Pedro Alvarez and Paul Goldschmidt: Mining the Minors
With lots of ground to cover in the wake of all the call-ups and promotions following the trade deadline, here’s a rapid-fire version of Mining the Minors.
Archive for Strategy
Thank You, Albert Pujols
There is no MLB trade deadline information or secret fantasy baseball advice to be had here. No sleepers, no breakouts, no rookie names for you to be the first to know. Today is merely a day of appreciation; a chance to thank one of the greatest baseball players of the new millennium for something which he gets very little credit or notoriety. Thank you, Albert Pujols, for changing the game of fantasy baseball forever. Read the rest of this entry »
Johnny Giavotella and Ryan Lavarnway: Mining the Minors
This week, it’s finally time to get to a pair of guys who were becoming impossible to ignore with their recent play. Even if one of them is forever blocked by the unsurpassable Chris Getz.
Brennan Boesch and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Second Half
Exactly one year ago today, Tigers outfielder Brennan Boesch was hitting .312/.376/.530 — good for a .907 OPS. What happened next is not for the faint of heart.
Aceves, McCutchen, Laffey: SP/RP Qualified Relievers
I have profiled several SP/RP qualified relievers so far this season (here and here and here) with David Hernandez currently being the best out of the bunch. Today I am going to dig a little deeper and look at some SP/RP relievers on the fringe of being owned.
Alfredo Aceves (0.6% owned ESPN) – On the surface, Aceves looks to have pitched OK as a reliever this season with 7 Holds, 2.64 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. These stats are all smoke and mirrors. The rate stats are being driven by a low BABIP of 0.188. His FIP (4.72) and xFIP (4.60) are much higher.
The one item he has been able to improve has a reliever is his walks. As a starter his walk rate is 5.57 BB/9, but as a reliever it is down to 2.64 BB/9.
I would not count on him padding your rate stats. I could see him being a decent source of counting stats like Holds (Boston should have plenty of leads) or Wins.
Daniel McCutchen (0.1% owned ESPN) – Like Aceves, McCutchen has some nice stats as a reliever, a 3-1 record, 8 Holds, a 1.20 WHIP and a 2.19 ERA. His low ERA is being driven down by a low BABIP (0.265) and HR/FB (6.3%). McCutchen has not been much of a strikeout pitcher in his time in the majors (4.9 K/9) and has walked a few too many batters (3.1 BB/9). All these stats lead to a FIP (3.87), xFIP (4.34) and SIERA (4.13) that are each about twice his ERA.
The only reason I see to own him is if an owner is in desperate need of Holds.
Aaron Laffey (0.0% owned ESPN) – Another player with a nice and pretty ERA (2.39). His ERA is not being suppessed by a super low BABIP (0.280) or HR/FB (13.9%). Instead, he has some how stranded 91.3% of the base runners allowed this season. Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but his FIP (4.61), xFIP (4.00) and SIERA (3.83) are all a bit higher than his ERA. With a K/BB of 1.75, he doesn’t provide much promise.
Also, he is generally not even used as a setup man, so his chances of generating Holds is at a minimum.
Final thoughts
All 3 of these pitchers have an ERA that is not sustainable and provide little in the way of Ks. If you are looking for some SP/RP qualified pitchers, I would look for one mention in one of my previous articles.
Jason Kipnis, Michael Taylor, Tom Milone: Mining the Minors
At approximately 4:45 p.m. Thursday, the Twitter handle @TheJK_Kid tweeted the following: “ITS TIME!” This was relevant because that account belongs to Indians prospect Jason Kipnis.
Jose Altuve, Jake McGee, Tyler Flowers: Mining the Minors
This may be the only time in history that the 6’2″, 235-pound Brandon Allen shares a space with mighty mite Jose Altuve — all 5’7″, 170 of him.
How Baseball’s Most Shockingly Good Outfield Explains This Fantasy Season
At this very moment, there are but four teams with all three starting outfielders ranking in the Top 40 among outfield WAR. When you’re done guessing — er, trying to guess — click below to find out which teams. (Hint: You might as well just click — you won’t get all four.)
Chronicles of ottoneu: Expert Sellers?
by Eno Sarris
July 20, 2011
Another week and another innovation at ottoneu headquarters. Now you can browse any ottoneu league you like, right here. A few recommendations include the FanGraphs Staff League, the original ottoneu league, Justin Merry’s league (for you linear weights players, since he’s the scoring system creator and all), and, yes, the Expert’s League. Use the feature to learn a little more about what you should do in your league.
