On the surface, Manny Parra had a decent season for the Brewers in 2008. He posted an okay-but-below-average 4.39 ERA. He racked up 147 strikeouts in 165 innings, but only managed 10 wins and posted a 1.54 WHIP. However, beneath the surface we can see that Parra actually pitched pretty well, and is a good bet to improve in 2009.

First of all, Parra was hindered by some bad luck in 2008. His .337 BABIP was sixth highest among starting pitchers, and his 13.5% HR/FB was higher than league average as well. Both of these numbers figure to regress to the mean in 2009.

Furthermore, Parra showed an above-average ability to induce swinging strikes, an excellent sign for the young southpaw. Batters swung and missed at 9.3% of Parra’s pitches – above league average of 7.8% for starters.

He also induced ground balls on 51.6% of his balls in play, and limited fly balls to only 26.6% of his balls in play. This bodes quite well for him, as ground balls rarely become extra base hits and cannot become homers (plus, they can become double plays). Generally, lots of grounders + lots of strikeouts = lots of success.

Additionally, Parra has a track record of success in the minors. In 2007 he was excellent, accumulating 106 strikeouts and only 33 walks in 106 innings across double- and triple-A. Furthermore, he allowed only three homers in that time.

On the downside, Parra walked far too many hitters – 75, to be precise. He threw 39.3% of his pitches for balls – well above league average of 36.5%. However, given his track record, there is reason to believe that Parra will be able to improve upon this. While he was always somewhat wild in the minors, his career minor league walk rate is “only” 2.45 batters per nine. Furthermore, if Parra is able to throw fewer balls next year, it will also allow him to pitch deeper into games, allowing him more opportunities to strike batters out and pick up wins.

Even if Parra throws fewer balls next year, his relatively high walk total may prevent him from being much of an asset in WHIP. However, he will strike a lot of batters out, and the Brewers figure to give him a decent amount of run support, allowing him to pick up a fair amount of wins.

Parra is exactly the type of pitcher you should be targeting for 2009. He is a good bet for improvement for two reasons: he suffered from bad luck in 2008 – a high HR/FB and a very-high BABIP – so he figures to improve upon his ERA simply due to regression to the mean; and he is also a good bet to improve in his actual skill, due to his track record and age.

A combination of improvement and regression should lead to Manny Parra being a steal in 2009.

Fellow Rays pitcher James Shields may have the nickname “Big Game James,” but Matt Garza is more deserving of the moniker, having absolutely dominated the Red Sox in game seven of the ALCS. Garza’s impressive performance capped an amazing mid-season turnaround, and suggests that he could be on the brink of stardom.

Let’s go back to June 8. Catcher Dioner Navarro visited Garza on the mound during his start in Texas, and the two men began shouting at each other. The altercation continued in the dugout after Garza was removed. He didn’t pitch well that day, and he left the start with a 4.38. However, he had actually been a lot worse than his ERA suggested: in 61 innings to that point, he had an abysmal 34/25 K/BB ratio and had allowed eight homers. He had thrown 60.5% of his pitches for strikes and had gotten swinging strikes on 5.7% of his pitches.

But then something changed.

Notably, Garza saw sported psychologist Ken Ravizza after the game (and later credited him in an interview after game seven of the ALCS). And the results were hard to argue with.

Since June 8, Garza pitched 123 innings (not including the playoffs), and posted a 3.37 ERA – a full run lower than his previous ERA. But remember, Garza’s previous ERA had been unjustly low. Since June 7, though, Garza was legitimately excellent: he posted a 94/34 K/BB ratio while allowing 11 homers. He threw 64.4% of his pitches for strikes, and induced swinging strikes on 8.6% of his pitches. Furthermore, Garza didn’t benefit from a tremendous amount of luck: he allowed a .271 BABIP during this time (low, but remember: the Rays had one of the best defenses in the league), and he allowed 7.7% of his fly balls to become homers.

While his homer rate my rise somewhat (league average is somewhere around 11%), it’s not unreasonable to assume that Garza is likely to maintain his post-June 8 success in 2009. He proved he could handle the big stage at Fenway Park, and he proved he could pitch very well during the last three-and-a-half months of the regular season.

We shall see if he can pitch well over an entire season, but it’s not unreasonable to expect an ERA below 3.50, coupled with ~170 strikeouts and 15-20 wins next season. And, given just how good Garza’s stuff is (anyone who doesn’t realize how good his stuff is should go watch game seven again) – as well as the fact that the Rays should once again have an excellent defense and be one of the league’s best teams – it’s conceivable that Garza could develop further and become a true fantasy ace.

