Archive for Starting Pitchers

Right-hander James McDonald earned a spot in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ 2009 starting rotation with a modest showing this spring. He allowed 21 hits in and eight walks in 19.2 innings of work. McDonald also struck out 13 batters. The club has good pitching depth and the rookie will slot in behind Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw.

Claudio Vargas dropped out of consideration for the No. 5 spot after allowing 25 hits in 15.1 innings. He also suffered an injury to his arm and will likely begin the year on the DL. Veteran Eric Milton, working his way back from Tommy John surgery, allowed 38 hits in 19.2 innings of work and will start the season in the minors.

McDonald has much more talent than his numbers would suggest. The 24-year-old hurler spent time in Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors in 2008. He spent the majority of the year in Double-A, where he allowed 98 hits in 118.2 innings. He posted rates of 3.49 BB/9 and 8.57 K/9. In six big league innings, McDonald allowed five hits and one walk, to go along with two strikeouts. He also pitched very well in the playoffs. McDonald’s biggest problem in his regular season debut was that he induced groundballs at a clip of just 15%. Thankfully, the Dodgers team plays in a spacious park.

He’s not overpowering, but the starter-turned-hitter-turned-starter-again has a solid repertoire, which includes a fastball that sits between 89-91 mph and can touch 94 mph. McDonald also has a plus curveball and a good change-up. His control is improving, as is his command.

The right-hander is not as flashy as 2008 rookie Kershaw, but McDonald should be a little more consistent at this point. He probably shouldn’t top 170 innings pitched in 2009, after throwing fewer than 150 innings last season (not including the playoffs). McDonald has a good shot at providing 10 wins for a solid LA club, as well as 120-130 strikeouts. Last season, the club got six wins and a 6.27 ERA out of its No. 5 starter (Brad Penny).

Yesterday, we put the twice-traded Ross Ohlendorf under the microscope, noting that his low-90’s heat and slider are likely best suited for the bullpen. Today, let’s look at Pittsburgh’s other prospect named McCutchen: Daniel McCutchen.

Like Ohlendorf, McCutchen is a 26 year-old college product. The Yankees selected the Oklahoma Sooner in the 13th round of the 2006 amateur draft. That the 6-2, 195 pounder actually signed on the dotted line was something of a miracle: he was drafted three other times before he became a member of the Bronx Bombers.

Baseball America’s 2006 draft coverage noted that “scouts are becoming a bit jaded about righthander Daniel McCutchen, who turned down the Yankees as a 47th-round pick out of Grayson County (Texas) Community College in 2003, the Devil Rays as a 29th-rounder in 2004 and the Cardinals as a 12th-rounder in 2005.” Talk about playing hard-to-get.

McCutchen’s debut was further stalled by a 50-game suspension for a positive drug test from a prescription taken for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder while attending Oklahoma. He threw 29 innings in 2007, mostly in the South Atlantic League, with a 29/6 K/BB ratio. The righty just snuck on to BA’s top 30 list for the Yankees, placing 30th.

Finally donning a professional uni over a full season in 2007, McCutchen showed polish, if not power at High-A Tampa. In 101 innings pitched, he turned in a 3.52 FIP, with about 6 K’s per nine and 1.9 BB/9. Promoted to AA Trenton during the later portion of the year, he lowered his FIP to 3.03 in 41 frames of work. McCutchen Mcwhiffed 7.9 batters per nine innings while issuing 2.63 BB/9. BA took note of his stellar pitching, bumping McCutchen up to 14th on the Yankees’ prospect list.

BA noted that he could reach the low-90’s with his four-seam fastball, sat 89-91 with the two-seamer and backed the heaters up with a plus overhand curve and a decent changeup. However, they also said that “some in the organization want to channel his aggressiveness into the bullpen, believing his stuff will play up as was the case with Ross Ohlendorf.”

McCutchen trekked back to Trenton to kick off 2008, where he posted rates of 8.83 K/9, 3.06 BB/9 with a 3.29 FIP in 53 innings. Sent to AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre after easing through the Eastern League, he displayed impressive strikeout and walk ratios (7.42 K/9, 1.41 BB/9), but McCutchen was often bombed as a Red Baron, surrendering 1.28 homers per nine innings with a 3.91 FIP.

