The Early Season Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ian Kahn

Strategy Section

• How to know when to be interested in players with hot starts.
  • Garrett Whitlock
  • Nestor Cortes
• How to know when to sit or drop players with cold starts.
  • Joey Votto
  • Charlie Blackmon
  • Joey Gallo
• How much to bid on FAAB in the early part of the season.
• Trading in the early season
  • Do you / how to trade struggling superstars?
    • Gerrit Cole
    • Mookie Betts
  • Do you / how to trade surging players?
    • Cody Bellinger

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Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

This early main slate is a really difficult one to not play chalk pitching. There are five guys with double-digit per-nine strikeout stuff, but three have really samples and two of them are in bad strikeout parks. I’m nitpicking here because the two SP1s are just so obvious that excluding Joe Ryan in a bad strikeout matchup, Tyler Wells and his awful command, and Tanner Houck and his awful matchup feels pretty easy.

EDIT — The cheap Wells is rising on my list because no one is going to play him. I predicted he’d be in the 20-25% ownership range because of the strikeouts and the great matchup, but he could go single digits. He’s become a poor man’s Cease on this slate.

THE SP1s: Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease

Kevin Gausman is the clear ace of the slate. His SIERA since 2021 is the lowest on the slate and his strikeout matchup is sneaky strong. The Red Sox active roster only has a 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since 2020 and their strikeout rate has gone up to 23.5%. Add in his 10.70 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, and 0.89 HR/9 with his ridiculously cheap salary on DK and we’re losing money by not going overweight on him. Sometimes chalk is underowned, too, and Gausman is one of those spots today.

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If a lifetime of watching baseball has taught me anything, it’s that you only need about a week to predict how the rest of the season will go. It’s science. Read the rest of this entry »

The Predictions Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Scott Pianowski

Strategy Section

• 2022 Draft Season Wrap-Up
  • Younger players over boring vets
  • Reliable pitching
  • It’s less about the player information advantages, and more about the game play.
• What do you look for / watch closely for early in the season?
  • Roles
  • Manegerial tendencies
    • Lineup
    • Bullpen
    • Stolen base attempts
    • Platoon splits
  • Pitchers
    • Velocity
    • Walk and strikeout rates
    • Don’t look at pitch count
  • Which baseball is the MLB using?
• How quickly can you trust the hot/cold player starts?
  • Regression – Underperforming players vs overperforming players in terms of correction time
    • Kyle Hendricks
    • Noah Syndergaard
    • Yu Darvish
    • Nick Martinez

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We’ve got lots of guys to talk about, so let’s get right to it. Check out the start of last week’s article for an explanation of what we’re doing and how we do it. The pitchers are listed in descending order of likelihood that they’ll do what the stats we’re looking at suggest they’ll do. In other words, we list unlucky guys in ascending order of our pessimism about our optimism, and lucky guys in ascending order of our pessimism about our pessimism.

UNLUCKY STARTING PITCHERS

Kyle Freeland: Hesitant as we are to recommend, and for that matter to draft, Colorado pitchers, we are making an exception for Freeland, whose 2018 was unquestionably the best single season ever by a Rockies pitcher. The only thing that went wrong for him last year was that he was suddenly unable to get left-handed hitters out. Since he’s never had that problem before, we envision that he won’t have it again, at least not this season.

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The Pre-Season Injury Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Injury Update – Reuven gives us the injury updates.

Hitters

• Ronald Acuna Jr.
• Fernando Tatis Jr.
• Evan White
• Julio Rodriguez
• Brandon Belt
• Adley Rutschman
• Odubel Herrera
• Andrew Vaughn
• Luis Urias
• Chris Taylor
• Cavan Biggio
• Greg Bird
• Carter Kieboom
  • Maikel Franco
• Evan Longoria
  • Wilmer Flores
• Nick Ahmed
  • Josh Rojas
• Yermin Mercedes
• Dominic Smith
  • Mets lineup & defensive allignment

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For the first time in my fantasy baseball career, I think I’m going to employ the pocket aces strategy. You can learn more about the strategy by reading Mike Carter’s synopsis on SP Streamer. The idea, however, is simple; take two starting pitchers with your first two picks. In my home league (10-team, 5×5, ESPN, Roto) I’ve been given the 10 spot to draft in a snake draft format. I’ve never employed this strategy because, like many others, the volatility of pitching scares me. The injury risk scares me. I usually want good hitters who steal bases early. But this year I’m going to try something new. Plus, I’m fairly certain I’ll be able to get Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. Remember what I said about injury risk? I’m throwing caution to the wind. If something changes and my league drafts differently than I expect, my strategy may change. But, one look at the visual below makes me want to get two pitchers with my first two picks.

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The Mock Draft Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Chris Welsh

Tout Wars Head to Head Recap

Strategy Section

• General Draft Strategy
  • Push up saves/steals/starters? What is the right time to roster them?
• KDS Selection for 2022
• What is the best time to reach for your “favorites,” “targets” or “upside players?
• Should you draft prospects in redraft leagues?

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The last two weeks, I had two auctions with the same problem – a player (or players) I wanted going for way more than I anticipated – but ended with very different results. In both cases, how I prepped for the auction played a big role in how I reacted to the market, adjusted, and eventually built teams I think are ready for the season.

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Now it’s time for a Birchwood Brothers tradition: identifying players who, their stats suggest, have either been lucky, and thus ought to be eschewed, or unlucky, and thus ought to be swallowed. We are no-trade-league guys. Some years ago, though, we were sucked into the black hole of a league that not only permitted but virtually demanded trading, and were fortunate to survive our resulting passage through the fabric of space-time. In that league, we were offered a mid-season trade for a pitcher that looked pretty good on its surface. But we wondered whether this guy’s success was significantly a function of his good fortune, and came up with a down-and-dirty way of finding out. It worked in that particular case—the guy had been lucky, but not long after we turned the trade down, both his luck and his pitching went bad. And the following preseason, we tried the same thing with the previous year’s full-season stats, and in the fullness of time found that it worked pretty well there too.

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