Archive for Starting Pitchers

Last season began well enough for Aaron Harang.

In fact, through his first 11 starts, he was having a normal, Harang-like season. Check it out:

Harang had a 3.50 ERA, more or less what we’d expect given those peripherals. But then, Dusty Baker made an interesting decision.

On May 22, Aaron Harang made a start on normal rest. Then, on May 25, Baker brought Harang into a tie game in the 13th inning. Harang proceeded to pitch 4 shutout innings, striking out 9 and throwing 63 pitches in the process. Harang’s next start was on May 29.

Starting pitchers have been known to pitch an inning out of the bullpen between starts, but Harang threw 63 pitches – in a tie game, no less. Of course, Harang has had a rubber arm over the last couple of seasons, having pitched over 200 innings in three straight years. If anyone could handle the added workload, it would be Harang, right?

Apparently not.

After the bullpen appearance, Harang had a 7.31 in his next eight starts. Here are his accompanying peripherals:

His strikeout rate was approximately the same, but he walked one more batter per nine innings. His homer rate also skyrocketed. The question is: was Harang unlucky – thanks to a very-high BABIP and homer rate – or was he hurt?

Well, Harang was placed on the DL on July 9 with a strained right forearm. He was then activated on August 10. However, he struggled mightily in his first two starts, giving up a total of 16 runs in 7 1/3 innings. After that, though, Harang seemed to regain his past form. Check it out:

He posted a 2.83 ERA over these eight starts.

So what does it all mean? Well…

On the one hand, Harang’s peripherals didn’t really change too much throughout the season, even after his bullpen stint. His walk rate rose, and it’s very possible that fatigue caused him to lose control of his pitches. However, his strikeout rate remained high, and it’s possible that his high BABIP and high homer rate could be more attributed to bad luck in a small sample size rather than anything else.

On the other hand, it’s difficult to ignore the fact that Harang’s ERA changed drastically directly after his outing in the bullpen. If he did indeed lose control of his pitches (as evidenced by the higher walk rate), it’s not difficult to surmise that he was also grooving an inordinate amount of pitches, leading to a higher BABIP and higher homer rate.

After he returned from the DL, his first two starts were awful, but this can be very easily be attributed to the fact that he wasn’t yet fully healthy. In his final eight starts, Harang more-or-less returned to “normal” form. His BABIP was actually a little low, and his strikeout rate was lower than before. Again, it’s difficult to tell whether this is significant or the product of a small sample size.

If I had to guess, I’d say that the bullpen stint somehow screwed Harang up. It’s very possible that his 7.31 ERA was inflated partly due to bad luck, but it’s also clear that Harang was not as good of a pitcher after the bullpen outing as he was beforehand. It’s also clear that Harang was pretty much back to “normal” after returning from the DL (well, after his first two starts). This is further evidence for Harang actually being injured.

For next year, it’s fair to expect Harang to return to his normal numbers – his numbers before 2008. That means that he has the potential to be very undervalued going into drafts next year. There is, of course, a caveat: namely, the possibility that Harang is not fully healthy. This seems unlikely, however, given his performance over the final eight starts of the season.

Aaron Harang plays for a mediocre team, in front of a poor defense, in a hitter’s park. However, he is also a very good pitcher who is likely to put up numbers that are much better than his 2008 line. It’s reasonable to expect an ERA between 3.50 and 4, and a strikeout rate somewhere around 8 batters per nine. Harang is probably going to be undervalued in your league, and is an excellent sleeper.

Entering the 2008 season, right-hander Brad Penny likely had free agent riches in his sights. The 30 year-old had posted a sub-four Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) for five straight seasons, including a 2007 campaign in which he topped the 200-inning mark for the first time since 2001. With another strong showing Penny figured to snag a pretty penny, securing a long-term pact paying an annual salary in the eight-figure range.

Those hopes of a lavish multi-year deal never materialized, however, as Penny dealt with a shoulder injury that placed him on the 15-day DL three separate times: “mild tendinitis” in June, “shoulder inflammation” in August, and “shoulder soreness” in August.

