Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

Teams with easier schedules include the Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Mets, Royals, and Yankees.

Teams with tougher schedules include the A’s, Mariners, Marlins, Rangers, Reds, Tigers, and White Sox.

Highlighted matchups:

Brad Keller sits just below our 50% ownership cutoff and he’s been a common recommendation in these columns this year. He’s continued to struggle with his command early this season but he’s also only given up a single home run and just 14 hits in 21 innings. He gets a nice matchup against the Diamondbacks in their dinger suppressing ballpark next week.

Another common recommendation, Kyle Gibson lines up to face the Tigers two starts in a row, once this weekend and again on Thursday. His last start against the White Sox didn’t go super well — four runs on seven hits and two walks with just a single strikeout in 5.1 innings — but the other three starts he’s made this season have been solid. His two-step against Detroit is just too good to pass up.

Colin Rea is also lined up to face the Tigers next week. He’s been a serviceable starter for the Brewers after Brandon Woodruff went down with his shoulder injury. He had a pretty good season in Japan last year and has looked decent in his return to the States. He held the Padres to a single run across 5.2 innings in his first start but was knocked around by the Mariners in his second.

José Suarez and Griffin Canning are scheduled to face the A’s at home next week. That’s a pretty juicy matchup, but beware the high home run park factor of Angel Stadium. Suarez hasn’t been good this year, with a walk rate that matches his strikeout rate. A date against Oakland seems like a good candidate for a get-right start. Canning is a bit more interesting. Injuries derailed a very promising start to his career over the last few years. He’s healthy and has made a couple of solid starts so far this year.

Jhony Brito bounced back from his ugly start against the Twins by holding the Angels to just a single run across 4.1 innings on Wednesday. He’s scheduled to face Minnesota again next week and will be looking to improve on his seven-run disaster the last time he faced them.

Recap: April 17–20

A really good week with four clear wins and no obvious losses. Keller’s start against the Rangers was dragged down by the five walks he allowed and Michael Wacha just hasn’t been able to replicate the magic he showed in his second start of the season against the Braves.

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

Teams with an easier weekend schedule include the Marlins, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies Rangers, Reds, and Twins. The Diamondbacks and Giants are both playing at home in their cavernous ballparks but they’re facing the Padres and Mets, respectively. On paper, it’s a decent matchup for Arizona and San Francisco because their opponents are underperforming a bit, but be weary.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Astros, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cubs, Mariners, Red Sox, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, White Sox, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

I’ve only got a handful of recommendations this weekend. The Orioles are hosting the Tigers who currently have the worst offense in baseball by a wide margin. That means it’s a great opportunity to drip Tyler Wells and Kyle Gibson into your rosters. The former has had a decent start to the year, allowing just a single walk in three starts with an acceptable amount of strikeouts and hits allowed. Gibson has been a successful recommendation twice already this season and this matchup is his best yet.

The Guardians will host the hapless Marlins offense this weekend, giving you another opportunity to drip Zach Plesac and Hunter Gaddis into your rosters. Plesac has been fine after his implosion in his first start of the year against the A’s. The strikeouts aren’t there but he isn’t walking anyone either. Gaddis has only allowed a single home run this season, relying on weak contact in the air to get many of his outs. His xFIP is an unsightly 5.74, however, so start him at your own risk.

The Rockies will travel to Philadelphia this weekend and Bailey Falter might be lined up for a start on Saturday or Sunday. The Phillies have a double-header today and don’t have an off day this week so their rotation might need to be reconfigured over the weekend. Keep an eye on whether or not Falter is listed as a probable for that series against Colorado.

Recap: April 14–16

A couple of recommendations ended up missing starts last weekend — Dylan Dodd was sent back to Triple-A when Kyle Wright was activated from the IL and Matthew Boyd had his start delayed by rain two days in a row. I think we can call Anthony DeSclafani and Michael Grove’s starts wins with Jhony Brito and Nick Martinez’s clear losses. Seth Lugo also struggled through his start, but ended up earning enough points to call it a wash.

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

Its feast or famine this week. Easy schedules include the A’s, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Guardians, Marlins, Rangers, Royals, and Tigers.

A bunch of squads have a tough matchup to start the week including the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Pirates, Phillies, Reds, Twins, White Sox, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

There aren’t a ton of great matchups to recommend this week with a bunch of riskier plays if you’re desperate for innings or need to hit your games started cap. Michael Wacha has been a little overlooked in these columns in favor of his rotation-mates Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo, but Wacha’s actually been pretty decent in his two starts this year. Impressively, he held the Braves scoreless over six innings in his last outing with ten strikeouts. He’s lined up to start against the Diamondbacks in Arizona on Thursday.

