Earlier today, we examined the man who anchors the keystone for the Angels, Howie Kendrick. As an awfully liberal swinger, the 25 year-old is an interesting study. A reader brought up what I find to be a fascinating bit of information regarding Kendrick’s BABIP splits: he has a significantly higher BABIP on flyballs than the average hitter.

Ordinarily, BABIP tends to be higher on groundballs than it is for flyballs. Take a look at the American League batting splits over the past three seasons, via Baseball-Reference:

2006
Groundballs: .247/.247/.271
Flyballs: .232/.226/.618

2007
Groundballs: .246/.246/.266
Flyballs: .218/.212/.572

2008
Groundballs: .243/.243/.263
Flyballs: .218/.212/.565

Nothing is especially surprising here- BABIP is higher on grounders than it is for flyballs, but flyballs do a lot more damage (those grounders go for singles while the flyballs that aren’t caught are almost always a double or a triple).

Now, take a look at Kendrick’s career marks:

GB: .261/.261/.280
FB: .333/.323/.658

Granted, Kendrick has a total of 997 career plate appearances, so we’re dealing with a small amount of data here. But his flyball BABIP is way, way above that of the AL average. What could be causing that?

Perhaps the answer lies in how a ball put into play is classified. Fellow Fan Graphs author Brian Cartwright wrote a very interesting piece on line drive rates by stadium, noting that there is a wide disparity between parks in terms of how often a ball put in play is classified as a line drive. From Brian’s article, here’s the chart (ballpark name and line drive factor in bold):

PARK_NAME First Last PAw LDf
Veterans Stadium 2003 2003 4768 1.23
Ballpark Arlington 2003 2008 26850 1.18
Tokyo Dome 2004 2008 283 1.13
Great American 2003 2008 28827 1.11
Coors Field 2003 2008 29158 1.10
Busch Stadium III 2006 2008 13967 1.09
Kauffman Stadium 2003 2008 27530 1.09
Nationals Park 2008 2008 4790 1.09
Rogers Centre 2003 2008 27513 1.08
Phone Co Park 2003 2008 29439 1.07
Stade Olympique 2003 2004 7684 1.07
Busch Stadium II 2003 2005 14280 1.06
Tropicana Field 2003 2008 27830 1.06
Comerica Park 2003 2008 28008 1.06
Citizens Bank Park 2004 2008 24640 1.06
Miller Park 2003 2008 29354 1.06
RFK Stadium 2005 2007 14885 1.05
Oakland Coliseum 2003 2008 26719 1.03
Safeco Field 2003 2008 26683 1.01
Comiskey Park II 2003 2008 28644 1.00
Yankee Stadium 2003 2008 28722 1.00
Dolphin Stadium 2003 2008 29849 1.00
Jacobs Field 2003 2008 28136 0.99
Camden Yards 2003 2008 29103 0.99
P.N.C. Park 2003 2008 27652 0.98
Bank One Ballpark 2003 2008 28810 0.98
Hiram Bithorn 2003 2004 2598 0.98
Jack Murphy 2003 2003 4943 0.98
Dodger Stadium 2003 2008 29555 0.98
Wrigley Field 2003 2008 28663 0.96
PetCo Park 2004 2008 24432 0.95
Shea Stadium 2003 2008 29299 0.92
Fenway Park 2003 2008 28311 0.86
Turner Field 2003 2008 29016 0.86
Anaheim Stadium 2003 2008 26490 0.86
Minute Maid Park 2003 2008 28271 0.82
Metrodome 2003 2008 28048 0.80

As you can see, Anaheim has a Line Drive Factor of 0.86- a batted ball is 14% less likely to be coded as a line drive in Angel Stadium. Why that is, I can’t say with any degree of certainty. A confluence of factors, such as scoring bias, ballpark environment and talent level of the batter play a part.

Perhaps the reason why Kendrick has such a high BABIP on flyballs (and a relatively low line drive percentage) is that should-be line-drives are being classified as flyballs instead, thus inflating his flyball BABIP and depressing his line drive rate. Overall, Angels hitters posted a .226 BABIP on flyballs in 2008, above the aforementioned .218 AL average. This is not a one-year trend, either: LAA hitters had a .228 BABIP on flyballs in 2007 (.218 AL average) and a .253 BABIP on flyballs in 2006 (.232 AL average).

What does this all mean? Well, it could have an effect on how we evaluate Angels hitters, and hitters in ballparks where a significantly lower or higher amount of line drives are classified. It has become a rather common practice to estimate a player’s expected BABIP by using primarily his line drive rate. Intuitively, it makes sense: a line drive is by far the most likely batted ball to fall for a hit (.730 BABIP in the AL in 2008).

