Archive for Streamers

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 3–9

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

July 3–9
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI NYM (120) PIT (158) Zac Gallen Ryne Nelson Zach Davies (x2), Brandon Pfaadt, Tommy Henry
ATL @CLE (102) @TBR (93) Spencer Strider Bryce Elder (x2), Charlie Morton Kolby Allard, Michael Soroka
BAL @NYY (138) @MIN (126) Tyler Wells (x2), Kyle Bradish Kyle Gibson (x2), Dean Kremer Cole Irvin
BOS TEX (54) OAK (142) Brayan Bello (vOAK), Garrett Whitlock James Paxton Brayan Bello (vTEX) Kutter Crawford
CHC @MIL (138) @NYY (115) Justin Steele, Marcus Stroman Drew Smyly (x2), Kyle Hendricks (x2), Jameson Taillon
CHW TOR (54) STL (47) Lucas Giolito (x2), Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech Tanner Banks
CIN @WSN (95) @MIL (138) Andrew Abbott Graham Ashcraft, Brandon Williamson Luke Weaver (x2), Alec Mills (x2)
CLE ATL (27) KCR (147) Gavin Williams (vKCR), Shane Bieber (vKCR), Tanner Bibee, Aaron Civale Shane Bieber (vATL) Gavin Williams (vATL) Cal Quantrill
COL @HOU (86) @SFG (151) Austin Gomber Kyle Freeland, Connor Seabold Chase Anderson, Peter Lambert
DET OAK (174) TOR (111) Tarik Skubal (vOAK), Reese Olson, Michael Lorenzen Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal (vTOR) Tyler Alexander
HOU COL (108) SEA (115) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier (vSEA) Cristian Javier (@TEX), J.P. France (x2) Ronel Blanco
KCR @MIN (126) @CLE (102) Austin Cox (x2), Zack Greinke (x2), Brady Singer Jordan Lyles, Daniel Lynch
LAA @SDP (88) @LAD (70) Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval Jaime Barría Griffin Canning, Tyler Anderson
LAD PIT (113) LAA (16) Clayton Kershaw (vPIT), Bobby Miller, Julio Urías Emmet Sheehan, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw (vLAA)
MIA STL (104) PHI (120) Braxton Garrett (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez Sandy Alcantara Johnny Cueto (?)
MIL CHC (63) CIN (43) Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes Julio Teheran (x2), Wade Miley, Adrian Houser Colin Rea
MIN KCR (163) BAL (97) Joe Ryan (x2), Kenta Maeda, Pablo López, Sonny Gray Bailey Ober
NYM @ARI (86) @SDP (88) Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander Kodai Senga (x2) Carlos Carrasco, José Quintana (?)
NYY BAL (77) CHC (68) Gerrit Cole Domingo Germán (x2), Clarke Schmidt (x2), Luis Severino, Carlos Rodón (?)
OAK @DET (167) @BOS (54) JP Sears (@DET) Hogan Harris, Paul Blackburn, JP Sears (@BOS) Luis Medina, James Kaprielian
PHI @TBR (93) @MIA (115) Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez, Aaron Nola (@MIA) Aaron Nola (@TBR), Taijuan Walker Cristopher Sánchez
PIT @LAD (70) @ARI (86) Mitch Keller (x2) Johan Oviedo, Rich Hill Luis L. Ortiz (x2), Osvaldo Bido
SDP LAA (45) NYM (104) Yu Darvish, Blake Snell (vNYM) Blake Snell (vLAA), Joe Musgrove, Michael Wacha Seth Lugo
SEA @SFG (151) @HOU (86) Bryan Woo (@SFG), Logan Gilbert (x2), Bryce Miller, George Kirby, Luis Castillo Bryan Woo (@HOU)
SFG SEA (158) COL (151) Logan Webb (x2), Alex Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood Keaton Winn
STL @MIA (115) @CHW (88) Miles Mikolas (x2), Jordan Montgomery Jack Flaherty Adam Wainwright (x2), Matthew Liberatore
TBR PHI (113) ATL (54) Zach Eflin (vPHI), Shane McClanahan Tyler Glasnow, Taj Bradley, Zach Eflin (vATL) Yonny Chirinos
TEX @BOS (54) @WSN (95) Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning (@WSN) Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi Dane Dunning (vHOU), Martín Pérez (@WSN) Martín Pérez (vHOU)
TOR @CHW (93) @DET (167) Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Kevin Gausman Yusei Kikuchi Trevor Richards (x2)
WSN CIN (41) TEX (41) MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin (x2), Patrick Corbin (x2), Josiah Gray, Trevor Williams

A few general schedule notes first:

  • Not many teams get a double helping of cake matchups next week. The Giants will head into the All-Star break with a homestand against two weaker offenses in the Mariners and Rockies. The Orioles also have a couple of easier matchups on paper next week, but they’re on the road and face a tough divisional matchup in the Yankees.
  • The Brewers, Nationals, and White Sox have rough matchups in both their series next week. Lucas Giolito has a two-start week but I’d be pretty hesitant to start him against the Blue Jays and Cardinals at home. Depending on how you feel about Corbin Burnes this year, he looks like a pretty risky start against the on-fire Reds.
  • A couple teams have wonky schedules next week. The Astros and Rangers wrap up a four-game series on Monday; Houston will host Colorado for two and the Mariners for four while Texas travels to Boston and Washington for a pair of three-game series. On the other end of the week, the Dodgers and Angels play a two-game series the weekend before the All-Star break with both teams taking Sunday off.
  • It looks like there are a handful of starters slated to come off the Injured List next week, including Carlos Rodón, Tarik Skubal, Johnny Cueto, and José Quintana. I’d recommend waiting to see how they fair after their injuries, though Skubal’s start at home against the A’s looks really enticing.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Joe Ryan
  • Logan Webb
  • Braxton Garrett
  • Tyler Wells
  • Cristian Javier
  • Logan Gilbert
  • Clayton Kershaw
  • Blake Snell
  • Shane Bieber
  • Zach Eflin
  • Miles Mikolas
  • Bryan Woo

