Although their repertoires and approaches vary, Canadian hurlers Shawn Hill and Rich Harden share a common theme: their susceptibility to injury. Both players are also 27 years of age and both were selected in the 2000 draft – Hill in the sixth round and Harden in the 17th round.

Hill has never pitched more than 16 Major League games in one season thanks to his ongoing injury woes, which have included Tommy John surgery. In 206.1 career innings, the right-hander has a 4.93 ERA and has allowed 234 hits. In 2008, Hill never looked completely healthy for the Washington Nationals and he allowed 88 hits in 63.1 innings. He posted rates of 3.27 BB/9 and 5.54 K/9. Hill does a respectable job of keeping batted balls on the ground and he posted a HR/9 rate of 0.71 last season.

Hill averages right around 90 mph with his fastball and he has been fairly consistent with that pitch over the past three seasons. His curveball was thrown about three miles per hour harder in 2008 than in the previous two seasons, although his usage dropped about four percent – in part due to the emergence of a slider, which he used 5.5 percent of the time. Hill also uses a change-up just under seven percent of the time.

Harden, now with the Chicago Cubs, appeared in just 16 games between 2006 and 2007 thanks to numerous injuries to his arm and shoulder. When healthy, though, he has been dominating. He has a 3.23 career ERA in 612.2 innings. Harden, 27, has also allowed just 7.1 hits per nine innings during that span of time. Last season, he made 25 starts between Oakland and Chicago, which was his highest number of appearances at the Major League level since 2004.

Combined, Harden pitched 148 innings and allowed just 96 hits. He posted rates of 3.71 BB/9 and 11.01 K/9. The flyball pitcher did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park with a HR/9 rate of 0.67. Harden’s average fastball has lost about two miles per hour from where it sat in 2005. Perhaps in an effort to protect his arm, Harden has changed his repertoire and approach. He has all but eliminated his splitter in favor of his change-up, which he threw almost 30 percent of the time in 2008, compared to nine percent in 2005. Harden has also cut back on using his slider – which has regressed from a usage of 10.7 percent in 2005 to just under three percent in 2008.

Both players enter 2009 with question marks. Harden pitched the second highest number of Major League innings in his career, but he was absolutely dominating in both the American and National Leagues. He has the potential to be a top-tiered starter, but with a history of shoulder problems – including the rotator cuff – caution must be used when acquired him in a Fantasy draft. In other words, don’t overpay or spend too early of a pick on the hurler. Expect to get 120-140 above-average innings out of him, and be thankful for anything beyond that.

Hill, who missed significant time in 2008 with forearm tightness, had bone spurs removed from his elbow in September and is expected to be “healthy” when spring training rolls around. If the medical reports are indeed good as the regular season begins, he is a name you should remember in NL-only Fantasy Baseball Leagues. Hill has the potential to provide a number of quality starts, but his ceiling is significantly below that of Harden.

The Dodgers are coming off a season in which they won their division and finished second in the National League. Yet, it’s possible they could lose two-fifths of their rotation, their starting left fielder, and non-tender their closer. Whether the Dodgers decide to invest money towards CC Sabathia, Manny Ramirez, or whomever else is up to be decided, but one thing that should be a given is the placement of James McDonald in the starting rotation.

Despite making a cameo in the Dodgers playoff run late last season, McDonald is still a relative unknown. A low-90’s fastball and mid-70’s breaking stuff doesn’t do much for the imagination, but McDonald has shown the ability to excel without any pitch that “grades out” and commands a strong minor league track record. Drafted as a pitcher, McDonald spent 2003 in rookie ball, throwing 49 innings and showing little concern for the opposing lineup’s collective confidence levels. In 2004, the Dodgers would shift McDonald to the outfield and give him a bat. He’d struggle in 125 at-bats, recording only three extra base hits, and having a 12:44 walk-to-strikeout ratio. That would’ve been excellent, if only he were still pitching.

Los Angeles would correct their error in 2006, and McDonald would return to dominating in 2007; breezing through High-A and Double-A with K/BB ratios over four and FIPs of 2.88 and 3.03. McDonald spent most of 2008 in Double-A, encountering a few hiccups; the most prevalent being a decreased strikeout ratio and increased walk ratio. A 22 innings stint in Las Vegas capped off McDonald’s minor league season, as he soon joined the major league club.