However, given the great fluctuations in how often line drives are coded, we have to ask ourselves how much predictive value that measure really has. Kendrick has a career 17 LD%- how much of that is due to his propensity to hit line drives, and how much of that is due to a decision made by the scorer (which, in the case of Angels hitters, would mean fewer line drives coded and a lower LD%)? Line drive percentage is certainly worth looking at, but at the end of the day, it’s a subjective measure determined by the official scorer.

Spring training statistics just aren’t that helpful. Between the small sample sizes and the varying levels of competition (some pitchers get Albert Pujols; others get Brad Eldred), it’s extremely difficult to decipher what is meaningful and what is just plain noise. The leader boards this time of the year may make one feel as though they have gone down the rabbit hole into Wonderland. As such, it’s best not to get caught up in particularly hot or cold performances. Here are just a few examples of why you should view spring training numbers with a highly skeptical eye:

Brett Gardner: 3 home runs, .875 SLG% in 24 AB
Career minor league SLG%: .385
Career minor league HR: 9 in 1,456 AB

Rajai Davis: .864 SLG%
Career minor league SLG%:.407
Career major league SLG%: .354

Glen Perkins: 12 IP, 1.50 ERA
Career major league FIP: 4.87

Aaron Cook: 15 K’s in 14 IP
Career major league K/9: 3.58

There will be plenty of players labeled poised for a breakout season based on 100 at-bats or 30 strong innings in March, but it’s prudent not to place any great emphasis on, say, Gardner’s ability to take Brad Mills deep or Cook’s penchant for striking out young prospects and Quad-A hitters. Don’t ignore spring training entirely. But, if you’re making important decisions based on a guy’s numbers in the Grapefruit League, you’re more than likely going to be disappointed.

In 2009, the American League East figures to host a battle of potent opposing forces not seen since Red Sox fan Stephen King authored The Stand. The Sox, Yankees and Rays are arguably the three most complete teams in baseball, yet at least one of the clubs will be bitterly viewing October baseball from the recliner instead of experiencing it firsthand. With the gap between the trio extremely slim (BP’s PECOTA system has all three within 92-98 victories), one big performance could make all the difference. From Boston’s perspective, perhaps no one player will be more closely scrutinized than “Big Papi”, David Ortiz.

Ortiz’s career path hasn’t exactly been conventional. Signed by the Seattle Mariners back in 1992, the Dominican Republic native was shipped to Minnesota as the PTBNL in a September 1996 trade for third baseman Dave Hollins. Ortiz never cracked 500 PA’s in a season for the Twins, generally posting wOBA’s in the .350 range. Respectable for a DH, but the Twinkies decided to cut bait after a 2002 season in which the 26 year-old batted .272/.339/.500 in 466 PA. Ortiz’s tenure in Minnesota is remembered more for injuries (wirst and knee) and unfulfilled promise than anything else.

The rest, of course, is history. Signed for just one year and $1.25 million prior to the 2003 season, Ortiz exploded in Boston. From 2003-2007, “Big Papi” posted continually improved his performance, becoming a devastating hitter. His wOBA’s over that period: .400, .408, .418 and .448. He slugged .600+ from ’04 to ’07 (his .592 mark in ’03 just missed), and his Win Values were truly impressive: 3.4 in ’03, 4.7 in ’04, 5.8 in ’05, 5.9 in ’06 and 6.7 in ’07.

In 2008, however, Ortiz’s performance went from that of a super hero to the realm of mere mortals. During his age 32 season, the 6-4, 230 pound slugger dealt with a torn tendon sheath in his left wrist. Wrist injuries often sap a player’s bat control and power, and that appeared to be the case with Ortiz. He turned in a merely good .264/.369/.507 line with a .372 wOBA. His Isolated Power, which ranged from .290 to .349 during his 2003-2007 tear, checked in at .243.

One of the more interesting questions of the spring is to what extent Ortiz will bounce back: will a healed Papi resume posting the monstrous offensive levels we came to expect over his first 5 years in Boston, or has decline started to set in? Ortiz turned 33 in November, and possesses the kind of talent set that often garners the pejorative “old player’s skills” label. His wrist is said to be sound, but he is now dealing with a shoulder issue as well.

For 2009, CHONE projects Ortiz to basically split the difference between his 2003-2007 mashing and his “down” 2008 campaign, with a .284/.401/.555 line and a .413 wOBA. PECOTA is less sanguine, forecasting what amounts to a repeat ’08 performance with a .269/.375/.503 triple-slash line.

