Agenda
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Agenda
FanDuel has unleashed the World Fantasy Baseball Championship; a week-long, $5,000,000 celebration of Fantasy Baseball in Las Vegas! The WFBC has something for everyone, from the $250,000 single-entry championship, to the live $3,000,000 DFBC Final in Las Vegas.
Remember to use promocode FANGRAPHS to get your huge 100% deposit bonus up to $200. Click here to win your seat ticket.
Over the past two seasons (2013 – 2014), only nineteen qualified starters have posted a FIP lower than Lance Lynn’s 3.29. He’s been better than Gio Gonzalez, Kris Medlen, Doug Fister, and Homer Bailey, using FIP. I feel like most, if not, all of those men were/are viewed as better fantasy options coming into 2014. Maybe they were; in Medlen’s case, we’ll never know. I definitely had all of them ranked in front of Lynn, and I’ve been proven wrong.
My main reason for dropping Lynn in my rankings was his struggles versus left handed batters. Those concerns haven’t been abated, although, he has been better versus lefties this year: .345 career wOBA allowed versus .326 wOBA this season. His lack of a change-up still hurts, but .19 points of wOBA is nothing to scoff at. Granted, his career number still holds more weight, considering the larger sample. Still, though, progress is progress; this is the second year in a row that number has dropped, after all (was .366 in 2012).
Lynn’s season has been odd in the sense that he’s striking out fewer batters, while walking more. Yet, thanks to little BABiP and HR/FB help – more sinkers help, I’m sure; as has the Cardinals defense – he’s finally beating his peripherals for once. This game’s weird.
Lynn draws the Rays today, who, despite their struggles, have been better than average versus right handed pitching. Read the rest of this entry »
So, last weekend we got our first taste of DraftKings. The results – mine, anyways – were kind of meh. Anthony Rizzo (Friday) and Paul Goldschmidt (Saturday) were easily my best picks of the weekend, combining to hit three home runs while reaching base in seven of their eleven plate appearances.
The pitchers I recommended struggled, especially Dallas Keuchel. I wasn’t able to watch his start, but he must not have been fooling anyone, considering he surrendered twelve hits in 5 innings; it’s a miracle he only gave up three earned runs. The night before, Bartolo Colon was rolling along (not a fat joke) nicely until the fifth inning, in which he surrendered four runs and any chance I had at placing highly in my contests.
All in all, it was a decent weekend. The DraftKings app came in handy, because I spent the majority of my weekend on an interstate. Read the rest of this entry »
Saturday! The All-Star break took the game away from us for four days this year, but thankfully we’re on a full slate today. Honestly, why was there no baseball on Thursday? This was such a boring week for sports. What the hell am I supposed to do at work if there isn’t any breaking news to read? Anyways, I’m using hotel wifi (which sucks), so let’s do this.
Probables Chart
Hector Noesi and his terrible ratios are on the bump today. His match-up isn’t terrible, but Houston does have some power hitters. Travis Wood is better than Noesi, but he’s gotten crushed by right handed batters this season, making Paul Goldschmidt juicy; perhaps Aaron Hill, too. Hell, I don’t mind Martin Prado ($4,000) either.
Last night, David Phelps held the Reds’ lineup in check pretty well. Brandon McCarthy will have to do so tonight. Personally, I root for McCarthy. It’s difficult to ignore his home run struggles, though, considering his new home.
Lastly, I’m all for targeting the following pitchers, on top of the ones mentioned above: Colby Lewis (Toronto is depleted, but Lewis has been wretched lately), Brett Anderson (righties only; huge fan of him as well, but his results this season haven’t been swell), and Wei-Yin Chen (RHB).
There is some iffy weather today, but as usual, that’s more of a worry for pitchers than hitters. I still recommended one pitcher below, despite questionable weather, because I like his match-up so much.