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 26–July 2

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

June 26–July 2
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI TBR (93) @LAA (50) Zac Gallen (x2) Merrill Kelly 켈리 Tommy Henry, Zach Davies, Ryne Nelson
ATL MIN (131) MIA (122) Spencer Strider (x2), Charlie Morton Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, Jared Shuster
BAL CIN (86) MIN (140) Tyler Wells (x2), Kyle Bradish Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer Cole Irvin
BOS MIA (113) @TOR (93) Garrett Whitlock (vMIA), Brayan Bello, James Paxton Garrett Whitlock (@TOR) Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta
CHC PHI (93) CLE (61) Justin Steele, Marcus Stroman Jameson Taillon (x2), Drew Smyly, Kyle Hendricks
CHW @LAA (50) @OAK (193) Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech (@OAK) Michael Kopech (@LAA), Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn Touki Toussaint (x2)
CIN @BAL (72) SDP (59) Andrew Abbott Brandon Williamson (x2), Luke Weaver, Graham Ashcraft, Ben Lively 라이블리
CLE @KCR (156) @CHC (102) Logan Allen, Shane Bieber, Tanner Bibee, Aaron Civale Gavin Williams (x2)
COL LAD (70) DET (91) Connor Seabold (x2), Kyle Freeland, Chase Anderson, Austin Gomber, Peter Lambert
DET @TEX (48) @COL (52) Matthew Boyd (x2), Matt Manning (?), Joey Wentz, Reese Olson, Michael Lorenzen
HOU @STL (88) @TEX (48) Framber Valdez (x2), Cristian Javier Hunter Brown J.P. France Ronel Blanco
KCR CLE (122) LAD (129) Brady Singer (x2), Zack Greinke Jordan Lyles, Daniel Lynch
LAA CHW (127) ARI (27) Reid Detmers, Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval Jaime Barría (vCHW) Griffin Canning, Tyler Anderson, Jaime Barría (vARI)
LAD @COL (52) @KCR (156) Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urías (?), Clayton Kershaw (@KCR) Clayton Kershaw (@COL), Bobby Miller Emmet Sheehan
MIA @BOS (34) @ATL (45) Braxton Garrett, Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez Sandy Alcantara (x2) Johnny Cueto (?)
MIL @NYM (118) @PIT (165) Corbin Burnes Freddy Peralta Colin Rea (x2), Julio Teheran (x2), Wade Miley
MIN @ATL (45) @BAL (72) Joe Ryan, Pablo López Sonny Gray (x2), Bailey Ober Kenta Maeda
NYM MIL (163) SFG (54) Justin Verlander (x2), Kodai Senga, Max Scherzer Carlos Carrasco Tylor Megill (x2)
NYY @OAK (193) @STL (88) Domingo Germán, Luis Severino, Gerrit Cole Jhony Brito (@OAK), Clarke Schmidt Jhony Brito (@STL)
OAK NYY (170) CHW (181) Paul Blackburn (x2) JP Sears, Hogan Harris James Kaprielian, Luis Medina
PHI @CHC (102) WSN (100) Ranger Suárez (x2), Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler Taijuan Walker Cristopher Sánchez
PIT SDP (106) MIL (170) Mitch Keller, Johan Oviedo Rich Hill (x2) Luis L. Ortiz, Osvaldo Bido
SDP @PIT (165) @CIN (41) Yu Darvish (x2), Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo
SEA WSN (120) TBR (70) Luis Castillo (x2), Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert Bryce Miller, George Kirby
SFG @TOR (93) @NYM (118) Logan Webb Alex Cobb (?), Anthony DeSclafani Alex Wood (x2), Sean Manaea
STL HOU (127) NYY (106) Jordan Montgomery Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty Matthew Liberatore (x2), Adam Wainwright
TBR @ARI (79) @SEA (134) Taj Bradley (x2), Shane McClanahan, Zach Eflin, Tyler Glasnow Yonny Chirinos
TEX DET (116) HOU (100) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Dane Dunning, Jon Gray Martín Pérez (vDET), Andrew Heaney Martín Pérez (vHOU)
TOR SFG (27) BOS (59) Kevin Gausman (x2), Chris Bassitt, José Berríos Yusei Kikuchi, Trevor Richards
WSN @SEA (134) @PHI (79) MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin, Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray Trevor Williams (x2)

A few general schedule notes:

  • The A’s are lined up to face the Yankees and White Sox next week at home. Both of those opponents have been struggling offensively recently and the Coliseum is a fantastic pitcher’s park. This is a pretty good opportunity to start whichever Oakland starters you’re rostering.
  • The Blue Jays, Marlins, and Tigers have some pretty rough matchups next week. Both Toronto and Miami face the tough Red Sox offense; the former gets the red hot Giants in their first series of the week and the latter gets the Braves in a huge divisional showdown next weekend. Detroit will travel to Texas to face the potent Rangers offense and then travel to Colorado over the weekend. If you’re rostering any of the Tigers starting rotation, keep them on your bench next week.
  • The Dodgers are the other team to visit Coors Field next week, making Clayton Kershaw and Bobby Miller pretty risky starts. Thankfully, they head to Kansas City afterwards, giving the other half of their rotation some really nice matchups over the weekend. It’s also possible Julio Urías will end up making his return from the IL in that series against the Royals.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Luis Castillo
  • Spencer Strider
  • Framber Valdez
  • Nathan Eovaldi
  • Ranger Suárez
  • Taj Bradley
  • Yu Darvish
  • Zac Gallen
  • Tyler Wells
  • Garrett Whitlock
  • Kevin Gausman
  • Sonny Gray
  • Michael Kopech
  • Paul Blackburn
  • Gavin Williams

