Kyle Blanks, Trayvon Robinson, Brad Brach: Mining the Minors
This week, we’ll cover two Padres and a Dodger. In other words, those of you in NL West-only leagues are in luck.
Archive for Strategy
American League Outfielder Rankings: Second Half
The All-Star break is as good a time as any to update our American League Outfielder Rankings. (Note: That means outfielders who play only in the AL, so please don’t flood the comments with oblivious flabbergastery over the complete and utter disrespect for not including Jay Bruce. For that, go here.) Given the timing, let’s go ahead and call this our second-half ranks. While performances to date do matter, the intent here is to, as Doc Brown might say: “Get a clear perception of humanity (i.e., fantasy performance). Where we’ve been (April, May, June), where we’re going (July, August, September), the pitfalls (Carl Crawford), the possibilities (Curtis Granderson), the perils (Shin-Soo Choo) and the promise (Mike Trout). Perhaps even an answer to that universal question: Where is [insert name here] ranked?”
Chronicles of ottoneu: Selling & Free Teams
by Eno Sarris
July 13, 2011
Ug. In the FanGraphs home league on ottoneu, the fantasy guy in the room has been embarrassed. It’s a Perm needs to open up its doors and sell, sell, sell. I hang my head in shame. My team of old dudes that take walks didn’t take enough of them and proved to be too old.
Maybe you guys can help me spot my most sellable veterans. So far the sharks are circling for Jonathan Papelbon, mostly. He’s not real old, but I have to think about possible returns too. Help me out here. And if you do, I’ll give you a tip on a good deal.
Deep League Waiver Wire Draft
By now you’ve read about our RotoGraphs deep-league Pick Six-like draft. For a refresher, here’s Mr. Bender’s rundown of the process and his draft strategy, as well as the method to the madness behind Mr. Sarris’ selections, and if you’re looking for the full draft recap, check Mr. Zimmerman’s post. Now allow me to explain my choices, starting with No. 2 overall.
Kicking Rocks: Re-Visiting “Don’t Chase the Ace”
Back on April 21st, I wrote a Kicking Rocks piece entitled, “Don’t Chase the Ace” in which I lamented going pitching heavy in my draft. I was disgruntled with the fact that my offense was anemic while I continued to watch my ratios explode with each and every start from my supposed stable of high quality aces. While there were several of you that felt my pain, there were also many of you that criticized me for my concerns so early on in the season. I was then asked to re-visit this 3 months into the season, so as we get ready to head into the All Star Break, here we go… Read the rest of this entry »
Kyle Seager: Mining the Minors
Late Wednesday night, the Mariners called up Kyle Seager. In a related story, this edition of Mining the Minors got much more interesting just before midnight.
The Fun in Making Predictions
Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve written two pretty similar pieces on third basemen. One of which has made me look like a genius — the other has made me look like a total idiot. That’s one of the main issues with making predictions here on RotoGraphs. You try to come to the best conclusions based on stats, player history, etc. — but sometimes you still end up with egg on your face. Hindsight being what it is, I would like to look back at my methods in each instance and try to determine where I went wrong and what aspects of the process I had correct. I think this exercise will help the readers understand my methods and will let me know the areas where I can improve in the future.
Read the rest of this entry »
Lonnie Chisenhall: Mining the Minors
Another top-notch prospect made his long-awaited debut this week. No point in keeping you from getting better acquainted.
Three American League Outfielders You Should Add
This stretch of the season is often the toughest for owners. Most of the big breakouts have already happened (hello, Michael Pineda, Alex Avila and Matt Joyce), plenty of the bounceback candidates have proved they can still play (right, Lance Berkman, David Ortiz and Josh Beckett?) and many of the elite prospects have been called up (thanks, Eric Hosmer, Jordan Lyles and Dustin Ackley). That leaves owners who missed out on those players to seek help either via trade or by identifying — and adding — players who have underperformed so far. This late in the game, it’s a trickier decision-making process because all the options come with some ugly pock marks (hence, the underperforming and all), but there are always a few possibilities for second-half surges. Like these three American League outfielders.
Stutes, Watson, Lecure, Takahashi: SP/RP Relievers
Over a month ago, I looked at relievers that have SP qualification. For leagues that have daily transactions, these pitchers can fit in nicely for real starting pitchers on their off days. They are must haves in leagues that count holds. Also, they may vulture a save or win here and there and help pad your rate stats. Today, I am going to look at a few more of these pitchers.
Mike Stutes, Phi – In late April, Stutes joined the Phillies and was mainly used in low leverage situations. As the Phillies pen has gone through several changes, he has moved into the role as one of the main setup men.
The main reason for his climb has been his ability to strike more than 1 batter per IP (9.13 K/9). The high number of K’s,low BABIP (0.200) and low HR/FB (6.7 HR/FB) has lead to his ERA of 2.00. His FIP (3.93) and xFIP (4.27) are both about twice his ERA and the increase is mainly do to his BB/9 of 5.3.
Stutes seems like a nice option for holds and a vulture and win now and then (3 in the last 4 games he has appeared in), but his ERA does not look sustainable at this low level.
Tony Watson, Pit – Since pitching his first MLB game on Jun 8, Watson has been lights out for the Pirates with an ERA of 0.94. Also he is almost striking out 1 batter per inning (8.4 K/9). This strikeout rate may not be sustainable since he only averaged 7.4 K/9 in minors.
Besides the higher than normal K numbers, he is walking over 4.5 batters per nine innings. Also, he has a low BABIP (0.200) and HR/FB rate (0.0). These values can be seen with his his FIP (2.64) and xFIP (3.70) being multiple times higher than his ERA.
He is currently being used in late inning situations so there will be chances for Holds and vulture wins as the season goes on. Watson seems to be a nice option for SP/RP, but his ERA and K/9 will regress a bit.
Sam LeCure, Cin – After 4 games in April as a starter, LeCure has been moved to the pen where his results look like he has excelled. As a starter his ERA was 4.79, but as a reliever it is 0.56. Don’t let these numbers fool you. His K/9 and BB/9 as a starter (8.27, 2.18) were better than those as a reliever (7.88, 2.25). As a reliever he has been helped out with a lower BABIP (0.158 vs 0.268) and HR/FB rate (6.3% vs 18.2%).
As a whole though, LeCure seems to be a fairly servicable reliever with a K/BB over 3.5 and an ERA that should be near the 3.50 range. One area currently that doesn’t bode well for him is that he doesn’t look to be a designated setup men, so the number of holds he gets may be limited.
Hisanori Takahashi, LAA – At the beginning of the season, I looked at Takahashi as a SP/RP to target this season. He started the season performing horribly (6.59 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9). Since May 7th, he has seemed to turn the season around (1.33 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9). I could understand why some owners dumped him, but it may be time to look at possibly picking him up again.