The 2008 Oakland Athletics were just bursting at the seams with intriguing pitching storylines. Aside from jettisoning three-fifths of its 2007 rotation and the bullpen developments of a little-known submariner and a well-pedigreed flame-thrower, the A’s also oversaw the successful transition of a bullpen lifer into a starting stalwart. Justin Duchscherer, a 31 year-old who had started all of 5 games in the majors and hadn’t been taken a regular turn in a rotation since 2003 with AAA Sacramento, managed to post a 2.67 WPA/LI in 2008, 12th-best among all major league starters.

As a middle man for the A’s over the 2003-2007 seasons, Duchscherer struck out 7.4 batters per nine innings while also being stingy with the walks (2.42 BB/9). While “The Duke” has a fastball that wouldn’t get him noticed in a high school game (85.9 MPH in ’08), he was always noted for possessing one of the more diverse arsenals among relievers. While most ‘pen arms rely predominantly on two pitches, Duchscherer throws a fastball, cutter, slider, curveball and a changeup. Perhaps intrigued by his solid peripherals and his unusually deep repertoire, Oakland decided to give him a spin in the starting five this past season. The timing seemed a bit peculiar, however, as Duchscherer had just missed the majority of the 2007 season after undergoing hip surgery.

In 141.2 IP, Duchscherer posted a sparkling 2.54 ERA, while posting a WHIP of exactly 1. His control remained stellar, as he issued just 2.16 walks per nine innings. “The Duke” used his full spread of pitches, throwing his fastball just 43.7% overall. He mixed in heavy doses of his 81.7 MPH cutter (29.9%) and his big-breaking 69.9 MPH curveball (24.3%), while also giving hitters an occasional 81.2 MPH slider (1.3%) and an 80.2 MPH changeup (0.8%).

While Duchscherer’s K rate was adequate (6.04) and he limited base runners reaching via walks, there was still a pretty huge discord between his actual ERA (2.54) and his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA), which was 3.69. “The Duke” benefitted from an extraordinarily low .240 BABIP, a number that will surely climb in 2009. The A’s were quite good with the leather in ’08 (ranking 4th in the majors in Defensive Efficiency, which ranks the percentage of balls put in play that are converted to outs), and McAfee Coliseum does suppress offensive production , but that .240 mark was the lowest among all starters tossing at least 140 frames. There are also some concerns about the condition of Duchscherer’s hip, as he missed half of August and all of September while dealing with the issue.

Assuming that he’s healthy, Justin Duchscherer should certainly remain on fantasy radars heading into the 2009 season. However, given his solid (but not spectacular) peripherals and his insanely low BABIP, “The Duke” will likely see his ERA rise to a level where he’s more of a useful component rather any sort of rotation front-man.

Courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, we find that Duchscherer’s most comparable player by age is Paul Byrd, another soft-tosser with a diverse repertoire who didn’t get his chance to stick in a rotation until several years into his career (in Byrd’s case, at age 28). Perhaps that’s an approximate career path for Duchscherer from this point forward: he’ll be useful, but just don’t expect another season with an ERA in the mid-two’s.

I admit it: I have a thing for unexciting pitchers. And Aaron Laffey certainly fits the bill.

But I also think that finding pitchers very late in the draft (or for very little money) who have some value is the best ticket to fantasy success. Given the inherent unpredicability of pitching, you can often find decent pitchers very late in the draft (or for very little money), allowing you to build a fantastic offensive team by picking offense with many of your high-dollar, early and mid-round picks.

Thus, while Aaron Laffey probably shouldn’t be the ace of your staff, he’s likely to be more valuable than the money you have to spend to get him, or the round in which you can draft him.

Laffey has had a stellar minor league career, although he has gone unnoticed in scouting circles thanks to his, ahem, below-average velocity. Indeed, Laffey’s fastball sits around 87 MPH. However, Laffey has survived – indeed, thrived – thanks to his ability to induce ground balls. Starting in 2005, here are Laffey’s GB percentages in the minors: 67%, 62.5%, 62.2%, and 54.4%. Oh, and Laffey is also fairly stingy with free passes, having issued 2.6 walks per nine innings in his minor league career (although this is artificially inflated by a high walk total back in 2004 – Laffey’s control has since improved).

Laffey’s high ground ball total allows him to keep the ball in the park, thus making up for his lack of strikeouts. You, as a fantasy baseball player, care more about the strikeouts, but hear me out: Laffey may be worthwhile even without a lot Ks.