Ortiz’s most comparable players via Baseball-Reference are a mixed bag: number one comp Jason Giambi was still a productive hitter last season at 37, though he has thrown in a couple of down years (’04 and ’07) and has dealt with injuries. Carlos Delgado had many writing him off early last season, but he rebounded to turn in a 127 OPS+ in his age 36 season. Papi’s number three comp is more nefarious: Mo Vaughn, a former Sox slugger, whose career was essentially over by age 34. The list also includes Richie Sexson, whose bat shriveled up at 32. Not that these comparables offer some definitive insight into Ortiz’s future, but they are fun to consider.

The most prudent course of action for fantasy owners to take regarding David Ortiz would be to expect something closer to last year’s milder line than his leviathan .400 OBP/.600+ SLG peak seasons. Perhaps Ortiz will return to his 2003-2007 style beat down of AL hurlers. However, as a 33 year-old with some emerging health issues, Papi seems more likely to be good as opposed to the unstoppable force that teamed with Manny Ramirez to give pitchers nightmares.

What do you guys think? Will Big Papi make a triumphant return, or is Medium Papi here to stay?

The Washington Nationals’ roster is, to say the least, jumbled at the moment. Between first base and the outfield, the Nats have a consortium of promising youngsters, former and failed top prospects, injury risks and overlapping parts. Short of petitioning the league for an extra outfield spot or two, Washington is going to need to sort out how to deploy newly-signed Adam Dunn (1B? OF?), Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Josh Willingham, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena and Willie Harris, and will also need to figure out if the brittle $10.5M combo of Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young can provide any value. Dave Cameron summed up GM Jim Bowden’s circus-like roster construction best:

“If Bowden was a general contractor, he’d build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof.”

According to Washington’s official depth chart as well as this MLB.com story, Dunn will be taking over duties at first base for the Nats. While the 29 year-old is allergic to all things leather (-12.6 career UZR/150 in the OF, -11.3 at 1B), shifting him to a corner infield spot is the lesser of two evils in the non-DH league.

There’s not much to say about Dunn’s offensive profile: while not aesthetically pleasing to those who fancy batting average, the former Red and D-Back has tremendous plate discipline and a ton of raw power. He has posted wOBA’s of .365, .399 and .383 over the past three seasons. Granted, those wOBA figures aren’t park-adjusted, but Dunn’s offensive production is still very impressive once you strip away the benefit derived from Great American Ballpark and his short time at Chase Field. Dunn’s park-adjusted batting runs above average over the 2006-2008 period: 17.9, 34.5 and 27.4.

The slugger who has eerily posted exactly 40 home runs each of the past four seasons will now reside in Nationals Park. We have only one year of data for the new stadium, so making any sweeping conclusions about the offensive environment of the park would be fruitless. It played as a slight hitter’s venue overall in 2008, though it slightly suppressed homers. Odds are, Dunn’s production will slip to some extent without GABP (128 HR park factor from ’06-08), but the park adjusted runs show that he’s still a very productive batsman.

If Dunn will be settling in as the everyday first baseman, then that leaves Nick Johnson and his partner is medical commiseration, Dmitri Young, without a place to play.

In case you have forgotten (perfectly understandable, considering he missed all of ’07 and accumulated just 147 PA last year), Johnson is a wonderful offensive player when he’s healthy. With a career .370 wOBA and a near-.400 OBP, “Nick the Stick” could be a fantasy beast in a utopian society where world hunger, global warming and war have all come to an end. Unfortunately, Johnson remaining upright for a full season might be the least probable of those four scenarios: Nick’s 2007 season was wrecked by a broken leg, and his ’08 campaign was derailed by a tendon injury in his right wrist. He has taken 600 PA in one season exactly once in his career (2006). Owed $5.5M in ’09, Johnson could find himself on another roster come April. The Indians, Angels and Giants seem like possible fits.

If the gifted-but-breakable Johnson seems superfluous in Washington, then it’s doubly so for Dmitri Young. Young came to the Nats at perhaps the lowest point of his professional career, having played poorly for the Tigers while dealing with personal issues in 2006. The minor league free agent resuscitated his career in ’07, posting a .374 wOBA in 508 PA. However, GM Bowden got the warm fuzzies for Young and his other minor league scrap heap find, Ronnie Belliard, and signed them both to misguided, multi-year extensions. Young took just 180 trips to the plate in 2008, as complications from diabetes led to weight problems. Outrighted off the 40-man roster during the fall, Young is currently listed as a non-roster invitee. $5M commitment or not, his chances of making the club appear between slim and none.

