Power hitters playing in Texas are a fantasy player’s dream. Chris Davis certainly fits the bill.

Throughout his minor league career, all Davis has done is mash. Despite being young for his level at virtually every stop, Davis has a career minor league line of .302/.357/.595, with 75 homers in 275 games. Last year, Davis got the call to the big leagues and didn’t disappoint, hitting .285/.331/.549 with the Rangers, and smacking 17 homers in only 80 games.

Davis is a hulking slugger who swings quite hard, and, not surprisingly, strikes out a lot. However, Davis managed to keep his strikeouts to a reasonable level in the minors (again, despite being young for the league) without sacrificing power. Thus, he was able to hit over .300 in the minors.

While Davis may not ever hit .300 in the majors (at least not next year), don’t expect Davis to fall into the low batting average category occupied by the likes of Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard. Davis hit .285 as a 22-year-old in the majors, an impressive feat for any 22-year-old, but even more impressive for a guy who also slugged nearly .600! While he did strike out in 30% of his plate appearances, he also hit the ball extremely hard when he made contact, posting a line-drive percentage of 25.5%. Thus, his corresponding .353 BABIP – while certainly very high – is not out of line with expectations. This line-drive percentage is unlikely to remain quite so high, and his BABIP may fall somewhat, but it’s not unreasonable to expect Davis to maintain a rather high BABIP next year as well.

Furthermore, Davis’s power is completely legitimate, and very rare to find. His uppercut swing produces more fly balls than ground balls – an excellent sign for a power hitter – and it’s simply incredibly rare to find a young hitter with such a track record of power. Davis hit 20.5% of his fly balls for homers, and there’s no reason that this can’t continue next year, given his amazing raw power. Furthermore, Davis plays in one of the best home ballparks for power – especially left-handed power – in baseball, which should further increase his raw numbers.

Finally, it looks as if Davis will qualify at third base next season (as well as first base), thereby increasing his value even more. He’s surrounded by an excellent lineup, and should have plenty of players on base in front of him, leading to a lot of RBI.

Chris Davis is a perfect storm of exciting potential: he has a stellar track record, a ridiculous amount of power, an excellent lineup around him, and a home park perfectly suited for his abilities. It’s not unreasonable to expect that Davis could be a top-5 fantasy third baseman in 2009.

In 2008, Ian Stewart posted a .259/.349/.455 line with ten homers in 266 at bats. However, Stewart also struck out in 35% of his at bats. His .259 batting average was inflated by a .362 BABIP – yes, he hit line drives on 25% of his balls in play, suggesting that his BABIP was not abnormally high, but that line-drive percentage was well out of line with line-drive percentages that he had put up throughout his career, and there’s no reason to think that it (or the high BABIP) will continue next season. Thus, it would follow that Stewart’s batting average should fall.

But no so fast. Stewart struck out a LOT this year – in fact, only five players with at least 200 plate appearances struck out more often. However, Stewart’s plate discipline from this year, as well as his minor league track record, both suggest that he will not continue to strike out as often in the future.

In triple-A this year, Stewart struck out in 25.7% of his at bats. Last year in triple-A he struck out in 22.2% of his at bats. In fact, throughout his minor league career Stewart struck out in 23.6% of his at bats, despite being young for his level most of the time.

Of course, it’s more difficult to hit in the majors than in the minors. That being said, Stewart’s plate discipline numbers also suggest that his strikeout rate will come down in the future.

Stewart only swung at 28.5% of pitches out of the strike zone – right at major league average in 2008. Even more telling, however, is his contact percentage. Stewart made contact with 71.3% of the pitches he swung at – a low number, yes, but higher than other players with similar strikeout rates. For example, Mark Reynolds, Jack Cust, and Ryan Howard made contact with 62.3%, 65.1%, and 66.5% of the pitches they swung at, respectively.

Furthermore, Stewart is only 23 years old. Yes, he will probably strike out a lot in the future, but he is quite unlikely to strike out in 35% of his at bats, as he did this year. Therefore, even if his BABIP falls next year (which it probably will), his batting average may not fall if he indeed strikes out less often.

Stewart also hit a high proportion of fly balls this year, both in the majors and the minors. However, last year more than half of his balls in play were grounders. If Stewart can maintain his high amount of fly balls, Coors Field will allow him to hit a lot of homers. If he reverts to his groundballing ways, his power will suffer.

While Stewart is raw and rather risky, he has a lot of upside, especially given the fact that he plays for Colorado and will qualify at third base. If he can cut is strikeout rate, his batting average won’t fall too much even after his BABIP falls, and if Stewart can continue to hit lots of fly balls he could produce excellent power numbers.