The Daily Five
Todd Frazier – $4,500
Frazier’s power has seemingly blossomed this season. He’ll have Yankee Stadium’s short porch tonight. Devin Mesoraco ($4,200) is also very, very appealing. Choosing catchers on Saturdays can sometime be iffy, but considering the break everyone just had, he should definitely be in the lineup.
Alex Wood – $7,400
The Phillies’ offense is mediocre versus left handed pitching: they’re 19th in wOBA. Wood’s ability to mix strikeouts with groundballs is ideal. Hopefully he’s doing a little of both tonight. (weather pending; hopefully they’re able to get the game in)
Corey Dickerson – $4,400
Charlie Morton has pitched pretty well this season, but Dickerson’s upside is rather large. He’s been quite a boon for many teams, and considering his power/speed potential, he’s nicely priced.
Paul Goldschmidt – $5,700
He’s pricey, but I absolutely love his match-up.
Dallas Keuchel – $6,500
I usually don’t recommend two pitchers, but I couldn’t resist today. The White Sox, as a team, have a .296 wOBA versus left handed pitching. *crosses fingers that Jose Abreu doesn’t hit a bunch of dingers*
This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of DraftKings. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.
In case you haven’t heard, Draftstreet was purchased by Draft Kings. Therefore, all things formerly Draftstreet are now Draft Kings; you can transfer your account easily using this link.
It goes without saying that this column will change now; it’ll be used to recommendations for Draft Kings now. If you’ve never played on Draft Kings, it’ll be a learning experience for a little bit. And I’ll be learning with you. I’ve dabbled with the site before, especially during hockey and basketball season, but used Draftstreet mostly for baseball considering I was writing about it. Read the rest of this entry »
Today, we’ll gather around the TV and watch the All-Star game. Well, most of us will; some don’t care about the event very much. Either way, we’re without baseball for a few days after tonight’s ultimately meaningless home field deciding contest. So let’s take a look back at the Draftstreet All-Stars of the first half. I use wOBA more than anything else when choosing my daily lineup, mostly due to seeing people much better at daily than myself using it. Blake has long used it as a proxy for good daily production. In theory, it should work well. And as you’ll below, it works well in practice, too. Read the rest of this entry »
Here for Blake today. Instead of talking about a specific player let’s talk about fandom, mine in particular.
I haven’t watched my favorite team [the Atlanta Braves] play a game in over two months. I’ve watched maybe five or six innings total of Braves’ baseball. It wasn’t a conscious decision. It just happened. Sure, I joked about not watching until B.J. Upton no longer hit leadoff, but I kinda just stopped watching because I wasn’t enjoying it any longer.
Wade Miley was atrocious to begin the season, posting a 4.79 FIP in April. He turned it around in May, posting a 3.66 FIP. Then, the wheels fell off again, as he pitched his way to a 4.77 FIP in June. So far, he’s been very good in two July starts, seeing his FIP slot in at 0.77. Let’s go back to June, though; perhaps the wheels didn’t actually fall off completely.
Miley’s poor April and June numbers have one main driver: home runs. He allowed seven in each month. Considering Miley’s never been a strikeout artist, his HR/FB rate has kind of always told the story. In 2012, he didn’t allow many. He did in 2013 (along with more walks), and his numbers suffered. This year, he’s allowed homers at an even higher rate, and his numbers have fallen further, but something else has changed: his strikeout rate has shot up.
And, I’m back. After a small vacation, in which I recharged my batteries, hiked, and didn’t play any fantasy, it’s back to normal life. Thankfully, Blake and Brett held the fort down for me, otherwise I guess it wouldn’t have completely been a “vacation.”
While I didn’t play any fantasy, I did manage to get to the ballpark in Denver for one game. Jair Jurrjens pitched in it. Predictably, he was hit very hard. Considering I live in Atlanta, it was nice to see an old friend. Not much has changed for him. Breaking: The Earth keeps spinning and 88 mph over the middle keeps leaving the yard :(.
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Probables Chart