Now that we’ve assessed the first base situation, it’s time to focus on the truly messy conundrum: the outfield. First, let’s get this out of the way: the two guys that positively, absolutely need to be playing on an everyday basis are Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge. While Washington has a lot of bodies for those three outfield spots, Dukes (24) and Milledge (24 in April) are two gifted youngsters who will be part of the next relevant Nationals team.

Dukes’ highly promising 2008 season has been chronicled here before: he posted a robust .382 wOBA and was worth nearly 3 wins to the Nats, despite taking just 334 PA. Dukes’ plate discipline, pop and athleticism figure to make him a well-rounded contributor. To do anything but give the 6-1, 240 pounder a full season’s worth of at-bats would be a masochistic act by the Nationals.

Milledge remains a fairly raw player, having drawn a walk just 6.8% of the time in 2008 while swinging at about 32% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. However, he managed to post a decent .268/.330/.402 line, chipping in 24 steals in 33 attempts. A highly-touted prospect with the Mets, Milledge posted a career .303/.376/.477 line in the minors and possesses the skill-set to turn into a big asset for Washington in time. As with Dukes, Milledge needs everyday playing time to smooth out the rough edges in his game. Platooning a guy like this would be detrimental to the club’s overall rebuilding effort.

If Milledge and Dukes occupy center and right field, respectively, then the left field gig will likely go to newly-imported Josh Willingham. “The Hammer”, picked up from Florida along with Scott Olsen earlier this offseason, has been remarkably consistent at the plate over the past three seasons. From 2006-2008, Willingham has posted wOBA’s of .364, .365 and .363. 30 years old tomorrow, Willingham has some deficiencies with the leather (-6 career UZR/150 in LF), but his patience and solid pop make him a worthwhile contributor.

So, Willingham, Milledge and Dukes are the likely starters. That still leaves a couple of former top prospects and a defensive whiz to fight for roster spots. Former Reds outfielders are sort of like erstwhile Cincy GM Jim Bowden’s “White Whale”: in addition to bringing in Dunn, Bowden had previously swung trades to acquire Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena.

Kearns has been a pretty valuable player at times in his career. A plus defender with good plate patience, Kearns racked up 4.1 Value Wins between the Reds and the Nats in 2006, and was worth 3.6 wins during an ’07 season where he supplemented mild offense with great D. However, the 28 year-old’s offensive production has essentially fallen off of a cliff over the past two years. Kearns was never a hulking slugger (career .175 ISO), but he posted a .145 ISO in ’07 and a paltry .099 ISO in 2008. He still worked the count well and was the victim of poor luck on balls in play in 2008 (.251 BABIP), but the lack of punch is disconcerting. Kearns was beat up last year, dealing with a stress fracture in his foot and an elbow injury. Perhaps I’m just stubborn, but I think that Kearns could be of some value if he ends up taking his $8M salary elsewhere. It wasn’t that long ago that he was a solid contributor.

It’s almost impossible to fathom, but Wily Mo Pena has been in professional baseball since the end of Bill Clinton’s second presidential term. The Mets originally tried to snag Pena out of out the Dominican Republic, but later voided the contract. The Yankees swooped in during 1999, handing him a hefty $2.3M bonus. Later shipped to the Reds for another ill-fated prospect, Drew Henson, Pena was in the majors with Cincinnati by the age of 20. Pena has since played sporadically for the Reds, Red Sox and Nats, and owns a career .253/.307/.447 line.

One has to wonder what sort of player the 6-3, 245 pounder might have developed into had he been given sufficient time to hone his craft in the minors. That’s not to say that the 27 year-old is a lost cause, but the song remains the same for Pena: feats of strength sprinkled in with few walks (career 6.3 BB%) and a whole lot of whiffs (32.7%). Pena is coming off of a wretched 2008 (.227 wOBA in 206 PA) and appears to be lost in the shuffle with Washington. His skill-set just doesn’t appear suited to part time or pinch-hit duties: with a long, convoluted swing and a propensity to chase (33.2 O-Swing% from ’05 to ’08), Wily Mo might not be that useful off the bench.