Sent to Pittsburgh as part of the swag for Nady and Marte, McCutchen was assigned to AAA Indianapolis for the remainder of the year. His K’s and walks were nearly identical with his new organization (7.69 K/9, 1.31 BB/9 in 48 IP). However, his gopher ball issue grew far worse, with an astounding 12 big-flys leaving the yard (2.25 HR/9) to bloat his FIP to 5.30.

As a strike-tosser with decent velocity and a good curve, Daniel McCutchen has his virtues. Still, the homer-happy tendencies and flyball orientation (career 41.6 GB% in the minors) give one pause. Most major league equivalents and 2009 projections feel that McCutchen will post an adequate K/BB ratio, but that he’ll also dish out dingers as if they were going out of style:

Minor League Splits 2008 MLE: 166 IP, 5.82 FIP, 6.41 K/9, 2.44 BB/9, 2.06 HR/9
CHONE 2009 Projection: 120 IP, 4.88 FIP 6.6 K/9, 2.85 BB/9, 1.50 HR/9
Zips ’09 Projection: 114.2 IP, 5.41 FIP, 5.42 K/9, 2.28 BB/9, 1.88 HR/9

Given the current state of affairs in Pittsburgh’s rotation, simply having most appendages and converting oxygen into CO2 gives you a puncher’s chance at seeing time in the Bucs’ starting five. McCutchen will likely get a shot sometime this summer. It’s possible that he becomes a Paul Byrd-type pitcher, able to paint the corners enough to post league-average production and overcome a tendency to cough up a few too many homers.

For an organization that has made a concerted effort to develop young pitching talent, the Pittsburgh Pirates have little to show for it. Barring a miracle rivaling the whole…turning water into wine deal, the Bucs will break the most ignoble record in baseball this year, passing the 1933-1948 Phillies for the most consecutive losing seasons in history.

The path to 17 years of futility necessarily entails a confluence of poor decisions, but an alarming number of high-round pitching prospects have flamed out spectacularly. We know that pitchers are in general a more volatile lot than hitters, but this list is very telling.

Paul Maholm stands happily as an exception to the rule, but Kris Benson, Bobby Bradley, Sean Burnett, John Van Benschoten and Bryan Bullington have more scars than major league victories.

The major league staff offers little comfort either. Maholm is a solid mid-rotation starter, but Ian Snell and especially Tom Gorzelanny regressed in 2008. Zach Duke is a pitch-to-contact lefty on a team with serious issues converting balls put in play into outs.

Noting a severe lack of depth, GM Neal Huntington acquired three-fifths of the New York Yankees’ AAA rotation last July in the Nady/Marte swap: Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens and Daniel McCutchen. Let’s meet the trio, starting with Ohlendorf.

For a 2004 fourth-round pick with 69 big league frames to his name, Ohlendorf has certainly had an eventful career. Originally popped out of Princeton by the Diamondbacks, the big right-hander was shipped to the Yankees as part of the Randy Johnson barter in January of 2007 and was again on the move at least year’s trade dealine.

The strapping 6-4, 235 pounder looks like a power pitcher, and he can indeed dial up his fastball to the 93-94 MPH range when needed, while supplementing the gas with a low-80’s slider. While the stuff suggests potential dominance, Ohlendorf’s K rate in the minors (7.4 per nine innings) is more sturdy than flashy. Combine that with above-average control (2.3 BB/9), however, and Ohlendorf starts to look pretty interesting.

While fairing quite well at the upper levels of the minors (including a 117/37 K/BB in 140.1 IP at AAA), Ohlendorf has posted a 5.01 FIP in the big leagues. He has missed some bats (7.57 K/9), but has also been a bit too liberal with the base on balls (4.3 BB/9) and homers (1.43 per nine).

The 26 year-old is currently locked in to the fourth slot in an adrift Pittsburgh rotation, but it remains to be seen whether or not Ohlendorf might project better as a two-pitch hurler out of the ‘pen (a role he experimented with at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in ’07 and with the Bombers last season). He rarely utilizes his low-80’s changeup (thrown 6.5% in the majors), which might explain why southpaw hitters have gone all Chipper Jones against him in an admittedly small sample: .359/.428/.608 in 173 PA.