In between that trio of trips to the DL, a less-than optimal Penny turned in his worst season as a professional. Tossing just 94.2 frames, the 2006 NL All-Star starter punched out less than five batters per nine innings while walking about four per nine. Combined with an elevated home run rate (1.24 per nine), Penny posted a 5.27 FIP. Penny’s fastball velocity was down a tick from 2007 (from 93.4 MPH to 92.4 MPH), and the speed of his heater jumped around quite a bit during the summer months as he tried to pitch through his shoulder ailment:

June: 94.1 MPH
(DL stint)
August: 89.6 MPH
(DL stint)
September: 92.8 MPH
(DL stint)

Take a look at these clips from the Baseball-Intellect website. One shows Penny unleashing a 97 MPH fastball in a May 13th start versus Milwaukee, while the other shows Brad more or less lobbing a 90 MPH pitch August 8th against San Francisco. Cleary, Penny’s shoulder was bothering him a great deal. It’s difficult to argue with R.J. Anderson, who suggests that it would have been in the best interests of both the free-agent-to-be and the Dodgers for Penny to have shut it down far earlier than he did.

Penny was forced to take a one-year deal following his injury-wracked season, inking a one-year, $5 million contract with the Red Sox that includes an additional $3 million in possible incentives. Let’s assume for the time being that Penny reports to spring training in good health. The 6-4, 260 pounder has never posted ace-like peripherals, but his league-average K rate (6.36 K/9), decent control (2.93 BB/9) and mild groundball tendencies (48.7 GB% in ’07, 49.1% in ’08) have allowed him to post a very useful 3.95 career FIP.

Marcel projects a 4.11 FIP out of Penny in 127 innings, meaning that Brad would surrender about 58 runs. A replacement-level starter (with a 5.50 FIP) would give up about 77.6 runs in the same number of innings. Penny’s 19.6 runs above replacement (1.96 WAR) would make him worth about $9.4 million, using a scale of $4.8 million per WAR. In other words, Brad would be well worth his salary, even if he didn’t hit the 160-inning threshold that kickstarts his incentive money. Bringing in a solid starter like Penny on a one-year deal was a shrewd move by an organization that makes plenty of intelligent decisions. If Penny makes a full season’s worth of starts, he’ll be an outright steal.

If Penny’s shoulder heals, he could be a nice bargain on draft day. Some owners might have a sour taste in their mouths from his 2008 work, but the big righty is certainly worth tracking during the offseason. If the medical reports sound promising, give some thought to picking up a Penny for your fantasy squad.

Jarrod Washburn is not a guy I’ve wanted on my fantasy teams over the last few years. But this year, that could change.

Let’s be clear: Washburn is not a particularly good pitcher. However, Washburn has been remarkably consistent in his time with the Mariners: since 2006, he’s posted FIPs of 4.78, 4.77 and 4.72. His fastball averages less than 88 MPH, and he only managed to strike out 5.3 batters per nine innings last year. So why am I writing about him?

Because Washburn could have some value this year, thanks to the defense behind him.

Washburn is a fly ball pitcher who allows a lot of balls in play. He doesn’t strike many batters out, and he relies on his defense to turn batted balls into outs. Washburn’s career BABIP is .282, lower than many pitchers’ BABIPs. However, in his career Washburn has allowed 43.7% of his balls in play to be fly balls, as compared to only 36.3% grounders. By their nature, fly balls become outs more often than grounders, perhaps explaining Washburn’s relative success on balls in play.

Last year, however, Washburn’s BABIP was .309 – the highest BABIP in Washburn’s career. In fact, 2008 was the only year in his 11-year career in which his BABIP has been over .300. That’s amazing. Thing is, the high BABIP appears to be a fluke – related more to the Mariners’s poor defense last year, rather than a decline in Washburn’s skills. Washburn’s strikeout rate was actually higher last year than it was in 2005 and 2006, and was only slightly lower than his 2007 rate. He also managed to lower his walk rate from 2007, and batters made contact approximately as often as they had in the past. In other words, Washburn may not be particularly good, but he’s not getting much worse, either.

