Jason Hammel is on the mound today, so let’s chat about him! Hammel was signed by the Cubs in the offseason. Undoubtedly, the Cubs’ plan was to have him perform well, and then be flipped for future assets. So far, so good.

Hammel’s having a career year – the first three columns are all career bests; the fourth is second only to his 2012 campaign. His K-BB%, perhaps the best in season predictor of future success, is due to both an increase in strikeouts and a decrease in free passes. We love it when a pitcher improves their strikeout or walk rate, but when they improve both? That’s the dream.

His run prevention, so far, has outperformed peripherals a little bit; undoubtedly because he’s sporting a career low HR/FB rate. Regression is accounted for and baked into his xFIP-, which is still rather good. The worst thing we can say about Hammel’s performance so far is: his ERA could easily be around 3.50.

Jeff Samardzija gets all of the trade headlines in the Windy City. That’s fine. He’s phenomenal in his own right, but perhaps it’s time we pay a little more attention to Hammel. Samardzija will garner a larger prospect package for the Cubs – due to multiple reasons – but the team that acquires Hammel is likely acquiring one hell of an upgrade for their stretch run.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s hard to put into words how excited I am was (note below) for tonight’s Cleveland-Kansas City match-up. In case you didn’t know, Corey Kluber and Yordano Ventura (thank you, Based God, for sparing his elbow for now) are squaring off tonight. Kluber’s 2014 dominance isn’t a secret. Ventura’s prowess and potential is well known thanks to his triple digit heat. But let’s get some numbers involved.

There’s a ton of sexiness in that chart. Obviously, Kluber’s been the better pitcher – only Felix Hernandez has been better in 2014. His peripherals have been impressive for quite some time, but so far, his run prevention stats have caught up as well. Despite the Indians’ terrible defense, he’s still rocking a sub 3.30 ERA. Rather impressive.

Ventura might lack results at this point, but he’s one of the most aesthetically pleasing pitchers in the game. We all know about his fastball, which has averaged a tick over 96 mph to this point. His change-up, however, seems to be overlooked a little. According to pitchf/x, 14.4% of the pitches he’s thrown thus far has been a change-up, and they’ve averaged 86.2 mph – roughly a 10 mph difference. That difference in mph, combined with the pitch’s movement, has lead to a swSTR of 15.3%.

Edit: Thanks to the rain, Jason Vargas was pushed back until tonight. I’m leaving the chart and notes because Ventura is awesome, and Kluber is still pitching. Thanks for nothing, weather. 

Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t have much for a cool intro today. I’ve spent most of my time the past day and a half reading scouting reports of draft picks. Put it this way, I’ve spent way too much time on YouTube watching footage of batting practice, especially considering I have no idea what in the hell I’m looking for. Feel free to ask me questions, though. I’ll make up something that’ll make you feel good about someone who has a pretty solid chance of letting you down in the future!

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s talk a little about league settings today. I’m assuming a few of you still play in standard leagues. Different settings have begun to take hold, though. For the first time in my life, I’m not in one league that uses batting average or wins.

I’m in five leagues this year; one keeper and one dynasty. Three of the leagues have the following settings: R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP x QS, ERA, WHIP, K, SV+HLD. One other league has the same settings, except SLG replaces HR and SV replaces SV+HLD. And my final league, here on Fangraphs (shameless company plug), is points based; Fangraphs points, specifically.

I like portions of each league. I love OBP – sure would be nice if ESPN offered wOBA, though – and I like giving credit for saves and holds, because as we all know, sometimes the “closer” isn’t anywhere near the best reliever on the team.

So far, my favorite setup is the Ottoneu league. Admittedly, it took a little while to come around to it. Some plays that have positive value in other leagues (RBI, etc.) don’t do anything for you in Ottoneu. I’ve come around quickly, though. It’s isolation at it’s finest. Player hits a double? Gets credit for it. Teammates don’t drive him in, though? No harm done. The league’s settings don’t punish players for having weaker teammates. Nor do they help out mediocre hitters who happen to be in the right place at the right time – cough, 2013 Brandon Phillips, cough.