Golden Spikes Award winner. Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year. The next George Brett? Without question, expectations are sky high for Royals third baseman Alex Gordon. Selected out of Nebraska with the 2nd overall selection in the 2005 amateur entry draft, Gordon had a brief but spectacular minor league career. He tamed the Texas League (AA) in 2006 while with Wichita:

2006 (AA): 486 AB, .325/.427/.588, 12.9BB%, 23.3K%, .263 ISO

As a 22 year-old, he made mince meat of the league while skipping A-Ball altogether. Gordon displayed plenty of pop and a promising walk rate. His strikeout rate was somewhat high, but it’s difficult to call Gordon’s debut anything other than a rousing success. Following the 2006 season, pundits heaped praise upon the former Cornhusker. In addition to the BA Minor League Player of the Year Award, Gordon was named the second best prospect in the game by the same publication.

Both scouting reports and statistics alike had Gordon pegged for a rookie tour de force, as Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system had his worst case batting line at .243/.320/.432. Given his patience and power, Gordon figured to hit the ground running in Kansas City.

While his rookie season was far from a disaster, Gordon’s initial taste of the majors was somewhat disappointing. He didn’t reach that 10th-percentile PECOTA projection:

2007: .247/.314/.411, 7BB%, 25.2K%, .164 ISO, 19.5 LD%, .304 BABIP

The keen batting eye that Gordon displayed at Nebraska and at Wichita didn’t translate as smoothly as expected, and his K rate predictably remained high. The .164 ISO ranked him toward the middle of the pack among third baseman and his line drive rate was solid, though Gordon had a pretty rough go of it versus southpaw pitching (.217/.266/.420).

This past season, Gordon would show a moderate amount of improvement, giving hope that 2009 will be his true breakout campaign:

2008: .260/.351/.432, 11.8 BB%, 24.3K%, .172 ISO, 21 LD%, .314 BABIP

Gordon upped his walk rate nearly five percentage points, while also slightly lowering his strikeout rate. His ISO improved just slightly as well. While the relevance of first half/second half splits can certainly be debated, it seems reasonable to suggest that they might mean more with a young, still-developing player who shows a significant increase in performance. Gordon hit .277/.392/.496 in 167 PA after the All-Star Break before missing time in late August and September with a hip injury. While he hit a robust .273/.370/.491 versus right-handers, lefty pitching continues to be Gordon’s nemesis (.234/.312/.317, 41 K in 187 PA).

While Alex Gordon didn’t get off to the lightning-fast start that was expected of him, it is important to remember that he will just turn 25 years old this offseason, and is coming off of a season in which he showed a solid amount of improvement with the bat. With several years of development time remaining and a broad base of skills with which to work, Gordon looks like a good buy-low candidate.

Remember when Brandon Wood was a top prospect? Back in 2005, he had a ridiculous 98 extra base hits in the California League, posting a .672 slugging percentage (along with a .323 average and .383 OBP). He added three more extra base hits that season in triple-A, giving him 101 XBHs for the season. Not bad for a 20-year-old shortstop.

In 2006 he hit .276/.355/.552 with 25 homers and 18 steals (and was only caught three times) as a 21-year-old in double-A. Excellent, right? Yet many people chose to focus on his 149 strikeouts in 118 games, and glossed over his otherwise-fantastic season.

Then in 2007 he was promoted to triple-A, where he hit .272/.338/.497 for Salt Lake, a notorious hitter’s park in a notorious hitter’s league. Sure enough, his OPS was 100 points higher at home than on the road. And he struck out 120 times in 111 games. To further complicate things, he struggled mightily in 33 at bats with the big league team, hitting .152/.152/.273 and striking out 12 times.

In 2008 Wood seemingly regained his stroke, posting an impressive .295/.375/.595 line with 31 homers (in just 103 games) in triple-A, although he did strike out 104 times. While his OPS was once again almost 100 points higher at home than on the road, he still managed to post a .913 OPS on the road, and he hit 15 road homers as well.

But he once again disappointed in 150 at bats with at the major league level, hitting .200/.254/.327. However, Wood did stroke five homers and steal four bases, although he also struck out in over 28% of his plate appearances.

There are a few things to keep in mind about Wood. First, and most importantly, he’s only 23 years old. That is still quite young, and there is still plenty of time for him to fix the various flaws in his game.

Secondly, Wood actually had two separate stints with the Angels this season. The first time around, he hit .125/.164/.188 with 1 homer, while striking out in 33% of his plate appearances. The second time, he hit .256/.270/.430 with four homers, while striking out in 25% of his plate appearances. While this isn’t great, it’s a marked improvement.

Finally, Wood was extremely good in triple-A this year. Even though he played in a hitter’s park in a hitter’s league, his Major League Equivalent (MLE) was .235/.316/.436 with 22 homers in 408 at bats. He also stole 6 bases. Obviously, that’s not fantastic, but it’s also not bad, especially for a guy who will qualify at shortstop.

Brandon Wood is still very young, and still has tremendous power potential. He will strike out a lot, and therefore probably won’t hit for a very high batting average. However, he’s likely to qualify at shortstop – and perhaps third base – and should hit a lot of homers – and even steal some bases – if given playing time.

