When the offseason opened up, most figured that the Angels would make a hard run at Adrian Beltre to fill the void at third base left by Chone Figgins last offseason. Well, the Angels did make a run at Beltre, but it wasn’t enough to lure him to Orange County, and now Mike Scioscia’s team will begin the season with the same mess of third basemen they had last year, namely Brandon Wood and Alberto Callaspo. Wood is looking more and more like a lost cause, but Callaspo has some fantasy value as a cheap option at the hot corner.

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OK, FanGraphers.  As you may have surmised from my single digit post count, I’m one of the new guys here, and as a new guy, it’s my responsibility to properly introduce myself and show you what I have to offer.  To do that, I’m going to have to take you out of your comfort zone today.  And by that, I mean I want you to put down your spreadsheets, drop your calculators, and set aside your usual stacks of number-crunching data.  I love stats.  I really do.  But sometimes, I feel that the human element of baseball is being lost in a sea of statistics and sabermetric primers, and it’s time to acknowledge the need to discuss these ballplayers as the people for which they are.  And what  better way to start it off then to talk about the comeback of Giants third baseman, Pablo Sandoval? Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve done a fair amount of reading on third base rankings headed into the 2011 fantasy baseball season. While most prognosticators and enthusiasts recognize some elite talent at the tippy-top of the list, references such as “terrifying,” “black hole,” and, ahem, “talentless batch of hackers” have described the rest of the list, which I might venture to simply call not terribly deep. Third base will present many managers with a challenge, but I’m not so sure there aren’t some gems to be had in this list.

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Ah yes, the contract year. It’s a very real phenomenon, something our own Dayn Perry brilliantly analyzed in Baseball Between The Numbers. Fantasy teams benefit from contract years just as much as real teams do, and if you’re lucky you’ll roster one or two such players a year. This is 100% subjective on my part, but I put together a list of five position players that could be primed to explode in 2011 with their eyes on a contract for 2012. Tomorrow we’ll tackle some pitchers.

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After a request from one of y’all, we’re going to try adding in auction value to our voting today. That will include both expected auction value and your auction value. If you don’t like auctions and don’t want to vote on those numbers, it’s fine, and I have not made it a required question. Let me know if you like it.

I’m surprised we haven’t done Jose Bautista yet over the course of this series. So surprised, in fact, that I had to search through multiple archives of mine to make sure I didn’t miss something. Bautista may have been the greatest waiver-wire pickup in history last year, as there is absolutely no reason anyone should have been drafting him. Sure, there have been great pickups in the past, but has anyone gone from waiver fodder to 54 home runs? I doubt it.

Aside from the massive home run total, Bautista set career marks in batting average, stolen bases, and every other fantasy category known to man. Making it all just a little more impressive, he did it with a .233 BABIP and 15% infield fly ball rate. Apart from the counting stats, Bautista also improved his walk and strikeout rates, posting by far the best BB/K he’s ever had.

Bautista was 29-years old during last season, and combining his age with a change in his swing meant extreme improvements. Now Bautista is 30-years old, and pitchers will likely have figured out some kind of hole in Bautista’s approach, or at least have decided to pitch around him. No one should be expecting Bautista to hit 50-plus homers again, but how many will he mash? If I knew the answer, I probably wouldn’t be here right now.

We are voting on where you think Bautista will be drafted by the average owner, as well as voting on where you would draft him. We are also trying out auction values today, both expected value and how much you would pay for Bautista. Please note we are pick number, not round this time because of Bautista’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we go a little older and try to nail down draft position for a proven vet. Just like last week, we are still voting on where you think the player will be drafted by the average owner (just like we’ve always done), but also where you would take him. Please note that we are back to round today and not pick number due to the expected results.

Coming off an extremely impressive contract year with the Angels, Chone Figgins joined the Seattle Mariners and watched his numbers drop in almost every category. Figgins struggled with strikeouts early on in the year, and at times looked like he was simply trying to get the ball in play and avoid the K. He somehow managed to steal more than 40 bases for the fifth time in six seasons, but a batting average below .260 made him waiver-wire fodder in a lot of leagues.

However, If you’re looking for reason to trust Figgins next year, look no further than his first and second half splits, as determined by the All-Star break:

First half: .235 BA, .291 BABIP, 20.6% K%,
Second half: .286 BA, .340 BABIP, 16.7% K%

Figgins also had a slightly higher rate of extra-base hits in the second half of the year, suggesting that he may have found his stroke and gotten back to his old form. Figgins is still past his peak, but thanks to his reliance on his stumpy little legs, he should still be able to put up solid fantasy numbers for another couple of years. But if you don’t want to buy into an aging speedster who’s overall numbers were sub-par last year, I understand.