Would you believe me if I told you that Willie Harris was Washington’s most valuable position player in 2008? I swear, I’m not making it up: the light-hitting utility man somehow managed to pop 13 HR in 424 PA, good for a .340 wOBA. He also posted a +32 UZR/150 in about 700 innings the outfield. All together, Willie managed to be worth 3.2 Value Wins, surpassing Christian Guzman’s 3.0 (honest, that’s true too) and Dukes’ 2.9. Of course, there’s little reason to take Harris’ offensive outburst as more than a blip: the 30 year-old has a career .343 slugging percentage and .303 wOBA in the majors. With so many other bats ahead of him, Harris figures to use his outstanding glove (career 15.2 UZR/150 in the OF) to carve out a role as Josh Willingham’s legs in the late innings. For fantasy purposes, he’s a non-factor.

Every time I think about Washington’s outfield/first base glut, I keep on getting this image in my head. I mean, how are they all going to fit in there? Odds are, one or possibly two of the fellows listed above will be changing addresses sometime soon. With Dunn now in D.C., the Nats must not sacrifice the development of either Dukes or Milledge- those guys need to play.

Over the next week, I am going to run a series of “Position Battles” articles, examining some of the more intriguing fights for everyday jobs that will be taking place during spring training. So far, here’s the list:

-Cleveland’s rotation
-Washington’s OF/1B glut
-Yankees’ CF job
-Minnesota’s OF
-Cubs’ 5th starter
-Mets’ fifth starter
-White Sox’ 2B

If there are any other position battles that you would like me to take a look at, please feel free to suggest them in the comments section.

Today, we’re going to kick things off with the back of the Cleveland Indians’ rotation. Despite the immaculate campaign turned in by lefty Cliff Lee (2.83 FIP, 5/1 K/BB ratio), the Tribe’s starting corps was a middle-of-the-pack outlet in 2008. Cleveland’s starters ranked 8th in the American League in team FIP (4.30), as ’07 ace Fausto Carmona dealt with injuries and a subsequent loss of command, and dependable mid-rotation cog Jake Westbrook fell victim to Tommy John surgery.

The Indians posted 84 third-order wins in ’08 in an AL Central Division where the highest total was Chicago’s 88. With no team in the Central appearing to have a clear upper hand, Cleveland might just be the favorites to snag a division title at this point: Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system projects an 83-79 season for the club, without another AL Central team reaching the .500 mark. If the Tribe are going to get back to October baseball, they will need to conjure up a suitable back of the rotation from a list that offers quantity, but varying quality.

As things currently stand, Lee and Carmona are the only starters who can be marked down in permanent ink. The third man, according to Cleveland’s official depth chart, is none other the Carl Pavano (assuming he hasn’t been injured since the end of this sentence). The much-maligned former Yankee inked a one-year, $1.5 million deal this winter, with over $5M in possible incentives. The last time Pavano threw 100 innings (heck, the last time he threw more than 34 innings) was 2005. The 33 year-old made 7 starts for the Bombers last year, posting a 5.37 FIP. Pavano has never been a high-strikeout hurler (career 5.75 K/9), but he fanned less than four batters per nine innings in 2008. His fastball velocity, about 90 MPH in prior years, was down to 88 MPH. Even if Pavano is physically sound (no sure bet, obviously), you’ll probably want to look elsewhere for rotation help.

Former Cardinals golden boy Anthony Reyes is currently penciled into the fourth slot. The former USC product, acquired last summer for reliever Luis Perdomo, has a sustained track record of success in the minors but has thus far failed to stay out of the trainer’s room. Reyes punched out 9.46 batters per nine innings in the minors, walking a solid 2.15 per nine as well. The problems for Reyes seem to be two-fold: one, he seemingly prefers to work up in the zone with his 90 MPH heater, which can lead to some souvenirs being deposited in the bleachers (1.38 HR/9 in his major league career). There’s no way to know for sure, but some have suggested that Reyes’ falling out with St. Louis’ pitching coach Dave Duncan stemmed from Duncan’s preference for a two-seamer while Reyes preferred to continue using the four-seamer.

The flat-billed, high-socked 27 year-old also has a delivery that some believe is detrimental to his long-term health. Via Driveline Mechanics, here’s Kyle Boddy’s take on Reyes’ mechanics:

“As you can plainly see (I slowed it down to make sure), Reyes still gets his elbow way up there in hyperabduction and takes his elbow well behind the acromial line in forced horizontal shoulder abduction. What I didn’t notice before is a bad grab (tension in the wrist) and an absolutely terrible followthrough – look how he slams the brakes on his arm after he releases it!”