And he has reason to be optimistic for 2009. Earlier this offseason, the Mariners completed a three-way trade in which they acquired Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez – two of the best defensive outfielders in the game. Gutierrez will likely be the starting center fielder, with Ichiro in right. Left field is undecided at the moment, but the Mariners have shown a dedication to improving their defense. Washburn should benefit from regression to the mean, as his .309 BABIP from last year was an outlier in his career. But he should benefit further from an improved Mariners defense – especially outfield defense – that turns more balls in play into outs. If the Mariners defense allows Washburn to improve upon his career BABIP by 20 points, he’d have a .262 BABIP, which would lead to an ERA probably around 4.00 or 4.20.

Even with a strikeout rate around five batters per nine and a woeful offense preventing him from getting many wins, Jarrod Washburn could have some value in large mixed leagues or AL Only leagues thanks to a potentially stellar ERA and WHIP. He’s certainly no fantasy ace, but as a late round pickup in a deep league, you could do a lot worse than Jarrod Washburn.

Many fantasy players like to avoid starting pitchers with low strikeout rates, and rightly so. Often times, strikeout rate goes hand in hand with success as a starting pitcher. Many high strikeout pitchers also accumulate many wins and have low ERA and WHIPs. However, you don’t have to strike lots of batters out in order to be a successful pitcher at the major league level.

Baseball abounds with relatively low-risk players who are very solid pitchers but don’t get many strikeouts. Names like Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Sonnanstine, Derek Lowe, Aaron Cook, Kevin Slowey, and others don’t inspire visions of leading a fantasy team to the promised land, but they are often the best values in drafts. While they may not get that many strikeouts, these pitchers are likely to have a lot of wins, as well as low ERAs and WHIPs. Furthermore, because they are relatively low risk, they are still going to get their share of strikeouts. Over 180 innings, a pitcher who strikes out only 5.5 batters per nine innings will rack up 110 strikeouts. Sure, Joba Chamberlain might average a strikeout per inning, but if Joba only pitches 100 innings…well, you can do the math.

That’s not to say that Andy Sonnanstine is better than Joba Chamberlain; rather, it’s to say that Sonnanstine has more value than Joba, because of their respective draft positions. By drafting Sonnanstine you are sacrificing somewhat on strikeouts, but you’re enhancing your team because you are able to get Sonnanstine relatively late in the draft, allowing your team to stock up in something else (Power? Saves? Steals?) earlier.

Of course, it would be no good to come in last in your league in strikeouts, but this is unlikely even if you have several Andy Sonnanstines on your team. Remember, guy like Sonnanstine will still get a fair share of strikeouts simply because they are likely to pitch a lot of innings; furthermore, other teams are likely to experience injury and performance issues that will keep their pitchers’ strikeout totals down.

Also, there is nothing wrong with drafting some high strikeout pitchers as well. The best fantasy teams are a mix of risk and reward. Just keep in mind that while they may not be particularly sexy, there are some very valuable low strikeout pitchers who can fill out your staff for a relatively low price.

Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Brandon Webb generates ground balls. A lot of them. In fact, the University of Kentucky product lapped the competition in terms of burning worms in 2008, with a 3.15 GB/FB ratio (second place went to free agent Derek Lowe, at a distant 2.63 to one).

With so many of Webb’s offerings being pounded into the infield dirt, the D-Backs’ co-ace will often require the services of his infielders to convert those grounders into outs. Let’s take a look at Arizona’s projected starting infield for the 2009 season, with their 2008 and career UZR/150 ratings at their respective positions:

1B Conor Jackson: 4.4 UZR/150 in ’08, -1.6 UZR/150 career
2B Felipe Lopez: -7.9 UZR/150 in ’08, -4.4 UZR/150 career
SS Stephen Drew: -14.5 UZR/150 in ’08, -13.5 UZR/150 career
3B Mark Reynolds: -2.2 UZR/150 in ’08, -4.6 UZR/150 career

Yuck. Arizona’s projected infield rated as 20.2 runs below average per 150 games last season, and the career totals are even worse: -24.1 runs below per 150 contests. If these guys continue to flash leaden leather, Webb might not be on speaking terms with his infielders by May. Granted, the 29 year-old posted a .297 BABIP with Drew and Reynolds on the left side of the infield and Jackson occasionally at first in 2008, but it’s still disconcerting that such a groundball-centric pitcher will reside in front of four below-average defenders.