Since 2007, McDonald faced 1,047 batters in the minors. Of those, 281 struck out, or 27%. That’s pretty impressive for someone without “plus stuff”. The one downfall for McDonald could be his fly ball tendencies leading to potentially high homerun totals. McDonald didn’t show too many concerns about this in the minors, with HR/9 ratios usually clocking in just under one per, and pitching within the homerun suppressant Dodger Stadium should help, but the out-via-air patterns are worth noting.

Marcels isn’t much help with McDonald’s non-existent major league profile, but it’s easy to see McDonald lapping Brad Penny’s 2008, and being a bit of a sleeper in wins, strikeouts, and WHIP categories.

When Carlos Zambrano broke into the major leagues in 2001, he was the epitome of power pitching. The burly 6-5, 255 pounder pumped mid-90’s gas, and though he didn’t always know where it was headed, he racked up big strikeout totals. Zambrano punched out over 7 batters per nine innings between 2002 and 2003, before graduating into 8 K/9 territory. He whiffed 8.07 per nine in 2004 and 8.14/9 in 2006, before culminating at 8.83 K/9 in 2006.

However, as Big Z was racking up the K’s, his control was suffering. After walking about three-and-a-half batters per nine innings in ’04 and ’05, his BB/9 rocketed to 4.84 in 2006. Despite the higher strikeout rates, Zambrano’s controllable skills were headed in the wrong direction:

Zambrano’s Fielding Independent ERA’s, 2003-2006:

2003: 3.47
2004: 3.57
2005: 3.70
2006: 4.14

In 2007, Zambrano’s control took a (relative) step in the right direction, as he cut his walk rate to 4.20 batters per nine innings. However, that improvement seemed to come with a cost, as Zambrano’s K rate fell to 7.36/9. That shift produced further slippage in his FIP, as Big Z posted a career-high 4.58 mark.

Zambrano’s halted his rapidly ascending FIP in 2008, posting a 4.23 figure. He showed further improvement with the free passes (his 3.43 BB/9 was the lowest mark of his career), but Zambrano’s refined control came at the further expense of his strikeout rate. Big Z struck out a downright pedestrian 6.2 batters per nine innings, a far cry from his work just a few seasons prior.

While some might still categorize Zambrano as a power arm, he doesn’t really seem to fit the description anymore. Big Z once lit up the radar guns, but his fastball velocity has dipped in each of the past four seasons:

Zambrano’s fastball velocity, 2005-2008:

2005: 92.8 MPH
2006: 92.2 MPH
2007: 91.6 MPH
2008: 91.3 MPH

The 2008 version of Zambrano was at least more economical with his pitches. He posted his lowest pitches per plate appearance (3.80) and pitches/IP (16.0) since 2003. Big Z has also become more adept at getting batters to chase his offerings outside of the strike zone. His O-Swing% during his high-K 2006 season was 19.8%, but that figure climbed to 25.3% in 2007 and 25.7% this past season. With more pitches being thrown around the strike zone, batters seem less apt to lay off in hopes of coaxing a walk.

The combination of decreased velocity, K’s and walks leads one to believe that Zambrano is making an effort to show better control and put the ball around the plate more often. However, that improved command has significantly cut into his number of swings and misses generated. Once one of the more difficult starting pitchers to make contact with, Zambrano now ranks in the middle of the pack:

Zambrano’s Contact%, 2005-2008

2005: 77.9%
2006: 78.1%
2007: 78.8%
2008: 82.5%

It’s difficult to be very enthusiastic about the new, lower-octane Zambrano. Sure, his control is better. But he’s not going to be confused with Curt Schilling or Mike Mussina any time soon, and his whiff rate has dipped to the point where he’s actually below the NL league average of 6.99 in that department.

A pitcher can certainly be successful with a moderate K rate and worm-burning skills, but typically that sort of profile also requires the ability to paint the corners. Zambrano has improved in that regard, but his gains in the walk department still leave his control rating as just ordinary. When you combine a league-average K rate with a league-average walk rate, you get…a league average pitcher.

