If you took a quick look at the MLB leaderboard for hard-hit rate in 2017, you would probably surmise that Nick Castellanos actually did break out, as opposed to what the headline of this post may indicate. Castellanos hit the ball hard more frequently than all but six players this season, as you can see below. The ranking by each player indicates his end-of-season rank in standard 5×5 leagues:

• J.D. Martinez – 15th – 49.2%
• Joey Gallo – 99th – 46.4%
• Aaron Judge – 5th – 45.3%
• Miguel Sano – 102nd – 45.2%
• Paul Goldschmidt – 4th – 44.4%
• Corey Seager – 66th – 44.1%
• Nick Castellanos – 65th – 43.6%

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There isn’t a whole lot of figuring things out when it comes to Joey Gallo. We know what he is, and we know what he isn’t. Coming in at 6’5″ and 235, he’s a behemoth of a man with a “dingers first and questions later” skill set, in the simplest sense. He’s shown surprising versatility, even if he doesn’t play any defensive position remarkably well (or even really competently). But just because we were all relatively aware of what Joey Gallo figured to become at the Major League level doesn’t make what he’s done this year any less astounding.

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It’s an interesting thing to think about that as far as MVP candidates go, Kris Bryant has managed, in the span of a year, to go from the choice for National League MVP to not even in the conversation. What’s even stranger about such a situation is that it’s not like Bryant has fallen off dramatically from a sophomore campaign that featured a WAR over 8. In addition to the early inconsistencies that his team experienced, some of the changes in his game might be leading to him being somewhat of an overlooked quantity at this point, even with the Cubs serving as one of the best teams in baseball since the All-Star break.

Despite his virtual exclusion from any sort of Most Valuable Player discussion, Bryant has actually managed to improve in a number of ways. Sure, there are a couple of aspects in which he’s taken a modest step back, but overall, we’re still talking about a player that ranks at or near the top of the third base category in a number of ways on the offensive side of things. In fact, as far as his Off rating alone is concerned, Bryant ranks at the top of the 26 qualifying players at the hot corner, with his park-adjusted offense coming in at a 142 mark that trails only Justin Turner. Turner is also the only player that bests Bryant in reaching base overall, as Bryant has posted a .402 mark to date that has been the result of some adjustments he made over the course of last year’s offseason.

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Life with the Cincinnati Reds isn’t always the easiest when you’re a standout player. Just ask Joey Votto, a player who doesn’t get anywhere near the credit he deserves for being perhaps the largest on-base threat over the last five or so years. Eugenio Suarez falls into a similar category as far as the element of neglect is concerned. Not only has his August been better than any other individual at the hot corner, but he’s spinning those numbers into another extremely effective campaign as a followup to what was already a career year in 2016.

The last 30 days have been particularly remarkable for Suarez. He leads the position in WAR over that time, but is also leading (or ranking near the top of the pack) in several other essential offensive categories. He’s third in batting average (.349) and reaching base at a .491 clip that’s easily the best among the 28 qualifying players over that span. He’s reaching base in almost half of his 110 plate appearances thus far in the past month. As such, there are some pretty interesting developments that have taken place that lend themselves to the current intrigue surrounding Suarez.

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How long did you think you were going to get away with this column not being devoted to Jake Lamb in a given week? Regardless, as I listened to the hyperbolic Arizona sports radio throughout this week, Lamb represented a focal point. With the Diamondbacks hitting the strugglebus since just before the second half of the season began, Lamb was a target for the talking heads, despite this particular instance of discussion taking place a day after he went 3-for-4 against the Chicago Cubs.

With that in mind, it’s probably important to note that there is nothing wrong with Jake Lamb. At least not now.

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With the Oakland Athletics deciding to dispatch of seemingly any and all of their near bottom-of-the-barrel veterans, that has made way for some intriguing young talent to grace the tattered remains of the Oakland–Alameda County Coliseum. The trade of Trevor Plouffe, and subsequent realization of Ryon Healy’s relative uselessness on defense, has opened up the door for Matt Chapman, who could potentially serve as an impact piece for Oakland to also trade farther on down the line. For now, though, his ability to make an impact at the plate is starting to make him a relatively intriguing commodity in the home stretch, even if his numbers don’t necessarily indicate it.

In fact, Chapman’s numbers through almost 140 plate appearances are relatively paltry in general. His slash features a .223 average, while he’s reaching base at a clip of just .304. Not working in his favor are a BABIP of just .267 and a strikeout rate up near 30%. However, his OPS (.800) and ISO (.273) indicate that his bat has been a bit more impactful than some of the other figures would tend to indicate.