So, what are your favorite settings?

Read the rest of this entry »

Usually I don’t talk about myself very much. At least I try not to, mostly because I’m a shy person. I’m going to today, just for a second, though. I’m assuming sabermetrics – Fangraphs, specifically – changed the way you played fantasy. The first few years I played fantasy baseball, I knew nothing about sabermetrics. That changed three years ago. I stumbled onto Fangraphs, thanks to Twitter. I was quickly enamored with the numbers and principles behind them; learning about FIP, BABiP, small sample sizes, and their nuances forced me to do a complete 180 degree turn in the way I thought about the game.

For example, Pablo Sandoval was dreadful in April. In earlier years, I might have sold low. I would have essentially thrown out his entire body of work for a minuscule sample. Learning more about the game changed me. FIP is a go-to statistic for me now. Without it, or Carson, I would not have known a thing about Corey Kluber last year. I would have seen his ERA around draft time this year and said: “Oh cool, another mediocre pitcher.” Once again, I would have been pissed for either missing out on him, or worse, dropping him.

You’re on Fangraphs, so I’m preaching to the choir here, but learning something new is awesome. In this case, learning something new made a hobby into something even more fun.

If you’re wondering where this came from, I was in my cube at work yesterday thinking about the first year I played fantasy baseball – a salary cap league on Sporting News. It was 2003, Runelvys Hernandez posted a 1.58 ERA during the first month of the season. He struggled in May, got hurt, and his owner dropped him. I thought: “Man, what an idiot,” – I was 12, so cut me some slack. (sorry if that makes you feel old) – and picked him up in preparation for his return. In his final eight starts, he posted an 8.15 ERA while striking out 10.9% of the batters he faced. That guy knew more than me. He knew he didn’t miss bats, among other things. Damn shame it took me so long to figure out that it wasn’t hard to look for signs of a fluke. And granted, now that I’m older, with a career, fantasy takes up a little more of my time because I can’t sit at home and play Final Fantasy VII all summer or play wiffle ball with friends like I did was I was 12. Fantasy is an escape. And thanks to Fangraphs, I’m a little better at fake life.

Read the rest of this entry »

In the comments I’ve had some interesting interactions lately. Because of that I wanted to address a few things here, in case some of you don’t make it down to the comment section.

First off, thanks for reading these. It feels like the pieces are getting bigger responses.

Secondly, when I make picks I’m doing my best to give you value options. For example, the Blue Jays’ offense is ruthless. You know that, and you definitely don’t need me to recommend them four days a week because you’re more than smart enough to do that on your own. I usually pick a stack against one of the pitchers that has a lot of green cells in the chart I embed. I alluded to it last week, but you could probably pretty easily throw together a stack, or play match-ups, against any of the pitchers I mention in the blurbs under the chart.

Lastly, I was asked why I recommend a three man stack instead of a four man option. My response and, later, my further explanation is below:

It’s honestly kind of just personal preference. Most of the time when I enter GPPs I use multiple three man stacks. This is a good read (http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/daily-fantasy-strategy-march-31-for-draftstreet/). I’ve just usually had better a little better luck with a three man stack. Sorry if that seems like a cop-out. I may start including a fourth option for you guys though now that you’ve mentioned it.

…

Yeah, I should have worded that a little better. Usually I have two three man stacks against two of the five or so pitchers I highlight in the blurb. I usually then try to find two upside plays on the same team – around $5,000-$6,000 or so a piece. Then I just fill out the last position with a cheaper guy who happens to have a nice matchup. It rarely works out to where I find three stacks I like, but when it does the results have been nice.

I mostly try to save my money on pitching. Usually I can find two to three options for under $15,000 that I’m comfortable with. Sometimes I get burned on that, but at their price I’m not expecting them to carry me anyways.

I hope that helps explain the process/reasoning I undertake before making my picks. And hopefully we have a little better luck this week. Only Thursday was kind to me last week.