Of course, having two offerings of note gives the Ivy Leaguer two more weapons than some among a collection of C/C+ prospects and waiver-wire flotsam tossing their respective hats into the starting picture.

In terms of 2009 projections, PECOTA is none too impressed (5.01 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 in 110 IP, with the majority of those innings coming in relief). CHONE is bullish on Ohlendorf the reliever, with a 3.65 FIP, 8.02 K/9 and 2.95 BB/9 in 64 innings out of the ‘pen. Bill James has Ohlendorf making 13 starts while doing his best Yoslan Herrera (who?) impersonation (5.66 ERA), though his FIP is a less-grisly 4.47. Zips also has Ross with an ERA (5.60) far surpassing his FIP (4.42) while splitting his time between the rotation and relief work.

The reason? Pittsburgh again projects to be among the worst defensive squads in the majors. Pirate leather took on plenty of water in ’08, ranking 28th in the majors in Defensive Efficiency, and nearly the same cast of statuesque characters returns this spring. A guy with ordinary whiff rates like Ohlendorf is going to be subject to the quality of his fielders, an unpleasant thought given the personnel on hand. James projects a .355 BABIP for Ohlendorf, while Zips comes in at .344.

The Pirates will understandably give Ohlendorf the opportunity to prove one way or another which role he should fill at the major league level. This is, after all, a club that gave 5 starts in 2008 to the guy with the highest ERA in major league history.

Until the Rinku and Dinesh era commences, the Bucs will try to find some useful low-cost arms at the back of the rotation and hope that a likely reliever like Ohlendorf can find something that dips or fades against southpaws. In this organization, Million Dollar Arms are in short supply.

It should be pretty clear to just about everyone that the Washington Nationals are not going to be a good club in 2009. The team might win a few more games this year thanks to the addition of players such as Adam Dunn, Scott Olsen, and Josh Willingham, but there are still a lot of holes remaining and depth continues to be an issue.

The starting rotation will have an interesting look to it this season, though, as the team recently announced that top pitching prospect Jordan Zimmermann and former Giants prospect Shairon Martis have both made the club as starters. The pair joins starters John Lannan, Olsen, and Daniel Cabrera in making up the starting five to begin the 2009 season. Another promising young starter, Collin Balester, will begin the year in Triple-A Syracuse.

Zimmermann, 22, has flown through the minor leagues after being a second-round draft pick of the Nationals out of a small college in 2007. The organization has deemed him big-league ready after just 37 regular season pro appearances. Last season in Double-A, Zimmermann allowed just 89 hits in 106.2 innings of work, while posting rates of 3.29 BB/9 and 8.69 K/9. This spring, he threw up some flashy numbers with 20 strikeouts in 14 innings of work. Zimmermann allowed just 13 hits, two walks and zero home runs. He can dial his fastball up to 95 mph, although it sits in the low 90s with good sink. He also features a slider, curveball and change-up.

Martis, a Curacao native, was obtained from San Francisco in 2006 for veteran reliever Mike Stanton. Only 22 (tomorrow, March 30), the right-hander received attention after winning 14 games in High-A ball in 2007. He played at three levels in 2008, which included five games (four starts) for the Nationals. In those games, Martis allowed 18 hits in 20.2 innings and posted rates of 5.23 BB/9 and 10.02 K/9. He pitched well at both Double-A and Triple-A. This spring, Martis earned his opportunity to begin the season in the Majors by allowing just 10 hits and four walks in 19 innings. He struck out 11. Martis’ repertoire includes a low-90s fastball, a plus change-up, a curveball and a slider.

Both pitchers should be on a tight pitch count this season given their youth and relatively inexperience, which will prevent them from putting up huge numbers. As mentioned, 2009 will likely be a lost season for the Nationals in terms of wins and a playoff berth, so the team might as well take some chances on some young pitching. It could benefit the club down the line. It’s also nice to see a club resist the temptation to go cheap by delaying prospects’ arbitration clock (I’m talking to you, Baltimore and Tampa Bay).