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 19–25

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

June 19–25
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @MIL (121) @SFG (124) Merrill Kelly 켈리 (x2), Zac Gallen Ryne Nelson (x2) Tommy Henry, Zach Davies
ATL @PHI (50) @CIN (64) Spencer Strider (x2), Bryce Elder, Charlie Morton AJ Smith-Shawver, Jared Shuster
BAL @TBR (103) SEA (130) Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin
BOS @MIN (110) @CHW (126) Garrett Whitlock (x2), James Paxton Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello Kutter Crawford (x2)
CHC @PIT (98) @STL (110) Marcus Stroman Drew Smyly, Kyle Hendricks, Justin Steele Jameson Taillon
CHW TEX (30) BOS (96) Lucas Giolito Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Lance Lynn
CIN COL (110) ATL (0) Ben Lively 라이블리, Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene Brandon Williamson (x2), Luke Weaver
CLE OAK (101) MIL (133) Aaron Civale (x2), Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie, Shane Bieber, Tanner Bibee
COL @CIN (64) LAA (39) Austin Gomber (x2), Kyle Freeland, Dinelson Lamet, Connor Seabold, Chase Anderson
DET KCR (183) MIN (160) Michael Lorenzen (x2), Reese Olson, Matthew Boyd Joey Wentz
HOU NYM (103) @LAD (39) Framber Valdez (x2), Cristian Javier Hunter Brown J.P. France Brandon Bielak
KCR @DET (160) @TBR (103) Brady Singer Jordan Lyles (x2), Daniel Lynch (x2), Mike Mayers, Zack Greinke
LAA LAD (48) @COL (62) Shohei Ohtani Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval Griffin Canning, Tyler Anderson
LAD @LAA (41) HOU (69) Clayton Kershaw (x2), Bobby Miller, Tony Gonsolin Michael Grove
MIA TOR (85) PIT (92) Braxton Garrett, Jesús Luzardo, Edward Cabrera (vPIT), Eury Pérez (vPIT) Edward Cabrera (vTOR), Eury Pérez (vTOR), Sandy Alcantara
MIL ARI (41) @CLE (117) Corbin Burnes (x2) Freddy Peralta Adrian Houser, Julio Teheran, Wade Miley
MIN BOS (135) @DET (160) Pablo López (x2), Bailey Ober (x2), Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Louie Varland
NYM @HOU (85) @PHI (50) Max Scherzer (x2), Justin Verlander Kodai Senga Tylor Megill, Carlos Carrasco
NYY SEA (105) TEX (48) Gerrit Cole (x2) Domingo Germán, Clarke Schmidt Luis Severino Randy Vásquez
OAK @CLE (117) @TOR (55) Paul Blackburn, JP Sears Luis Medina (x2), James Kaprielian, Hogan Harris
PHI ATL (11) NYM (92) Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez (vNYM) Ranger Suárez (vATL), Aaron Nola Taijuan Walker Cristopher Sánchez
PIT CHC (140) @MIA (147) Johan Oviedo (x2), Mitch Keller Rich Hill Luis L. Ortiz Osvaldo Bido (x2)
SDP @SFG (124) WSN (133) Michael Wacha (x2), Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove Ryan Weathers (x2)
SEA @NYY (140) @BAL (98) George Kirby (x2), Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller Bryan Woo
SFG SDP (124) ARI (89) Alex Cobb (x2), Logan Webb Anthony DeSclafani (x2), Sean Manaea, Alex Wood
STL @WSN (137) CHC (147) Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas Adam Wainwright, Matthew Liberatore
TBR BAL (105) KCR (176) Tyler Glasnow (x2), Taj Bradley, Shane McClanahan, Zach Eflin Yonny Chirinos
TEX @CHW (126) @NYY (140) Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray Andrew Heaney (x2), Dane Dunning Martín Pérez
TOR @MIA (147) OAK (87) José Berríos (x2), Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt Yusei Kikuchi, Trevor Richards
WSN STL (92) @SDP (78) MacKenzie Gore (x2) Josiah Gray (x2) Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin, Patrick Corbin

A few general schedule notes first:

  • The Cubs and Cardinals play in the MLB London Series next weekend which means they’re both off on Friday for travel. The last time teams played in England, the Yankees and Red Sox combined for 50 total runs across two games. The dimensions of London Stadium are particularly small — it would be the shortest center field fence in the majors — so avoiding the four pitchers scheduled to start this series would be prudent.
  • They aren’t the only team with a weird travel schedule next week. The Nationals and Diamondbacks are scheduled to play a make-up game on Thursday. That means Arizona will play in Milwaukee to start the week, head to Washington for a single game, and then fly all the way across the country to San Francisco for their weekend series.
  • Teams with more traditionally tough schedules include the Angels, Braves, and Dodgers. Shohei Ohtani manages to avoid pitching in Coors Field but he still has to face the Dodgers offense in his start next week. Based on his struggles recently, you’re probably better off sitting Spencer Strider in both of his starts next week. Atlanta plays in a couple of hitter friendly venues against teams who are playing particularly well recently.
  • I’ve only been calculating these matchup scores for a few weeks now, but the Reds somehow managed to pull a zero in their series against the Braves. That’s pretty incredible. Just for reference, that means they’re facing the best road offense and the best offense over the last two weeks in the worst venue for home runs in the majors.
  • Teams with easier schedules include the Pirates, Tigers, and Twins. All of Minnesota’s rotation has been a must-start for practically the entire season, but they’ve all got pretty cushy matchups next week. Detroit’s and Pittsburgh’s rotations are a little hit-or-miss, but there are some key contributors who should be easy starts next week.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Tyler Glasnow
  • Gerrit Cole
  • Pablo López
  • George Kirby
  • José Berríos
  • Garrett Whitlock
  • Merrill Kelly
  • Michael Wacha
  • Alex Cobb
  • Framber Valdez
  • Max Scherzer
  • Corbin Burnes
  • Clayton Kershaw
  • Bailey Ober
  • Johan Oviedo
  • Ranger Suárez
  • Aaron Civale
  • Michael Lorenzen

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 12–18

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

June 12–18
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
BAL TOR (72) @CHC (138) Kyle Gibson Dean Kremer (x2), Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells Cole Irvin
BOS COL (109) NYY (118) James Paxton (x2), Garrett Whitlock Brayan Bello Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck
NYY @NYM (127) @BOS (63) Gerrit Cole Luis Severino Domingo Germán, Clarke Schmidt
TBR @OAK (168) @SDP (103) Zach Eflin (x2), Tyler Glasnow, Taj Bradley, Shane McClanahan Yonny Chirinos (@OAK) Yonny Chirinos (@SDP)
TOR @BAL (142) @TEX (26) Chris Bassitt (@BAL), José Berríos Chris Bassitt (@TEX), Kevin Gausman Yusei Kikuchi Bowden Francis
CHW @LAD (17) @SEA (142) Michael Kopech, Lucas Giolito Lance Lynn (@SEA) Lance Lynn (@LAD), Dylan Cease Mike Clevinger
CLE @SDP (103) @ARI (96) Tanner Bibee (x2), Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie, Shane Bieber Aaron Civale
DET ATL (66) @MIN (103) Reese Olson (x2), Michael Lorenzen, Matthew Boyd Tyler Holton (x2), Joey Wentz
KCR CIN (92) LAA (92) Zack Greinke (x2) Jordan Lyles, Daniel Lynch, Brady Singer, Mike Mayers
MIN MIL (144) DET (164) Pablo López (x2), Bailey Ober, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Louie Varland
HOU WSN (63) CIN (55) Hunter Brown (x2), Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier J.P. France, Brandon Bielak
LAA @TEX (26) @KCR (151) Patrick Sandoval Shohei Ohtani Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, Tyler Anderson (vKCR) Tyler Anderson (@TEX), Jaime Barría
OAK TBR (103) PHI (118) JP Sears James Kaprielian (x2), Hogan Harris (x2), Luis Medina, Paul Blackburn
SEA MIA (74) CHW (138) Logan Gilbert (x2), George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller Bryan Woo
TEX LAA (59) TOR (52) Jon Gray (x2), Nathan Eovaldi Dane Dunning (x2), Andrew Heaney Martín Pérez
ATL @DET (177) COL (118) Charlie Morton (x2), Spencer Strider (x2), Bryce Elder AJ Smith-Shawver, Jared Shuster
MIA @SEA (142) @WSN (92) Jesús Luzardo (x2), Edward Cabrera, Eury Pérez, Sandy Alcantara Trevor Rogers
NYM NYY (129) STL (138) Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander Kodai Senga Tylor Megill, Carlos Carrasco
PHI @ARI (96) @OAK (168) Zack Wheeler (x2), Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker Ranger Suárez Dylan Covey (x2)
WSN @HOU (85) MIA (59) MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin (x2), Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, Trevor Williams
CHC PIT (63) BAL (125) Marcus Stroman Jameson Taillon (x2), Justin Steele Drew Smyly, Kyle Hendricks
CIN @KCR (151) @HOU (85) Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft, Ben Lively 라이블리 Luke Weaver
MIL @MIN (103) PIT (44) Corbin Burnes Freddy Peralta Colin Rea, Adrian Houser Julio Teheran
PIT @CHC (138) @MIL (107) Mitch Keller Rich Hill, Johan Oviedo Roansy Contreras (x2), Luis L. Ortiz
STL SFG (66) @NYM (127) Miles Mikolas Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Adam Wainwright Matthew Liberatore (x2)
ARI PHI (109) CLE (142) Merrill Kelly 켈리, Zac Gallen Ryne Nelson Tommy Henry (x2), Zach Davies (x2)
COL @BOS (63) @ATL (59) Connor Seabold (x2), Chase Anderson (x2), Austin Gomber, Kyle Freeland, Dinelson Lamet
LAD CHW (116) SFG (22) Tony Gonsolin (vCHW), Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin (vSFG) Michael Grove
SDP CLE (127) TBR (79) Joe Musgrove (vCLE), Michael Wacha, Yu Darvish Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove (vTBR) Ryan Weathers
SFG @STL (127) @LAD (17) Logan Webb (@STL), Alex Cobb Anthony DeSclafani, Logan Webb (@LAD) Jakob Junis, Sean Manaea

