Maybe it’s just because I’ve been keeping such close watch on my AL outfielders beat, but it seems that no position in fantasy baseball has seen more fluctuation in the first month of the season than this one. There are former studs still hitting sub-.200 (here’s to you, Carl Crawford, Alex Rios and Vernon Wells) while lesser-thought of has-beens are piling up RBIs (hello, Jeff Francoeur, Alex Gordon and Johnny Damon). And that’s to say nothing of a fella named Sam Fuld who’s gone from complete after-thought to straight up legen — wait for it — dary.

How do we make sense of such who-could’ve-seen-this-coming-ness? Why, by updating the RotoGraphs AL outfielders rankings, of course!

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Timing is an important factor in this space. I had been planning to include Alexi Amarista, a second baseman in the Angels org who leads the minors with a .455 batting average. Except Amarista no longer plays in the minors…because the Angels called up the 22-year-old earlier this week to be a part of their middle infield mix in a utility role. Oh well. That just means one of these minor leaguers got some pub instead.

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Earlier this week, on the main FanGraphs blog,  we re-ran Pizza Cutter’s classic study (yes, I think it’s a legitimate classic), 525,600 minutes: how do you measure a player in a year.  In it, he demonstrated just how large of a sample size you really need before you can start drawing conclusions about a batter’s skills.  The answer was a lot more than I think most folks realize: you can get an idea of a hitter’s swing % and contact rate pretty quickly, but stats like OBP, SLG, and especially AVG (much less BABIP!) take 500 PA or more to provide much useful information.  While I think many fantasy managers understand the need for patience, I also see a tremendous emphasis placed on small samples when I read fantasy baseball advice–especially when it comes to players on hot and cold streaks.

Is there something special about a hot or cold streak that makes it different from a typical small sample of performance?  It seems like there could be, right?  Even if you can’t trust a normal sample of 20 PA’s, if someone is absolutely tearing the cover off the ball–or is striking out in virtually every PA–might that not mean that he’s likely to hit particularly well (or poorly) for the next few games?  After all, we see (or, at least, think we see) guys go through amazing hot streaks all the time when watching baseball, and players describe what it’s like: the game slows down, the ball looks bigger, etc.

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Chalk it up to small sample size. This column is off to a 2-for-2 start, with each edition having highlighted a minor leaguer who was called up to the bigs only days later. First Chris Davis two weeks ago, then Jerry Sands last week. Don’t expect Mining the Minors to maintain this type of perfection because, frankly, that would be impossible. In fact, the three players chosen in this installment, while certainly capable of making an impact at some point in 2011, will definitely not be doing so in the next few days. Even Jobu doesn’t have that kind of power.

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For years I have preached about the immense depth at starting pitching.  You can find plenty of quality starters for cheap in your draft and, with the help of the waiver wire, can build a successful fantasy rotation without having to invest heavily in an ace or two.  With a nice complement of some quality relievers, you can go cheap on starters and, in turn, bulk up on better hitters.  In the end, your team dominates in the offensive categories, puts up a solid showing in almost all of the pitching categories, and leaves you at the top of your standings by season’s end. Read the rest of this entry »

Negotiating trades in fantasy baseball can always be tough in competitive leagues.  Everyone is trying to gain the upper hand and each time you ask for that better starting pitcher or that more powerful outfielder, you end up taking some kind of grief for over-valuing your own players.  So why not try and get that extra boost in numbers from a low-profile spot like behind the plate?  Negotiate a deal and then try to throw in your over-performing catcher for their under-performing one who you think has the potential to improve.  You just might be able to squeeze some more out from their end.  Looking at early season BABIP and xBABIP, here’s a look at some “throw-ins” you just might want to try out… Read the rest of this entry »

Now is the time that a lot of managers, myself included, are starting to feel the first twinges of panic about our rosters.  Just a sampling from my world: Kila Ka’aihue hasn’t hit since his big walkoff homer, and is starting to lose playing time to Wilson Betemit.  Sean Rodriguez is still benched every other day despite the Longoria injury.  MadBum is pitching like crap.  The list goes on…

Here’s another, turning the clock back to last Sunday night: in my 20-team H2H points league (lwts-based), Lance Berkman is my starting 1B (actually, I’m playing him at UT to save his knees.  Zing!  That’s bad fantasy humor, but I’m incredibly amused by it).  And Sunday, I was seriously thinking about benching him.  Through his first eight games, Lance Berkman hit just .214/.290/.286.  Meanwhile, Travis Hafner was sitting on my bench, and he was absolutely on fire, hitting .370/.433/.630 over the first week!   Why not just swap out for the coming week?

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Fantasy owners in search of The Next Big Thing™ should take note of a certain starting pitcher in the Brewers system who is on the verge of the big leagues and has legitimate Cy Young stuff. Unfortunately, Zack Greinke is already owned in your league. Although he’s set to make a rehab start or two while recovering from his fractured rib, Greinke isn’t exactly eligible for a spot in this edition of Mining the Minors. But here are three lesser-known minor leaguers who could make an impact at some point in the near future. In fact, one of them is Greinke’s Nashville Sounds rotation mate.

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Save for a few rogue ottoneu one league members, we’re all new to this game. One quirk in the game is the fact that though we have two catcher slots, we only get 162 games from those two slots combined. This is to reflect the reality shown in real baseball – all catcher situations are tandems, more or less. It’s a difficult position, and so even the hardiest, youngest catchers need days off. This does leave ottoneu managers in a difficult position – how do we best handle that position?

Let’s focus on the top 12 catchers by games played last year. They averaged 130 games played. That means you should really buy a number one catcher and then look for a $1 value to plug in for those other 32 games. That means if you are playing two catchers every game, you better watch out for your games played limit, like, now.

But how should you use those 32 games best? One thing you could do is find a backup catcher with a great platoon split. Then you could play him whenever that split is activated, and get more value out those games. Going back to 2008 in order to get a decent sample, here are some guys that have played well against lefties but might be backups in your ottoneu league:

Kelly Shoppach (.396 wOBA)
John Buck (.374 wOBA)
Carlos Ruiz (.368 wOBA)
Ryan Hanigan (.360 wOBA)
Ronny Paulino (.353 wOBA)

A natural extension of this approach might actually have you sitting your primary catcher if they aren’t great against southpaws. That would leave more at-bats for your backup in case you ended up with two strong catchers. Here are some front-line dudes that don’t play so front-line against lefties:

Matt Wieters (.275 wOBA)
Kurt Suzuki (.292 wOBA)
Miguel Montero (.328 wOBA)
Russell Martin (.333 wOBA)
Brian McCann (.333 wOBA)

There are some obvious caveats that should come to mind. First, this second list includes some young players that have not ‘proven’ that they cannot hit lefties yet. Also, a .333 wOBA is above average, and strong for a catcher, so maybe you shouldn’t sit Brian McCann, like, ever.

But there is a chance that if you have a first catcher that is a little weaker against lefties, and a backup catcher that is strong against lefties, you might find a great mix between the two. With a little daily effort, you can use platoon splits to get the best 162 games out of your roster.

As you’ve all seen/read/heard by now, the big news late last week revolved around one Manuel Aristides Ramírez Onelcida and his abrupt retirement from baseball. Expected to be a big part of the Rays’ offense when he signed in the offseason, Ramirez said goodbye after just 17 (mostly hitless) at-bats rather than face whatever “issue” he was alerted of by MLB’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. Our Jonah Keri chimed in with his immediate reaction in the wake of the news, but let’s break down the fantasy fallout of Manny’s decision.

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