Cincinnati Reds right-hander/quasi clean-up hitter Micah Owings would like to be recognized more for his accomplishments on the hill than for his abnormal slugging exploits in the batter’s box. On that front, Tulane’s former two-way threat has some work to do. In fact, Owings’ career OPS+ of 126 (based off a Vladimir Guerrero-like .319/.355/.552 in 126 PA) eclipses his career ERA+ (94) by a considerable margin. Can Owings make his mark on the mound, or is he destined to be viewed as a Brooks Kieschnick reincarnate?

By the time Owings signed on the dotted line with the Arizona Diamondbacks following his third-round selection in the 2005 draft, he was intimately familiar with the process. A highly-touted prep prospect from Georgia, Micah was plucked by the Colorado Rockies in the second round back in 2002, but declined to sign and instead attended Georgia Tech. Owings was again available as a draft-eligible sophomore (the Cubs came calling in round 19), but the club couldn’t meet his demands: with eligibility remaining, Owings had leverage. He transferred to Tulane for his junior season, where he led the Green Wave in dingers and pitching whiffs.

Much like the ill-fated John Van Benschoten four years before him, Owings’ future (pitcher? first baseman?) was subject to scouting debate. As Baseball America noted in its draft coverage, the consensus pictured the 6-5, 225 pounder as a strike-tossing reliever instead of a bomb-hitting position player:

“Clubs continue to prefer him as a pitcher. His aggressive approach plays better on the mound than at the plate, where he’s prone to strikeouts and causes scouts to question how he’d fare against better pitching… He goes right after hitters on the mound with an 89-91 mph fastball that tops out at 95 and a changeup that can be a plus pitch at times…Owings throws a below-average slider and may have to scrap it for a cutter. He doesn’t have a dominant out pitch and projects more as a set-up man with a bulldog attitude.”

Because of his polish, Owings made a brief pit stop in the High-A California League as a reliever to begin his career (30/4 K/BB in 22 innings). BA noted that while in the ‘pen, Owings’ velocity soared to the 94-97 MPH range. However, the D-Backs were intent on keeping him in the rotation, concluding that a league-average or better starter is more scarce than a quality reliever.

Owings made his full-season debut at AA Tennessee in 2006. In 74.1 frames for the Smokies, he smoked 69 batters (8.35 K/9) while playing to his reputation by painting the corners (2.06 BB/9). Owings’ FIP was an impressive 2.97.

He ascended to AAA Tucson during the second half of the year, where he compiled a fair 3.74 FIP. His ratios fell off (6.26 K/9, 3.49 BB/9 in 87.2 IP), but it’s hard to complain when your third-rounder from the previous year is on the cusp of the major leagues.

That work in ’06 is practically all we have on Owings in the minors. In Arizona’s rotation from the get-go in 2007, Owings posted a 4.30 ERA in 152.2 innings. His FIP (4.81) was less impressive: he struck out 6.25 per nine and kept his walks at an adequate level (2.95 BB/9), but the flyball-centric hurler was burned by the gopher ball (1.18 HR/9) and benefitted somewhat from a .280 BABIP. Owings’ 90 MPH fastball and 83 MPH slider held same-side batters quiet (.238/.311/.375), but a lefties didn’t blink when he pulled the string on an inconsistent changeup, and they managed a healthy .267/.340/.497 line.

Owings got off to a good start in 2008, posting a 28/9 K/BB and a .195/.276/.363 opponent line in April. However, things would quickly go south from there. He was adequate in May (33/11 K/BB, .265/.319/.424), but hitters turned into Nick Johnson against Owings in June, with a .337/.400/.480 line. He would scarcely pitch again after that point, making two starts and four relief appearances in July with grisly results (11.37 ERA). He was optioned to the minors in late July, only to be shipped to Cincy as a PTBNL in the Adam Dunn proceedings (his acquisition was likely delayed due to concern over the state of his shoulder).

Ironically, Owings made his Reds debut against Arizona in mid-September, as a pinch hitter. He smacked an RBI double in the 10th to best the D-Backs 3-2 (ah, sweet revenge). So much for being remembered as a pitcher.

