There’s no denying Joba Chamberlain’s ability.

He posted tremendous numbers this season: in 100 innings (65 as a starter), he struck out 118, walked 39, and allowed only 5 homers, good for an ERA of 2.60 (and a FIP of 2.65). Of course, next season the Yankees plan on using him as a starter. What should you expect?

Well, in his 65 innings as a starter, Joba had a K/BB ratio of 74/25, and allowed only four homers. He has tremendous stuff and has shown the ability to maintain his stuff deep into games, suggesting that the numbers he posted during his starts this year could be indicative of his true ability. In other words: yeah, he’s this good.

Given 200 healthy innings, Joba is a decent bet to have the highest strikeout rate of any AL starter. He will probably walk a fair amount too, but will get so many strikeouts that he will limit the balls put in play, and thus limit the amount of hits he allows. Furthermore, Joba has shown the ability to induce a lot of ground balls – 52% of his balls in play were grounders this year – thereby helping him limit the amount of homers he allows. In fact, Joba’s combination of a high number of strikeouts and a high number of ground balls suggests that he may not allow more than 10-15 homers over 200 innings.
Thus, over 200 healthy innings, it’s fair to say that Joba could be one of the best pitchers in the American Leaugue – and one of the best pitchers in fantasy baseball as well. Of course, the real question is: can Joba stay healthy for 200 innings?

And the simplest answer is: probably not.

Joba pitched in 100 innings this year and 112 in 2007. He has battled numerous issues during his short professional career, and the Yankees have handled him with great care. I expect that to ease up somewhat next season. While the Yankees are unlikely to be reckless with their star righty, I think that they are going to let him loose on the AL, and basically hope he holds up. They are likely to put him in the starting rotation on opening day and keep him there fore the whole season. They will certainly monitor his health and his innings count closely, but they probably won’t be sending him to the bullpen any time soon.

It’s quite possible that Joba ends up on the DL at some point during the year – the Yankees will surely take precautionary measures if Joba feels a twinge anywhere, and a stint on the DL could also help keep his innings total under control.

Whether you should draft Joba is going to depend almost entirely on how other people value him. It’s possible that people will get enamored with his upside and ignore the significant risk, causing them to take Joba too early in drafts, or pay too much money for him. But it’s equally possible (and perhaps more likely) that the opposite happens: people think he’s simply too risky, and he slides to the middle/middle-late rounds of the draft. If this happens, you should snatch him.

You probably don’t want your pitching staff hinging on Joba Chamberlain. If you do decide to draft him, you’ll probably want to couple him with some very-low-risk, medium reward pitchers such as Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, or even a guy like Andy Sonnanstine. You want to hedge the inevitable risk associated with Joba, so that if he does get hurt you don’t have the worst pitching staff in the league. However, a pitching staff with a few low risk guys who only offer medium reward, coupled with one or two high-risk high-reward guys like Chamberlain makes a lot of sense.

I’m usually extremely wary of pitchers who are injury risks. The thing is, there are very, very few pitchers who can be as good as Joba Chamberlain is when he’s healthy. Even if Joba only pitches 120 or 140 innings this year, those innings are likely going to be so dominant as to make him quite valuable. And if he is able to approach 180 innings (or more), he could be the best pitcher in fantasy baseball. That’s a risk worth taking.

Chad Billingsley is very good.

In 200 innings in 2008, Billingsley posted a K/BB ratio of 201/80 and had a 3.14 ERA. His 3.35 FIP was 11th lowest of all starters in baseball. And he managed such a low ERA while allowing a BABIP of .313. Billingsley did have a somewhat-low HR/FB, as only 8.4% of his fly balls became homers, but this is not much lower than league average.

In addition to notching a strikeout per inning, Billingsley also managed to induce ground balls in 49% of his balls in play. This is quite a rise from 2007, when 41% of his balls in play were grounders. However, in 2006 his groundball rate was 48.2%, and it’s likely that he will be able to maintain a high GB rate in the future, even if it comes down somewhat from 49%.

Billingsley induced swinging strikes on 10.2% of his pitches, and earned called strikes on 19.3%. Billingsley’s swinging strike percentage is probably for real – he has absolutely filthy stuff. However, his high called strike percentage is somewhat surprising – league average for called strikes is 17.1%, and only ten pitchers had a higher called strike percentage than Billingsley. This is somewhat surprising, as Billingsley didn’t have good control this season, walking 80 hitters.

Thus, it’s questionable whether Billingsley can get as many called strikes next year as he did in 2008. If he gets fewer called strikes, he’s probably going to get fewer strikeouts, too.