Still just 27, Zambrano has already accumulated nearly 1,400 innings on his right arm. That’s a Herculean workload, one that appears to be taken some bite off of his pitches. Courtesy of Baseball-Reference, we find that Zambrano’s most comparable player through age 27 is Ramon Martinez.

Like Zambrano, Martinez routinely crossed the 200-inning mark in his early 20’s, compiling plenty of strikeouts and walks along the way. However, such a massive workload at such a young age cut Martinez’s career short. Martinez’s major league career was effectively over by the age of 30 when his shoulder gave out, though he trudged on a little longer before calling it quits at 33. Perhaps Big Z finds his fastball zip this offseason, but all signs point to his days as a certifiable ace being over. As Martinez can attest, few youthful pitchers overcome such arduous innings totals to enjoy a lengthy career.

We all know Barry Zito. He is the biggest bust in free agent history. Zito is the guy who walks over five batters per nine. He is the fellow with the -2.79 WPA, the fourth-worst mark among starting pitchers last year. Zito is also the guy who falls down in high leverage situations, as his -1.34 Clutch rate was the third-worst for starters. He is the pitcher with an average fastball velocity of 84.9, the fifth-slowest mark in baseball and surrounded by guys in their 40s.

So, why on earth would we focus on him as a fantasy player?

In the beginning of the century, Zito was one of the top pitchers in baseball. There is a combination of ability and pitching smarts hidden beneath the wreckage of the past two seasons.

Well, that and he rebounded to pitch half decently after an awful start in 2008.

After nine starts, Zito was 0-8 with a 6.25 ERA along with 24 walks and 22 strikeouts in 44.2 innings. And just for kicks he allowed six home runs in that stretch. Not much return for $14.5 million, was it?

But from May 23 until the end of the season, Zito was 10-9 with a 4.79 ERA. Now, that’s hardly anything to get excited about but at the very least it was a drastic improvement over what he did at the beginning of the season. His K/9 ratio jumped to 6.52 while his BB/9 actually increased to 5.19 from 4.84 earlier in the season. And he also kept the ball in the park, allowing a 0.67 HR/9 mark.

One of the keys to Zito’s turnaround is that he actually showed a little more life on his fastball as the season progressed. According to Dan Brooks’ PitchFX site, in his penultimate start of the year, Zito’s fastball averaged 87.17 mph with a high of 89.4 compared to a season average of 84.9 as was mentioned earlier. By contrast, in his April 27 start, Zito’s fastball topped out at 84.4 and his average was 82.8 for the day.

With more life on his fastball, Zito went from awful to a league-average type starter. The final step in his rehabilitation will be to get his walk rate under control. And the main problem is still his fastball. According to Josh Kalk’s PITCHf/x tool, Zito’s fastball broke down like this:

Balls – 337
Called Strikes – 185
Swing and Miss – 36
Foul Ball – 123
Out Recorded – 78
Hit – 30

Clearly, with a heater that still doesn’t crack 90 mph, Zito can’t just lay his fastball down the heart of the plate. But hopefully, he can move closer to the strike zone and get more swings.

At this point, that is simply wishcasting. Zito actually has to go out and do it. Right now, he is not worth drafting in mixed leagues. But with the improvement that he showed last year, and with his past pedigree, Zito is someone to target late in NL-only leagues. And my hunch is that he will be a popular addition in mixed leagues during the season.

John Lackey’s ERA was the highest it has been since 2004, and his FIP was even higher. Should you be worried?

No.

In 2008, Lackey posted a 3.75 ERA and a 4.53 FIP. However, much of this can be attributed to an extremely high HR/FB. In fact, 15.3% of Lackey’s fly balls became homers last year, as compared to 7.3%, 5.7%, 6.6% and 9.0% over the previous four years, respectively. Lackey’s career HR/FB is 9.3% – just a tick under league average, and there’s no reason to think he suddenly became more homer-prone in 2008.

Lackey’s strikeout rate remained identical to his 2007 rate (and remember, he posted a 3.01 ERA in 2007), as he struck out 7.16 batters per nine in 08 and 7.19 per nine in 07. His walk rate also remained the same: 2.20 walks per nine in 08, 2.09 per nine in 07. Both his strikeout and walk rate have been trending down since 2005, and it appears that they have stabilized over the last two years.