Overall, Owings’ work in ’08 wasn’t too terribly different from his rookie showing. His ERA was over a run and a half higher, but his FIP was actually slightly lower than ’07, with a 4.73 mark. He both whiffed and walked more batters, with 7.48 K/9 and 3.53 BB/9. Homers continued to be a bugaboo, with 1.2 per nine surrendered.

Apparently healthy, Owings has turned in a solid performance this spring. While the relative importance of that performance can be debated, it does matter in the sense that it factors heavily into Dusty Baker’s choice for Cincinnati’s fifth starter. The Owings that we have seen thus fair is essentially a good fifth starter with an interesting novelty act at the plate. Such a level may be all he ever ascends to, but that still entails more fame than is bestowed upon your average final cog in the rotation.

The Oakland Athletics’ rotation is in between phases. The vaunted “Big Three” of Hudson, Zito and Mulder has long since become a relic of the past, and the latest touted trio of Haren, Harden and Blanton was converted into copious amounts of young, cost-controlled talent. A new wave of high-ceiling arms, led by the one-two punch of Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, will soon dominate the headlines.

Until then, the A’s will hope to receive yeoman’s work from second-tier hurlers such as Sean Gallagher, Dana Eveland and Gio Gonzalez. There’s another name penciled into the rotation who could provide quality work despite a lack of press clippings: Dallas Braden.

The southpaw stayed on the draft board until the 24th round back in 2004, considered nothing more than an organizational filler. Scouts questioned how his wacky repertoire would play in pro ball- Braden was known for a screwball-like pitch that gave hitters fits, but the offering was supported only by high-80’s heat, a flat slider and an average changeup.

Undeterred by a lack of scouting love, Braden tore up less advanced batters between Vancouver (Northwest League) and Kane County (A-Ball) in 2004. In 42 IP, he posted a 63/9 K/BB ratio while surrendering 37 hits. That small sample was not enough to change opinions, though, as Braden went into the 2005 season outside of Baseball America’s top 30 Oakland prospects.

Braden received more of a challenge in ’05, as he was deployed to the High-A California League (where pitching prospects go to die). He continued to whiff opposing hitters like some Randy Johnson doppelganger, with 64 K’s in and 11 walks in 43.2 frames (2.68 ERA). Bumped to the Texas League for the second half, the screwballer did not dominate, but held his own with a 3.90 ERA in 97 frames. Braden posted rates of 6.6 K/9 and 2.96 BB/9.

The Texas Tech alum put his name on the prospect map, coming in at number 19 in BA’s Oakland rankings. Said BA: “he gets hitters out with guile, command and a trick pitch.” Things weren’t all sunshine and rainbows, however, as Braden was shut down in August with a tired arm.

That “tired arm” would turn out to be more nefarious, as Braden went under the knife for shoulder surgery during the offseason. After making so much progress and fighting his perceived limitations in ’05, the lefty suffered what was essentially a lost season. He tossed only 37 innings between rookie ball, High-A and Double-A, posting a 55/8 K/BB ratio. Already something of a red-headed stepchild in the scouting community, Braden fell off of the prospect radar yet again.

Beginning the ’07 campaign back at AA Midland, Braden quickly earned a promotion to Sacramento after posting a 13/3 K/BB ratio in 12 IP to start the year. With the River Cats (a dynastic AAA affiliate, if such an entity exists), Braden fooled 10.41 batters per nine innings with 2.53 BB/9. His FIP was a sparkling 2.64 in 64 frames.

The 6-1, 195 pounder also saw time with the A’s, at times filling in for the vastly talented but notoriously brittle Rich Harden in the rotation. Braden’s ERA (6.72) in 20 appearances (14 starts) made him look like the AL’s answer to John Van Benschoten, but the underlying results weren’t that bad. He posted a 4.50 FIP in 72.1 IP with 6.84 K/9 and 3.24 BB/9, but Braden was felled by a .355 BABIP and a 56.4% strand rate.

Back with Sacramento in 2008, Braden turned in ace-like numbers despite a “soft, softer, softest” arsenal of pitches. With 9.11 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9, he compiled a 3.50 FIP in 53.1 IP (HR were a slight problem, with 1.18 per nine). Braden was called up to Oakland on several occasions, making 19 appearances (10 starts) in total. Featuring 88 MPH cheese, a 78 MPH slider, a mid-70’s change and perhaps an occasional screwball, Braden managed a 4.57 FIP in 71.2 innings (5.15 K/9, 3.14 BB/9).