Laffey had a decent debut in the majors in 2007, posting a 4.56 ERA. However, his FIP was 3.73. He started out 2008 quite well, but tired as the season progressed. He ended up with a 4.23 ERA, but a 4.88 FIP. Most of this was due to the fact that his ground ball percentage was about 10% lower in 2008 than it had been during the rest of his career. This is most likely an outlier – Laffey showed the ability to get more than 60% of his balls in play on the ground throughout his entire career, including in the majors in 2007. If he can revert back to his extreme ground-balling ways, he should benefit from an infield defense that will include Asdrubal Cabrera and may be able to keep his ERA under 4.

Once again, I don’t mean to argue that Aaron Laffey is a particularly great fantasy pitcher. But I think he can post an above-average ERA and WHIP, while perhaps getting a decent amount of wins (if the Indians are as good as I expect them to be). That’s not an ace, but that is a guy who’d make an excellent addition in a deep league, and someone who is likely to be undervalued.

Jonathan Sanchez misses a LOT of bats.

Unfortunately, sometimes that’s because he throws too many balls. But he also induces a lot of strikeouts. And he’s primed to break out in 2009.

Sanchez had an okay year in 2008, posting a 5.01 ERA. He managed 157 strikeouts in only 158 innings, although this came with 75 walks and 14 homers as well.

However, Sanchez’s ERA is misleading: his 08 campaign was actually pretty good, and, more importantly, there are several signs that his 09 could be a lot better.

First of all, Sanchez was somewhat unlucky to post an ERA over 5 in 2008. His FIP was an impressive 3.85, and his tRA was 4.23 (league average is 4.77). Part of the problem was his BABIP: Sanchez allowed an inordinately high .327 BABIP this season. Additionally, Sanchez gave up an extremely high amount of hits in situations in which they scored the most runs: with runners at first and third, batters were 6-for-15; with runners at second and third, batters were 6-for-13; and with the bases loaded batters were 3-for-10 (with three walks). In those three situations, batters hit a combined .395, leading to an inordinately high number of runners scoring.

Furthermore, of the 14 homers that Sanchez allowed, only six were solo shots – despite the fact that 55% of at bats against Sanchez came with no one on base.

In other words, Sanchez gave up far more hits and homers with runners on base than he “should” have, leading to a disproportionately high number of runners who reached base coming around to score. Sure enough, his 67.5% LOB% provides further evidence of this.

On the bright side, Sanchez struck out almost a batter per inning over 158 innings – not an easy feat. Despite not throwing terribly hard (his fastball averaged 91 MPH), he showed a remarkable ability to induce swings-and-misses – in fact, batters swung and missed at 10.9% of his Sanchez’s pitches, the 9th highest total in baseball. Pitchers who induced higher rates of swings-and-misses were a who’s who of major league baseball’s best pitchers: CC Sabathia, Scott Kazmir, Ryan Dempster, Johan Santana, Cole Hamels, Edinson Volquez, and John Danks. That’s some elite company.

Certainly, Sanchez threw too many balls this year (38.6%, to be exact – league average is 36.5%), and walked too many – 4.27 per nine innings. However, starting pitchers who can get as many swings-and-misses – and, therefore, strikeouts – as Sanchez are few and far between. Sanchez’s ERA was artificially inflated by his inability to “stop the bleeding” this year – a fact that is probably borne from a combination of inexperience and bad luck. Therefore, it’s likely that Sanchez will fare better in “clutch” situations next season, thus lowering his ERA, perhaps considerably. He will almost certainly rack up a lot of strikeouts. And, if he can cut down on his walks – certainly possible – he could lower his ERA even further. However, even if Sanchez walks too many, he’ll more than make up for it with a ton of strikeouts and a respectable ERA.

*Thanks to Stat Corner for providing some of the statistics – specifically, swinging strike % and ball %.

Yovani Gallardo could be one of the biggest breakout starting pitcher candidates for 2009. The right-hander, who will be just 23 on opening day, appeared ready to assume a full-time gig at the beginning of 2008. However, injuries struck and Gallardo started just four games in the regular season for the Milwaukee Brewers. He did, though, make two appearances – including one start – in the 2008 playoffs. In those two games Gallardo allowed just four hits in seven innings of work. His control was shaky as he allowed five walks to go with four strikeouts.