A few general schedule notes first:

  • After working through a tough schedule this week, the Twins have a couple of easier matchups next week at home; the Brewers are much weaker on the road and have been really struggling recently and the Tigers have one of the worst offenses in the league no matter where they’re playing. The Braves also have a pretty nice schedule next week, with three in Detroit and then four games at home against the Rockies.
  • The Astros and Rangers both have a pretty tough pair of home series next week. Houston will host the Nationals and Reds, both of which might seem like easy matchups, but both teams have been hitting pretty well recently. Texas hosts the high powered Angels and Blue Jays offenses and trying to avoid matchups against those two teams seems more justifiable. Still, with the way they’ve been pitching recently, you’re probably not going to sit Nathan Eovaldi or Jon Gray right now.
  • The Rockies head out on the road next week but they’ve got two really bad matchups lined up which means you’re probably sitting their starters if you happen to be rostering any of them.
  • Good luck trying to figure out which starters to start in that Dodgers-Giants series next weekend. Both teams have extremely low matchup ratings, a confluence of the home run friendly ballpark, the strength of San Francisco’s lineup on the road, and the always dangerous Los Angeles offense.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Pablo López
  • Zack Wheeler
  • Zach Eflin
  • Logan Gilbert
  • Charlie Morton
  • Jesús Luzardo
  • James Paxton
  • Tanner Bibee
  • Jon Gray
  • Hunter Brown
  • Chris Bassitt
  • Joe Musgrove
  • Tony Gonsolin
  • Logan Webb

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 5–11

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

June 5–11
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
BAL @MIL (142) KCR (177) Kyle Gibson (x2), Tyler Wells Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish Austin Voth
BOS @CLE (151) @NYY (83) James Paxton (@CLE), Chris Sale, Garrett Whitlock Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, James Paxton (@NYY)
NYY CHW (154) BOS (130) Nestor Cortes (x2), Luis Severino, Gerrit Cole Clarke Schmidt Domingo Germán
TBR MIN (142) TEX (80) Shane McClanahan (x2), Zach Eflin, Tyler Glasnow Taj Bradley Josh Fleming
TOR HOU (76) MIN (99) Kevin Gausman (x2) Chris Bassitt, José Berríos Alek Manoah (x2) Yusei Kikuchi
CHW @NYY (83) MIA (52) Lucas Giolito (x2), Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech Lance Lynn Mike Clevinger
CLE BOS (135) HOU (90) Shane Bieber (x2), Tanner Bibee Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen Aaron Civale
DET @PHI (90) ARI (140) Michael Lorenzen, Matthew Boyd Alex Faedo (x2) Joey Wentz, Reese Olson
KCR @MIA (132) @BAL (130) Zack Greinke Mike Mayers (x2), Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch Jordan Lyles
MIN @TBR (97) @TOR (57) Louie Varland (x2), Pablo López, Bailey Ober, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan
HOU @TOR (57) @CLE (151) Framber Valdez (x2), Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown (@CLE) Hunter Brown (@TOR), Brandon Bielak J.P. France
LAA CHC (76) SEA (99) Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval Reid Detmers Tyler Anderson, Griffin Canning Jaime Barría
OAK @PIT (125) @MIL (142) JP Sears (x2), Paul Blackburn Luis Medina James Kaprielian, Hogan Harris
SEA @SDP (121) @LAA (35) Logan Gilbert, George Kirby Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller Marco Gonzales
TEX STL (111) @TBR (97) Dane Dunning Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi Andrew Heaney Martín Pérez (x2)
ATL NYM (85) WSN (66) Spencer Strider Bryce Elder (x2), Charlie Morton Jared Shuster, Michael Soroka
MIA KCR (192) @CHW (106) Braxton Garrett (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara Eury Pérez
NYM @ATL (102) @PIT (125) Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga Carlos Carrasco (@PIT) Carlos Carrasco (@ATL), Tylor Megill
PHI DET (111) LAD (26) Aaron Nola (vDET), Zack Wheeler Taijuan Walker, Aaron Nola (vLAD) Ranger Suárez Dylan Covey
WSN ARI (92) @ATL (102) Josiah Gray Patrick Corbin, MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin (x2), Trevor Williams
CHC @LAA (35) @SFG (144) Marcus Stroman Kyle Hendricks (x2), Hayden Wesneski (@SFG) Hayden Wesneski (@LAA), Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly
CIN LAD (14) @STL (116) Hunter Greene (@STL) Hunter Greene (vLAD), Ben Lively 라이블리 Luke Weaver (x2), Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft
MIL BAL (66) OAK (135) Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta (vOAK) Adrian Houser Freddy Peralta (vBAL) Julio Teheran (x2), Colin Rea
PIT OAK (166) NYM (95) Johan Oviedo (vOAK), Mitch Keller Roansy Contreras, Johan Oviedo (vNYM) Luis L. Ortiz, Rich Hill
STL @TEX (33) CIN (90) Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas (vCIN) Adam Wainwright Miles Mikolas (@TEX) Matthew Liberatore, Jack Flaherty
ARI @WSN (71) @DET (161) Merrill Kelly 켈리, Zac Gallen Ryne Nelson Tommy Henry (x2), Zach Davies
COL SFG (45) SDP (111) Dinelson Lamet (x2), Connor Seabold, Chase Anderson, Austin Gomber, Kyle Freeland
LAD @CIN (40) @PHI (90) Tony Gonsolin (x2), Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller Michael Grove Noah Syndergaard
SDP SEA (130) @COL (31) Blake Snell (vCHC), Joe Musgrove Michael Wacha Yu Darvish, Blake Snell (@COL) Ryan Weathers
SFG @COL (31) CHC (135) Anthony DeSclafani Sean Manaea, Alex Wood (vCHC) Logan Webb, Alex Cobb Alex Wood (@COL)