As a soft-tosser with flyball tendencies (career 37.7 GB%), Braden has little star potential. However, he’s in the right venue for a hurler who puts the ball in the air frequently (The Coliseum has depressed HR production by 13% over the past three years, according to the Bill James Handbook) and he’ll be in the rotation from the outset in 2009. CHONE forecasts a 4.24 FIP for Braden, with 6.79 K/9 and 3 BB/9. Most A’s fans and prospect mavens are anxiously awaiting the debuts of Cahill and Anderson, and deservedly so. But this former Red Raider is worth a look as he holds down the fort in the meantime.

The Washington Nationals and right-hander Shawn Hill had just about the most acrimonious off-season of any team/player combo. Hill, a sinker/slider hurler with a fair amount of talent (but also an unnerving propensity to end up in the trainer’s room or on the surgeon’s table), was eligible for arbitration.

The 27 year-old requested $775,000, while the Nats countered with $500K. Despite the relatively small divide, Washington decided to take its oft-injured starter to arbitration (the only other players reaching an arbitration hearing were Dioner Navarro and Dan Uggla). The Nats did what they do best, and lost the hearing. Hill was set to receive his $775K (in the arbitration process, either that player’s figure or the team’s figure is chosen; there’s no middle ground).

However, the Nats decided to release Hill recently instead of letting him compete in a dilapidated rotation that’s resting its fortune on Daniel Cabrera and Scott Olsen realizing that “hey, weren’t we supposed to be good or something?” Washington figures to save a very minimal amount of cash through Hill’s unceremonious boot: about $250K, once one considers termination pay as well as the money that will be spent on whomever occupies the roster spot.

If you need some War and Peace– sized reading material, take a look at Hill’s medical history:

Jul 1, 2006: Right elbow injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 29).
May 14, 2007: Elbow injury, 15-day DL.
Sep 24, 2007: Forearm injury, sidelined indefinitely.
Mar 20, 2008: Forearm injury, 15-day DL.
May 27, 2008: Missed 7 games (right elbow inflammation).
May 19, 2008: Right elbow inflammation, day-to-day.
Jun 26, 2008: Forearm injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 25th).

Okay, you get the point: Hill is the right-handed Mike Hampton, with the DNA of a Nomar Garciaparra/Nick Johnson love child. However, when Hill has taken the hill for the Expos/Nationals/glorified AAA affiliate, he’s been pretty effective. Equipped with an oft-utilized 90 MPH sinker (thrown 73.4% of the time; the pitch gets over 10 inches of movement in on the hands of righty batters), Hill has posted a career 4.11 FIP. He keeps the ball on the ground (50.1 GB%) while displaying adequate peripherals (5.67 K/9, 2.92 BB/9). Southpaws often get a good look at his offerings (.302/.355/.475 career), but same-side batters have generally been punchless (.271/.335/.394).

Inked to a minor-league deal by the Padres, Hill enters just about the best situation a starting pitcher could hope for. Petco Park is, of course, pitching Nirvana, suppressing runs by a full 20% over the past three seasons according to the Bill James Handbook.

In addition, the San Diego rotation is anything but settled. Jake Peavy headlines a cast of suspect characters, with Chris Young (whose extreme fly-balling ways are perfectly suited to the ballpark) and Mariners castoff Cha Seung Baek following. Former Giant Kevin Correia (5.10 FIP in 2008) and low-upside college arms Joshua B Geer and Wade Leblanc are other possibilities. Last we heard, Mark Prior is attempting to locate “The Island” from Lost, in hopes of time-jumping back to 2003.

The chances of Shawn Hill throwing a full complement of starts for the Padres are between slim and none, but he could provide some above league-average innings at a bargain-basement price. Hill is a zero-risk signing for the Padres, as well as fantasy owners. No one is going to spend a pick on a guy capable of injuring himself in the process of being activated from the DL, but he’s worth taking a look at if you find yourself in a pinch for pitching.