However, even though Billingsley walked a high amount of hitters this year, he actually threw a league average amount of balls (36.3%). Thus, the high walk total is somewhat surprising, and seems likely to come down next season.

Finally, it’s worth noting that Billingsley’s innings total increased by a lot last season. In 2007 he threw 147 innings, while in 2008 he threw 212 (between the regular season and post-season). This puts him at risk for the so-called “Verducci Effect,”, named after Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci who found that young pitchers who have a big increase in innings pitched from one season to the next are at risk of injury or performance decline in the following season. Billingsley certainly fits the bill: only 23 years old, Billingsley threw 65 more innings than he did last year.

However, I believe that Billingsley may be less risky than other young pitchers. In addition to not having any injury history, Billingsley has also demonstrated the ability to withstand large – but not too large – workloads over the last few years. Thus, while Billingsley is certainly at risk of being effected by the Verducci Effect, I think his risk may not be too pronounced.

Next season, Billingsley may strike out a few less batters than he did this year, but he should be able to maintain one of the highest strikeout rates for starting pitchers. It’s reasonable to expect his walk rate to also go down, as he didn’t throw that many balls this year, despite his high amount of walks; however, his walk rate will probably remain rather high. He could give up a few less hits next year, as his .313 BABIP is likely to regress to the mean, thus helping his WHIP. Overall, Chad Billingsley has some risk of falling victim to the Verducci Effect, but has among the highest ceilings of any pitcher in fantasy baseball. He may not have the same name-recognition as some other similarly-talented pitchers, and thus has the potential to be somewhat underrated on draft day.

Cincinnati Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto created quite a stir last spring. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2004 for just $3,500, Cueto tore through the minors in short order before making a lasting first impression in the majors, punching out 18 batters in his first two starts. The 5-10, 185 pounder alternated between dominant and flammable the rest of the year, showcasing plenty of talent while also making apparent his need for a more refined approach.

After signing for .001 percent of what 2004 first-round pick Homer Bailey received, Cueto got his professional career started for the rookie-level GCL Reds in 2005. In 43 innings, Cueto posted solid peripherals (7.95 K/9, 1.67 BB/9), but his ERA was an inflated 5.02 thanks to an unusually high hit rate (10.26/9). Impressed with his work, the Reds had Cueto make one start for Sarasota of the High-A Florida State League, where he would strike out six and walk two in six frames. The Dominican was still largely unknown at this point, as the 2006 Baseball America Prospect Handbook did not rank Cueto as one of Cincinnati’s top 30 prospects and did not include him in the team’s depth chart.

In 2006, Cueto would go a long way toward making himself known to the scouting community, dominating between stops at Low-A Dayton (Midwest League) and Sarasota. In 76.1 frames at Dayton, Cueto would whiff an impressive 9.67 batters per nine innings, while allowing just 1.77 BB/9. His Nintendo-level 5.47 K/BB ratio translated to a 2.65 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA). Feeling that Low-A hitters were no match for his low-90’s heat and power slider, Cincinnati promoted Cueto to Sarasota for the second half of the season. His strikeout rate declined somewhat (8.9 K/9) and he walked more batters (3.36 BB/9), but those are still dominant numbers for a 20 year-old in advanced A-Ball, and translated to a solid 3.90 FIP ERA in 61.2 IP. Upon reaching Sarasota, Cueto began generating far more flyballs than he previously had in his career. His GB% was 54% at Dayton, but fell to 39% at Sarasota. Cueto’s flyball-centric approach would continue in the coming years, but we’ll discuss that in more depth later on.

Following the season, BA took note of Cueto’s performance in a big way, as he surged from unranked to rating as the 4th-best prospect in the Reds system. While cautioning that “Cueto’s size doesn’t lend itself to durability”, BA praised his “free and easy three-quarters delivery” that pumped fastballs reaching 96 MPH.

Cueto’s 2007 campaign would make his breakout 2006 season look downright tame by comparison, as he sprinted though three different leagues and terrorized batters at every stop. Cueto opened the season back at Sarasota, where he posted rates of 8.27 K/9 and 2.41 BB/9. His 3.43 K/BB ratio bested his 2.65 showing at High-A in 2006, and translated to a tidy 2.86 FIP ERA in 78.1 IP. Upon being bumped up to AA Chattanooga of the Southern League, Cueto would go bonkers. In 61 frames, he posted a 2.89 FIP ERA and punched out a stunning 11.36 batters per nine innings, issuing just 1.62 BB/9. Cueto’s home run rate climbed from an extremely low 0.34/9 at Sarasota to a more reasonable 0.89/9 at AA, but his 7.00 K/BB ratio made him look like the Southern League’s version of Pedro Martinez. Promoted yet again, Cueto would throw 22 innings for AAA Louisville of the International League. In his first and only taste of the IL, Cueto posted a 21/2 K/BB ratio and a 3.02 FIP ERA.

