Archive for Trades

While it’s not yet official, a trade sending 1B Casey Kotchman to the Mariners for utility man Bill Hall is expected to be announced soon. All of the details aren’t in: Boston could also receive a prospect and some cash in the transaction. For now, let’s focus on how the deal impacts Kotchman for the 2010 season.

Twenty-seven in February, Kotchman has devolved from a prized talent in the Angels’ farm system to a singles-hitter at a position where power rules the day.

The 13th overall pick in the 2001 draft displayed exceptional strike zone control in the minors, walking in 10.7 percent of his plate appearances and whiffing just 9.1 percent while posting a .324/.406/.492 triple-slash.

Kotchman’s power potential was subject to much debate, however. Baseball America was hopeful: in its 2005 Prospect Handbook, BA predicted that the lefty batter with a silky-smooth swing would “hit at least 20-25 homers annually once he learn[ed] to lift the ball.” That pop didn’t manifest in the minors, though, with Kotchman’s season-best HR total topping out at ten and his career ISO on the farm standing at .168.

After cups of coffee with the Angels in 2004 and 2005 (a combined 91 wRC+ in 271 PA), Kotchman missed nearly the entire 2006 season while batting mononucleosis. He finally got a shot at everyday playing time in 2007, and the results were fairly promising. In 508 PA, Kotchman compiled a 121 wRC+. He controlled the zone (10.7 BB%, 9.7 K%), while actually flashing some extra-base thump as well, with a .172 ISO.

Since then, Casey has been far from mighty at the bat:

In 2008, Kotchman was mid-season trade bait used to acquire Mark Teixeira from Atlanta. Between the Angels and the Braves, Kotchman hit a mundane .272/.328/.410 in 573 PA. His wRC+ dipped to 96. Kotchman’s walk rate fell to 6.4 percent, as his percentage of pitches seen within the strike zone spiked from 36.2% in 2007 to 48.8% in 2008 (the MLB average has ranged from 49-52% over the past few seasons).

Last offseason, we noted Kotchman’s disturbing propensity to chop the ball into the infield dirt. His near-53 percent groundball rate was commensurate with some of the speedier players in the game. As a plodding first baseman, Kotchman stuck out like a sore thumb.

Unfortunately, Kotchman continued to put the ball on the ground a ton in 2009. His 51.4 ground ball rate was highest among first basemen with 350+PA. As a guy on the low end of the defensive spectrum with a career 2.7 Speed Score, Kotchman isn’t doing much with those grounders. His batting average on grounders was .185 in 2009, and his career average is .188. For reference, the A.L. average last season was .240.

Traded again mid-season in 2009 (this time to Boston for Adam LaRoche), Kotchman batted just .268/.339/.382 with a 92 wRC+ in 431 PA. His walk rate did bounce back to 10.4 percent, but his ISO declined from 2008’s already mild .137 to .114. Overall, MLB first basemen hit .277/.362/.483 in 2009, with a .206 ISO.

Kotchman just doesn’t pull the ball with any authority. Courtesy of Baseball-Reference, here are Kotchman’s spray charts over the past three seasons. Focus on that last number, sOPS+. It compares a batter’s performance to that of the league average in a given split. 100 is average, above 100 is above average and below 100 is below-average.

Over the past three seasons, the average AL lefty batter has pulled the ball about 26 percent of the time, slugging .756 on pulled balls. Kotchman has pulled the ball about 31 percent of the time. But his slugging percentage is just .603. As this spray chart from Trip Somers’ site shows, nothin’ much happens when Casey pulls the ball:

Moving to Seattle won’t do Kotchman’s bat any favors. While Safeco isn’t total death to lefties like it is to righty batters, it still punishes southpaw hitters. Per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Safeco has depressed lefty home runs by five percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009.

Kotchman brings some value to the table with his glove (career +4.4 UZR/150), but it’s hard to recommend him in fantasy leagues. Maybe he’ll finally start to pull the ball with some force and make good on those scouting prognostications. But there just isn’t much evidence to suggest that’s going to be the case. CHONE projects a .274/.339/.405 line next season. You can do better than that at first base.

The Yankees have reacquired starting pitcher Javier Vazquez from the Atlanta Braves, bringing back the starter who last pitched for New York in 2004.

Most pitchers moving from the NL to the AL are mysteries and hard to predict, but we do have four years of pitching in the AL to examine. Aside from pitching for the Yanks in 2004, Javy pitched for the White Sox from 2006-2008.

2004: 14-10, 4.91 ERA, 6.82 K/9, 2.50 K/BB, .284 BABIP, 4.78 FIP, 4.44 xFIP
2006: 11-12, 4.84 ERA, 8.17 K/9, 3.29 K/BB, .321 BABIP, 3.86 FIP, 4.05 xFIP
2007: 15-08, 3.74 ERA, 8.85 K/9, 4.26 K/BB, .297 BABIP, 3.80 FIP, 3.72 xFIP
2008: 12-16, 4.67 ERA, 8.64 K/9, 3.28 K/BB, .328 BABIP, 3.74 FIP, 3.85 xFIP

Yankee fans will remember Vazquez’s down year with the Yankees when he first came into the American League, but he did pitch very well for the White Sox for three seasons. His FIP and his ERA have never quite agreed with each other, with all signs pointing to Javy being a better pitcher than what we saw in the AL during ’06-’08. Some fans will be going off his Yankee numbers instead of his overall AL numbers, and don’t let it be you. That year in New York was blip in the radar of Vazquez’s overall success.