During the regular season, in his four Major League starts, Gallardo allowed 22 hits in 24 innings of work. He walked eight batters and struck out 20. Three of those starts came early in the season before his injury. Only one start came before he made his playoff appearances. In that one start, he allowed one run on three hits and two walks over four innings of work. He also punched out seven. Of his first 15 pitches thrown in his first game back, Gallardo threw 13 fastballs in the 88-92 mph range and mixed in two curveballs. It wasn’t until his eighth batter in the game that the right-hander threw something other than a fastball or a curveball (It was an 85 mph slider).

In his 2007 season, when he made 20 appearance (17 starts) as a rookie, Gallardo allowed 103 hits in 110.1 innings of work. He also posted solid rates of 3.02 BB/9 and 7.50 K/9. Going forward, Gallardo should have no problems duplicating his previous successes. His 2008 injury – a torn ACL – is not likely to have major, long-term affects on his stuff, which includes a low-90s fastball, curveball, slider and change-up.

The fact that Gallardo remained effective in three appearances after missing almost the entire season speaks volumes about his potential and his make-up – especially considering all three were in high-pressure situations. He is probably not ready to assume 200 innings of work in 2009, but Gallardo should be well rested after missing so much time in 2008 (especially after throwing a career-high 188 innings as a 21-year-old in 2007).

Suffice it to say, the 2008 Detroit Tigers fell well short of expectations. While the pre-season predictions calling for 1,000 runs scored were ridiculous, Detroit’s 78-84 Pythagorean Record was legitimately disappointing. The Tigers’ offense was reasonably productive (ranking 10th in the majors in Equivalent Average), but the starting pitchers stumbled to a collective 5.03 ERA, ranking just 11th in the American League.

While the continued disappointment and injury issues concerning star-crossed righty Jeremy Bonderman got some attention, the majority will point to Justin Verlander’s campaign as the most troubling development in the Motor City during the 2008 season. Verlander’s ERA ballooned from 3.66 in ’07 to 4.84 in 2008, a hefty increase. So, was Verlander considerably worse this past season? And what can we expect from him in 2009?

To help answer these questions, let’s take a look Verlander’s peripherals and Fielding Independent ERA’s (FIP ERA) over his three full seasons in the major leagues:

2006

186 IP, 6 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, .293 BABIP, 78.3 LOB%, 4.35 FIP ERA

2007

201.2 IP, 8.17 K/9, 2.99 BB/9, .294 BABIP, 74.9 LOB%, 3.99 FIP ERA

2008

201 IP, 7.3 K/9, 3.90 BB/9, .305 BABIP, 65.4 LOB%, 4.18 FIP ERA

Verlander lost some of the K’s that he picked up in 2007 (basically splitting the difference between his K rate in ’06 and ’07) and walked nearly a batter more per nine innings, so his peripherals did slip. However, his 65.4 Left On Base % was well below the major league average (around 70-72%), which explains why his ERA was higher than it should have been given his K’s, walks and home run rate. The main thing to notice here is that his FIP ERA’s over these three years are pretty similar. Verlander’s FIP ERA in 2008 was 4.18. His career FIP ERA? 4.18. That’s certainly useful. But ace-worthy?

It’s also worth mentioning that Verlander’s fastball velocity has progressively dipped each season. It’s not as though he’s scrounging to hit 90 on the radar gun or anything, but he did lose over 1 MPH from 2007 to 2008:

Verlander’s Fastball Velocity, 2006-2008

2006: 95.1 MPH
2007: 94.8 MPH
2008: 93.6 MPH

It’s difficult to say just what sort of effect this will have on Verlander going forward, or if this trend will continue, but it’s a bit troubling for a power pitcher to lose a mile and a half off of his heat before his 26th birthday. While Verlander’s fastball has been getting slower, his changeup and curveball have actually been coming in harder:

Verlander’s Curveball and Changeup Velocity, 2006-2008

2006: Curveball (78.4 MPH) Changeup (81.8 MPH)
2007: Curveball (80.2 MPH) Changeup (82.7 MPH)
2008: Curveball (81 MPH) Changeup (83.7 MPH)

With the dip in fastball velocity and the increase of speed on both his curve and change, Verlander has less speed variance between his pitches. Here’s the difference in speed between his fastball and his secondary pitches over the past three seasons:

2006: Curveball (-16.7 MPH) Changeup (-13.3 MPH)
2007: Curveball (-14.6 MPH) Changeup (-12.1 MPH)
2008: Curveball (-12.6 MPH) Changeup (-9.9 MPH)

It’s an old baseball axiom that pitching is mostly about location and changing speeds. Verlander’s ability to change speeds has eroded by a significant margin since 2006, as his pitches are now coming in within a more limited range of speed. One would imagine that it’s harder to hit a pitcher whose fastball differs 17 MPH from his curve and 13 MPH from his change than it is to hit a guy with a 13 MPH difference with his hook and a 10 MPH difference with the changeup.