A few general schedule notes first:

  • The Twins head out on a tough road trip next week with two tough AL East stops. Tropicana Field is pretty pitcher friendly which is why the matchup rating is so high against the best offense in the majors. Rogers Field is definitely not pitcher friendly and it’s only gotten more dangerous after the fences were moved this year. Start your Twins pitchers if you really need to but they’re all at risk of a blowup next week.
  • The Orioles and Yankees get pretty easy schedules next week. Kyle Gibson has a two-start week that you should probably take advantage of and the rest of their rotation is a pretty good bet to produce against the Brewers and Royals. The Yankees host the White Sox and Red Sox next week and both of those opponents are hitting far worse on the road than in their hitter friendly home parks.
  • The Rockies return home next week to host the Giants and Padres. That makes it pretty risky to start half the rotations from those two teams, though they do have nice matchups in their non-Coors series.
  • The Cubs-Padres and Brewers-Reds series over the weekend will wrap around into Monday. They’re not reflected in the table above but the starters for those teams are listed in their proper categories.

Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale are both on track to be activated from the IL over the weekend. Cal Quantrill was sent to the IL with a shoulder injury, though he probably would have been pushed out of a rotation spot anyway with both Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen thriving in the majors. Monitor McKenzie’s and Civale’s starts over the weekend to see how their stuff is holding up after their injuries. Both should be solid options going forward, though neither has a particularly easy matchup next week.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Shane McClanahan
  • Nestor Cortes
  • Shane Bieber
  • Framber Valdez
  • Kyle Gibson
  • Braxton Garrett
  • Tony Gonsolin</li
  • Lucas Giolito
  • JP Sears

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 29–June 4

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

May 29–June 4
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
BAL CLE (154) @SFG (169) Tyler Wells (x2), Kyle Gibson Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish
BOS CIN (98) TBR (30) Chris Sale Brayan Bello (vCIN), James Paxton Garrett Whitlock Corey Kluber, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello (vTBR)
NYY @SEA (115) @LAD (37) Gerrit Cole Domingo Germán (@SEA), Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino Clarke Schmidt, Domingo Germán (@LAD)
TBR @CHC (85) @BOS (71) Shane McClanahan (x2), Tyler Glasnow Zach Eflin (x2), Taj Bradley Josh Fleming
TOR MIL (95) @NYM (111) Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt Alek Manoah, José Berríos Yusei Kikuchi (x2)
CHW LAA (65) DET (117) Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech (vDET), Lucas Giolito (vDET) Michael Kopech (vLAA), Lucas Giolito (vLAA), Lance Lynn
CLE @BAL (106) @MIN (63) Logan Allen (x2), Shane Bieber Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale
DET TEX (85) @CHW (106) Eduardo Rodriguez Matthew Boyd (x2), Michael Lorenzen Alex Faedo, Joey Wentz
KCR @STL (59) COL (158) Brady Singer Jordan Lyles, Daniel Lynch Mike Mayers, Zack Greinke
MIN @HOU (91) CLE (150) Sonny Gray (x2), Joe Ryan (x2), Pablo López, Bailey Ober Louie Varland
HOU MIN (80) LAA (82) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier J.P. France (x2) Brandon Bielak (x2)
LAA @CHW (106) @HOU (91) Shohei Ohtani Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval Tyler Anderson Jaime Barría (x2), Griffin Canning
OAK ATL (98) @MIA (130) JP Sears, Luis Medina Paul Blackburn (x2), Ken Waldichuk, James Kaprielian
SEA NYY (76) @TEX (30) Bryce Miller (x2), Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Luis Castillo Marco Gonzales
TEX @DET (169) SEA (100) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Martín Pérez, Jon Gray Dane Dunning Andrew Heaney
ATL @OAK (184) @ARI (89) Bryce Elder (@OAK), Spencer Strider Jared Shuster, Charlie Morton, Bryce Elder (@ARI) Dylan Dodd
MIA SDP (163) OAK (163) Sandy Alcantara (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera
NYM PHI (100) TOR (61) Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander Kodai Senga (x2) Carlos Carrasco Tylor Megill
PHI @NYM (111) @WSN (72) Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez (@WSN) Ranger Suárez (@NYM) Taijuan Walker Dylan Covey
WSN @LAD (37) PHI (76) Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore Trevor Williams (x2), Jake Irvin, Patrick Corbin
CHC TBR (39) @SDP (128) Marcus Stroman (@SDP) Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly Marcus Stroman (vTBR), Justin Steele Kyle Hendricks
CIN @BOS (71) MIL (82) Hunter Greene Ben Lively 라이블리 (x2), Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft Luke Weaver
MIL @TOR (63) @CIN (54) Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes Adrian Houser (x2), Julio Teheran, Colin Rea
PIT @SFG (169) STL (63) Mitch Keller Rich Hill (@SFG), Johan Oviedo Roansy Contreras, Vince Velasquez Rich Hill (vSTL)
STL KCR (176) @PIT (150) Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery Steven Matz, Jack Flaherty
ARI COL (152) ATL (89) Zac Gallen (x2), Merrill Kelly 켈리 Ryne Nelson (vCOL), Brandon Pfaadt Tommy Henry, Ryne Nelson (vATL)
COL @ARI (89) @KCR (165) Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber Dinelson Lamet Karl Kauffmann (x2), Connor Seabold, Chase Anderson
LAD WSN (43) NYY (54) Tony Gonsolin Clayton Kershaw Bobby Miller (x2), Noah Syndergaard, Gavin Stone
SDP @MIA (130) CHC (69) Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish Michael Wacha Ryan Weathers (@MIA) Ryan Weathers (vCHC)
SFG PIT (139) BAL (93) Anthony DeSclafani (x2), Logan Webb, Alex Cobb Sean Manaea, Alex Wood

A few general schedule notes first:

  • The Brewers embark on a pretty tough road trip next week with stops in Toronto and Cincinnati. Both of those ballparks are incredibly conducive to home runs and both opponents play extremely well at home. Half of their rotation wouldn’t be recommended even if the matchup was good, but it’s probably a week where you’re more likely to sit Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta.
  • After a tough pair of matchups on the road this week, the Marlins return home next week to host a couple of pretty weak lineups in their cavernous ballpark. The Orioles also have two easier matchups on the schedule which should help with some of your decision-making if you’re rostering any of their starters.
  • The Royals and Cardinals have a weird two-game series next week followed by two off days in a row. It’s a scheduling quirk that’s a result of the holiday on Monday. St. Louis will get a chance for some extra rest during a week where they’re facing two weak teams.
  • The Rockies are on the road next week and have a particularly enticing matchup in Kansas City next weekend giving you an opportunity to start Kyle Freeland or Austin Gomber — if you’re rostering them, you’ve been waiting for exactly this situation!