Brad Keller continues to impress with his revamped breaking balls; Stuff+ loves both his slider (137 Stuff+) and curveball (114 Stuff+). The only knock against him has been his lack of control of those two pitches early on. Everyone has scrambled to pick up his teammate Kris Bubic, but Keller deserves some attention too. He just held the Rangers to a single run in 6.2 innings while striking out seven on Wednesday and he’ll get to face them again at home on Tuesday.

Matt Strahm has yet to allow a run in three appearances and two starts this year and as long as he’s getting a chance to contribute in the rotation, he’s worth considering dripping into your rotation. I didn’t recommend him for his start against the Reds in the bandbox in Cincinnati but he gets a really nice matchup against the Rockies at home on Thursday.

Ken Waldichuk has had a really rough start to the season, allowing 17 runs in 15 innings. To be fair, he ran into the Angels and the Rays for his first two starts and looked a bit better against the Orioles in his last outing. His ownership rate has dropped below 50% in Ottoneu as frustrated players have cut him loose. Still, he was ranked 86th on the 2023 Top Prospects list and looked promising during his cup of coffee last year. If you want to take a chance on him, he has a nice matchup against the Cubs at home on the docket.

There are a couple of Guardians starters worth mentioning for their matchup against the Tigers in Detroit. Hunter Gaddis looked great against the A’s a week ago but got crushed by the Yankees in his last start. Peyton Battenfield made his major league debut this week against those same Bronx Bombers and held them to just two runs in 4.2 innings. He was ranked 40th on Cleveland’s prospect list and fits their archetype of pitchers who have a deep repertoire with a strong breaking ball, but struggle with their fastball. Both would be pretty significant risks, but the matchup and venue are pretty favorable.

Recap: April 10–13

Three wins and two losses last week and a bunch of meh. Strahm continues to be a solid recommendation and Bryce Elder impressed again. The Chris Flexen recommendation was an ugly affair but he had been such a consistent, if unexciting, starter last year I thought it would work out against the Cubs. It didn’t. Despite struggling against the A’s in his start on Wednesday, I’m recommending another Kremer start as you can see above. Maybe he’ll be able to handle the Nationals this time around.

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

A bunch of teams have easier schedules this weekend including the Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, and Tigers.

Difficult schedules include the Angles, Brewers, Cubs, Nationals, Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Twins, and White Sox.

Highlighted matchups:

Despite all the teams with bad matchups, there’s a full slate of recommendations this weekend. The two young starters from the Braves, Dylan Dodd and Bryce Elder, are scheduled to make starts in Kansas City against the Royals. The former had a rough outing against the Padres in his last start, allowing seven runs in 4.1 innings. The Royals should prove to be a much easier opponent. Elder just held the Reds scoreless over 6.1 innings in his start on Monday and hasn’t allowed a run in either of his starts this year.

The two Padres pitchers are creeping up in ownership since the start of the season and both are light recommendations against the Brewers. It’s not an obvious matchup to exploit since Milwaukee has actually been hitting pretty well to start the season, but it’s at home and both Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo have proven they can be counted on this season. The latter has been particularly impressive in his return to the rotation with another strong start coming against the Braves on Sunday.

Anthony DeSclafani turned in another solid start in his last turn through the rotation and he gets a really easy matchup against the Tigers in their huge ballpark. On the other side of that matchup, Matthew Boyd could be a bit more of a risky pick. He handled the Astros and Red Sox okay, allowing two runs in each of those starts, but he hasn’t been able to pitch out of the fifth inning yet. He’s allowed as many walks as he has strikeouts so the efficiency is still lacking.

Jhony Brito is lined up to make his third start of his career after capably handling the Orioles last weekend. He gets a tougher opponent in the Twins so this will be a pretty tough test for him. I’m recommending him anyway. Michael Grove did not fare well in his second start after impressing in his season debut; he allowed nine runs to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. He’ll get the Cubs at home in his next start and that’s a bit of a risk given the high home run park factor of Dodger Stadium. I’d understand if you wanted to wait and see how he performs this weekend before picking him up.

Recap: April 7–9

A much better weekend after those terrible results during the first week in April. I count two clear wins and no losses. The surprise was Brad Keller’s performance against the Giants. The strikeouts weren’t there, but he held San Francisco to just three hits in 5.2 innings of work. That’ll play. Nick Pivetta’s start got pushed back to Monday, but he performed well against the Rays, shutting them out over five innings with six strikeouts and just two walks.

