Remember the days when third base used to be one of the deepest positions and loaded with talent? Well, not anymore and not for the last few seasons either. It’s at the point where you need to start seriously considering a significant investment in one of the top 5 guys out there or be doomed to sit with mediocrity at a position once known for it’s outstanding power production. Read the rest of this entry »
Over the past six or so seasons few players have been as misunderstood as Adrian Beltre. The big contract he earned after the 2004 season in which he hit 48 home runs has clouded people’s opinion of him. Is he ever going to show that much power again? Probably not, but the 28 home runs and .233 ISO he put up last year show what he is capable of when he escapes Seattle. If you ignore his 2009 season in which he hit only 11 dingers, Beltre averaged nearly 24 home runs in the Emerald City. That number isn’t far off his 28 last season in hitter friendly Boston, but it came with a far inferior averge ISO of .188. The higher the ISO the better the opportunity for extra base hits. Safeco Field consistently ranks as one of the toughest parks in the majors for hitters, stifling right handed power like the Florida sun. Fenway Park is the polar opposite; a great hitters’ park that is the primary reason Jim Rice is in the Hall of Fame.
As good as Fenway was to Beltre, he’ll be spending the next five years of his life in an even better location: The Ballpark at Arlington. The .321 average Beltre posted last season should fall a bit since it’s unlikely he’ll maintain a .331 BABIP. However, the power numbers are real, and I’d expect him to run a bit more with the Rangers (123 SB last year, 68 for Boston) and increase his steals from 2 back into the 10-12 range. If you believe Beltre is only going to hit well in a contract year, then nothing I say is going to change your mind. For those of us who believe, and we do here at RotoGraphs if you check out our position rankings, the 2011 season should be good to Beltre.
Another third baseman on the move is strikeout king Mark Reynolds, leaving the hitter haven that is Chase Field for the beauty of Camden Yards. Baltimore is also a very good hitters park, so nothing substantial will be gained or lost in that department. Reynolds presents a conundrum for fantasy owners. His strikeout totals are astronomical, yet his power numbers are extremely coveted. Even in a year in which he hit .198 he somehow managed to smack 32 dongers in less than 600 at bats. The drop in batting average is due to a BABIP of .257, which is just a tad below his career average of .346. Reynolds’s FB percentage rose to a staggering 54.9% last season, seven percent higher than the previous year. The increase in fly balls means a drop in line drives and groundballs, resulting in far more outs and substantially less power – he dropped 50 points in ISO from 2009. He’ll be surrounded by a better set of teammates in Baltimore, taking the offensive pressure off of his back and creating more RBI opportunities than he had in Arizona. Cutting down on the fly balls will be the key to his continued fantasy revelance.
When the offseason opened up, most figured that the Angels would make a hard run at Adrian Beltre to fill the void at third base left by Chone Figgins last offseason. Well, the Angels did make a run at Beltre, but it wasn’t enough to lure him to Orange County, and now Mike Scioscia’s team will begin the season with the same mess of third basemen they had last year, namely Brandon Wood and Alberto Callaspo. Wood is looking more and more like a lost cause, but Callaspo has some fantasy value as a cheap option at the hot corner.
OK, FanGraphers. As you may have surmised from my single digit post count, I’m one of the new guys here, and as a new guy, it’s my responsibility to properly introduce myself and show you what I have to offer. To do that, I’m going to have to take you out of your comfort zone today. And by that, I mean I want you to put down your spreadsheets, drop your calculators, and set aside your usual stacks of number-crunching data. I love stats. I really do. But sometimes, I feel that the human element of baseball is being lost in a sea of statistics and sabermetric primers, and it’s time to acknowledge the need to discuss these ballplayers as the people for which they are. And what better way to start it off then to talk about the comeback of Giants third baseman, Pablo Sandoval? Read the rest of this entry »
I’ve done a fair amount of reading on third base rankings headed into the 2011 fantasy baseball season. While most prognosticators and enthusiasts recognize some elite talent at the tippy-top of the list, references such as “terrifying,” “black hole,” and, ahem, “talentless batch of hackers” have described the rest of the list, which I might venture to simply call not terribly deep. Third base will present many managers with a challenge, but I’m not so sure there aren’t some gems to be had in this list.
Ah yes, the contract year. It’s a very real phenomenon, something our own Dayn Perry brilliantly analyzed in Baseball Between The Numbers. Fantasy teams benefit from contract years just as much as real teams do, and if you’re lucky you’ll roster one or two such players a year. This is 100% subjective on my part, but I put together a list of five position players that could be primed to explode in 2011 with their eyes on a contract for 2012. Tomorrow we’ll tackle some pitchers.