The Nationals offense has been hitting really well over the last two weeks and they’ve been pretty productive on the road this year making that matchup in Los Angeles particularly tough for the Dodgers. It doesn’t help that Dodger Stadium is pretty home run friendly either. After the Nats, the Yankees come to town which looks like an equally challenging series. Due to all the injuries sustained in their starting rotation, rookies Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone are lined up to take the ball in three games next week; all three look like pretty risky propositions even if the matchup against Washington seems enticing on paper.

The Mariners head to Texas to face the red hot Rangers next weekend which opens up some tough choices for a couple of their starters. Marco Gonzales is an easy sit, but Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo are scheduled to take the mound in the other two games and they’ll face a really strong offense. I’ve listed them both as starts since Miller has been simply dominant across his first five starts in the majors and Castillo looked much better in his last start against the A’s. I’d understand if you chose to avoid that matchup though since it looks really poor on paper.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Joe Ryan
  • Shane McClanahan
  • Sandy Alcantara
  • Zac Gallen
  • Nathan Eovaldi
  • Sonny Gray
  • Anthony DeSclafani
  • Bryce Miller
  • Tyler Wells
  • Logan Allen

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 22–28

Welcome back to the SP Drip— *record scratch* Wait, that headline doesn’t say “Drip.” After gathering feedback from across the Ottoneu universe, I’ve heard loud and clear that streaming recommendations — even in their adjusted form I presented in this biweekly column — just weren’t providing enough value for owners. Instead, they’re looking for sit/start recommendations further up the SP chain. Personally, I found that the same handful of pitchers ended up being recommended over and over again in the Drip — it turns out that the deep rosters of the format mean there are very few viable starters who are owned in less than half the leagues across Ottoneu. I’m still not sure what Tuesday’s article will look like moving forward, but on Fridays, you’ll get the full picture of the week ahead. Introducing the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner!

What I’ve done below is organize every starter on all 30 teams based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid and sorted them into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. As this is the first run of this new format, please let me know if there’s any feedback or questions.

May 22–28
Team Series 1 Series 2 Start Maybe Risky Sit
BAL @NYY (57) TEX (89) Grayson Rodriguez Kyle Bradish (x2), Tyler Wells, Kyle Gibson Dean Kremer
BOS @LAA (59) @ARI (68) Chris Sale James Paxton Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock, Corey Kluber
NYY BAL (68) SDP (148) Gerrit Cole (x2), Luis Severino Nestor Cortes Clarke Schmidt, Jhony Brito
TBR TOR (94) LAD (144) Shane McClanahan Zach Eflin Taj Bradley (x2), Tyler Glasnow Josh Fleming (x2)
TOR @TBR (64) @MIN (100) Kevin Gausman Alek Manoah, Chris Bassitt (@MIN), José Berríos (@MIN) Chris Bassitt (@TBR), José Berríos (@TBR) Yusei Kikuchi
CHW @CLE (158) @DET (183) Dylan Cease (x2), Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn Mike Clevinger (x2), Michael Kopech
CLE CHW (100) STL (55) Logan Allen Cal Quantrill, Tanner Bibee, Shane Bieber Peyton Battenfield (vCHW) Peyton Battenfield (vSTL)
DET @KCR (123) CHW (135) Eduardo Rodriguez (x2) Michael Lorenzen (x2) Matthew Boyd Alex Faedo, Joey Wentz
KCR DET (187) WSN (110) Brady Singer (x2) Zack Greinke Daniel Lynch Jordan Lyles, Brad Keller
MIN SFG (96) TOR (82) Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan Bailey Ober (vSFG), Louie Varland, Pablo López Bailey Ober (vTOR)
HOU @MIL (96) @OAK (155) Cristian Javier (x2), Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez J.P. France Brandon Bielak
LAA BOS (50) MIA (114) Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Shohei Ohtani Chase Silseth, Griffin Canning, Tyler Anderson
OAK @SEA (128) HOU (155) JP Sears Drew Rucinski 루친스키 (x2), Luis Medina (x2), Ken Waldichuk, Kyle Muller
SEA OAK (71) PIT (116) Luis Castillo (x2), Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby Marco Gonzales (x2)
TEX @PIT (164) @BAL (130) Dane Dunning (x2), Nathan Eovaldi Martín Pérez, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney
ATL LAD (128) PHI (110) Spencer Strider (x2) Charlie Morton Bryce Elder Dylan Dodd (x2), Jared Shuster
MIA @COL (52) @LAA (59) Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo Edward Cabrera (x2), Eury Pérez (x2), Braxton Garrett
NYM @CHC (94) @COL (52) Kodai Senga (@CHC) Tylor Megill, Carlos Carrasco, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander Kodai Senga (@COL)
PHI ARI (36) @ATL (71) Matt Strahm (x2), Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler Taijuan Walker (x2), Ranger Suárez
WSN SDP (141) @KCR (123) MacKenzie Gore (x2) Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin
CHC NYM (132) CIN (100) Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele Drew Smyly (x2) Jameson Taillon, Kyle Hendricks
CIN STL (27) @CHC (94) Hunter Greene Graham Ashcraft (@CHC) Graham Ashcraft (vSTL) Brandon Williamson (x2), Ben Lively 라이블리, Luke Weaver
MIL HOU (110) SFG (71) Corbin Burnes (x2), Freddy Peralta Colin Rea (x2), Adrian Houser, Eric Lauer
PIT TEX (89) @SEA (128) Mitch Keller Roansy Contreras Johan Oviedo, Luis L. Ortiz (@SEA) Luis L. Ortiz (vTEX), Rich Hill
STL @CIN (52) @CLE (158) Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery (@CLE) Jordan Montgomery (@CIN) Matthew Liberatore, Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz
ARI @PHI (89) BOS (96) Zac Gallen Merrill Kelly 켈리 Tommy Henry (x2), Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt
COL MIA (107) NYM (96) Chase Anderson (x2), Austin Gomber (x2), Karl Kauffmann, Kyle Freeland, Connor Seabold
LAD @ATL (71) @TBR (64) Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw Gavin Stone (x2), Noah Syndergaard
SDP @WSN (96) @NYY (57) Yu Darvish (@WSN), Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove Yu Darvish (@NYY) Michael Wacha, Ryan Weathers
SFG @MIN (100) @MIL (96) Alex Cobb (x2), Anthony DeSclafani, Logan Webb Alex Wood Ross Stripling (x2)

A few general schedule notes first:

  • The Red Sox have a couple of tough matchups on the West Coast in Los Angeles and Arizona. Angel Stadium is a home run heaven and the Angels are always dangerous with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani swinging big sticks, and the Diamondbacks have been one of the hottest teams in baseball recently.
  • The Marlins also get to visit Angel Stadium but they have a date in Coors Field first. That means there are a bunch of solid Miami starters who have really poor recommendations this week and it’s a rough stretch for the rookie Eury Pérez.
  • The White Sox will face the two worst offenses in baseball next week which means guys like Mike Clevinger and Michael Kopech are viable starters.
  • The Rangers also have a pair of favorable matchups next week in Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Dane Dunning has been brilliant since joining the rotation and he gets a pair of starts in some cavernous ballparks.