Over the past few weeks, I have discussed the importance of context when evaluating pitchers. Whether it be Texas’ similarly lagging fielding prowess or Seattle’s new incredibly rangy outfield, the quality of the defenders behind a pitcher can make a noticeable impact on his performance. When a batter puts the ball in play, the pitcher is fairly dependent upon his fielders to convert that ball into an out. When those defenders struggle to do so, that pitcher is going to surrender some hits and runs that he really shouldn’t have.

Luckily with Webb, the pitcher in question here also possesses excellent controllable skills that aren’t subject to the caprices of his defense. With a 2.82 K/BB ratio and few home runs surrendered, Webb posted a 3.28 FIP this past season. Webb is undoubtedly an excellent starter deserving of a high draft pick. But, it is worth noting that the fielders behind him aren’t especially adept and might cause his stat line to look a little worse than it should.

From the moment that Ian Snell (then named Ian Oquendo) was selected as a 26th-round afterthought in the 2000 amateur draft, he has had to fight an uphill battle to prove himself a capable major league starter. The Delaware native always possessed a live arm, but his diminutive stature (5-11, 198) gave scouts pause, and led many to predict that he would reside in the bullpen long-term. As Baseball America’s 2004 prospect handbook summed it up, “with his slight stature and two above-average pitches, he could wind up as a closer in the big leagues.”

As he breezed through the Pittsburgh farm system, however, Snell’s performance as a starter was too good to ignore. With 8.6 K’s per nine innings and 2.3 BB/9, Snell established himself as one of the most promising arms in the organization at the same time that high-pedigreed hurlers such as Bobby Bradley, John Van Benschoten and Sean Burnett fell by the wayside.

After a fairly promising 2006 season (4.58 FIP, 2.28 K/BB), Snell appeared to break through in 2007. His strikeout rate fell somewhat (from 8.18 in ’06 to 7.66 in ’07), but he trimmed his walks from 3.58 per nine innings to 2.94. He also made better use of his full arsenal of pitches, as worked in an 84 MPH changeup 10.2% of the time to supplement his 92 MPH fastball (52.5%) and 84 MPH slider (37.3%). With his HR/FB rate regressing from an astronomical 14.9% to 9.6%, Snell’s HR/9 figure dropped from 1.4 in 2006 to 0.95 in 2007. His FIP came in at a tidy 4.01.

After crossing the 200-inning threshold in ’07 and seemingly solidifying himself as the club’s ace, Snell did not fare near as well in 2008, as his ERA ballooned from 3.76 to 5.42.

While there some concerns that we’ll get to later, let’s focus on the positives first. Snell’s ERA was cringe-worthy, but it certainly overstated the extent of his struggles. His K rate remained relatively stable (7.39) and his FIP was a little worse than league-average, at 4.57. As Peter chronicled earlier, Snell was one of many Pittsburgh hurlers who suffered in front of an iron-gloved Bucco defense (19th in UZR at -17.8, 28th in Defensive Efficiency). Snell’s .358 BABIP was the second-highest mark among all qualified starters- only Kevin Millwood (.366) fared worse on balls put in play.

So, Snell wasn’t near as bad as his ERA or won-loss record would have you believe. Still, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t some negatives to take out of his season. His walk rate jumped significantly, up to 4.87 per nine innings. Not surprisingly, Snell’s first-pitch strike percentage fell from 63.7% in 2007 to 56.5% in 2008; that put him in the same range as Livan Hernandez and Daniel Cabrera.