Wood could be an excellent late-round flier, as he has a tremendous amount of upside and will likely be given a chance in the fairly near future.

Suffice it to say, new Pirates third baseman Andy LaRoche has not gotten his major league career off to a rousing start. Better known as “the guy who went to Pittsburgh in the Bay/Ramirez deal”, LaRoche was nonetheless considered one of the most promising prospects in a fertile Dodgers farm system.

You wouldn’t know it by examining his major league line, however, as Adam’s little brother put together a .166/.252/.256 slash line in 252 PA split between the Bucs and the Dodgers in 2008. LaRoche’s -1.82 WPA/LI put him in the sordid company of out-machines such as Michael Bourn, Omar Vizquel and Tony Pena Jr. So, who is the “real” Andy LaRoche: the guy with a rock-solid .294/.380/.517 minor league line, or the Andy Marte clone who has stumbled to a career .184/.288/.272 showing in 316 big league at-bats?

A 39th-round selection out of Grayson County Community College (TX) in the 2003 draft, LaRoche really burst onto the prospect scene during the 2005 season. As a 21 year-old in the High-A Florida State League, Andy put up a .333/.380/.651 line in 249 AB, popping 21 home runs. Vero Beach (his home ballpark) is known as a hitter’s park, but that’s still a pretty tasty showing for a young guy in advanced A-Ball. Bumped up to AA Jacksonville for the second half of the year, LaRoche compiled a respectable .273/.367/.445 line in 227 AB, with 9 home runs. Andy showed solid patience, upping his walk rate from 7% at Vero Beach to 12% with Jacksonville, though his K rate did increase (from 14% to 20.5%). Considering that Jacksonville plays as more of a pitcher-friendly venue, LaRoche’s second-half performance was solid.

2006 would be another banner year, as Andy showed excellent plate discipline in a return engagement to Jacksonville in the Southern League. In 230 AB, he posted a .309/.419/.483 line, with 9 dingers and more walks (41) than strikeouts (32). LaRoche’s walk rate climbed to a healthy 14.9%, while his K rate dipped to 11.6%. His power (.174 ISO) was mid-range, but the overall picture was bright: a player with refined control of the zone and doubles power. He would be promoted to AAA Las Vegas for the second half of the ’06 season, where LaRoche would compile a .322/.400/.550 line that conjured up memories of his 2005 slugfest, as he popped 10 homers in 202 AB. The SLG% can be looked at skeptically, however, as Las Vegas plays like a launching pad.

Andy would once again crush the ball in Vegas in 2007 (.309/.399/.589, 18 HR in 265 AB), showing the discipline (12.5 BB%) and low K rates (13.5 K%) that he had become known for. His first taste of the majors with the Dodgers would go at little less smoothly, as he posted a .226/.365/.312 line in 93 AB.

All of which brings us to 2008, a season in which LaRoche seemingly fell out of favor with Dodgers management. He put up a .293/.452/.439 line in 123 AB at Las Vegas, before he basically rode the pine for LA. As mentioned, LaRoche was shipped to the ‘burgh in a splashy deadline deal and proceeded to play at a level that made Pirates fans long for the days of Jose Bautista.

The first thing that needs to be mentioned here is LaRoche’s incredibly unlucky, break 100 mirrors/see a black cat/walk under a ladder .177 BABIP. That’s an absurdly low number, and even if we note that LaRoche hit line-drives at a below-average 15.6% clip, we would still expect his BABIP to come in at .276. If we adjust for that discrepancy, Andy’s ghoulish .166/.252/.256 line adjusts to .265/.351/.355. Yes, that’s still mild, but it doesn’t look quite so poor. And, given Andy’s 17-18% line-drive rate at the AA and AAA levels, we would expect his LD% to move upward in the future.

Another item that must be pointed out is LaRoche’s propensity to pull the ball in the majors. Andy’s minor league numbers paint the picture of a patient hitter with a high contact rate, a guy willing to spray the ball all over the field. Perhaps LaRoche still thinks he’s in Las Vegas, however, as he hit a groundball to the right side of the infield 37.2% of the time in 2008. LaRoche hit a grounder 49.5% of the time overall. Among third baseman with at least 200 PA, only former Pirates prospect-turned journeyman Jose Castillo put the ground on the ball more often. While Andy has certainly experienced some poor luck thus far, this is one area where he definitely needs improvement. You’re not in Vegas anymore, Andy: do what got you to the majors in the first place and spray the ball around the diamond.

While Andy LaRoche’s major league stats make fantasy owners want to avert their eyes, it is too early to write him off. That scary big league line is at least partially the result of terrible luck on balls put in play, and his minor league dossier reflects a player possessing excellent strike-zone control and doubles power. If Andy gets back to using the whole field, he could be a bargain. Those willing to look past a small sample of at-bats in the majors could be rewarded with a nifty under-the-radar player at the hot corner.