Actually, in the most general sense possible, hits of the extra base variety have sort of become Chapman’s specialty throughout his brief time at the Major League level, far more than any other hit type that finds its way onto the stat sheet.

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In the midst of the wild success that the Houston Astros have experienced this season, the success of Alex Bregman has sort of fallen by the wayside. The bulk of that lack of attention is probably due to the slow start that he experienced to kick off the 2017 campaign, followed by an extremely lackluster month of June. But as the month of July nears its end, Bregman has experienced a rise in productivity and has emerged as an essential contributor as the likely favorites for the American League pennant.

Bregman’s overall numbers on the season aren’t exactly among the league’s elite third sackers. He ranks 17th out of 25 qualifying players at the position in WAR (1.5) and 13th among the same group in Off rating (5.1). But it’s certainly hard to frown on an output that features an on-base percentage of .350, a walk rate over 10%, and a wRC+ that paints him as a relatively well-above average offensive performer, with a 115 mark.

At the same time, while his numbers wouldn’t be deemed poor in really any regard, there isn’t a whole of of spectacular to go around in his overall production for the year. His slash features that .350 OBP, as well as a .267 batting average and .795 OPS. His ISO for the year comes in at .178, about 35 points lower than he turned in across 217 plate appearances in 2016. In relation to the average, the luck hasn’t quite been there, with a BABIP of only .298 for the year, but the fact that Bregman has been overlooked has more to do with the fact that the third base position is absolutely loaded with elite talent more than any shortcomings of his own.

Despite being overshadowed, Bregman has spent the last month excelling almost more so than almost all of his counterparts at the position. With the calendar about set to close for July, Bregman has been on a hot streak that has really driven up production and has those overall statistics looking quite a bit more favorable than they would’ve been otherwise. This month was especially essential for him coming off of a month of June where he hit just .215 with a wRC+ of 93.

In rebounding from that brutal month, Bregman has spent the last month tearing the cover off the ball. His Off rating (6.8) trails only Anthony Rendon and Travis Shaw over the last 30 days. His .329 average and .420 OBP over that span both rank fifth among the 30 players that qualified during that time. He struck out at a rate of only 13.6%, 21st lowest, while ranking at the 12th highest rate, at 12.5%. He’s upped the ISO, at .237 over the 30-day period, while making hard contact 34.4% of the time, which has certainly aided him in posting a BABIP over .370.

Despite being in such dire need of a rebound after that month of June, a lot of what Bregman’s done this year has been right in line with what was expected from him. He’s making contact at a rate of 84.7%, while whiffing only 6.6% of the time. Those each fall right in line with his production from the last 30 days, as he posted a Contact% of 84.8% and a whiff rate of 6.1%. Those both represent vast improvements from his time in the big leagues last year, and are each far more indicative of the skill set that he possesses, as a guy with high contact ability and high upside in the power game. He’s maintained a quality approach, with a 43.4% swing rate and 3.76 pitches per plate appearances. That’s a lot to like, even if he hasn’t quite broken out at the level that was expected.

Any disappointment really stems from a lack of productivity in the power game. Not that Bregman was expected to be some big behemoth in that respect, but something more around or above the .200 mark in the ISO department was probably to be expected. Instead, that figure has been relatively limited. Perhaps his recent stretch of offensive success will lead to a rise in that regard.

Overall, it’s hard not to be excited about the recent turnaround that Alex Bregman has showcased. His quality approach and high contact ability have proven to pay off in the past month more than the others, and his cumulative numbers for the season are better for it. One hopes that his recent hamstring injury isn’t the type that lingers and affects production moving forward. But with that current skill set and still developing power, the last month has renewed excitement that might have waned early on in relation to Alex Bregma.

A quick comparison between the tailspin of the Baltimore Orioles and the stat sheet of Manny Machado would seem to indicate that the third baseman is heavily responsible for the woes of the O’s over these last few months. However, the story of Machado’s 2017 isnt necessarily one of immense struggles, as his numbers might indicate, but rather one that remains something of an enigma. Despite numbers that pale in comparison to what he’s posted in two consecutive seasons of 6+ WAR, Machado hasn’t been nearly as bad as those figures might indicate.

The following represents Machado’s production over the last three years, with 387 plate appearances to his credit thus far in 2017:

His park-adjusted offense alone seems to indicate that he’s been a touch below average compared to his big league counterparts. It’s his defense almost exclusively that has him in the top ten among third basemen in WAR, given that his Off rating is just 0.2 to this point in the season, which ranks 17th out of 24 qualifying players at the position. That isolated power figure also represents a relatively significant disappointment, with Machado coming off of a year in which his power potential finally manifested itself in something statistically significant.