Generally speaking, a shoulder injury for a pitcher may materialize in decreased velocity, while an elbow malady is characterized by loss of control. Snell appears to fit that line of thought, as he hit the DL in late June with a strained right elbow. I’m not going to attempt to predict Snell’s health going forward, but it seems plausible that he could cut his free passes to a more tolerable level if the elbow is healed up.

Snell’s pitch selection also shifted in ’08, and not necessarily for the better . He increased his fastball usage nearly ten percent (from 52.5% to 62.2%), while still relying heavily on his slider (32.7%). Snell cut the use of his changeup in half, using the pitch only 5.1% of the time this past season.

One criticism that Snell faced as he climbed the ladder was his lack of a third offering. The 27 year-old uses his changeup reluctantly, instead preferring to focus on his fastball/slider mix against both lefties and righties. Without a pitch that reliably moves away from opposite-handed batters, Snell as had his share of problems with left-handed hitters. They hit him relatively hard in 2007 (.284/.353/.447), but 2008 was much worse: southpaws facing Snell transformed into Joe Mauer, scorching him to the tune of .314/.415/.498. Snell’s change doesn’t look like a bad pitch, dropping about four inches more in the zone than his fastball (the league average is about 2.9). Perhaps Snell doesn’t trust his changeup, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt to mix a few more in there against the lefties.

Going forward, Snell will almost certainly post a much lower ERA in 2009. Even if he were to continue walking a bunch of batters, his peripherals suggest he would be a league-average starter. If his elbow is mended and his control improves, he could compile another FIP in the low fours. That’s not headline-grabbing, but it’s certainly useful. However, if Snell is going to take the next step, he’s going to have to find a way to keep those pesky southpaws at bay.

Last season, John Maine started out well: through his first 18 innings, he posted a 3.99 ERA and 93/49 K/BB ratio in 103 innings. Not amazing, but certainly solid, and well within the realm of expectations for Maine.

But then things went south. In his last six starts, he had a 4.83 ERA and 29/18 K/BB ratio in 31 innings. But Maine had a legitimate excuse: he was diagnosed with a strained rotator cuff. The Mets placed him on the DL retroactive to July 29, and although he did return at the end of the season, his velocity was notably down.

In fact, Maine’s velocity was going down even before he was placed on the DL. In his start on July 5, Maine’s fastball averaged 93.58 MPH. It then averaged 91.97 MPH and 92.71 MPH in his next two starts. However, on July 23 his fastball averaged 91.83 MPH and on July 28, it averaged only 90.84 MPH. Maine clearly was pitching through problems – problems that affected his performance and his statistics.

Maine underwent surgery to remove a bone spur from his shoulder after the season, and is expected to be fully healthy for spring training. If so, Maine may be underrated this year. Yes, everyone knows that he was hurt last year, but others in your league may not realize that he was pitching hurt for some of the season, making his overall numbers look worse than they otherwise would.

Marcel predicts Maine’s ERA to be 3.96, and this seems reasonable, although somewhat pessimistic. Maine is a fly ball pitcher who will allow his share of homers, but plays in a park that favors fly ball pitchers and has Carlos Beltran patrolling center field. He will get a solid amount of strikeouts (his career K rate is 7.71 per nine) and should get a decent amount of wins, thanks to an above-average offense and (supposedly) improved bullpen. Maine isn’t a fantasy ace, but he could be a solid – and undervalued – member of your pitching staff.

Chien-Ming Wang may not get many strikeouts, but could be a nice addition to your fantasy team.

Wang was limited to 95 innings last year thanks to an injury he sustained running the bases in 2008. The good news for the future is that Wang’s injury had nothing to do with pitching, making it less likely that Wang will experience injury issues in 2009. And, when healthy, Wang is an excellent pitcher.

Wang relies on a devastating 92 MPH sinker that allows him to induce ground balls on 60% of his balls in play in his career. Wang relies on his often-suspect infield defense (having Jeter and Cano fielding so many grounders can’t be good for your health, let alone your ERA), but keeps the ball in the ballpark: he’s allowed only 34 homers in 628 career innings.