Reyes’ delivery puts an undue amount of stress on his shoulder and elbow. Boddy then goes on to list the litany of injuries that Reyes has endured:

“2004: Missed two months to shoulder tendinitis.
2005: Missed two weeks to a sprained acromioclavicular (AC) joint.
Mid-2008: Missed two weeks with an elbow injury.
Late 2008: Missed the rest of the regular season with an elbow injury. “

Reyes is someone to keep an eye on, but his homer-happy tendencies and lengthy injury history may preclude him from ever making good on the promise he showed as a Cardinals farm hand.

Left-hander Aaron Laffey currently fills the fifth spot for the Tribe. 24 in April, Laffey blows no one away with his stuff: the 2003 16th-rounder threw his fastball at an average velocity of 86.6 MPH in 2008, supplementing the modest sinker with a high-70’s slider and low-80’s changeup. In 25 careers starts between the ’07 and ’08 seasons, Laffey has posted a 4.48 FIP, relying on good control (2.71 BB/9) and groundball tendencies (54.9 GB%) to counteract few missed bats (4.28 K/9).

Earlier this offseason, Peter Bendix put Laffey under the microscope and concluded that the 6-0, 185 pounder could be an adequate solution in the back of a fantasy rotation. A guy who puts the ball in play as often as Laffey is no sure thing, but his control/groundball combo makes the low K rate a little easier to swallow. Keep an eye on Cleveland’s infield situation: a worm-killer like Laffey would benefit most if new Indian Mark DeRosa were installed at second, shifting plus defender Asdrubal Cabrera to shortstop and Jhonny Peralta to third.

A southpaw plucked out of UCLA in 1st round of the 2006 draft, David Huff might possess the most long-term potential of Cleveland’s plethora of back-rotation candidates. Huff is fresh off a 2008 season in which he tore through AA and AAA, and he’s knocking on the door step of the big leagues. With Akron (AA), the 6-2 lefty punched out 62 batters in 65.2 innings (8.5 K/9), also showcasing sharp control with 1.92 BB/9. Bumped up to Buffalo, Huff owned the International League, striking out 9.04 hitters per nine innings with 1.67 BB/9. The former Bruin doesn’t quite have the knock-out scouting reports to go with those superb numbers, but his stuff is quite solid: per Baseball America, Huff supplements an 87-92 MPH fastball with a plus changeup, an improved slider and the occasional curveball.

Jeremy Sowers might be the most familiar name on this list, though his chances of cracking the starting rotation appear quite grim. The finesse lefty has posted a FIP in excess of five in the big leagues in ’07 and ’08, and even his 2006 showing that got people talking (3.57 ERA) produced just a 4.57 FIP. Sowers is basically Aaron Laffey without the groundballs. At best, he’s an adequate fifth starter in the majors.

Like Sowers (Vanderbilt), Scott Lewis is a southpaw out of a major college program (Ohio State). Despite rather modest stuff (mid-80’s fastball, mid-70’s slider, low-70’s curve, high-70’s change), Lewis has posted some wacky minor league stats. The former Buckeye struck out about 7.5 batters per nine innings between AA and AAA last season, walking scarcely a batter per nine to boot. Before you get too excited, do keep in mind the aforementioned scouting reports, his health history (Tommy John surgery, biceps tendinitis) and Lewis’ flyball tendencies. I took a gander at Lewis earlier this offseason:

“So, what can we expect of Lewis in 2009 and beyond? His minor league track record is quite good, but we are also talking about a guy who throws 87 MPH on a good day, with flyball tendencies to boot. Will hitters continue to flail at Lewis’ changeup, or will they learn to lay off of it and make him use his mild heater? Will the home run bug bite him at the highest level of competition? Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system offered an eclectic mix of possible outcomes for Lewis’ career before last season. Among Lewis’ most comparable players were Ted Lilly and Randy Wolf on the positive side, and Casey Fossum on the opposite end of the spectrum. It’s probably best to take a wait-and-see approach with Lewis in 2009. Finesse, flyball lefties generally don’t fare well in the DH league.”

Zach Jackson, yet another lefty, is an ostensible candidate for a starting job. However, you probably want to avoid this one: an extra chip tossed in to the CC Sabathia deal, Jackson has posted a FIP around 4.50 over the past few years in AAA, with few K’s and just average control.

Some of you are probably wondering, “where’s Adam Miller?” For pragmatic reasons, I decided to not include him. Everyone knows the drill with Miller by now: blistering, mid-90’s heat, a devastating slider and a maddening propensity to get hurt: elbow and finger maladies limited Miller to 65.1 innings in 2007 and just 28.2 frames in 2008. Cleveland seems intent on keeping the 24 year-old in the bullpen as a means of self-preservation. If healthy, Miller could become dominant in a late-inning role.

