Back on April 21st, I wrote a Kicking Rocks piece entitled, “Don’t Chase the Ace” in which I lamented going pitching heavy in my draft.  I was disgruntled with the fact that my offense was anemic while I continued to watch my ratios explode with each and every start from my supposed stable of high quality aces.  While there were several of you that felt my pain, there were also many of you that criticized me for my concerns so early on in the season.  I was then asked to re-visit this 3 months into the season, so as we get ready to head into the All Star Break, here we go… Read the rest of this entry »

Late Wednesday night, the Mariners called up Kyle Seager. In a related story, this edition of Mining the Minors got much more interesting just before midnight.

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Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve written two pretty similar pieces on third basemen. One of which has made me look like a genius — the other has made me look like a total idiot. That’s one of the main issues with making predictions here on RotoGraphs. You try to come to the best conclusions based on stats, player history, etc. — but sometimes you still end up with egg on your face. Hindsight being what it is, I would like to look back at my methods in each instance and try to determine where I went wrong and what aspects of the process I had correct. I think this exercise will help the readers understand my methods and will let me know the areas where I can improve in the future.
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Another top-notch prospect made his long-awaited debut this week. No point in keeping you from getting better acquainted.

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This stretch of the season is often the toughest for owners. Most of the big breakouts have already happened (hello, Michael Pineda, Alex Avila and Matt Joyce), plenty of the bounceback candidates have proved they can still play (right, Lance Berkman, David Ortiz and Josh Beckett?) and many of the elite prospects have been called up (thanks, Eric Hosmer, Jordan Lyles and Dustin Ackley). That leaves owners who missed out on those players to seek help either via trade or by identifying — and adding — players who have underperformed so far. This late in the game, it’s a trickier decision-making process because all the options come with some ugly pock marks (hence, the underperforming and all), but there are always a few possibilities for second-half surges. Like these three American League outfielders.

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Over a month ago, I looked at relievers that have SP qualification. For leagues that have daily transactions, these pitchers can fit in nicely for real starting pitchers on their off days. They are must haves in leagues that count holds. Also, they may vulture a save or win here and there and help pad your rate stats. Today, I am going to look at a few more of these pitchers.

Mike Stutes, Phi – In late April, Stutes joined the Phillies and was mainly used in low leverage situations. As the Phillies pen has gone through several changes, he has moved into the role as one of the main setup men.

The main reason for his climb has been his ability to strike more than 1 batter per IP (9.13 K/9). The high number of K’s,low BABIP (0.200) and low HR/FB (6.7 HR/FB) has lead to his ERA of 2.00. His FIP (3.93) and xFIP (4.27) are both about twice his ERA and the increase is mainly do to his BB/9 of 5.3.

Stutes seems like a nice option for holds and a vulture and win now and then (3 in the last 4 games he has appeared in), but his ERA does not look sustainable at this low level.

Tony Watson, Pit – Since pitching his first MLB game on Jun 8, Watson has been lights out for the Pirates with an ERA of 0.94. Also he is almost striking out 1 batter per inning (8.4 K/9). This strikeout rate may not be sustainable since he only averaged 7.4 K/9 in minors.

Besides the higher than normal K numbers, he is walking over 4.5 batters per nine innings. Also, he has a low BABIP (0.200) and HR/FB rate (0.0). These values can be seen with his his FIP (2.64) and xFIP (3.70) being multiple times higher than his ERA.

He is currently being used in late inning situations so there will be chances for Holds and vulture wins as the season goes on. Watson seems to be a nice option for SP/RP, but his ERA and K/9 will regress a bit.

Sam LeCure, Cin – After 4 games in April as a starter, LeCure has been moved to the pen where his results look like he has excelled. As a starter his ERA was 4.79, but as a reliever it is 0.56. Don’t let these numbers fool you. His K/9 and BB/9 as a starter (8.27, 2.18) were better than those as a reliever (7.88, 2.25). As a reliever he has been helped out with a lower BABIP (0.158 vs 0.268) and HR/FB rate (6.3% vs 18.2%).

As a whole though, LeCure seems to be a fairly servicable reliever with a K/BB over 3.5 and an ERA that should be near the 3.50 range. One area currently that doesn’t bode well for him is that he doesn’t look to be a designated setup men, so the number of holds he gets may be limited.

Hisanori Takahashi, LAA – At the beginning of the season, I looked at Takahashi as a SP/RP to target this season. He started the season performing horribly (6.59 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9). Since May 7th, he has seemed to turn the season around (1.33 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9). I could understand why some owners dumped him, but it may be time to look at possibly picking him up again.

One name that has come up often this year in the fanciful world of Prospectville is the Diamondbacks’ Paul Goldschmidt. He leads the minors with 22 home runs, in case you didn’t know. That sort of thing tends to get fantasy owners’ attention. As does Kevin Towers, the team’s GM, recently hinting that the D-backs may consider promoting a few of their minor leaguers in the weeks surrounding the All-Star Game. Seems like a good time to take a look at Goldschmidt and a few others in the system.

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Alas, for the first time in almost two months, there are no really big names to cover this week. (Thanks for the break, front office folks.) As such, nobody below is likely to make an impact in mixed leagues. But there are still two new names — and a pair of old friends — worth looking at in single-league play.

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Mariners top prospect Dustin Ackley will step into a major-league batter’s box for the first time when he faces off against Philadelphia’s Roy Oswalt just about 12 hours from now. You probably shouldn’t wait that long to pick him up.

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There’s news of Dustin Ackley’s debut Friday. We’ll look at the 2009 No. 2 pick more in depth for tomorrow’s post. For now, let’s rewind and point out a handful of guys who were promoted in the past week, including one who just might be more valuable than Ackley.

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