Additionally, Wang has slowly increased the number of swinging strikes he’s induced. In his injury-shortened 2008 season, batters swung and missed at 7.2% of his pitches. In 2007 that number was 6.9%, and was 6.6% and 5.2% in 2006 and 2005, respectively. Wang’s strikeout rate has slowly increased as well: last year he struck out 5.12 batters per nine, after getting 4.70 Ks per nine in 2006 and less than 4 per nine in 2006 and 2005. This is not a high rate, but Wang induces so many grounders that he doesn’t need to strike many hitters out.

And although strikeouts are a category in fantasy, Wang still may not be appropriately valued in your fantasy league. Subjectively, it appears that Wang’s secondary pitches – especially his slider – have improved, and the numbers back this up, as Wang has consistently struck out more batters. If he pitches 200 innings with 5.5 strikeouts per nine next year, he’ll accumulate 122 strikeouts. Wang is likely to keep his ERA under four – perhaps even 3.50 or under – and should rack up the wins thanks to a solid (if somewhat overrated) offense. There’s a lot of fantasy value in a pitcher like that – especially a rather low-risk pitcher like Wang – even if he doesn’t strike out a batter every inning.

Wang is not a fantasy ace, but should an excellent member of your team, especially if you can draft him in the late middle rounds.

Over the past few years, Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci has compiled a list of starting pitchers that he considers to be particularly risky heading into the next season. Verducci’s list is based on the concept that a young starter (age 25 or below) is at an increased risk of injury if he surpasses his innings pitched total from the previous season by 30 frames or more. As he so often does, Verducci summed up his reasoning in a very articulate manner:

“Why can’t they throw 200 innings? Simply put, they’re not conditioned for it yet. It’s like training for a marathon. You need to build stamina incrementally. The unofficial industry standard is that no young pitcher should throw more than 30 more innings than he did the previous season. It’s a general rule of thumb, and one I’ve been tracking for about a decade. When teams violate the incremental safeguard, it’s amazing how often they pay for it.”

Just as a runner must build up strength and endurance over a gradual period of time, a hurler must incrementally boost his workload, lest his arm suffer the pitching equivalent of a cold-turkey 26.2 mile run. The list of talented youngsters who have seemingly fallen victim to the “Verducci Effect” is both sizable and significant. Among those who crossed the 30+ threshold in 2005 and 2006 were Francisco Liriano, Gustavo Chacin, Adam Loewen, Scott Mathieson and Anibal Sanchez. Here’s a look at the list of seven guys that Verducci identified as high-risk entering 2008:

Ian Kennedy, +61 IP

5.45 FIP, 26 BB in 39.2 major league innings, DL stint for a strained right lat.

Fausto Carmona, +56.1 IP

0.83 K/BB ratio in 120.2 IP, DL stint for a left hip strain.

Ubaldo Jimenez, +41.2 IP

No problems here– Jimenez posted a very nice 3.83 FIP.

Tom Gorzelanny, +40.1 IP

Gorzelanny was an absolute mess this past season, with a 6.35 FIP, a demotion to the minors and a DL stint for a left middle finger injury.

Dustin McGowan, +38.2 IP

McGowan’s ascent was curtailed by a shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery.

Chad Gaudin, +36 IP

Gaudin posted a pretty solid 4.14 FIP, but he did take a trip to the DL in the spring for a nagging hip injury.

Yovani Gallardo, +33 IP

Gallardo also suffered a serious injury in ’08, but his was of the traumatic sort, as he tore his ACL covering first base at Wrigley Field. It’s hard to pin that on anything but bad luck.

So, out of the seven identified, five served DL stints that seem related to the increased workload, and Kennedy, Carmona and Gorzelanny endured nightmarish seasons. Jimenez was really the only one to come out unscathed, though Gallardo’s health issues certainly seem unrelated.

With the rule of 30 in mind, let’s take a look at a preliminary list of young starters who fall under the “Verducci Effect” for 2009. For the purposes of this list, I excluded pitchers who missed all of 2007 due to injury (such as Liriano), and included only those pitchers who will be 25 or younger on opening day 2009. I wanted to compile a list of guys pitching both seasons, who saw a big jump in IP from ’07 to ’08.