Read the rest of this entry »

The conventional wisdom says that your starting pitcher needs three pitches. Fastball, breaking ball, change-up is best, but three pitches by hook or crook. If they don’t, they’ll have platoon splits and a tough time getting through the lineup. That’s largely true, of course, but there are always exceptions.

Let’s see what we can learn from the exceptions.

Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve written about Scott Kazmir a little in my daily columns before. Mike Podhorzer wrote about him – selling him high, specifically – this week. I’m a little bit more of a believer than Mike, I believe, but I can definitely see his side of it. If someone is willing to give you an ace/# 2 like package, I might have a hard time turning it down. I’m less worried about his ability to get whiffs than Mike is, though. Nearly all of my concerns are based on his ability to last 180 or more innings.

Kazmir has currently thrown 68.2 innings – tied for the 29th most among starters (at this moment). He made it through 158 last year. In 2010, his last season in the bigs before his epic comeback, he threw 150 innings. Kazmir’s body hasn’t allowed him to throw more than 160 innings since 2007. In other words, Scott Kazmir hasn’t thrown more than 160 innings since Kanye West released Graduation – which is a great album. There is a song called Barry Bonds on it, after all.

It may seem like I’m being harsh on Kazmir, but I’m not trying to be. It’s just…2007, man! I want and need Kazmir to throw 200 innings this year. It doesn’t feel like his comeback has gotten enough attention despite the fact that it is an absolutely remarkable feat. I understand selling high on him, but as for me – someone who only owns him in one league, at a good price,  with a team with no glaring holes, and receiving light offers – I’m just going to ride him until he throws me off and leaves me in a ditch somewhere.

P.S. on The Show, my created pitcher has Kazmir’s mechanics, so I’m very dedicated in my devotion.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve reached the points of the season where we have a pretty good idea of where our teams stand. Things can still change, but for the most part you should have a pretty good idea of how good your current roster is.

With that in mind, join me in the comments below and let’s talk about our favorite players to own so far. Try to stay away from the usual suspects: Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, etc. I’ll kick this thing off.

I’m doing my first Ottoneu league this year – currently sitting in third place. Without a doubt my best value has been Brandon Moss. During our draft we took a fifteen minute break. When we returned it was my turn to nominate a player for bidding. I nominated Moss hoping to catch some people sleeping and because most of us had blown through a ton of our money. I’m guessing the entire league was still zoned out, because no one bid. Perhaps everyone was waiting on someone else to bid, or taking roster construction into play. Nonetheless, I ended up with a $1 Brandon Moss. Dividends.

In my other auction draft – 12 teams; 5×5 with OBP, QS, and S+HLD in replace of AVG, W, and SV – I have a $2 Christian Yelich. He was only that cheap because he was the 234th player nominated. So by that point, many of the owners had their lineups set or were running low on funds. Yelich has cooled off a little of late, but he’s already earned his keep. Oh, and it’s a keeper league. So if I decide to keep him he’ll only cost $6 next season; not bad what looks to be a player with a shot at a 20/20 season perhaps as early as this year.

Read the rest of this entry »

Usually I riff a little on pitching. There are two reasons behind that: I love pitching and I find it easier to analyze because the pitcher, for the most part, controls most of their fate. Sure defense plays a role, but I usually look at stats that take that into account in the first place.

If there was ever a pitcher that embodies “peripherals are more important at this stage of the season,” it’s Shelby Miller. If you focus on traditional stats, Miller hasn’t been that bad. He’s racked up six wins (!) and has a 3.18 ERA. As we know, that doesn’t tell the whole story. Miller’s been very, very lucky; not just with babip, either. Miller’s wiggled out of trouble a ton, evidenced by his 87.7% LOB%. His strikeout rate has plummeted ~5% while his walk rate has increased ~5%. All in all, Miller’s k-bb% (perhaps my favorite metric) has decreased nearly 10 percentage points. Not good.

Surely you, the astute Fangraphs reader, have known for a little while that Miller’s pitching on borrowed time. If you haven’t shopped him yet, do it quickly.

Read the rest of this entry »