Javy isn’t a ground ball specialist, but a career GB% near 40% is not the worst thing in the world for a strikeout pitcher. But, playing in New Yankee Stadium changes things. He will have to make sure to keep the ball down more if he doesn’t want balls flying out of the yard.

The defense behind Vazquez is solid, so that shouldn’t be a worry for fantasy owners. His outfield defense will be good enough to chase down the flies that stay in the yard, so put this issue completely out of mind.

It’s hard to advocate drafting a #3 starter as high as Vazquez will be going in drafts, but this is a unique situation. Vazquez’s strikeouts will drop down a touch in 2010, but 17 wins, 200 K’s, and a 3.50 ERA are all reasonable to expect next season.

Lost in the awesomeness of the Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee blockbuster, the Dodgers have traded outfielder Juan Pierre to the Chicago White Sox for minor leaguers Jon Link and John Ely. The White Sox have been looking for a leadoff hitter for what seems like an eternity, so this trade must have gotten the White Sox brass all kinds of excited.

Pierre has been stuck behind Manny Ramirez in Los Angeles for the past year and a half, but managed to find plenty of playing time in 2009 when Manny was suspended for trying to get pregnant. When Pierre started games last year, he hit .304/.355/.386 with 28 steals and 43 runs scored in 350 plate appearances. Overall last year, Pierre hit .308/.365/.392 in 425 plate appearances, striking out only 27 times.

Pierre had an outstanding month of May, hitting .369/.435/.505 with 9 steals. Somehow, he managed to drive in 18 runs for the Dodgers, a number he could not match in all the other months combined. His numbers dropped off in June, when he hit .264/.319/.309, but he did accumulate 11 steals during the month.

Since coming into the majors in 2000, Pierre has been one of fantasy baseball’s premier base stealers. His lowest steal total in a season with 600+ plate appearances was 46, back in his first full year in 2001. Since then, he has stolen 55+ bases four times, coming in at over 60 twice.

Pierre sports an outstanding line drive clip, with a career rate of 22%. In his past two seasons with the Dodgers, this rate jumped up to 24%.

Now that he will be a full time player again in a decent White Sox lineup, Pierre’s value skyrockets. I’ve never been one to pay for his services, but if you are looking for steals he is once again “the man”. A .290 average with 45+ steals is completely reasonable to expect in 2010.

As a Chicago Cub, Jake Fox was a swing-from-the-heels slugger without a defensive home.

The 6-0, 210 pound Fox roamed around the diamond in the minors, logging time at catcher, first base, the outfield corners and third base.

But the Cubs are set at the infield corners with Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee. Alfonso Soriano, he of bum wheels and -0.7 WAR in 2009 (only five years and $90M left on that contract!), will patrol left field. Kosuke Fukudome could shift back to right field in 2010 if Chicago adds a center fielder. And, Fox hasn’t really been taken seriously as a backstop.

As such, a trade to the A.L. seemed likely. Yesterday, Fox was indeed shipped to the Junior Circuit. The Oakland A’s acquired the 27 year-old righty batter and IF Aaron Miles for RHPs Jeff Gray and Ronny Morla and OF Matt Spencer.

Fox famously went all Babe Ruth on the Pacific Coast League in 2009, blasting 17 HR and posting a .409/.495/.841 line in 194 PA. The University of Michigan product holds a career .293/.357/.528 triple-slash in the minors, with a .235 ISO. Fox has mostly hacked and asked questions later, walking in 6.9% of his plate appearances.

With the Cubs in desperate need of some offensive thump, Fox logged 241 PA in the big leagues while shuffling between third base, the outfield corners, and first base (he logged a few innings at catcher, too). He compiled a .259/.311/.468 line, popping 11 homers with a .208 ISO.

Fox remained ultra-aggressive, chasing 37.7% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). He also took a cut at 77.8% of in-zone offerings, compared to the 66% major league average. His 56.7% swing rate ranked in the top 10 in the majors among batters with 240+ PA. Fox walked in just 6.1% of his PA.

It’s not a good idea to put too much stock in less than half a season’s worth of pitch data, but Fox was greeted with plenty of off-speed stuff in 2009. Big league pitchers tossed him a fastball just 44.5% of the time, the lowest percentage among hitters with 240+ PA. Chicago’s 3rd round pick in the ’03 draft hammered heaters (+0.51 runs/100), while posting negative run values vs. curves, sliders and changeups.

Now in Oakland, Fox could figure into the competition for AB’s at DH and third base. Jack Cust, coming off of a .342 wOBA season, is a possible trade/non-tender candidate. Fox’s qualifications at third are suspect. But with Eric Chavez and Dallas McPherson his primary competition (assuming Brett Wallace opens the year in the minors), Fox could hold an advantage by simply being ambulatory.

For 2010, Bill James projects a whopping .284/.339/.546 line for Fox in limited playing time. That strikes me as wildly optimistic. CHONE’s forecast appears much more reasonable, with a projected .257/.316/.452 performance. Fox’s power and newfound opportunity in Oakland make him a more appealing fantasy target. Just don’t get too giddy over a couple dominant months in the cornfields of Iowa.