There is also some debate as to how much minor league innings should be “weighed” in the equation. There are some who feel that minor league frames are not as high stress as major league innings, but I have decided to count them as equal here.

Dana Eveland (age 25), +151.1 IP

Eveland tossed just 37.2 innings in 2007 while in the D-Backs’ minor league system, as he dealt with a finger injury. The hefty lefty appeared to tire down the stretch, as he surrendered a .311/.379/.468 line after the all-star break.

Gregory Reynolds
(23), +74.2 IP

Also known as “the guy picked before Evan Longoria“, this Stanford product already hit the minor league DL with a shoulder impingement in July.

Gregory Smith (24, soon 25), +74.1 IP

There are already plenty of reasons to expect this LSU product to trend downward next season, and the big increase in innings won’t help.

Charlie Morton (25), +74 IP

Jon Lester (25), +74 IP

Lester is admittedly a unique case, and it’s hard to say whether or not he faces the same injury risk as some of these other guys or not. For what it’s worth, Lester was sitting 90-91 MPH with his fastball in the early months of the season, but was firing 94 MPH bullets by the time September rolled around.

Cole Hamels (24), +72.1 IP

Hamels was no stranger to injury coming up through the Phillies’ farm system, and a whopping 35 postseason innings gave him a combined 262.1 frames tossed during the 2008 season. He’s incredibly gifted, but his health does bear watching.

Chad Billingsley (24), +65.1 IP

Chad beat the rule of 30 to the punch, as he unfortunately slipped on some ice and broke his leg outside of his Pennsylvania home (which begs the question, if you work in LA, why live in Pennsylvania?)

John Danks (23), +62.2 IP

Danks took some huge strides forward in 2008, but he’ll have to combat a big innings increase to maintain his status as one of the better starters in the American League.

Matt Harrison (23), +51 IP

Tim Lincecum (24), +49.2 IP

Giants manager Bruce Bochy did not seem to use much discretion with Lincecum in ’08, bringing him back into a game after a lengthy rain delay and allowing him to toss at least 110 pitches in 18 of his 33 starts. We’ve all heard the arguments of Lincecum’s “rubber arm” and freakishness, but Tim racked up the highest Pitcher Abuse Points score by a wide margin, and accumulated such a lofty workload for a cellar-dweller. From a cost/benefit standpoint, was it really worth pushing the guy so hard?

Mike Pelfrey (24, soon 25), +48 IP

Pelfrey improved his control in ’08 (2.87 BB/9), though the 6-7 righty continued to post finesse-type strikeout numbers (4.93 per nine innings). Is a fastball-centric pitcher like Pelfrey (81.2% usage), who rarely snaps off a slider or a curve, less likely to feel the effects of a big increase in innings? Thoughts?

Peter will have more on Pelfrey in the coming days.

Clayton Kershaw (20, soon 21), +47 IP

The Dodgers have tried to be careful with their big southpaw who comes equipped with mid-90’s gas and a devastating slow curve, but Kershaw still crossed the innings threshold by a decent margin. Considering his age and enormous importance to the franchise, expect Kershaw to be kept on a pretty strict innings limit in 2009.

Jair Jurrjens (22, soon 23), +45 IP

Jurrjens was solid for Atlanta this past season. He did have some shoulder issues in the minors, however, and tossed nearly 190 frames in 2008.

Matt Garza (25), +38.1 IP

Garza’s 25 postseason innings pushed him into Verducci territory.

Brandon Morrow (24), +32 IP

Because he was strangely pigeonholed in the bullpen for the better part of two seasons, this 2006 first-rounder has not been given the opportunity to gradually build up his arm strength in the minors. The Mariners began to transition Morrow into a starter last season, and new management seems to be going ahead with the plan. If Morrow begins the season in the rotation, he is going to soar past the 95.1 innings he threw in 2008. This situation calls to mind the Joba Chamberlain conundrum from last season. Of course, none of this would be an issue had Morrow been given the development time and innings necessary to incrementally increase his workload.