Overall, the Indians have a bunch of contenders for those last three spots, though just how many quality options the club possesses remains to be seen. While a few of these guys might end up in the bullpen or AAA for the time being, it’s possible that most will see significant action, given the injury concerns with Pavano and Reyes. If Cleveland is to return to the postseason in a wide-open division, they’ll need a few of these guys to step up and provide value behind Lee and Carmona.

This advice, of course, depends on the size of your league. If you’re in a 14-team NL only league, you are almost certainly going to have some middle relievers on your team. However, in most 10- or 12-team mixed leagues, you generally are best off avoiding middle relievers altogether, with two exceptions: 1) you expect that they will become closer soon, and 2) it’s late in the season and you can gain ground in ERA or WHIP. Other than that, however, middle relievers should be avoided.

Why? Because they really don’t add much to your team. If a middle reliever gets a win or save, it’s usually a fluke – it’s almost impossible to predict how many wins a guy like Rafael Betancourt will have in 2009, for example. And even the best middle relievers usually only pitch 60-70 innings. So even if you stumble onto a fantastic season by someone like Betancourt, his impact upon your team is minimal, because he’s only pitching 60-70 innings. It’s a very rare middle reliever who is worth having on your team – someone like Mariano Rivera in 1996, or Octavio Dotel in 2001 or 2002. These pitchers are few and far between, and “typical” middle relievers just don’t help you enough to justify a roster spot.

Again, it’s not that someone like Betancourt or Scot Shields isn’t a good pitcher; rather, it’s that their roster spot can be better spent on someone else. In many leagues, you can manipulate matchups so that the roster spot is occupied by a rotating assortment of waiver wire starters who have favorable matchups (in pitchers’ parks and/or against bad offenses). These pitchers may not be particularly good, but if you manipulate their matchups they can provide a heck of a lot more value than even a very good middle reliever.

As mentioned above, middle relievers are generally acceptable when you have reason to believe that they will become the closer very soon. They are also acceptable down the stretch run (generally August and September only), if your team is in the position where you stand to gain points from even a small improvement in ERA or WHIP. In this situation, the small amount of innings that a middle reliever will provide is particularly beneficial. However, in all other situations, middle relievers are almost always a waste of a roster spot.

WHIP is a silly thing. Some people like to refer to it as a newfangled Moneyball stat, alongside VORP and tRA. But WHIP is old-fashioned, and not particularly indicative of player skill. Of course, pitchers who don’t walk anyone and don’t give up hits tend to be better pitchers, but we don’t need WHIP to tell us how good these pitchers are. WHIP is a byproduct of many other stats, and therefore should essentially be ignored when assessing pitchers.

That’s right: ignore WHIP. Because if you draft good pitchers, they are almost certainly going to have good WHIPs. In fact, there are very few pitchers whose WHIPs differ dramatically from their ERA and strikeout ability. And often times, when there is a significant difference between WHIP and other statistics, it’s a fluke, and unlikely to be repeated the next season.

It follows that pitchers with low ERAs tend to have lower WHIPs as well. Pitchers who have low ERAs tend to either get a lot of strikeouts or a lot of ground balls – or, failing this, they at least drastically limit their walks. Having a good WHIP is a byproduct of these three other skills: avoiding balls, missing bats, and inducing grounders. If you look for pitchers with these skills, their WHIP will follow.

The only exception for this is the mid-season tweak rule. Somewhere around July 1 (there’s no exact date, but the later the better), all bets are off: you need to tweak your roster accordingly, and most of what you read before the season can be thrown out the window. If there is one pitcher who has a particularly good WHIP and your WHIP is very high, there is nothing wrong with trying to obtain that pitcher – just be careful that the WHIP is for real, and not the byproduct of unsustainable luck.

In general, though, if you acquire a pitcher who avoids walks, gets strikeouts and induces grounders, that pitcher will have a more than respectable WHIP as well. And you won’t even have to look at that category.

A lot of highly touted prospects begin the year in the minor leagues, but make an impact by the end of the season. If you know where to look and you are willing to be patient, you can take advantage of prospects.

For example, Jay Bruce was very highly touted coming in to 2008, but the Reds didn’t call him up until late May (probably to prevent him from becoming a Super Two player down the road). However, when he did come up, he made a big impact, smacking 21 homers. Those of you who were patient with Bruce received an infusion of power starting in late May – almost as if you acquired a power hitter for free.