Justin Verlander is a good starting pitcher who can look absolutely unhittable at times. However, his peripheral stats and the aforementioned pitching trends suggest that he’s more of a solid starter than an unquestioned star. Verlander’s ERA should revert back to the low-4’s in 2009, but if you’re expecting ace-level production, you may be disappointed.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim lefty Joe Saunders is fresh off of the best season of his career. Given the opportunity to make 30+ starts for the first time in the majors, the Virginia Tech product posted a 3.41 ERA (8th among AL starters) and a 2.07 WPA/LI (11th). Saunders compiled a 17-7 W-L record and posted a 130 ERA+.

However, the are some reasons to expect this Hokie to decline in 2009. Saunders’ Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) was 4.36 in 2008, nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA. While his control is pretty solid (2.41 BB/9 in ’08, 2.80 BB/9 career), Saunders does not miss very many bats. He struck out just 4.68 batters per nine innings last season, down from an already tepid 5.79 K/9 in 2007. His 2008 K rate was the 10th-lowest among qualified starters. Aside from Saunders and Rockies right-hander Aaron Cook (who compensates with a ton of groundballs), no one else in the top 10 had a FIP ERA lower than 4.09, despite generally good control:

10 Lowest K Rates Among MLB Starters:

1. Livan Hernandez (3.35 K/9, 4.94 FIP ERA)
2. Aaron Cook (4.09 K/9, 3.76 FIP ERA)
3. Paul Byrd (4.1 K/9, 5.14 FIP ERA)
4. Jon Garland (4.12 K/9, 4.76 FIP ERA)
5. Zach Duke (4.23 K/9, 4.40 FIP ERA)
6. Kenny Rogers (4.25 K/9, 5.22 FIP ERA)
7. Nick Blackburn (4.47 K/9, 4.40 FIP ERA)
8. Greg Maddux (4.55 K/9, 4.09 FIP ERA)
9. Jeff Suppan (4.56 K/9, 5.51 FIP ERA)
10. Saunders (4.68 K/9, 4.36 FIP ERA)

When a pitcher compiles so few strikeouts, he is often subject to the caprices of his defense and variance (luck) on balls put in play. Some years, the ball may bounce the pitcher’s way (as it did for Saunders in 2008, who posted a very low .267 BABIP). Other times, a pitcher might not get so lucky. Take Pittsburgh’s Zach Duke, for example. Duke’s peripherals (4.23 K/9, 2.29 BB/9) were pretty similar to Saunders’, yet Duke posted a mediocre 4.82 ERA. The difference between the two? A huge gap in BABIP. While Saunders was the beneficiary of good luck on balls in play, Duke couldn’t buy an out, and had the misfortune of posting a .327 BABIP.

Saunders figures to be a decent mid-rotation starter at the major league level, a guy worth looking at in the later rounds of the draft. But don’t let the ERA and shiny W-L record fool you: Saunders is more Average Joe than Cy Young.

Cha Seung Baek may not win you any fantasy championships. But he could be an important part of a championship team.

Some people play in shallow leagues – I mean 10-team leagues, with players from both leagues and relatively few roster spots. However, many of you probably play in much deeper leagues – either you have many roster spots, or more than 10 teams, or you play in NL- or AL-only leagues (or all of the above). Therefore, I think it is important to talk about lesser-known players who may not be great, but may still be helpful. And Baek is the perfect example of such a player.

Baek’s primary selling point is that he pitches for the San Diego Padres. By default, most Padres pitchers are pretty good bets for fantasy purposes, simply because of their situation: they play half of their games in the best pitcher’s park in baseball, and they get to face weak NL West offenses in many of their starts. As long as you’re vigilant about benching a Padre starter anytime they’re pitching in Coors Field, chances are you can find some good deals in their rotation.

Baek was dealt to the Padres from the Seattle Mariners and posted a 4.62 ERA in 110 innings with his new team. Baek also had a K/BB ratio of 77/30 and allowed 12 homers.

On the surface, those are less-than-inspiring numbers, to be sure. However, Baek’s 4.06 FIP suggests that he may be on the verge of improving. Baek stranded only 67% of the runners who reached base – below league average. He also allowed homers on 9.9% of his fly balls– while this is approximately league average, it’s unlikely that this will rise, and may actually fall, thanks to spacious PETCO park.