Being a second-tier young arm in the Tampa Bay Rays organization is a sure-fire path to anonymity. Everywhere you look, there’s a potential all-star taking the bump. There’s the Shields/Kazmir/Garza three-headed monster at the big league level (with everyone’s favorite southpaw, David Price, waiting in the wings).

In the upper minors, there’s Wade Davis and his low-90’s/hammer curve mix, the rehabbing Jacob McGee and the impressive track record (if ordinary stuff) of Mitch Talbot. And don’t look now, but there’s another wave of absurdly gifted hurlers in the offing, led by Jeremy Hellickson, Nick Barnese, Matt Moore and Kyle Lobstein.

As such, it’s very easy for good-not-great pitchers to get lost in the shuffle (see Sonnanstine, Andy). Two guys with little fanfare who might get the chance to crack Tampa’s rotation out of spring training are righties Jeffrey Niemann and Jason Hammel.

If it feels as though Niemann has been kicking around prospect charts for half a decade, well, that’s because he has. The 6-9, 280 pound behemoth was supposed to become one of those untouchable building blocks of a contending Rays club when he was selected 4th overall in the 2004 draft, but he has compiled all of 16 frames in the bigs to this point. The $5.2 million man, signed to a major league contract, is now optionless to boot.

Niemann has dealt with shoulder maladies (including surgery during the ’05 offseason), but he’s never had much problem fooling batters with a low-to-mid 90’s heater and an occasionally plus slider. The former Owl has punched out over a hitter per inning in the minors (9.12 K/9). His control is just so-so, with 3.4 BB/9, and he once again battled a shoulder injury last April after a brief stint in Tampa.

Durability is an issue moving forward- the 26 year-old has never cracked the 150-inning mark in a season, and his stabbing arm action makes more than a few people nervous. Baseball America also notes that he “requires more time than most pitchers to get loose”, so the ‘pen might not be some panacea for his shoulder woes. Despite his warts, Niemann would rank as one of the better pitching prospects in some organizations.

Hammel is not a prospect anymore, but the 2002 10th-round pick has yet to really define a role on the club, pinballing back and forth between starting and relieving over the past three seasons. Hammel hasn’t exactly lit it up in either spot, with FIP’s of 5.26, 5.05 and 5.25 from 2006 to 2008.

His deep repertoire (low-90’s fastball, hard mid-80’s slider, mid-70’s curve and mid-80’s changeup) worked wonders at AAA (8.3 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 in 259 IP), but his lack out of an out-pitch harms him at the highest level. The big boys haven’t fished at Hammel’s off-speed stuff as much (6.08 K/9, 22.3 O-Swing%), and he does not have the razor-sharp control (4.17 BB/9) or groundball tendencies (43.8 GB%) to stick his head out above a sea of other pitching talent.

That’s not to say Hammel can’t be useful in the back end of a rotation- he’s just in the wrong organization. There’s little distinguishing a guy like Hammel from, say, Pittsburgh’s Jeff Karstens, save for opportunity. It’s just that Hammel must wage war with Price to secure a spot, while Karstens takes on the Virgil Vasquez’s of the world.

What should we make of Adam Miller?

The right-handed pitching prospect has been frustrating the Cleveland Indians organization and its fans since he was selected out of a Texas high school with the 31st overall selection in the 2003 draft. Now 24, he has yet to make his MLB debut despite entering his seventh pro season (Top high-school prospects usually take about four years to sniff the Majors).

Miller has lasted a full season in the minors only once – in 2006 and he won 15 games in Double-A with a 2.75 ERA (3.03 FIP), 129 hits allowed in 153.2 innings, as well as rates of 2.52 BB/9 and 9.20 K/9. The next two seasons at Triple-A, he managed a total of just 25 games (17 starts) and allowed 94 hits in 94 innings. The latest injury problem for Miller has been a tendon in a finger on his pitching hand and it’s already caused him issues this spring, which is worrisome to say the least.