Now firmly entrenched on prospect lists everywhere, Cueto once again ranked as Cincinnati’s 4th-best farm product following the 2007 season. BA also rated him as the 34th-best overall prospect in the minors, commending Cueto for pitching “like a 10-year major league veteran, not a fresh-faced 21 year-old.” Noting his work with former Reds star Mario Soto, BA commented that Cueto’s changeup had come a long way under the tutelage of the three-time all-star. In addition, Cueto also featured a “93-94 MPH fastball that touches 96” and a “tight 83-88 MPH slider.”

Following his eye-opening, three-affiliate tour-de-force, Cueto impressed Cincinnati brass enough to win himself a rotation spot in the big leagues this past season. The 22 year-old showed the ability to miss plenty of bats, striking out 8.17 hitters per nine frames. However, his control came and went (3.52 BB/9), and he had serious trouble with the long ball, surrendering 1.5 HR/9. Cueto’s K rate was the 14th-best among all major league starters, but his home run rate was the 5th-worst in the game. Only Brandon Backe, teammate Aaron Harang, Paul Byrd and Jeff Suppan were burned by the big fly more often than Cueto.

Cueto has established himself as an extreme flyball pitcher, having generated groundballs just 38.6% of the time in Cincinnati. Unfortunately, his home ball ballpark severely punishes such tendencies. Courtesy of the 2009 Bill James Handbook, we find that Great American Ballpark had a HR Park factor of 128 between 2006 and 2008. GABP increased home run production 28% over the past three years. Suffice it to say, that does not bode well for a guy who puts the ball in the air so often.

Johnny Cueto remains an extremely talented young pitcher. His 93 MPH fastball and mid-80’s power slider can be nearly impossible to hit at times, as evidenced by his minuscule 76.9 Contact% (9th-best in baseball, sandwiched between Cole Hamels and Johan Santana). However, he may want to utilize his changeup more often in 2009, as he threw his slider over 32% of the time (the 5th-highest rate in the big leagues) while using the change just 6.7%. When he threw it, Cueto’s change was a nasty looking pitch, with horizontal movement that was identical to his fastball and a whopping 7 inches of vertical drop compared to his heater.

Cueto has the tools necessary to establish himself as one of the best starters in the big leagues. However, fantasy owners might need to experience some of his growing pains first, as he learns to use his full repertoire and limit the long-ball damage.

For years now, the Houston Astros rotation has seemingly consisted of ace right-hander Roy Oswalt and a bushel of reclamation projects. Sure, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens passed through the neighborhood, but their presence was short-lived. For the most part, Houston has filled out spots two through five with forgettable names such as Brian Moehler, Chris Sampson, Brandon Backe, Woody Williams and Shawn Chacon. I mean, the club gave four starts to Runelvys Hernandez (nearly a win below average in only 19.1 innings), for goodness sakes. Oswalt (3.80 Fielding Independent ERA in 2008) is still going strong, but believe it or not, he was probably Houston’s second-best starter this past season. Lefty Wandy Rodriguez took a major step forward in 2008, pitching brilliantly in between two DL stints for groin and oblique injuries.

A few years back, Rodriguez looked like another Astros pitcher who could be thrown into the pile labeled “not Roy Oswalt.” Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 1999, Rodriguez compiled solid minor league numbers (3.72 ERA, 7.21 K/9, 3.07 BB/9), but his high-80’s heat and big-breaking curve were often launched into orbit during his first few seasons in the big leagues. Rodriguez posted a -2.25 WPA/LI in 2005 and “improved” to -2.00 in 2006. He struck out about six batters and walked near four per nine innings, uninspiring peripherals that led to a FIP ERA in the neighborhood of five. Wandy seemed to establish himself as a guy who would be about a half run better than a replacement-level starter, and at 28, he didn’t figure to improve all that much in the coming years.

However, instead of posting Moehler-ish numbers again in 2007, Rodriguez improved across the board. His strikeout rate jumped to 7.78 per nine innings, and he issued 3.05 BB/9, a slight drop from his minor league walk rate. In addition to sharpening his controllable skills, Rodriguez fared a little better in the capricious departments of the stat sheet. His BABIP dropped from an unlucky .325 in 2006 to .305 in ’07, and his 10.1 HR/FB% was much lower than his 11.9% mark in 2006 and whopping 14.8% figure in 2005. Wandy’s K/BB rate jumped from 1.56 in ’06 to 2.55 in ’07, and his FIP ERA lowered to 4.18.