Just like we started to do last week, we are still voting on where you think Figgins will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Also, please note we are using round, not pick this time because of Figgins’ likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we go topical. Just like last week, we are still voting on where you think the player will be drafted by the average owner (just like we’ve always done), but also where you would take him. Please note that we are still using pick number today instead of round due to the expected results.

Adrian Beltre, who had a lot of hype surrounding him last offseason thanks to his move to Fenway, has finally found a suitor in the Texas Rangers. Beltre looked very good while wearing the Red Sox uniform last year, and he posted a slugging percentage over .500 for the first time since his breakout season with the Dodgers in 2004. Beltre also went to work lowering his strikeout rate by making contact with balls outside the zone at a much higher rate. For the first time since 2003, Beltre had an overall contact rate above league average.

Moving from Fenway to Arlington may seem like a bad thing for Beltre’s fantasy value, but according to Statcorner’s park factors, Texas is a better place for righties to hit dingers compared to Boston. Moving to the Rangers will also affect Beltre’s run and RBI opportunities, but Texas still has a pretty good offense on their hands, even if they stick with Michael Young as their DH. Beltre will be in the lineup every day, and should hit in the middle of the order thanks to the absence of Vladimir Guerrero.

Just like we started to do last week, we are still voting on where you think Beltre will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Also, please note we are using pick number, not round this time because of Beltre’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

* Anyone not named Billy Butler and Joakim Soria, obviously.

Yesterday we looked at what remains of the Royals’ pitching staff to determine if any of those guys were worth a roster spot in a fantasy league, and today we’re going to move onto the position player crop. Fun starts after the jump…

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Dan Szymborski’s ZiPs projections for the Astros came out today, and the projections for that lineup are a depressing sight for Astros fans – or keeper-league owners with the misfortune of owning Astros. Let’s cover some of the low-lights, which happen to comprise the corner infield and middle of the lineup, here.

Brett Wallace: .261/.324/.414 with 17 HR and 59 RBI
We should have known this would be ugly when Bill James refused to project Wallace despite the fact that Wallace is probably the starting first baseman for the Astros this upcoming season. ZiPs projects a poor power output for a first baseman – his .153 ISO would prove to be barely above the .145 overall average last year, and squarely below the number qualified first baseman averaged (.203 ISO). Worse even are his plate discipline stats (32/129 K/BB). This kind of production might play while the Astros are in transition, but it won’t be a long-term solution, and if anyone steps to the fore and looks ready in 2011, they might even get a look this season. The only way that Wallace makes a good fantasy pick is if he drops too far (bench picks?) in a deep league draft – and even then, he’s probably a better late corner infield or utility solution than a first baseman. We always knew that Wallace had some stats that were inflated by his relative age and run environments, but these projections really hammer it home. This is why all his teams traded him.

Chris Johnson: .269/.303/.429 with 16 HR and 73 RBI
As bad as it sounds, having two mediocre corner infielders puts the Astros’ corner infield in the middle of baseball when it comes to at least one statistic. Their combined projected .160 ISO would have ranked 15th (tied with the Phillies!) in the league last year. Let’s hear it for the average guys! We all knew that last year’s .387 BABIP wouldn’t make it into the projections, and with his plate discipline last year (4.1% BB, 26.7% K) it’s no surprise to see that batting average plummet. What Johnson has going for him – that Wallace doesn’t – is his position. Last year, qualified third basemen put up a .174 ISO, which puts Johnson (.160 ISO) much closer to average at his position. The problem with these two men in fantasy, however, is that it’s much more likely that someone in your league values their upside just because of their age. And if they value their upside, they’ll pick them before you can. If your investment in Johnson is commensurate with the value of, say, the 20th-best third baseman in fantasy baseball – then he’s a value.

In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we stay in the news and revisit our old voting format.

While Werth and Gonzalez were stealing headlines, Mark Reynolds was dealt to the Orioles in a deal that was a tad surprising, considering the slugger’s reputation around baseball. For some, Reynolds is, and will continue to be fantasy kryptonite due to his extreme power and ability to steal a handful of bases. While his batting average tanked, and simultaneously went in the toilet, his power remained and he blasted 32 homers in less than 600 plate appearances.

However, Reynolds is now a problem child of sorts. He seems to have gotten it in his head that striking out 40% of the time was a-okay, as long as he hit a lot of home runs. So, Reynolds hit as many fly balls as he could last year, instead of focusing on just hitting the ball hard as he’d done in years past. The result was an ugly BABIP and a batting average below the Mendoza Line. With the drop in batting average came a drop in his slugging percentage, which dipped all the way down to .433, which is 110 points lower than his 2009 campaign.

Reynolds will be playing third base for the Orioles, but could slide over to first should prospect Josh Bell show some improvements in the minors next year. Moving from Arizona and the NL West to the tough AL East isn’t going to help Reynolds stock any, but how much will owners care?

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.