennington, Oakland (26 yrs old, .250 BA, 6 HR, 64 R, 46 RBI, 29 SB, .315 wOBA)
Alcides Escobar, Milwaukee (24 yrs old, .235 BA, 4 HR, 57 R, 41 RBI, 10 SB, .270 wOBA)

Each of these shortstops probably deserves a more in-depth look over the offseason, but suffice it to say that they’ve each shown glimpses of possible mixed-league value while also displaying real flaws that make them deep-league dynasty league keepers if anything. Drew and Desmond are borderline keepers if your league keeps enough players, but we now have 2700+ plate appearances for Drew and 2010 was his best year, so we probably know who he is – and Desmond’s line last year was way too similar to his minor league line (mediocre as it was) to hope for much more either. Desmond is also a poor defender, which may factor in sooner or later. These are all flawed players – but they are young for the most part.

These rankings could function as end-of-year rankings, but with a twist. Young players on the way up get a bonus, especially since many keeper leagues allow you to keep young players as long as you like without penalty. Older, more filler players don’t get listed because you can find them next year in the late rounds of your re-stocking draft anyway. These rankings are also for regular 5×5 roto, despite the fact that we’ve got wOBAs listed. It’s just an extra piece of information, right? The age listed is their age going into the 2011 season.

The Top Targets:
Robinson Cano, New York AL (28 yrs old, .326 BA, 29 HR, 103 R, 109 RBI, 3 SB, .389 wOBA)
Chase Utley, Philadelphia (32 yrs old, .275 BA, 16 HR, 75 R, 65 RBI, 13 SB, .373 wOBA)
Dustin Pedroia, Boston (27 yrs old, .288 BA, 12 HR, 53 R, 41 RBI, 9 SB, .377 wOBA)
Ian Kinsler, Texas (28 yrs old, .286 BA, 9 HR, 73 R, 45 RBI, 15 SB, .357 wOBA)

This feels right as the first group, but where does Utley belong? He’s the oldest of the crew, and loves getting hit by pitches. He averaged 25 per year from 2007-2009 (18 last year), and each of those is akin to a round of Russian Roulette these days. Then again, he’s hurt his hip and his thumb on the base paths, so maybe each of those stolen bases is really the cause for worry. In any case, the two guys behind him prove that it doesn’t take being old to have injury problems, so we’ll go with the upside here. Do you want to penalize Kinsler for being injury-prone? He’s averaged 124 games per season in his career, so we’ll put him last, but he’s also averaged 18 home runs and 21 home runs per season even in those few games, so we’ll keep him here.

Strong Secondary Options
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (29 yrs old, .275 BA, 18 HR, 100 R, 59 RBI, 16 SB, .332 wOBA)
Dan Uggla, Florida (31 yrs old, .287 BA, 33 HR, 100 R, 105 RBI, 4 SB, .381 wOBA)
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (28 yrs old, .269 BA, 29 HR, 112 R, 83 RBI, 11 SB, .368 wOBA)
Kelly Johnson, Arizona (29 yrs old, .284 BA, 26 HR, 93 R, 71 RBI, 13 SB, .377 wOBA)
Martin Prado, Atlanta (27 yrs old, .307 BA, 15 HR, 100 R, 66 RBI, 5 SB, .352 wOBA)

Phillips and Uggla feel like old men, but they aren’t that old yet. Uggla shouldn’t see the same batting average, and Phillips’ ISO has been dropping for four years – so some sort of decline is in order, just not a precipitous one, hopefully. Weeks is risky because of the injuries, of course, and Johnson slugs so much better in Arizona that there’s some risk there too. Prado doesn’t seem as risky, but also doesn’t have the same upside in counting stats. It’s a good strong group though, and there’s little shame keeping these guys in mixed leagues where you keep more than five keepers.