Rodriguez did deal with a couple of medical issues in 2008, but when he took the mound, he was nothing short of excellent. His K rate climbed yet again, all the way up to 8.58 per nine innings. Wandy also showed slightly better control, with 2.88 BB/9. His FIP ERA was cut to 3.62, besting Oswalt. To give you an idea of where Rodriguez placed among his fellow starters, here are his ranks in several important categories (minimum 130 IP):

K/9: 13th
K/BB: 24th
FIP ERA: 24th

In the 25 starts that he made, Rodriguez pitched like one of the best 30 starters in the game. In other words, he pitched like an ace.

So, how has Rodriguez gone from back-of-the-rotation fodder to one of the more productive starters in the NL? The answer appears to lie in his curveball, a mid-70’s breaker with a ton of movement. Rodriguez has increased his usage of the curve from 21.4% of his total pitches in 2006 to 29.9% in 2008, and for good reason. By looking at Wandy’s pitch F/X data from Josh Kalk’s blog, we see that his curve has a dastardly combination of horizontal movement (5.65 inches) and vertical drop (7.41 inches). The pitch essentially drops in the zone as much as a 12-to-6 curveball, while also breaking away from a lefty (in to a righty) more than most sliders do.

By looking at Rodriguez’s pitch data from Stat Corner, it also becomes apparent that hitters are finding Wandy’s pitches more difficult to handle. Each year in the big leagues, Rodriguez has lowered his percentage of balls thrown and increased his percentage of swinging strikes:

2005: 38.4 Ball%, 7 Swinging Strike%
2006: 37.7 Ball%, 7.7 Swinging Strike%
2007: 37.2 Ball%, 8.1 Swinging Strike%
2008: 35.5 Ball%, 8.7 Swinging Strike%

Rodriguez’s Contact% has also decreased each year, from 83.4% in 2005 down to 79.9% in 2008. If there’s a negative to point out here, it’s that Wandy has increasingly become more of a flyball-oriented hurler, not always the best idea in a park where right-handers hit some cheap home runs (according to the 2009 Bill James Handbook, Minute Maid Park increased righty home runs by 15% between 2006-2008).

Will Rodriguez continue to post such impressive numbers in the future? Marcel has Rodriguez retaining most of the gains that he has made over the past two seasons, forecasting a 4.08 FIP ERA with 7.83 K/9 and 3.27 BB/9. Given his increased usage of his plus curveball, more swings and misses from batters and fewer free passes being issued, Wandy could be a magical selection once the top-tier pitchers have been snatched up.

Scott Baker is a slightly better version of Kevin Slowey. And, as you know, Slowey is pretty good.

The similarities between these two Twins righties are striking. Take a look:

If you recall from my article about Slowey, I think that his overall numbers may underrate his actual abilities, as he appeared to show substantial improvement during the season. Still, Baker appears to be a bit better than Slowey: a few more strikeouts (although, again, I think that Slowey’s strikeout rate could rise next year), and fewer balls, even though he walked more batters.

The fact that Baker induced swinging strikes in over 10% of his pitches is an excellent sign – league average for starters is around 7.5%. Baker, like Slowey, is a fly ball pitcher, and therefore will be prone to homers. However, Baker should strike out enough batters to reduce the overall number of fly balls he allows, and he walks few enough so that he minimizes the damage when the he allows a homer.

In 2008, Baker posted a 3.45 ERA and a 3.79 FIP. His BABIP was completely normal (.290), although considering that the Twins were well-below-average defensively (they ranked 27th in Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency), perhaps Baker was a little lucky on balls in play. Baker posted a rather high LOB% of 78.7% – this should regress in the future, but it probably won’t fall more than a few percentage points. His homer rate could rise a few percentage points as well (8.5% of his fly balls left the park), but it shouldn’t rise too much.

Overall, the Scott Baker from 2008 is a very reasonable facsimile of what we should expect in the future. He should post an ERA under 4, a WHIP under 1.20, and strike out around 7 or 7.5 batters per nine innings (over 200 innings, that’s 140-150 strikeouts). Furthermore, Baker is pretty low-risk, as far as pitchers go. The injury he sustained in 2008 had nothing to do with his arm/elbow/shoulder (he strained a groin), and is unlikely to recur.

Scott Baker is the exact type of pitcher that can he had in the middle of most drafts, and is probably better than many other pitchers taken around the same time. Like Slowey, Baker is very low-risk, and the reward is fairly high.

