Monday featured the third base version of the ongoing consensus rankings project and the results actually did reveal a pretty good amount of consensus from our four great minds, but there were some details and departures in opinions worth pointing out.

First of all, and this was teased out in the comments, it’s fairly likely we’re going to see names like Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, and Mark Trumbo on the list of the third base eligible come May (for most league formats, probably much earlier). In the case of the former two, it would shake up the rankings in the top five considerably, and there’s a good chance many of you are targeting Cabrera as the overall #1 pick given his new digs in the infield.

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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

And just because I’ve just finished up watching the Angels in Spring Training, I’ll jump to an absence on this list: Mark Trumbo. He’s not there because he’s not a third baseman yet. In the game I attended, he was the DH. Despite projecting him to be the starting third baseman for the FanGraphs Positional Rankings, I now believe the Angels will mix and match at third base — as they have done before — and that Trumbo won’t be the fulltime third baseman. The team can keep saying that they want to try him there, but if they keep running Alberto Callaspo out there in the spring, their actions speak louder. That means my projection of 461 at-bats, 24 home runs and a .243 batting average could really be dead-on. That’s a crowded team. If that more conservative projection holds true, Trumbo would be worth a little less than Lonnie Chisenhall on my list.

I don’t hate Pablo Sandoval, I just think that a couple of third-basemen will offer more well-rounded lines or more power. Ryan Roberts was held in different esteem by most of us — I felt that even with regression he’d be useful. It’s a little strange to see Daniel Murphy so close to David Freese despite the only Mets fan in the room being sour on his projections. Here’s the thing I may have factored more heavily than the others: Murphy is playing second base again, where he’s blown out his knee two straight years making the turn on double plays. My projections are not heavy on playing time.

The rest of our rankings are pretty similar. Well, we’ll see about Pedro Alvarez.
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I think it was Edison that once said something to the effect of “opportunity occurs when good fortune meets preparation.” While motivational quotes might not inspire Kyle Seager, this should be written in fancy calligraphy across his baseball card, because it’s opportunity that keeps falling into his lap.

The Spring started with the Seattle Mariners committing to Chone Figgins as their leadoff hitter, which was probably going to place him at third base a fair amount of time. They also had Carlos Guillen in camp to provide some third base insurance and perhaps some of that veteran savvy crap. This likely relegated Seager into some kind of utility role or perhaps having his ticket already punched for Tacoma.

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Headed into 2011, Martin Prado was ranked around 9th or 10th on most third base fantasy rankings, and in many, he was ahead of such gentlemen as Pablo Sandoval and Michael Young. Whoops.

At the time, there was a fair amount of debate about what exactly made Prado so special. He was essentially a two-category player (in traditional 5×5 leagues) being a plus at batting average and runs, and not much of a total drag at home runs and RBI. Prado was simply a guy that was hard to really get excited about and yet he generated a pretty good deal of fanfare among fantasy prognosticators.

And then of course, Prado went on to have a very disappointing season, producing a .260/.302/.385 line with 13 home runs and just 66 runs scored highlighted by a staph infection in his leg that put him on the shelf for most of June.

This year, Prado, 28,  has an ADP of about 150 in Yahoo leagues and 190 at mock draft central. The question is whether this precipitous drop in value is an opportunity or not. Read the rest of this entry »

I used to date a girl whose father was a used car salesman – and he had an uncanny ability to apply his motto to just about every facet of everyday life – that is, “everybody likes to feel like they got a good deal.” The underlying message, however was that people might like to feel like they got a good deal whether they did or not.

To his credit, this even applies in fantasy baseball. You might suggest Mat Gamel at auction at a price of $4 dollars and someone feeling like they’re getting a good deal takes him for $5. Yay, Mat Gamel! And yet, they probably could have had him for $2 bucks.

But let’s focus attention on actually getting a good deal at third base instead. And there are deals to be had, if early indications hold.

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Elsewhere, I’ve decried both the unfairness and the uselessness of the Mendoza Line. The TL;DR version is this: Mendoza was a bit player for the vast majority of his career, so naming the failure line after him for his one season as a regular –1979 with the Seattle Mariners — isn’t the most sporting of choices. As for its uselessness, it didn’t come up last season, but in 2010, Carlos Pena actually finished below the Mendoza Line with a .196 average. In doing so, however, he still managed a .732 OPS; hitting some 40 points better, but finishing with an OPS of .609 was Jose Lopez. Positional considerations aside, who would you rather have? Read the rest of this entry »

We rely on mock drafts to help guide us on trends without necessarily acting as the definitive voice. They’re somewhat like exit polls in politics — we’re just trying to get a pulse on public opinion before we see the actual results, with the exception that in mock baseball drafts, we can’t be entirely assured that a human being actually made the pick.

The problem being of course, is that mock drafts across formats is a lot like exit polls in Wyoming versus New York. So much depends on context. For instance – if you’re targeting Ian Stewart for any particular reason, Yahoo would suggest that you should expect to see him taken in the 20th round. If you trust Mock Draft Central, he is drafted at roughly 442, should anyone ever get to that round awake.

Stewart is an extreme case but it’s worth pointing out the differences in systems. As you well know, how a player is ranked in the draft room almost inevitably impacts where they are ultimately drafted — and some of the differences are so big that it could dramatically alter your draft approach.

Focusing solely on third base — here are some of the players that have a pretty major difference between Mock Draft Central and Yahoo’s current ADP. For the heck of it, I threw in any notable percentage changes in trend at MDC in case recent news has them moving up or down, and I tossed in the rankings of Eric Karabell over at ESPN (those that made his top 100 anyway).

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By the time you reach the last few rounds of your draft, your remaining options can look pretty scary.  Some people are grabbing middle relievers and potential save vultures, some people are picking up middle infield depth, and some are just stockpiling minor league players hoping that if you throw enough against the wall, something’s bound to stick.  For you, there can be another option and given the fact that we’re so far into the draft, the risk is minimal with a potentially enormous upside.  Laugh if you will, but Baltimore’s Chris Davis can make for an outstanding late round sleeper pick this year.

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Exactly fifty players stole at least 20 bases last season, but only six of them did it in fewer plate appearances that Eduardo Nunez. The Yankees’ reserve infielder swiped 22 bags (in 28 tries) in 2011 while only coming to the plate 338 times, and only four of those steals came as a pinch-runner. The six guys who stole at least 20 bases in fewer plate appearances fit into two basic categories…

Everyday Players in 2012
Dee Gordon (24 SB in 233 PA)
Jason Bourgeois (31 SB in 252 PA)
Desmond Jennings (20 SB in 287 PA)

Non-Everyday Players in 2012
Tony Campana (24 SB in 155 PA)
Eric Young Jr. (27 SB in 229 PA)
Jordan Schafer (22 SB in 337 PA)

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The scouting reports on Danny Valencia stayed pretty consistent from when he was drafted in 2006 to when he made his major league debut in the middle of the 2010 season: He does most things well enough, but without a standout tool, he’s probably more of an organizational piece than a potential star. When he came up in early June of 2010, he threw aside those labels, played strong defense, and hit pretty much everything that got close, putting up a .311/.351/.448 line with 7 HR in 85 games. He finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting and looked primed for a solid run as the Twins’ third baseman of choice for the foreseeable future. His BABIP was a little on the high side, but it isn’t as though his .345 mark was so inflated that his whole line was a lie. His BABIP did regress in 2011, but it did so as part of a sophomore slump so deep that it nearly exhausts the term, and that’s what has earned him a spot in this series. Read the rest of this entry »