Despite their fantastic record recently, the Dodgers offense has been particularly bad on the road this year and hasn’t been hitting all that well over the last two weeks either. That makes the matchup against the Rays next weekend particularly enticing for Tampa Bay starters. Tyler Glasnow is scheduled to come off the Injured List during that series and I want to rank him higher with the nice matchup to cushion his activation, but it’s so hard to predict what we’ll see from him after his spring injury.

The Mets travel to Coors Field next weekend and Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are lined up to start two of those games. Neither one has been an automatic start this year anyway — both have dealt with injuries and Scherzer has been inconsistent when he’s been healthy. It’s tough to sit the pitchers you’ve invested a ton of your salary cap into, but I wouldn’t trust either of them in the thin air in Denver.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Eduardo Rodriguez (@KCR, vCHW)
  • Gerrit Cole (vBAL, vSDP)
  • Dylan Cease (@CLE, @DET)
  • Spencer Strider (vLAD, vPHI)
  • Cristian Javier (@MIL, @OAK)
  • Alex Cobb (@MIN, @MIL)
  • Corbin Burnes (vHOU, vSFG)
  • Luis Castillo (vOAK, vPIT)
  • Dane Dunning (@PIT, @BAL)
  • MacKenzie Gore (vSDP, @KCR)
  • Brady Singer (vDET, vWSN)

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: May 19–21

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

May 19–21
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
ATL .349 98 SEA .304
PIT .318 95 ARI .335
CIN .310 116 NYY .318
TBR .368 94 MIL .311
WSN .307 104 DET .287
PHI .324 106 CHC .334
TOR .326 105 BAL .326
NYM .313 97 CLE .284
TEX .339 101 COL .314
HOU .300 102 OAK .304
CHW .300 108 KCR .300
STL .336 94 LAD .335
LAA .331 107 MIN .314
SDP .307 98 BOS .340
SFG .324 90 MIA .301

Teams with favorable schedules over the weekend include the Braves, Diamondbacks, Giants, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Rays, Rangers, and Red Sox.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, Mariners, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Reds, Rockies, Twins, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starters
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Carlos Carrasco 36.54% CLE .284 7.40 0.0% 1.98
James Paxton 30.77% SDP .307 2.90 40.0% 1.80
Jake Irvin 4.17% DET .287 5.24 9.4% 0.00
Patrick Corbin 1.28% DET .287 4.61 10.7% 1.42

There’s a couple of recommendations in that Nationals-Tigers series. I’ll talk about Irvin below, but Patrick Corbin deserves some more attention after holding the Mets to just two runs in six innings yesterday. The strikeouts weren’t there — just one in the outing — but he’s now strung together four good starts in a row.

James Paxton came off the IL over the weekend and looked pretty good in his first start in more than two years. He struck out nine, walked one, and allowed just four hits in five innings. His velocity looked good and his stuff looked as good as it did back when he was a frontline starter for the Mariners. He’s lined up to start against the Padres which feels like a pretty risky matchup, but San Diego’s offense is mired in a season-long slump and you have to hope that Paxton is up to the challenge of shutting down their star studded lineup.

Carlos Carrasco is scheduled to come off the IL on Saturday and gets a nice easy matchup against his former team to ease him back to the big leagues. He wasn’t pitching very well before hitting the shelf with his elbow injury and I’d usually recommend waiting a bit after a pitcher is activated off the IL to let him settle back into their routine. The matchup is just too good to pass up and he’ll be extra motivated since this is the first time he’ll be facing the Guardians since coming over to the Mets a few years ago.

Hot Starters:

Strong Starters, Last Two Weeks
Pitcher IP FIP K-BB% HR/9 P/IP
Jake Irvin 15.1 3.43 9.4% 0.00 5.24
Zack Greinke 15.2 4.06 15.3% 1.15 4.73

Since being called up at the beginning of the month, Jake Irvin has made a couple of good starts against the Cubs and Giants but was blown up for six runs in his last start against the Mets. The good news is that he struck out six and walked just one in that outing. He wasn’t a highly regarded prospect in the Nationals organization with the profile of a back-end starter. He’s got a nice matchup against the Tigers on Friday and that’s a good opportunity to see if he can bounce back from his last start and continue building on the success he saw in San Francisco.

Zack Greinke is still hanging around pitching for the Royals in his old age. His crafty approach to pitching worked well for him in his return to Kansas City last year and he’s back at it again this season. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed six runs in 15.2 innings with a 10:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s lined up to face the White Sox this weekend and then the Tigers next week.

Recap: May 12–14

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Ryne Nelson 4.2 -3.3 -0.70
Matthew Boyd 1.1 -13.1 -9.85
Marco Gonzales 6 20.1 3.35
J.P. France 6.2 32.2 4.83
Adrian Houser 4 -2.5 -0.63
Total 22.2 33.4 1.47
Season Total 414.1 1234.1 2.98

Another rough round of recommendations as Ryne Nelson, Matthew Boyd, and Adrian Houser just didn’t have it last weekend. J.P. France looked pretty good against the White Sox, lasting into the seventh inning with just a single run allowed on three hits and one walk.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: May 15–18

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

May 15–18
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
BOS 0.344 100 SEA 0.299
BAL 0.329 95 LAA 0.329
DET 0.291 93 PIT 0.326
MIA 0.297 93 WSN 0.304
TOR 0.327 105 NYY 0.309
NYM 0.315 97 TBR 0.368
STL 0.326 94 MIL 0.310
TEX 0.339 101 ATL 0.349
HOU 0.298 102 CHC 0.339
CHW 0.301 108 CLE 0.276
COL 0.313 111 CIN 0.307
OAK 0.306 91 ARI 0.332
SDP 0.314 98 KCR 0.304
SFG 0.327 90 PHI 0.326
LAD 0.337 107 MIN 0.302

Teams with favorable schedules next week include the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Giants, Marlins, Nationals, Padres, Phillies, Pirates, and Tigers.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Astros, Braves, Mariners, Mets, Rangers, Reds, Rockies, Twins, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starters
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Ryne Nelson 44.87% OAK 0.306 4.73 7.6% 1.25
Nick Pivetta 31.09% SEA 0.299 5.79 13.3% 2.08
Michael Lorenzen 5.13% PIT 0.326 4.20 10.3% 0.96
Rich Hill 3.53% DET 0.291 5.03 12.7% 1.74

There are a pair of starters in that short two-game Pirates-Tigers series that make for nice targets. Rich Hill has put together a solid stretch of starts, particularly against some weaker opponents. Michael Lorenzen is a bit more of a risk against a Pittsburgh offense that’s been pretty potent to start the season. However, the Pirates have scuffled a bit over the last two weeks (.305 wOBA) and Comerica Park provides a friendly venue.