Would you believe that 2008 was Dave Bush’s worst season?

On the surface, this might not seem so. After all, Bush posted the best ERA of his career – 4.18 in 185 innings – along with a nice 1.18 WHIP and 109 strikeouts. Certainly not the numbers of a fantasy ace, but well worth having on your team (considering that you probably got him for free from the waiver wire).

However, Bush was worse last year than he had been in the past, even though he had posted higher ERAs in the past. Let me explain.

Before 2008, Bush posted ERAs of 4.49, 4.41, and 5.12 from 2005-2007. However, his FIP was better than his ERA in 2006 and 2007, and Bush looked like the type of player who was primed for a breakout – although he didn’t punch many batters out, he limited his walks and got a fair share of grounders. Bush was hampered by a high HR/FB rate, a high BABIP (.327 in 2007) and a low LOB%.

And then, in 2008, the breakout came. Of course, it wasn’t really a “breakout” in the sense of Bush becoming a frontline starter, but rather Bush becoming a decent starter – a breakout for him. But even though Bush posted solid numbers in 2008, it appears that his “breakout” is actually more luck – just good luck, this time.

Dave Bush’s .245 BABIP was the lowest of any pitcher who pitched at least 150 innings this year. For those of you who are still skeptical of a pitcher’s inability to control BABIP, Bush is a perfect example: his BABIP was .327 just a year ago, and he had some people wondering whether he was simply more “hittable” because he didn’t have great stuff. And yet this year, he had the lowest BABIP of any starter in the game.

Needless to say, this BABIP will almost certainly regress in 2009, and Bush will allow more hits as a result.

However, the other factors that caused optimism about Bush – namely, his ground ball rate and his walk rate – got worse in 2008. Bush allowed more than 40% of his balls in play to be fly balls for the first time in his career (excluding his short stint in 2004). Fly balls left the yard at approximately a league average rate (12% of his fly balls became homers), but Bush allowed a whopping 23 homers in only 168 innings due to the sheer number of fly balls that he surrendered.

Furthermore, his control, which had been one of his biggest strengths, declined. After walking 1.91, 1.63, and 2.13 hitters per nine innings from 2005 through 2007, Bush allowed 2.38 walks in 2008. This may not seem like a big increase, but it’s a big deal for a guy like Bush, who doesn’t get many strikeouts and relies on his defense. The more free passes a low-strikeout pitcher allows, the worse he is going to be.

Finally, using some of the handy stats over at Stat Corner, we can see that Bush induced fewer swinging strikes in 2008 (7.5%) than he did in 06 and 07 (8.7% and 9.1%, respectively). This is not a good sign in and of itself, but it’s even worse when coupled with a rise in his walks. Additionally, Bush threw far more balls in 2008 (36.2% of his pitches were out of the strike zone) than he did in 06 and 07 (33.4% and 34.1%, respectively). That doesn’t bode well at all.

Dave Bush is likely to be worse – perhaps a lot worse – next season than he was in 2008. Let someone else make the mistake of overvaluing him on draft day.

In a season rife with unexpected twists and turns, Ryan Dempster’s transformation from sufficient reliever to rotation stalwart might have been the biggest surprise. Prior to 2008, Dempster had not made more than twenty starts since his last season in Cincinnati (2003), and the results were disastrous back then: A 6.54 ERA, 134 hits and 14 home runs surrendered in 115.2 innings pitched. Dempster’s lowest Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) as a starter was 4.35, all the way back in 2000 as a member of the Florida Marlins. And, to top it all off, Dempster had posted a FIP ERA over four as a reliever for the Cubs over the 2006 and 2007 seasons combined, and failed to crack a 2/1 K/BB ratio in any of his four seasons in the Chicago bullpen between 2004 and 2007.

Despite the laundry list of reasons as to why “Dempster the starter” seemed like a dubious proposition, the Cubs went ahead with the plan, and were rewarded with one of the better pitching performances in the National League. In 206.2 innings, Dempster struck out 8.14 batters per nine innings, and kept his walks at an adequate level (3.31 BB/9), something he has struggled to do in the past (career BB/9 of 4.47). Dempster’s 2.46 K/BB ratio was the highest of his career, and was actually only the second time that he has surpassed that 2/1 mark (2000 being the other year).

However, his 2.96 ERA overstates his case by about a half a run, as Dempster’s FIP ERA was 3.41. That dichotomy is the product of a low home run/flyball rate (HR/FB%) of 7.7%. HR/FB rates tend to stabilize around 11-12% for pitchers, so expect that number to regress going forward. As that HR/FB rate ticks up, so will Dempster’s 0.61 HR/9.

Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times, we can get a more accurate read on Dempster’s performance. XFIP is perhaps the best way to gauge of a pitcher’s controllable skills, as it uses strikeouts, walks and an average HR/FB rate to calculate ERA. By doing so, XFIP eliminates lucky or unlucky performances on flyballs. So, Dempster’s auspicious HR/FB rate is regressed, giving us a better indication of his actual performance. If we adjust for the home run luck, Dempster’s XFIP ERA comes in at 3.94. That figure ranked 11th among NL starters.

Is Dempster’s 2008 showing a sign of things to come, or just an aberrant, blip-on-the-radar season? As we have seen, Dempster’s performance was quite good, but not sub-three ERA good. But can Dempster be expected to keep an ERA in the high three’s to low four’s during the course of his new four-year, $52 million contract?

Ordinarily, one would have every reason to be highly skeptical of a 31 year-old with a mild track record of success, a pitcher who last performed well in the rotation at the advent of the new millennium. However, Dempster does have some things working for him on a scouting level, as his repertoire played differently in the starting five than it did out of the bullpen.

Using Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog, we can compare Dempster’s stuff out of the ‘pen in 2007 to what he threw as a starter in 2008.

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

2007

Fastball: -7.21 X, 8.15 Z
Slider: 0.16 X, 0.81 Z
Changeup: -7.13 X, 5.71 Z

Dempster’s fastball had a good deal of tailing movement in on right-handers (-7.21 X), but his slider and changeup weren’t especially reliable. His slider did not register much horizontal break away from righties. His changeup did a nice job of mirroring his fastball in terms of horizontal movement, but the difference in vertical movement between the two pitches was just 2.44 inches. That’s not a whole lot, especially considering that his fastball (92 MPH) and change (83.1) had less than a 9 MPH dichotomy in velocity.

2008

Fastball: -6.72 X, 8.26 Z
Slider: 1.23 X, 0.08 Z
Changeup: -6.95 X, 3.75 Z

Dempster’s fastball registered similar horizontal and vertical break, but the quality of his secondary pitches increased. Dempster’s slider broke over an inch more away from righties this past season, while also showing a little more dropping action in the zone. Dempster’s changeup continued to mirror his heater in terms of horizontal movement, but the difference in vertical break between the two pitches improved. Dempster’s change dropped in the zone 4.51 inches more than his fastball did, almost doubling the difference from 2007. When commentators talk about a pitcher “pulling the string” on a changeup, this is what they are referring to. With similar horizontal break but a pronounced drop in vertical movement, hitters gear up for the fastball, get the changeup, and swing over top of the pitch.

Will Dempster’s improved secondary stuff allow him to keep most of the gains that he made during the 2008 season? The Marcel projection system seems to think so, forecasting Dempster for a 3.70 ERA, 7.77 K/9 and 3.58 BB/9 in 2009. It’s important to keep in mind that Dempster outperformed his peripherals this past season, and we would expect some regression in his ERA even if he repeated his strikeout and walk levels. If Dempster keeps his walk rate in check and continues to display a nasty slider/changeup combo, he could meet Marcel’s projection.

It was a tale of two halves for Roy Oswalt in 2008. Before the All-Star break, Oswalt suffered from injuries (strained abductor muscle, hip injury) and a bad case of gopheritis. But in the second half he was one of the top pitchers in baseball. Oswalt was 7-8 with a 4.56 ERA with 18 HRs in 116.1 IP in the first half. But he was 10-2 with a 2.24 ERA with five HRs in 92.1 IP after the break.

Oswalt reversed a three-year trend of declining K/9 rates, posting a 7.12 rate. Additionally, his BB/9 and WHIP rates were nearly identical to his career rates. On the flip side, Oswalt posted the second-highest HR/FB rate of his career at 12.7 percent. The only thing that saved him was that he allowed the fewest fly balls of his career. Oswalt’s 29.2 percent FB% ranked 14th in the majors last season.

What can we expect in 2009? Oswalt’s Marcel projection, which regresses to the mean and uses an age factor, has him failing to reach 200 innings for the first time since his injury-plagued 2003, a 3.65 ERA, which would be the highest mark of his career, and the fewest strikeouts of the last five seasons. This seems a tad pessimistic.

Once Oswalt got over his injury problems, he was a completely different pitcher. The only way his Marcel projection makes sense is if Oswalt battles injuries again throughout the year, certainly a possibility given his injury history. He has endured wrist, groin, foot and hip injuries (among others) throughout his career. But he has also topped 30 starts in six of his seven full seasons in the majors.