Riskier But Young-ish, Best as Deep Dynasty League Options
Neil Walker, Pittsburgh (25 yrs old, .296 BA, 12 HR, 57 R, 66 RBI, 2 SB, .351 wOBA)
Aaron Hill, Toronto (29 yrs old, .205 BA, 26 HR, 70 R, 68 RBI, 2 SB, .291 wOBA)
Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (29 yrs old, .238 BA, 10 HR, 77 R, 75 RBI, 24 SB, .323 wOBA)

Now we’re in a group that shouldn’t really be kept unless you are in a deeper league or a near-dynasty situation. None of the first two guys is really well-balanced – but that also means deeper league owners could use them to plug certain holes. They’re all solid keepers for teams that need a little power boost and can afford some batting average risk. Edit: Zobrist was a cut and paste I forgot to paste back in because I wasn’t sure where to put him. I think his 2009 still provides enough upside to consider him here, but if the power doesn’t return, he doesn’t seem to have elite speed, and he could really belong in the bottom group.

Veterans Better Drafted Late For Bounceback Than Kept
Brian Roberts, Baltimore (33 yrs old, 4 HR, 28 R, 15 RBI, 12 SB, .340 wOBA)
Chone Figgins, Seattle (33 yrs old, 1 HR, 62 R, 35 RBI, 42 SB, .302 wOBA)

I mean, you could keep these guys, but they’d be easy pickings at the draft next year as well. Both are young enough and have long enough track records that they could easily bounce back next year and provide good value on their return. And, on leagues that are deep enough or keep enough players, they could also work as final keepers. Second baseman that steal 30 bases don’t grow on trees. If you’re wondering why other veterans didn’t make this list, it’s because they don’t have the same upside. I mean, yes, Mike Aviles had a great end to the season, but he’s 30, doesn’t have much power, and only about average speed. Not to mention the team has a younger option at the position that was hurt while Aviles went off.

Only Worth Keeping in the Deepest of Leagues Because They are Younger and Could Get Better, Maybe
Gordon Beckham, Chicago AL (24 years old, .252 BA, 9 HR, 58 R, 49 RBI, 4 SB, .305 wOBA)
Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (27 yrs old, .279 BA, 10 HR, 67 R, 75 RBI, 14 SB, .317 wOBA)
Danny Espinosa, Washington (23 yrs old, .214 BA, 6 HR, 16 R, 15 RBI, 0 SB, .301 wOBA)
Eric Young, Jr., Colorado (25 yrs old, .244 BA, 0 HR, 26 R, 8 RBI, 17 SB, .281 wOBA)
Sean Rodriguez, Tampa Bay (25 yrs old, .251 BA, 9 HR, 53 R, 40 RBI, 13 SB, .316 wOBA)

This is the bargain bin. Beckham almost made it north with Zobrist, but what he’s shown was not as impressive as the season Zobrist showed, so we’re not sure what upside we’re really chasing. Kendrick probably won’t get much better, but if the team gets better around him and he has some BABIP luck, he could be a younger, slightly more powerful version of Placido Polanco, right? Though Espinosa came up and hit some home runs right away, his power in the minor leagues wasn’t more middling than impressive (.185 ISO), and it’s a little bit more about speed (25 SBs, 69% success rate) with him. He’s a decent sleeper for next year even with the slight batting average risk (25.7% strikeout rate). Eric the younger? Well, he’s got blazing speed and could be a deep league boon if he wins the job next year – the risk is obvious though.

During the Keeper Conundrum series, I got some nice suggestions in the comments. Today through Wednesday, I’ll be looking into the better suggestions I received.

Chris Iannetta
I was going to include Iannetta in my original catcher’s article, but I have no idea what is going on in Colorado, so I can’t comment much on his situation. My projection will assume he’s the everyday catcher, so I’ll let you worry about his PT.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.380, 22 HR
Verdict: Keep. If you have him for a dollar or two, he’s worth having around.

Mitch Moreland
Moreland has flashed power at a couple of minor league levels, and did very well during his limited stint in the bigs. Moreland’s biggest problem was his strikeout rate, and I expect that to dip a couple of percent next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.370, 25 HR
Verdict: Keep. He’s going to be really cheap next year, and probably even 2012.