Interestingly enough, though, there isn’t a whole lot that should indicate Machado is as bad as his production would indicate. Obviously an average where it is and an OBP barely lingering above .300 is not representative of a player that is very likely among the top three at the hot corner. With that in mind, it’s certainly worth pondering if Machado’s 2017 is one that warrants any type of concern or can largely be attribute to bad luck more than anything. Especially considering how similar his contact trends are to his strong showing in 2016:

Obviously there’s the slight dip in his contact rate, with his whiff rate also slightly rising from 10.0 to 10.9%, but there isn’t anything outlandish that should indicate why Machado has experienced such a significant decline in overall production from one season to the next. Except that BABIP. In fact, Machado’s .253 average on balls put in play is the 13th lowest among 168 qualifying position players in Major League Baseball. With his soft and hard contact rates each trending in the ideal direction, it’s extremely difficult to account for the cause of such a startling fall in the BABIP game.

One potential explanation of where that drop comes from is where Machado has been swinging within the zone. Even if his overall swing rates and whiff rates have remained relatively constant, he has demonstrated something of a penchant for swinging at pitches on the outer part of the strike zone, something that wasn’t quite as prevalent in 2016.

Here’s his heatmap from 2016:

…Up against that of his heatmap from those almost 400 plate appearances to this point in 2017, which demonstrate the trend previously discussed:

This is significant because Machado has put the ball on the ground far more this year than he did in 2016, with a 43.2 GB% against a 37.6 mark from last year. It likely cannot be attributed as entire source of his woes, but such a rise in groundballs, in conjunction with a pull percentage that is actually higher (44.0% 41.9%) likely serves as some foray into the woes that Machado has experienced, at least to an extent. Trying to swing at those outside pitches and maintaining such a high pull rate is likely leading to some semblance of rolling over, hence the increase in groundballs.

The good news is that there are two encouraging things related to Machado’s output. For one, if this is, in fact, the source of at least some of his statistical shortcomings this year, it would appear to be an easy fix. Approach and zone awareness are far less concerning than if Machado were experiencing some sort of mechanical flaw that developed over the offseason. So perhaps we see an adjustment from Machado moving forward to get that GB rate back down and get back to the linedrive ways that he demonstrated last year.

Additionally, Machado has been far better in the month of July than he had been in the previous months. After months in which he hit .224, .191, and .242, Machado is off to a .351 start in July, through 62 plate appearances in the month. He’s putting the ball on the ground just a touch less, at a rate of about 40%. Perhaps more importantly, though, his BABIP for the month is sitting at .378.

And that’s more reflective of the type of output we should expect from Manny Machado moving forward. While he’s never been an extremely high BABIP guy, he isn’t doing anything that should indicate his BABIP, or overall production, should be as low as it is. Things tend to even out over time, and assuming Machado continues to make the type of contact that he is and perhaps get the ball on a line with any more regularity, there doesn’t appear to be any reason to be legitimately concerned about Machado moving forward in 2017.

There aren’t many players who have had as interesting, or perhaps as volatile, a career arc as Mike Moustakas has. His last few seasons have featured him being demoted to the minor leagues, finally experiencing a breakout, tearing his ACL, and, most recently, the fact that he’s set to be featured in this year’s Home Run Derby. Having already set a new career high in home runs, and currently posting the highest isolated power of his career, it probably isn’t a surprise that we’ll see him participate in the event in Miami.

Even less surprising, though, may be the influx in power that we’ve seen from Moustakas. A player who gradually improved his ability to make contact, with rising Contact% figures that peaked across his 113 plate appearances in 2016, at 86.2, while also focusing more on taking the ball to the opposite field (30.8 Oppo% last year), resulted in him reestablishing value after it looked like he was a lost cause at the hot corner in Kansas City. This year, we’re continuing to see Mike Moustakas evolve, but in a completely different way.

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There are a number of factors that have contributed to the surprising success of the Milwaukee Brewers thus far in 2017, with many of them found on the offensive side of things. Of those elements that have been essential to their rise in the National League Central, Travis Shaw has been a consistent source of offense, as well as quietly representing one of the more impactful offseason acquisitions of this past winter. After a season in which Shaw experienced a major regression after a hot start with the Boston Red Sox, he’s flourishing in a full-time role in Milwaukee. Does that mean it’s finally time to trust Travis Shaw?

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