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

Obvious favorable schedules include the Astros, Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, Rangers, and Orioles. There are also a handful of teams who are either playing tough opponents in pitcher friendly ballparks or against weaker teams in smaller venues; the A’s, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Red Sox, and White Sox fall into this camp.

Bad matchups include the Cardinals, Guardians, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Pirates, Reds, Rockies, and Tigers.

Highlighted matchups:

The series between the Orioles and A’s features three different recommendations. Kyle Gibson has thrown two decent starts so far this year with an 8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 innings. He introduced a sweeper late last year and it’s been featured pretty heavily in his pitch mix so far this season. Dean Kremer is a bit more of a risk, even with the weak opponent. He’s had spurts of success, particularly last year, and his first two opponents this season were pretty tough — the Red Sox and Yankees — but he’s also introduced a sweeper into his repertoire.

For Oakland, JP Sears is a repeat recommendation and Kyle Muller would have been but his ownership rate crossed over the 50% threshold this week. Sears struggled a bit in his first start against the Guardians, throwing 4.2 innings with eight hits allowed, one walk, and five strikeouts. Adam Oller is also lined up to start during this series and you’d have to take a pretty big leap of faith to consider starting him.

José Suarez and Matt Strahm fall into that camp of matchups in a dangerous ballpark against a weak team. The former ran into some trouble against the Mariners in his first start of the season but the Nationals pose a much weaker threat. Strahm threw four scoreless innings against the Yankees during his spot start on Tuesday. The lack of bulk is a concern as is the hard contact that went unrewarded in New York.

Bryce Elder was phenomenal in his spot start for the Braves on Wednesday, holding the Cardinals scoreless over six innings with six strikeouts. Atlanta’s rotation is a bit of a mess with two starters on the IL and Elder, Jared Shuster, and Dylan Dodd battling over who will get to stick in the big leagues once everyone gets healthy. Dodd and Elder certainly look more viable as major league starters and the latter has the benefit of a nice matchup early next week.

Recap: April 3–6

After a good start during the first weekend of the season, my recommendations last week were pretty brutal. I count two wins — Muller and Grove — with seven ugly losses including a ghastly -24.1 points from Plesac against the A’s and -22.1 points from Crawford against the Pirates. Ouch. I’m not not sure there are any solid lessons to be taken away from this group of really bad performances. I liked the matchups on paper, but sometimes pitchers throw stinkers against weak teams and you just have to roll with the punches.

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Let’s get into it.

Upcoming Schedule:

Favorable schedules include the Astros, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Rays, Red Sox, Royals, and White Sox. You may be able to get away with playing starters from the A’s, Pirates, and Yankees since they’re playing tougher opponents in safer environments.

Lots more teams to avoid this weekend, including the Angels, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres, Reds, Rockies, and Twins.

Highlighted matchups:

It’s a pretty light slate of recommendations this weekend with so many teams playing tough matchups or in poor environments. Nick Pivetta shows up for the second week in a row. Monitor his first start of the season against the Pirates today to make sure the increased velocity on his fastball carries over from spring training.

There are two starters who could be nice pickups in that Giants-Royals series, one for each team. Anthony DeSclafani started on Monday and held the White Sox scoreless over six innings while striking out four. He was an effective starter back in 2021 but injuries limited him to just five starts last year. If he’s fully healthy, he could be a sneaky addition with an excellent home ballpark. Brad Keller made his first start of the season on Sunday against the Twins and looked okay. He only lasted 4.2 innings, walked four, and struck out six. He introduced two new breaking balls to his repertoire this spring, though the command issues could be an issue as he figures out how to locate them properly.

Mike Clevinger handled the Astros capably on Sunday, throwing five shutout innings with eight strikeouts. He limited his pitch mix to just his fastball and slider and the latter generated a 44% whiff rate. That breaking ball lost a ton of effectiveness last year and it’s a big reason why he struggled so much in San Diego. He’s got a nice matchup against the Pirates in Pittsburgh to continue building off that early success.

Bailey Falter is a bit more of a risk since Citizen’s Bank Park is a very hitter friendly venue. The Reds offense isn’t good but the combination of opponent and ballpark still isn’t ideal. Falter threw 5.1 innings in his first start of the year, holding the Rangers to two runs on seven hits, striking out three.

Recap: March 30–April 2

As a way to keep myself accountable and just because I’m curious, I’ll be showing the results of my recommendations throughout the season.

Civale, Muller, Lugo, and Brito were pretty clear wins while Turnbull, Wacha, and Gonzales big losses. Looking back, it was probably too early to recommend Turnbull before he had even made a regular season start after his injury. Since these recommendations ran a week ago, Civale has cleared the 50% owned mark which is probably warranted. His stuff is pretty good and he was the recipient of some pretty bad luck last year. It was surprising to see seven strong innings from Lugo in his return to the rotation after spending so much of his career in the bullpen. If he continues to provide that kind of bulk with solid ratios, he needs to be owned in a lot more leagues.