Nick Pivetta could also be a risky start, though the Mariners offense has been really struggling recently. He can’t stop allowing home runs, allowing at least one in every start save one (against the Rays of all teams). With a HR/9 over two, he’s been killing his Ottoneu value despite a passable strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Hot Starters:

Strong Starters, Last Two Weeks
Pitcher IP FIP K-BB% HR/9 P/IP
Dane Dunning 14.1 2.68 12.7% 0.00 6.03
Dean Kremer 17 2.84 9.6% 0.00 4.66

Dane Dunning has been filling in for the injured Jacob deGrom and has put together two solid starts against the Angels — five scoreless with just two hits allowed — and the Mariners — six innings of two-run ball. His stuff isn’t overpowering, but if he’s hitting his spots with his command, he can be effective. So far, that seems to be what’s driving his success. His next start will be against the Braves which will be a pretty significant challenge. Monitor that start and see how he looks afterward.

Dean Kremer has turned in a pair of impressive starts against some very difficult opposition, holding the Braves to just a single run last week and keeping the Rays off the board in his start this week. Those are the two best offenses in the league and his ability to handle them feels like a pretty significant step forward for him.

Recap: May 8–11

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Vince Velasquez N/A
Jhony Brito 4.1 -8.5 -1.97
Dane Dunning 6 35.8 5.97
Michael Lorenzen 7 44.8 6.40
Rich Hill 3.2 18.7 5.11
Peyton Battenfield 6 34.2 5.70
Total 27 125.0 4.63
Season Total 391.2 1200.7 3.07

Now that’s more like it. Even with the stinker of a start from Jhony Brito, Dunning, Lorenzen, Hill, and Battenfield carried a huge amount of points this week. The only nit to pick from that quartet of wins was the lack of bulk from Hill despite the great points per IP.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: May 12–14

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

May 12–14
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
DET .292 93 SEA .301
MIA .296 93 CIN .308
WSN .301 104 NYM .315
BAL .331 95 PIT .328
NYY .305 102 TBR .371
TOR .332 105 ATL .349
CLE .280 101 LAA .334
BOS .345 100 STL .324
MIN .304 96 CHC .331
CHW .304 108 HOU .299
MIL .314 103 KCR .302
COL .312 111 PHI .328
ARI .336 94 SFG .327
OAK .304 91 TEX .343
LAD .334 107 SDP .316

Teams with favorable schedules include the Angels, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Marlins, Rangers, Reds, and Tigers.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Guardians, Nationals, Padres, Phillies, Rockies, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starters
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Ryne Nelson 46.80% SFG .327 4.77 7.6% 1.25
Matthew Boyd 30.77% SEA .301 4.72 12.7% 1.47
Marco Gonzales 11.22% DET .292 4.20 9.2% 0.88
J.P. France 4.49% CHW .304 2.55 20.0% 0.00
Adrian Houser 3.53% KCR .302 1.85 19.0% 0.00

Not a lot of recommendations for this weekend. There are a pair of starters in the Mariners-Tigers series who you could go after since both of those offenses have been sputtering and they’re playing in the cavernous Comerica Park. All three of the Tigers starters scheduled to start in the series fall below the 50% ownership threshold, but Matthew Boyd is clearly the best of the bunch. On Seattle’s side, Marco Gonzales has been solid if unspectacular this year. His last start was a gutty six inning outing against the Astros where he allowed three runs on six hits while striking out three.

Both J.P. France and Adrian Houser have made just a single start this year, though both draw a pretty nice matchup for their second start. France is a little bit more of a risky play since he’s pitching in the home run friendly Guaranteed Rate Field, but he looked solid against the Mariners in his major league debut over the weekend. Houser was activated off the IL on Sunday and made his first start against the Giants, throwing 4.2 innings with just two runs allowed and five strikeouts.

Despite allowing 13 runs across his last three starts, Ryne Nelson’s FIP during that stretch has been just 3.57 with a 4.23 xFIP. Six of those runs came in a start in Coors Field which is where the only home run he’s allowed over the last few weeks was hit. He’s lined up to start against the Giants at home over the weekend. San Francisco’s offense has been hitting pretty well, but Nelson’s home park is pretty home run friendly.

Hot starters:

Strong Starters, Last Two Weeks
Pitcher IP FIP K-BB% HR/9 P/IP
Kyle Freeland 18 4.13 12.3% 1.00 4.53
Patrick Corbin 18.1 4.44 14.9% 1.47 4.01

I just highlighted a different Rockies starter in my last column and I’m going back to that well again. Kyle Freeland has been pretty decent over his last three starts including a seven inning outing yesterday against the Pirates. He was fantastic against the Brewers at home last week, throwing five shutout innings with five strikeouts and just three hits. The same warnings apply here as they did for Ryan Feltner: avoid starts at home while playing the matchups on the road.

Say it ain’t so! It looks like Patrick Corbin might be showing some signs of life after three miserable seasons. He pitched a solid seven innings against the Cubs last week, allowing just two runs on three hits while striking out six. He’s scheduled to start against the Giants in San Francisco today. We’ll see if he can continue building off that start against Chicago.

Recap: May 5–7

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Brad Keller 4.1 -31.1 -7.19
Kyle Muller 5.1 -0.6 -0.12
Ken Waldichuk 5 -9.2 -1.84
Joey Lucchesi 4 5.9 1.48
Michael Lorenzen N/A
Josh Fleming 5 -21.8 -4.36
Yonny Chirinos 5.1 19.7 3.69
Total 29 -37.2 -1.28
Season Total 364.2 1075.7 2.95

Ouch. Nothing good came from those recommendations last weekend. In the Brad Keller-Kyle Muller matchup on Friday, the A’s and Royals wound up scoring 20 runs combined. The only start that came close to being a win was Yonny Chirinos’s start against the Yankees, though he walked four and didn’t strike out a single batter in that outing.