After a request from one of y’all, we’re going to try adding in auction value to our voting today. That will include both expected auction value and your auction value. If you don’t like auctions and don’t want to vote on those numbers, it’s fine, and I have not made it a required question. Let me know if you like it.
I’m surprised we haven’t done Jose Bautista yet over the course of this series. So surprised, in fact, that I had to search through multiple archives of mine to make sure I didn’t miss something. Bautista may have been the greatest waiver-wire pickup in history last year, as there is absolutely no reason anyone should have been drafting him. Sure, there have been great pickups in the past, but has anyone gone from waiver fodder to 54 home runs? I doubt it.
Aside from the massive home run total, Bautista set career marks in batting average, stolen bases, and every other fantasy category known to man. Making it all just a little more impressive, he did it with a .233 BABIP and 15% infield fly ball rate. Apart from the counting stats, Bautista also improved his walk and strikeout rates, posting by far the best BB/K he’s ever had.
Bautista was 29-years old during last season, and combining his age with a change in his swing meant extreme improvements. Now Bautista is 30-years old, and pitchers will likely have figured out some kind of hole in Bautista’s approach, or at least have decided to pitch around him. No one should be expecting Bautista to hit 50-plus homers again, but how many will he mash? If I knew the answer, I probably wouldn’t be here right now.
We are voting on where you think Bautista will be drafted by the average owner, as well as voting on where you would draft him. We are also trying out auction values today, both expected value and how much you would pay for Bautista. Please note we are pick number, not round this time because of Bautista’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.
To submit your vote, click here.
In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we go a little older and try to nail down draft position for a proven vet. Just like last week, we are still voting on where you think the player will be drafted by the average owner (just like we’ve always done), but also where you would take him. Please note that we are back to round today and not pick number due to the expected results.
Coming off an extremely impressive contract year with the Angels, Chone Figgins joined the Seattle Mariners and watched his numbers drop in almost every category. Figgins struggled with strikeouts early on in the year, and at times looked like he was simply trying to get the ball in play and avoid the K. He somehow managed to steal more than 40 bases for the fifth time in six seasons, but a batting average below .260 made him waiver-wire fodder in a lot of leagues.
However, If you’re looking for reason to trust Figgins next year, look no further than his first and second half splits, as determined by the All-Star break:
First half: .235 BA, .291 BABIP, 20.6% K%,
Second half: .286 BA, .340 BABIP, 16.7% K%
Figgins also had a slightly higher rate of extra-base hits in the second half of the year, suggesting that he may have found his stroke and gotten back to his old form. Figgins is still past his peak, but thanks to his reliance on his stumpy little legs, he should still be able to put up solid fantasy numbers for another couple of years. But if you don’t want to buy into an aging speedster who’s overall numbers were sub-par last year, I understand.
Just like we started to do last week, we are still voting on where you think Figgins will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Also, please note we are using round, not pick this time because of Figgins’ likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.
To submit your vote, click here.
In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we go topical. Just like last week, we are still voting on where you think the player will be drafted by the average owner (just like we’ve always done), but also where you would take him. Please note that we are still using pick number today instead of round due to the expected results.
Adrian Beltre, who had a lot of hype surrounding him last offseason thanks to his move to Fenway, has finally found a suitor in the Texas Rangers. Beltre looked very good while wearing the Red Sox uniform last year, and he posted a slugging percentage over .500 for the first time since his breakout season with the Dodgers in 2004. Beltre also went to work lowering his strikeout rate by making contact with balls outside the zone at a much higher rate. For the first time since 2003, Beltre had an overall contact rate above league average.
Moving from Fenway to Arlington may seem like a bad thing for Beltre’s fantasy value, but according to Statcorner’s park factors, Texas is a better place for righties to hit dingers compared to Boston. Moving to the Rangers will also affect Beltre’s run and RBI opportunities, but Texas still has a pretty good offense on their hands, even if they stick with Michael Young as their DH. Beltre will be in the lineup every day, and should hit in the middle of the order thanks to the absence of Vladimir Guerrero.
Just like we started to do last week, we are still voting on where you think Beltre will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Also, please note we are using pick number, not round this time because of Beltre’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.
To submit your vote, click here.
* Anyone not named Billy Butler and Joakim Soria, obviously.
Yesterday we looked at what remains of the Royals’ pitching staff to determine if any of those guys were worth a roster spot in a fantasy league, and today we’re going to move onto the position player crop. Fun starts after the jump…
