If you’re a little light in the speed department, then a couple of situations have opened up that might interest you. If you’re in an NL-only league, then my apologies. Feel free to move along. Nothing left to see here. But if you’re in an AL-only or mixed league, then these guys just might be able to help you out. Read the rest of this entry »
In the winter and spring we often hear about how a player wants to steal more bases to add another dimension to the came. Often times this is just talk, but there are always a few players who surprise some with their legs through the first few weeks of the season. Here are three players I have been surprised about in regards to how frequently they have run and how successful they have been so far.
In 12 games this season, Gamel has already surpassed his entire stolen base total from last year, when he played 138 games between triple-A and the majors. He is currently 3-0 in stolen bases, and while he has hit decently enough to get consideration in NL only leagues or as a corner infielder, adding the speed dimension to his game could make him substantially more valuable. It is unclear at this point if running will become a regular part of his game, but it is worth monitoring how many times he runs over the next few weeks and worth speculating if you are in a deeper league.
Beltan’s tremendous start to the season has been evident in more places than just at the plate. He has played solid right field defense and has also been effective on the base paths. He has attempted a steal four times and has been successful with three of them. The re-addition of speed to Beltran’s game looks like it could be sustainable as long as he stays healthy, and the Cardinals could run him a lot as he is hitting regularly in the two-spot in the lineup. The days of 25+ steals are likely well past Beltran, but I could see him reaching the upper teens with a healthy season.
Heyward has been a fantasy machine so far in 2012, currently ranking 26th overall in Yahoo! leagues. The ranking would be higher with more runs and RBI, but his average, home runs, and steals are all looking good so far. The steals have been especially surprising, as he is already stolen four bases on four attempts. If you look at ESPN.com’s projected player card, which just projects current stats over a 162 game season, Heyward would steal 54 bases. Obviously he will not reach that mark, but he could reach 30 steals if he remains healthy and productive offensively throughout the year. If you took a risk on drafting Heyward after his poor 2011, you are currently getting everything you could have hoped for and more in the early parts of 2012 — especially on the base paths.
Rajai Davis was enjoying mixed results this season as the Blue Jays’ center fielder before he endured a season-ending hamstring injury. He didn’t hit for average (0.238) or hit home runs (1), but he did manage to steal quite a few bases (34 in 338 PA). Taking into account how rarely he was on base (0.282 OBA), he was historically active on the basepaths.
To get an idea of how often he attempted to steal, I took the number of stolen base attempts (SB+CS) divided by the number of times he was on first (BB+1B+HBP). Not every time a player is on first do they actually have an opportunity to steal, but this combination does give a general idea of the number of chances vs. attempts. Here are the top players from 2011 (min 300 PA):
Rajai Davis = 70%
Jason Bourgeois = 54%
Dee Gordon = 48%
Eric Young = 44%
Davis was by far the leader in 2011.
His high number wasn’t due to being a pinch runner, either. Looking at Baseball-Reference.com, the 31-year-old was in only 13 games as a substitute with eight plate appearances and four stolen bases.
To put the numbers into perspective, here are the top five players since 1950 (min 300 PA):
Rickey Henderson (1982): 77%
Ron LeFlore (1980): 72%
Vince Coleman (1985): 71%
Rajai Davis (2011): 70%
Otis Nixon (1988): 70%
So what does Davis’ place in history mean for 2012? Probably not much if he isn’t playing. He may see his batting average increase to his career level (0.273), but Toronto’s outfield is crowded. The Blue Jays have their 2011 outfield mostly set with Thames, Rasmus and Bautista. Talk from the team implies that Davis may see some time in LF (Bautista at DH?).
What I would do with Davis in 2012 drafts:
1. Only draft him in a league with daily roster settings. He probably won’t get enough playing time for a league that uses weekly rosters.
2. Watch for the days he is playing and insert him if one of your other players has a rough matchup.
3. While not a huge split, the right-hander has done historically better vs LHP (0.292/0.350/0.411) than RHP (0.264/0.304/0.360). Use him against lefties if you can.
I would look to utilize him strictly as a platoon player to inflate your stolen base numbers. Take a late round flier on him and get some extra steals when the situation warrants it.
Our own Erik Hahmann pointed out some great stolen-base options earlier this week, but there are enough teams desperate for stolen bases out there that we can try a different tact here. Did you know that the easiest team to steal on is the Boston Red Sox? And the hardest is in Arizona? And that the Red Sox have allowed more than twice as many stolen bases as the Diamondbacks?
With the season winding down the type of fantasy advice people look for changes. You’re not looking to trade for an under the radar player or pick a diamond in the rough from the waiver wire. If you’re team is still in contention it’s likely you’re looking for specific stats to stream in hopes of padding your lead or catching up to your opponent.
Today we’re focusing on steals and looking at three readily available players that can help you Usain Bolt the competition.
Whether it’s beefing up for your head to head playoffs or just looking to boost yourself in a particular category as your roto season winds down, there are still guys out there on your waiver wire that can be of service to you if you dig deep enough. We usually differentiate here between regular waiver wire pieces and deep league waiver wire pieces based on ownership percentages, but at this stage of the game, the depth of your league shouldn’t matter much. If a guy can help, he can help. Here’s two to consider…
At this stage of the game, every single point matters. So much so, in fact, that the numbers become more important than the names. By that, I mean, it’s not as much about the players in your lineup as it is about the statistics on your league’s standings page.
Find the categories that are most essential to your chances at gaining ground and focus on adding players who will address those areas. This applies more to rotisserie leagues than head-to-head ones (since matchups and scoring in the latter change each week), but the point remains the same: Numbers over names.
With that in mind, here are three American League outfielders owned in less than 50% of leagues, each of whom has the ability to help your team in a specific category down the stretch.
At the MLB trade deadline, the Los Angeles Dodgers sent veteran shortstop Rafael Furcal and cash considerations to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for minor league outfielder Alex Castellanos. Tommy Rancel, over in the FanGraphs section, covered the deal when it happened, so now here at RotoGraphs, we’re going to discuss the fantasy ramifications. Read the rest of this entry »
As you’re tweaking your lineup here and there, looking for a way to steal some points from your opponents, check out how adding some stolen bases to your squad can help you out. It always seems to be a very movable category in roto leagues and an often disregarded category in head to head. Adding an extra stolen base guy can give you a nice cheap way to to boost you in the category while also helping you out in areas like runs scored and even batting average. Here’s a pair of speedsters that seem to be available in plenty of leagues. Read the rest of this entry »
Last week, we examined the fantasy fallout of Manny Ramirez’s abrupt retirement and what it meant for his current-turned-former Rays teammates. This time, let’s look at how another erstwhile big-time AL stud might impact his fellow outfield mates’ fantasy production. Except in this case, it’s a return.