His velocity has been unchanged the past few years and he is one of the top groundball pitchers in the majors. Oswalt’s 2008 HR rate seems like an injury-related thing, especially since he allowed 0.49 HR/9 when he was healthy after the break. Oswalt’s upside is as a top-10 pitcher. Because of his injury history, one should downgrade him somewhat. But nowhere near where his Marcel projection rates him.

The 2008 Toronto Blue Jays just might have been the strongest fourth-place team in major league history. Toiling in the brutally competitive AL East, Toronto compiled a +104 run differential due to the club’s outstanding run prevention. While strong defense deserves some of the credit (the Jays ranked 3rd in the majors in Defensive Efficiency), the Blue Jays starters were plenty effective, compiling a league-best 3.72 ERA as a staff. However, that group will look drastically different in 2009, with Shaun Marcum falling victim to Tommy John Surgery, Dustin McGowan recovering from a shoulder operation and A.J. Burnett likely headed greener pastures courtesy of a lavish free agent payday.

One of the guys who will be back (along with that Halladay fellow) is right-hander Jesse Litsch. A 24th-round draft pick out of South Florida Community College in 2004, Litsch quickly ascended to the majors following a minor league career that showcased polish, if not power (3.41 ERA, 7.71 K/9, 1.58 BB/9).

Reaching Toronto at the age of 22 in 2007, Litsch made 20 starts for the Jays. In 111 innings pitched, Litsch posted a 3.81 ERA. However, that number overstated his performance. Litsch’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) was a more tame 5.14. He displayed relatively good command (2.92 BB/9) and kept the ball on the ground (48.1 GB%), but Litsch just didn’t miss any bats, with only 4.05 K/9. That strikeout rate was the 11th-lowest among starters throwing at least 100 innings. A quick look at the other names near the bottom of the whiff list (including Steve Trachsel and Livan Hernandez) shows that it doesn’t pay to garner so few swings and misses.

In 2008, Litsch would once again outperform his peripherals, compiling a 3.58 ERA in 176 innings. The 6-1, 175 pounder benefitted from a combination of good luck and stellar defensive play behind him, posting a below-average .285 BABIP. While Litsch was fortunate to post such a low ERA, his rates did improve. His abhorrent strikeout rate crept up to 5.06 per nine innings (still quite low, but it’s something) and he issued just 1.99 BB/9. With the slightly improved K rate, sharp command and more work for his infield D (48.5 GB%), Litsch’s FIP ERA was a legitimately useful 4.29.

What makes Litsch so interesting is his “kitchen sink” approach to pitching. You name a pitch, and odds are, he throws it. Litsch used a traditional fastball less than any other pitcher in baseball this past season, save for knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. Litsch’s 89.9 MPH heater was utilized just 23.9% of the time, and that was actually up from his 18.9% fastball usage in 2007. His bread-and-butter offering is an 86 MPH cutter, used 43.4% of the time. Litsch also feeds batters a steady serving of 82 MPH sliders (11.4%), 77 MPH curves (11.9%) and 81 MPH changeups (9.4%). None of those pitches are dominating, but facing a pitcher with such a diversified repertoire has to be challenging.

Batters appeared to find Litsch’s stuff a little harder to hit in 2008. His Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) climbed from a below-average 19.6% in ’07 to 25.5% in 2008. That bodes well for his long-term prospects. As Eric Seidman discovered, there is a statistically significant relationship between O-Swing% and BB/9, WHIP, ERA, and FIP ERA.

Both the Bill James and Marcel projection systems see some regression coming to Litsch’s ERA in 2009, with James predicting a 4.06 mark and Marcel forecasting a 3.87 showing. Both systems have Litsch’s projected FIP ERA at 4.43.

Jesse Litsch will never be a dominant starter, as his low strikeout rate will often keep him at the caprices of the defense behind him. Luckily, the leather behind Litsch is solid right now. That, coupled with groundball tendencies and strong control, should be enough for the 24 year-old to post another season worthy of fantasy consideration.

While I’m quite sure that we are all familiar with the $137.5 million dollar man in Queens, there is yet another pitcher with the Santana surname who just turned in one of the best seasons of any starter in the game in 2008. Ervin Santana, long noted for his power fastball/slider combo, emerged as one of the more valuable properties in the American League.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic as an undrafted free agent in 2000, Santana made his major league debut in 2005. He would post a 4.43 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) in 133.2 IP that season, with 6.67 K/9 and 3.16 BB/9. A flyball pitcher (36.6 GB%), he was occasionally bit by the home run bug, with 1.14 HR/9.