Miller entered the spring with a very good shot of making the team as a reliever, which would have theoretically helped his chances of staying healthy. He’s probably Triple-A bound for the third straight season now, but he could make his MLB debut before long. Cleveland has pretty good depth in the starting rotation, although few can match Miller’s potential – as his stuff is still solid with a fastball that can touch the upper 90s with a dominating slider. The health of two fellow injury-prone starters, Carl Pavano and Anthony Reyes, could eventually open up a spot for Miller. New closer Kerry Wood, formerly of the Cubs, is also an injury risk, which could create a hole in the bullpen.

From a fantasy perspective, Miller will likely be extremely frustrating – as a starter or reliever. He has the stuff to dominate – and he could be an impact arm during the 2009 season at the Major League level. But he could also break your heart if you rely on him too heavily.

Spring training just does not seem to agree with Angels starting pitchers. Last year, the top two projected arms in the rotation (John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar) were felled by health issues. While ace Lackey (triceps) returned in mid-May and turned in another solid campaign, number two man Escobar (shoulder) never threw a pitch for the big league club in 2008.

Unfortunately, a health issue has once again knocked out LAA’s projected number two starter, as Ervin Santana will begin the 2009 campaign on the disabled list with a sprained medial collateral ligament (also known as UCL, the stabilizing ligament in the elbow made famous by Tommy John Surgery). The timing is especially disappointing for both the Angels and fantasy owners, as Santana had just turned in a highly promising season (4.55 K/BB ratio, 3.30 FIP) an inked a four-year, $30M contract extension during the offseason.

With Santana shelved, the Angels must now select two starters from a group that includes Dustin Moseley, Shane Loux and Nicholas Adenhart.

Moseley began the 2008 season as Los Angeles’ fifth starter, making five early season starts. In all, the right-hander made 10 starts for the club as well as two relief appearances. The results look downright ugly (6.79 ERA), but an unangelic .379 BABIP did him no favors. Moseley’s FIP was a more tolerable 4.52 in 50.1 innings of work, as he posted rates of 6.62 K/9 and 3.58 BB/9.

His work in AAA, however, inspires little confidence. Moseley struck out 6.4 batters per nine innings and walked 2.62, but he surrendered nearly 1.8 HR/9. The 6-4, 190 pounder was once considered a gifted prospect (the Reds drafted him in the first round back in 2000), but he’s definitely more of a finesse pitcher these days. The 27 year-old features an 88-90 MPH fastball, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup.

Loux is another low-octane right-hander. The 6-2, 235 pounder, formerly a Tigers prospect, went five years between big league performances. After last reaching the majors in 2003, Loux tossed 16 frames for the Angels last season. Loux spent some time with the Royals in ’06 and was released by the Mariners prior to 2007, at which point he contemplated hanging up his cleats. While donning the tools of ignorance a pitching prospect in an indoor facility, Loux switched places with the guy for a few pitches and impressed the facility owner. The owner referred Loux to an Angels scout. Returning to the mound in ’08, Loux posted rates of 5.02 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9 with AAA Salt Lake City. The 29 year-old kills some worms (51.8 GB% in AAA) with a 90 MPH sinker and a hard mid-80’s slider.

Adenhart entered the 2008 season as the pride and joy of the Angels’ player development system. The lanky right-hander was considered a premier prospect in the 2004 amateur draft, but an elbow injury caused him to fall to the 14th round. Undeterred, the Angels ponied up $710K for Adenhart’s services. Possessing a low-90’s heater, a sharp curveball and a changeup, Adenhart got his career off to a great start. After punching out over a batter per inning in rookie ball in 2005, he split the ’06 season between Low-A and High-A, whiffing around eight hitters per nine innings while issuing around 2.5 walks per nine.

Bumped up to AA for the 2007 campaign, Adenhart threw 153 innings with rates of 6.82 K/9 and 3.82 BB/9. He got off to a superficially impressive start in 2008 at AAA and received a call-up to the majors, but he was beaten like a drum in three starts: 12 IP, 18 hits, 12 runs, 4/13 K/BB ratio. Returned to Salt Lake, Adenhart struck out an adequate 6.81 per nine but his control took a step backward (4.64 BB/9). Despite his struggles, the 22 year-old still has plenty of believers in the scouting community (Baseball America named him LAA’s #1 prospect during the offseason). However, Adenhart’s turbulent big league introduction and erratic work at AAA suggest that he’s not big league ready.