Furthermore, Baek managed to get swinging strikes on 9% of his pitches this year – league average is just under 8% for starters. He threw balls 34.8% of the time – league average is 36.5%.

So we’re talking about a pitcher who throws fewer balls than average, gets more swinging strikes than average, and plays half of his game in a fantastic pitcher’s park (not to mention the fact that he plays in the weaker league and gets to face many weak offenses). While Cha Seung Baek probably won’t be a fantasy ace or a top-20 pitcher, he’s likely to be undervalued and an asset to your pitching staff, especially in deeper leagues.

Free-agent-to-be Andy Pettitte is 36 years old. The man who has spent 11 years of his career in pinstripes is coming off of a 2008 season in which he posted a 4.54 ERA, his highest mark since 1999. Pettitte surrendered 233 hits in 204 innings, or 10.28 per 9 frames. Those numbers suggest that Pettitte has slipped a notch or two, and is in the decline phase of his career. Something declined in the Bronx this past year, but it wasn’t Pettitte: the quality of the defense behind him is the culprit for Andy’s ascending ERA.

In terms of controllable skills, Pettitte has lost almost nothing to father time. He struck out 6.97 batters per nine innings while showing his typically-solid control, issuing 2.43 BB/9. That 2.87 K/BB ratio helped Pettitte post a 3.71 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA). The 0.84 run difference between his actual ERA (4.54) and his FIP ERA is the fifth-largest in baseball among qualified pitchers. The reason for that wide dichotomy is Andy’s Sistine Chapel-high .339 BABIP. When a hitter put the ball in play, those Yankee gloves did a very poor job of converting it into an out. The Bombers ranked 25th in the majors in Defensive Efficiency, which measures the percentage of balls put in play that are converted into outs.

There’s plenty of blame to go around, but since Pettitte posted a 1.80 GB/FB ratio in 2008 (thus giving his infield D plenty of chances), let’s start in the infield. From Bill James Online, we can take a look at John Dewan’s Plus/Minus Fielding Data. Dewan’s system rates players based on the number of plays made above/below the number that an average fielder would make. For a more complicated explanation, see Dewan’s site. By position, here are the infield’s plus/minus numbers, with their rank among that position in parentheses:

1B Jason Giambi: -18(34)
2B Robinson Cano: -16(35)
SS Derek Jeter: -12 (31) (blasphemy!)
3B Alex Rodriguez: +2(17)

Only A Rod came in with a solid rating, with Giambi, Cano and Jeter all coming in well below the major league average. Without starting a riot or beating to death a topic that has been widely discussed, it’s virtually impossible to find an objective defensive metric that rates Jeter as anything a poor-fielding major league shortstop. In fact, his -12 showing this past year was actually a major improvement from ’07 (-34). Perhaps there’s some hope of a rebound for Cano, as he posted an excellent +17 mark in 2007 (5th-best among 2B). Giambi, meanwhile, has long been an iron glove at first. But, like Pettitte, he’s a free agent after the Yankees declined his $22M option by buying him out for $5M. Perhaps the good folks in New York who sit along the first base line will no longer have to wear protective equipment to the game to shield against Giambi’s follies, as slick-fielding Mark Teixeira (+24) is a possible replacement.

While Pettitte is more of a groundball-oriented pitcher, we would be remiss if we didn’t mention the extreme difficulty that one New York outfielder had as well:

Johnny Damon: +7 in LF(10), -3 in CF
Hideki Matsui: -2 in LF
Xavier Nady: -4 in RF(22), +2 in LF
Brett Gardner: -2 in LF, +6 in CF
Melky Cabrera: +6 in CF(11)
Bobby Abreu: -24 in RF(34)

Abreu (also a free agent) showed precious little range in right field, and it’s not a one year fluke: he rated 32nd among RF in both 2006 and 2007. The soon-to-be-36 year-old remains a solid hitter, but NL teams may want to think twice before offering him a multi-year contract.

If Cano rebounds, Teixeira signs, Abreu moves on and Jeter moves off of shortstop (hey, a guy can dream, can’t he?), the Yankees could improve defensively by a significant margin. However, none of those things are guaranteed, and it’s possible that the club will be sporting little leather once again next season. Pettitte is a long-time Yankee and a former farm product, but he might do his ERA a favor by picking a less defensively-challenged team this winter.