Neil Walker
Walker has been a nice surprise for the Pirates, as the former disappointment has given them reason for hope. He continued to show that he can hit for a little power, and a .340 BABIP helped to fuel a high batting average. He’s not a good defender, but the Pirates are going to keep the switch-hitter in the lineup every day.
Crude 2011 Projection: .285/.335, 15 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Keep. He’ll be starting in standard leagues next year, and he shouldn’t have cost you more than a Buc or two (see what I did there?).

Pablo Sandoval
Sandoval’s decline was mostly BABIP related, as the rest of his numbers stayed fairly consistent. However, his power production took a big hit, dropping back down to the level I expected in 2009. He’s very young, but he needs to do some serious work this offseason, and I’m willing to bet the Giants will be pushing him hard to improve his physical condition.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 17 HR
Verdict: Cut. He’s a good candidate to pick back up in drafts at a lower cost, but not worth keeping.

Michael Young
Call him what you will, but don’t you dare call him inconsistent. Despite his age, Young was able to produce at a decently high level. He hit you more than twenty dingers, and kept his batting average at a helpful level. He’s wasn’t great in OBP or OPS leagues, but that’s another story for another day.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.335, 19 HR
Verdict: Cut. Let someone else pay for a player on the decline.

Thanks for all the suggestions this week, and check back tomorrow for part two of your requests.

Here are 10 fantasy hitters who really helped their teams in the month of September/October, without any position factor considered. Hitters 4-9 could probably be arranged in any order you like, although the top three hitters seem set.

10. Victor Martinez .330-7-25-17-0

These are great numbers for anyone and they are spectacular for a catcher. Martinez is a free agent following this season and it will be interesting to see how many years a club feels comfortable giving him. Fantasy-wise, he is likely to move up from last year’s 48 ADP on ESPN.

9. Jayson Werth .300-9-22-23-4

A free agent at the end of the year, Werth did everything in his power to become one of the top players available on the open market. The Phillies have top prospect Domonic Brown ready to step in for Werth but it will be strange to see him on another team next Spring.

8. Andrew McCutchen .324-4-16-22-5

Coming into the 2010 season, many fantasy players wondered if McCutchen could be a consistent HR threat. While he will never be confused as a bopper, he seems very capable of putting up a 20-HR, 40-SB season in 2011.

7. Chase Utley .306-5-24-21-7

After suffering a torn ligament in his thumb that required surgery, Utley came back quicker than many people expected. He missed just six weeks of action and after a couple of weeks to play himself back in shape, Utley responded with production that fantasy leaguers have come to expect. Now the question remains if he is still a first-round pick or if age and injury concerns drop him lower.

6. Carl Crawford .360-4-19-16-6

Another free agent, Crawford did everything fantasy owners hoped he would do and finished the year as one of the Top 10 fantasy hitters, again. The big question for fantasy players is if Crawford moves to a new team, will he get more SB chances? With an 82 percent success ratio last season, owners would love to see him get even more opportunities than the 57 he had in 2010.

5. Mike Aviles .333-6-14-20-7

In the final month of the season, Aviles hit 6 of his 8 HR and had 7 of his 14 SB for the season. After going undrafted in many 12-team mixed leagues this year, Aviles undoubtedly will be a hot target for fantasy league players in 2011.

4. Drew Stubbs .316-7-18-19-6

With the Reds making the playoffs, Stubbs will be introduced to the wider baseball audience for the first time. Fantasy league players are already aware of the just-turned 26-year-old, who saved his best for the final month of the season.

3. Shin-Soo Choo .340-7-27-19-7

How’s this for consistency – last year Choo had a .300-20-86-87-21 line and this year it was .300-22-90-81-22 line. The only problem with Choo is that he has a two-year obligation to the South Korea military hanging over his head. Choo will be representing his country in the upcoming Asian games and if South Korea wins the Gold Medal, he will likely have the requirement waved. But what if they don’t finish first and Choo goes through with his duty? Is there any chance he could return to be an MLB-quality hitter after sitting out two of his late-prime years?