Santana’s 2006 line would look largely the same in terms of his peripherals, as he struck out 6.22 batters per nine innings and issued 3.09 BB/9. His FIP ERA lowered slightly, down to 4.29. Though he remained a flyball-oriented hurler (38.4 GB%), Santana had better luck in the home run department. His 0.93 HR/9 was largely the product of a low 7.7 HR/FB%.

After two solid campaigns, Santana seemed primed to build upon his success and establish a new level of performance. Instead, he got his head handed to him: in 150 IP, Santana posted a ghastly 5.76 ERA. Some of that was the product of a very high BABIP (.333) and a low strand rate (67.3 LOB%), and he did manage to up his K rate to 7.56. However, his walk rate increased (3.48 BB/9) and he was crushed by the long ball, surrendering 1.56 HR/9. His HR/FB rate (11.9%) was not especially out of whack; he just gave up a ton of flyballs. Santana’s 35.6 GB% was the 8th-lowest among starters tossing at least 140 innings. With the higher walk rate and the homer-happy style, Santana’s FIP ERA climbed to 5.13.

Over his first three seasons in the big leagues, Santana utilized a four pitch mix: a fastball, slider, curveball and changeup.

Santana’s Pitch Selection, 2005-2007:

(FB=fastball, SL=Slider, CT=Cutter, CB=Curveball, CH=Changeup, SF= Split Finger XX= unidentified. The first number is the % that the pitch was thrown, the number in parentheses is the velocity)

2005: FB 61.7% (93.4), SL 21.7% (81), CB 6.3% (78), CH 10% (84.2), SF 0.3% (86.7)
2006: FB 60.9% (93.1), SL 21% (80.9), CB 8.5% (78.1), CH 9.6% (82.1)
2007: FB 61.9% (92.2), SL 24% (81), CB 8.7% (77.1), CH 5.5% (83.1)

Santana seemed to make an effort to incorporate all four pitches into his arsenal, though his changeup seemed to be waning in favor. He lost nearly a mile an hour off of his fastball in 2007, which would help explain his home run issues. Santana is a guy who likes to challenge hitters up in the zone with his four-seam fastball. One MPH might not seem like much, but it could mean all the difference in the world to a hitter’s reaction time.

In 2008, Santana returned with a simpler pitching approach. He basically scrapped the curve and used his change even less, instead choosing to rely upon his nasty slider:

Santana’s Pitch Selection, 2008:

FB 61.4% (94.4), SL 33.9% (83.9), CB 0.8% (78.1), CH 3.9% (85.8)

Santana’s fastball velocity bounced back to a career-high 94.4 MPH, and he increased his slider usage by about 10 percent. With improved heat and a harder, oft-utilized slider (the slider nearly gained 3 MPH), Santana drastically improved his performance this past season. He upped his WPA/LI from -1.85 to 3.08, almost a five-win swing. Santana’s strikeout rate jumped to 8.79 and he walked just 1.93 batters per nine innings. His HR/FB% was low at 8.9%, so his 0.95 HR/9 figures to creep up somewhat, but his FIP ERA was an outstanding 3.30. That figure ranked 5th among all American League starters. He also managed to correct his cartoonish home/road splits, though it’s debatable how much of that was just statistical “noise” from 2005-2007. Angel Stadium suppresses home run production, but no pitcher should have that wide of a split between home and road performance. Given Santana’s talent, there’s no reason to expect any wide split going forward.

There are plenty of other positive indicators as well. Santana got ahead of hitters much more consistently in 2008, upping his First-Pitch Strike Percentage (F-Strike%) from 59.9% in 2007 to 66.7% in ’08. Among all major league starters, only the incredibly precise Mike Mussina (67.6%) got ahead of batters with more frequency. Hitters also went fishing outside of the strike zone far more often this past season. Santana’s O-Swing% increased from 26.3% in 2007 to 31.7% in 2008. Only Jake Peavy and CC Sabathia garnered more undisciplined swings from batters. Santana’s Contact% also dipped by a solid margin, from 83.3% in ’07 to 77.1% in ’08. That 2008 figure ranked 11th among all starters, just slightly behind that other Santana guy.

Just about every performance indicator for Ervin Santana is trending up. Unleashing mid-90’s heat and a hellacious mid-80’s slider, Santana has increased his strikeouts, slashed his walk rate, is getting ahead of hitters and is becoming increasingly harder to hit. What’s not to like? 2008 was no outlier: Santana is here to stay as one of the best starters in the game.