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to what I hope will become a regular bi-weekly column this season. Streaming starting pitchers is a popular and effective strategy in fantasy baseball but the benefits are largely lost in a dynasty format like Ottoneu. The 48-hour in-season auctions make streaming in this format an exercise in foresight and planning while the deep rosters make finding starting pitching on the waiver wire tougher than in other, shallower formats. But finding ways to fill your innings pitched or games started cap is a real concern for many teams, especially considering the rate of attrition for pitchers in the modern era. In Ottoneu, you can’t really stream, but you can drip.

Read the rest of this entry »

In some leagues, certainly not all but some, when a fantasy manager runs out of starts, they can still collect stats from relievers. Some ESPN leagues are set up this way. They have a limit on starts, but no limit on innings pitched. The rule is put in place so that managers cannot stream a pitcher every single day of the season, effectively juicing their strikeout and, possibly, win counting stats. This strategy would almost certainly ruin ratios and should not be utilized. I would be curious to see a simulation of how a fantasy team’s ERA/WHIP would pan out if they streamed an average starter every day of the season, but that’s for another time.

Today, I’m writing this article to simply show 10 relievers who are not closers and have recorded the most wins this season. For those who have reached a starter max but can still record reliever innings, pick up these pitchers now! For those who just need a few more wins, start utilizing (if you haven’t already, why?!) the Roster Resource Closer Depth Chart and stream these pitchers in favorable matchups or after a day of rest. Here are the non-closer relievers who lead MLB in wins this season:

Predicting reliever wins is a difficult task. In fact, Steamer (ROS) is over it. If we look at all relievers (0 IP min) from 2021 and all relievers (0 IP min) from 2022, the correlation coefficient between their win totals is 0.42, good for a 0.17 R-squared. I’m also including pitchers who recorded zero wins in both years, which inflates the R-squared slightly, but still seems informative.

The fact that we see very few, if any, relievers in the top right corner of the graph shows just how unrepeatable high win totals can be for relievers across multiple years. However, in season, out of all relievers who collected at least one win by mid-July in 2021, 57% of them collected a second win in the remainder of the year. Change that threshold to at least two wins by mid-July, and 67% of those pitchers collected at least one win in the back half of the season. Here’s a breakdown:

What can we make of this? Relievers who perform well enough to be awarded a win in the first half of the season continue to get chances in the second half of the season. This is probably still very random. If a reliever is used in the sixth, seventh, or eighth inning often, they are increasing their opportunities to snag wins. But even the correlation coefficient between first half of the season wins and second half of the season wins in 2021 was still only 0.38 (0.14 R-squared). Reliever wins are mostly random, just like the official scorer’s awarding of the win can sometimes be.

Take for example Diego Castillo’s most recent win which occurred on July 16th. First off, that was a long time ago and if you’re just looking at the table of relievers above and adding them to your roster, you’re not doing enough. Regardless, Castillo threw in a tied (2-2) bottom of the ninth inning against the Rangers. He walked a batter, forced a double-play ball, and then struck out the third batter he faced. The Mariners then scored in the top of the 10th and Matthew Festa shut the door to get the save, giving Castillo the win. However, Paul Sewald got three quick outs in the bottom of a tied (2-2) eighth inning and was awarded nothing! He didn’t even walk a batter as Castillo did. Castillo got the win, simply because his team scored in the half-inning after he pitched. Random.

If you’re here at FanGraphs reading about baseball, chances are you have heard about the randomness of the win. Some of you may have even dropped wins from your fantasy leagues’ roto categories. However, it remains a common category and I would bet that the vast majority of fantasy leagues still count the win. If that’s the case, and you could use a few more before the season ends, you should bank on the relievers who up until this point in the season have been recording wins. Just hope that you’re rostering them on the random day that they record another.

Eno Sarris’s latest article and starting pitcher ranks include details about pitcher recency and how starting pitchers tend to “go in and out of funks”. It’s a good article, you should read it. But, I was much more intrigued by a Rob Arthur article Eno referenced from 2017 that I had never read before. Arthur and Greg Matthews summarize their research that seeks to predict in-season starting pitcher highs and lows, or hot and cold streaks, based on a pitcher’s fastball velocity. As a fantasy manager whose starters recently gave up 19 earned runs in one night, my interest was peaked by this gem of an article. Read the rest of this entry »