Francisco Liriano is another (rather extreme) example of when patience pays off. Back in 2006, Liriano began the season in the bullpen, and many fantasy players gave up on him, despite his solid performance out of the pen. Those who were patient were rewarded with 16 phenomenal starts down the stretch. Of course, most youngsters aren’t able to perform at the level that Liriano did, but many of them can make a positive impact on your team.

The key to prospecting is figuring out what players are likely to be called up, and what players are not. For example, Jason Heyward is one of the best prospects in the game, but is very unlikely to make it to the majors this year. Meanwhile, Matt LaPorta is on the brink of a call-up, and could provide immediate value once he makes it to the show.

Furthermore, unless you play in a particularly deep league, you should understand that very few prospects may a huge impact in fantasy leagues right away. Often times even highly touted prospects fail in their first stint in the majors (remember Cameron Maybin in 2007 with Detroit?), and just aren’t worth stashing away. You have to find guys who are both on the cusp of major league action, as well as likely to have some impact when they do make it. Players like this for 2009 include LaPorta, Jordan Schafer, Tommy Hanson, Colby Rasmus, Michael Bowden, Andrew McCutchen and Dexter Fowler.

Prospects can add a lot of value to your team, but don’t get caught up in overvaluing what could be rather than what actually is.

Let’s say you’ve signed up for a fantasy baseball league – either with your buddies, or a public league with people you’ve never met before. Let’s say that you’re in a league with prizes – a league in which you probably had to pay some sort of entry fee. You plan on spending a lot of time fine-tuning your team throughout the season. Obviously, your goal is to win this league.

If you want to win, don’t get caught up in being a fan.

I don’t care if you passionately hate the Yankees – if Alex Rodriguez is available in the second round, you had better take him. I don’t care if you bleed Cubbie blue – don’t draft Kosuke Fukudome in the 8th round. If you really want to win, you have to remove your own fandom from your fantasy team.

This is often more easily said than done. Some people just can’t stand the sight of players they hate manning a roster spot on their beloved fantasy team. Others can’t stand seeing their favorite guys wasting away on an opponent’s roster. But if you’re going to pay money and dedicate all of this time you building a winning fantasy team, don’t undermine your own efforts. Just because you have Arod on your team doesn’t mean you have to become a Yankees fan, and just because you don’t have your own guys on your team doesn’t mean you can’t root for them. Separate fantasy from reality.

You just have to get over it, or make the decision that rooting against Arod is more important than winning the league. There’s nothing wrong with deciding that, either – to each his or her own. But you had better understand the consequences of such a decision, and be okay with it. You can’t decide against drafting Arod and then complain if you don’t win your league – you had the chance, and you decided you that your hatred of Arod was more important than winning. So don’t be surprised if you lose.

You can be a fan and be a fantasy player at the same time. Just make sure to keep them separate.

The season is long. Players go through peaks and slumps. BE PATIENT.

Too many times fantasy players get worried or frustrated and make stupid decisions. For example, last season I traded Adam Wainwright for CC Sabathia, straight up, in April. Wainwright was pitching well and I had high hopes for him, but CC was CC, even though he had been terrible. CC’s owner panicked and dealt him for a solid pitcher, but I was able to take advantage and Sabathia pitched extremely well for me during the rest of the season.

Of course, this is a rather dramatic example. Often times, the more telling examples are knowing when to drop decent players who are in slumps, or knowing when to pick up mediocre players who are hitting well. In general, the best piece of advice is to ignore how a player has performed over the last few weeks, and instead focus on how they have performed over the last few years, as this is a far better predictor of future performance. Bad players can be very good over a few weeks or months, and great players can be very bad. Occasionally a player will come out of nowhere to have a fantastic season – Ryan Ludwick, for example – but this is the exception, rather than the rule. You may miss out on Ryan Ludwick, but it’s worth it to avoid the flash-in-the-pan guys who will fizzle the instant you add them to your roster.

Similarly, there are certainly players who go through season-long funks – like Nick Swisher – but most of the time people with established track records bounce back in the midst of what appears to be a disappointing season. For example, AJ Burnett had a 5.42 ERA on June 19. Many people may have dumped him at that point – but smart players understood that his peripherals were still good (90/46 K/BB ratio in 91 innings), and that Burnett had a track record of success. Owners who held on to Burnett were rewarded, as he had a 3.12 ERA (and 141 strikeouts) over the rest of the season.

When in doubt, defer to a player’s established track record, not their most recent success or failure. And read Rotographs, as we’ll attempt to help you decipher whether a player’s recent play represents a true never level of ability (for better or worse), or is just the fluke of a small sample size.