2. Carlos Gonzalez .378-5-26-24-6

Without a doubt, Gonzalez is this year’s fantasy MVP. He had a preseason ADP of 131.1 according to ESPN but finished as the top-rated player in fantasy, with a $43 12-team mixed value, according to Last Player Picked. Gonzalez had a terrific final month of the year, but it wasn’t quite good enough to be the best.

1. Troy Tulowitzki .303-15-40-30-2

In the last three years, Tulowitzki has played 101, 151 and 122 games. No fantasy player questions his talent, but how soon are you ready to pull the trigger on a player who has missed roughly 1/3 of the season in two of the past three years? And should we be even a tiny bit worried about the new chain of command in regards to the baseballs at Coors Field? Tulowitzki had a 1.034 OPS at home this year and an .863 mark at home.

Honorable Mention – Albert Pujols, Mike Stanton, Corey Hart, Alex Rodriguez, Matt Holliday and Mark Ellis

Angry because the Mariners decided not to pitch Felix on Sunday? Here’s a few guys that could help ease the pain…

Tim Stauffer | SP | Padres | 11% owned

Once upon a time Stauffer was the fourth overall pick in the draft, but injuries have delayed his big league breakout until this season, at age-28. He slid into the rotation earlier this month after working in long relief all season, and he’s given the Padres more than they could have asked for. Stauffer has posted a 2.25 ERA (~2.90 FIP) in five starts, holding the opposition to one run or less four times. He’s got one start left, this Saturday against the Giants and Barry Zito with San Diego’s season possibly on the line.

Paul Maholm | SP | Pirates | 17%

Maholm usually isn’t a guy fantasy owners rush out to acquire given his low strikeout, high contact, few wins resume, but if you’re stuck in the finals and need a spot start this weekend, he’s about as good a bet as you’ll find on the waiver wire. He’s allowed just eight earned runs (13 total) with 20 strikeouts and six walks in his last four starts (24.1 IP), and this weekend he meets up with the Hanley Ramirez-less Marlins in Miami. Perhaps it’s a strong finish, perhaps is just a four start fluke, but if you’re desperate and need help, at least go for the hot hand.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

We got word the other day that Scot Shields is likely to retire after the season, which shouldn’t be a shock due to his poor performance this year. Shields has an ERA of 5.28 this year, and his FIP is even higher. It’s not a good way for the 34-year old to wind down his career, but this isn’t how we should be remembering him.

How many of you considered Scot Shields to be a dominant fantasy player during his peak? Don’t be shy, raise your hands. I’m not going to lie, I’m sitting here at my desk waiving my hand in the air (like I just don’t care!).

Shields was a player who had one skill that no one else seemed to be able to master: holds. That’s right, Shields was able to lock down the holds category for your squad, something that no one else was doing on a consistent basis (as I will show later). But not only did he give you a bucket of holds, he was a dominant reliever who would rack up other numbers for your team.

Some of us fantasy “gurus” preach the value of setup men, even in leagues where holds don’t count. You’ve heard it before, but setup men with high strikeout rates are extremely valuable because they will help your ERA and WHIP, and give you the occasional save. Shields was the epitome of this strategy, because he would pitch in 60+ games every year, and could really rack up the K’s.

But, back to that holds thing. Holds is a very volatile category, because players who rack up a lot of holds can often times move into the closer’s role shortly thereafter. Not many players have the ability to stay atop the leaderboards for so long while the rest of the leaders change, but that was Shields. From 2005-2008, Shields was the only player to have at least 30 holds in multiple seasons, let alone do it every year. I’d be willing to guarantee that he’s the only player doing that in any category.

Remember Shields as the dominant player that he once was, not the laughing stock he is today.