That’s the list: 15 in all. It’s important to point out that this is just one piece of evidence to take into account when evaluating a starter’s expected level of performance in the coming season. This is not a hard and fast rule; there are exceptions. However, it is an interesting and useful tool, as the risk of injury does seem to climb as a young starter gets beyond that 30 inning rule. By no means should you shy away from some of the top-tier performers on this list. Just keep in mind that their respective workloads did increase greatly, and it wouldn’t be unprecedented if injury or attrition set in for some of these guys in 2009.

Great things were expected of Gavin Floyd when the Philadelphia Phillies popped him with the fourth overall selection in the 2001 amateur draft. A strapping 6-5, 230 pounder, Floyd showcased mid-90’s heat while dominating the competition at Mount Saint Joseph High in Baltimore.

Floyd performed fairly well as he moved up the organizational ladder, punching out about seven batters per nine innings and issuing around 3 BB/9. However, he failed to impress in three different trials with the Phillies from 2004 to 2006. In 108.2 combined innings, Floyd allowed 90 runs and 20 home runs, and he appeared to be stagnating at AAA as well. He posted a grisly 6.36 RA at Scranton during that three-year period, with 7.1 K/9 and 4 BB/9.

The Phillies jumped at the opportunity to convert the club’s disappointing prospect into a proven and productive commodity, shipping Floyd and southpaw Gio Gonzalez to the Chicago White Sox for right-hander Freddy Garcia in December of 2006.

Neither team got much of a major-league return on the trade in 2007, as Garcia’s shoulder gave out and Floyd posted a 5.27 ERA in 70 innings for the White Sox, serving up an incredible 17 long balls. However, 2008 brought much improved results for the Sox and Floyd, as the big righty tossed 206.1 frames, posting a 3.84 ERA and 17 wins. So, has the soon-to-be 26 year-old finally broken out, making good on those lofty expectations that led to a $4.2 million bonus from the Fightin’ Phils back in ’01?

Unfortunately, there are a number of reasons to think that Floyd’s 2008 campaign was more the product of good fortune than great pitching. Floyd’s ERA was a shiny 3.84, but he surrendered 19 unearned runs- pitchers bear some responsibility for those tallies as well. His strikeout rate was pretty ordinary, as he punched out 6.32 batters per nine innings, while serving out 3.05 free passes per nine. With a 2.07 K/BB ratio that was actually below the 2.12 AL average, Floyd’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) was a mundane 4.77. The 0.93 run difference between his ERA and FIP was the fifth-largest among all starters. Floyd’s .268 BABIP is going to rise, and with it, so will his ERA.

While Floyd’s 91 MPH heater, mid-80’s slider, high-70’s curve and low-80’s change worked pretty well against right-handed batters (.226/.279/.380), he continued to surrendered hits aplenty to southpaws (.259/.340/.485). In his major league career, Gavin has been pummeled by lefties to the tune of a .280/.364/.515 line. Floyd’s diverse repertoire (a five-pitch mix when you include his four-seam fastball and sinker) gives him plenty of weapons to go after righties, with a couple of different breaking balls at his disposal. However, those breakers don’t work near as well moving down and in to lefties, and Floyd has always been reticent to throw his changeup (6 percent of the time during his career).

In addition to his issues with left-handers, there’s also the matter of Floyd being a flyball pitcher (41.2 GB% in ’08) in a park that harshly penalizes such tendencies. According to the 2009 Bill James Handbook, U.S. Cellular Field has increased HR production by 28 percent over the past three seasons. Even with a league average HR/FB rate last season (11.8%), Floyd coughed up 30 long balls, or 1.31 per nine innings. Flyball pitcher + The Cell = fireworks.

Floyd’s prospect pedigree, superficial improvement in ERA and big win total might trick some people into believing that he has taken major strides toward becoming an ace-level starter. However, there just isn’t any evidence to suggest that’s really the case. Floyd is worth selecting in the later portion of most drafts, but don’t be the guy that takes him really high and then spends the season wondering why his ERA went up by a run.