For example. A little ride over to the commissioner’s team page in the Expert’s League can show you what our group of prognosticators decided Brian McCann was worth ($33). Or how many minor leaguers a seasoned ottoneu player owns (zero in this case). Lastly, since Commissioner Chad Young has his Amateur Hour team in seventh place, it can show you what another ottoneu team trying to decide whether to buy or sell looks like.
It’s an interesting team, you might find when you’re looking at his set lineups page. He’s got J.P. Arencibia and Brian McCann, two very good young catchers, both playing right now. And yet he only has 13 games left to play at the position. Is McCann going to be worth $35 next year? Will someone want Arencibia? This is a clear position of surplus for Young.
His team is not that old, though. Sure, he has Vladimir Guerrero ready to head to the bench for good, and of course no minor leaguers, but he also boasts Eric Hosmer, Hunter Pence, Domonic Brown and Mike Moustakas as position players. But the Vlad injury forces him to play Rajai Davis in the outfield. He could use an outfielder if he’s going to go for it this year.
His pitching is strong. Roy Halladay, Jered Weaver, Jeremy Hellickson, Shaun Marcum and Jair Jurrjens are the headliners, but Julio Teheran and Ryan Dempster make for a good bench. If he goes for it, a $10 Marcum might have great trade value without requiring him to sell his top pitching prospect. If he calls it quits on the year, a $43 Roy Halladay may not be keepable, as much of a machine as the Doc is.
The old adage is that “Nobody cares about your fantasy team.” The irony is that you can learn a lot from looking at other people’s fantasy teams. And before we get too up in arms about Chad’s team, we should go softly. He’s about to return from his honeymoon to discover that Guerrero broke his hand. As if returning from a honeymoon wasn’t difficult enough.
Oh, and the offer still stands! Fill an ottoneu league now, and the entire league is free. Contact ottoneu founder Niv Shah if that sounds interesting to you (on twitter or at help @ ottoneu.com).
Shortstop Risers and Fallers
It’s been awhile since we’ve done one of these. Let’s get right to it and take a look at some shortstop performances over the past two weeks.
Risers:
He’s actually steadily improved every month, but even his improvements were still far less than we’ve come to expect from Ramirez. His wOBA by month are .245, .312, .324, .516. Needless to say, July has been pretty kind to him. In his 61 plate appearances this month he’s hitting .392/.492/.706 with 4 HR, 17 RBI, and 7 K to 10 BB. The four home runs tie his high for a month this year and the 17 RBI are already eight more than he had back in April. It’s only been 61 plate appearances but it looks like Ramirez may finally be turning the corner we’ve all been waiting for. For all of us who have stuck by him this entire season I sure hope that’s the case.
His month of June was actually pretty amazing. He hit .297 in 105 plate appearances, but only managed a .681 OPS. He was the definition of an empty batting average. So far his July is pretty amazing as well. In his 42 plate appearances he has a 0.0% walk rate and 0.0% strikeout rate. Somehow he’s been able to run into two homers and banged out three doubles, giving him one less extra base hit than he had in June. He’s never hit for much power over his career, but has been able to maintain a decent enough average to retain value in deeper mixed or NL only leagues. He’s currently hitting .314 and is available in 93% of Yahoo! leagues.
Fallers
When Castro isn’t hitting for average he provides very little to your lineup. He doesn’t hit for any power and doesn’t walk enough to pick up any steals. This month he’s hit just .236 with zero steals and zero home runs. His strikeout rate has ballooned to 21.4% in 56 plate appearances. For someone that is owned in 91% of leagues you need better production out of him. If someone like Keppinger is available in your league you may be better off adding him until Castro can get back to his normal self.
They’re having shortstop issues on the south side of Chicago as well. Ramirez has been falling since June, putting up a .265/.311/.343 triple slash line with 1 HR and 11 RBI that month. That was after a hot May in which he posted a .389 wOBA. Unfortunately for him, he seems to have carried over the woes of June into July. He’s hitting .217 in the month, and while he does have two home runs his OBP is a horrible .265. The worst part about his season has been the lack of stolen bases. Ramirez had averaged 13 in his first three seasons but has only three so far, meaning he’s unlikely to reach double digits which severely damages his fantasy worth.