Lackey’s batted ball data from 2008 was essentially in line with his career averages: batters hit line drives 20.2% of the time, ground balls 45.1% of the time and fly balls 34.7%. His career averages in these categories are 21.2% LD, 43.0% GB and 34.7% FB. Additionally, his pitch velocity and selection appear to be unchanged.

If you want to find something to be concerned about, it is worth noting that the amount of swinging strikes that Lackey has induced has gone down for four years running. In 2005, batters swung and missed at 10.2% of Lackey’s pitches; in 06 that fell to 9.7%, then 8.8% in 07 and 8.5% this year. This is still above average (league average for starters is 7.5%), but the downward trend is worrisome.

Overall, however, that’s the only warning sign for 2009, and it’s a relatively minor one at that. Lackey had a high LOB% in 2008 – he stranded 80.2% of the runners who reached base – and that number should regress towards his career average of 73.3%. However, that regression will likely be negated by the regression he should experience in his home run rate as well.

Lackey’s ERA probably won’t be 3.01 like it was in 2007, but it’s unlikely to be any higher than the 3.75 of 2008. A return to his 2005-2006 level of ERA is most likely. Lackey’s biggest problem may be the team around him, as I believe the Angels are in for a (perhaps serious) decline in 2009, one that could leave Lackey’s win total wanting. That, and his relatively low strikeout rate, probably prevent him from being a top-10 fantasy starter, but his durability and general skills probably leave him comfortably in the 11-20 range.

He’s still a very good pitcher, but his name recognition may slightly outpace his performance (even with an expected regression in HR/FB), perhaps leaving him a little overvalued in some leagues.

Michael Bowden had a fantastic season in 2008. He began the year at double-A Portland, where he posted a 101/24 K/BB ratio in 104 innings. He also allowed only five homers. He was then promoted to triple-A, where he put up a 29/5 ratio in 40 innings, while allowing five homers. On the surface, those are some excellent numbers.

But if you look beyond the surface, you’ll see that Bowden was even better than his overall numbers suggested. Bowden’s tRA* (which can be found over at Stat Corner) at double-A was 3.20. That’s the best tRA* of any starting pitcher in the minor leagues this year, at any level.

And yes, the Eastern League (in which Portland plays) is generally pretty favorable to pitchers. But still: Bowden’s tRA* was over 25% better than the next closest pitcher in the Eastern League. Bowden’s led the league in tRA* by a larger margin than any other pitcher in the minors led his league. In other words, relative to his own league, Bowden was by far the most dominant starting pitcher in the minor leagues.

Furthermore, Bowden showed no visible home/road splits, nor any lefty/righty splits. To be sure, Bowden’s raw stats were enhanced by a .247 BABIP and a low HR/FB; however, tRA* takes these things into account, by ignoring BABIP (instead focusing on what types of batted balls a pitcher gets), and regressing HR/FB. Therefore, while Bowden’s overall stats may represent a semblance of good luck (low BABIP, for example), his tRA* is luck-free.

Finally, Bowden is not a “trick” pitcher – his velocity and stuff backs up his stats, suggesting that he could find continued success at the big league level. In his one start at the major league level, his fastball averaged 92 MPH, and he showed four pitches: a fastball, curveball, slider and changeup.

Of course, there is no guarantee that Bowden will be able to have success in the future. However, using tRA* gives us a better understanding of the pitcher Bowden was in 2008, and therefore gives us a better insight into what kind of pitcher he can be in 2009 and beyond: namely, a top-tier starter.

The Red Sox already have an impressive array of young pitchers – Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, and Clay Buchholz (who I still believe will be good) are all under 30 years old. Bowden can get lost in the shuffle, but he was the very best starting pitcher in all of the minor leagues in 2008, despite being just 21 years old.

Of course, the Red Sox’s tremendous amount of pitching talent means that Bowden may not make too many starts in the majors in 2009. The Red Sox will carefully monitor his innings total – he pitched 150 innings last year, after totaling 142 innings in 2007 and 112 innings in 2006. The Red Sox probably won’t want him to exceed 160-170 innings in 2009.

However, there may be room for Bowden at the major league level: Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, and Wakefield are all ahead of him, but Buchholz may have fallen behind him, Masterson may be a full-time reliever and Wakefield is very risky. Bowden has demonstrated that he’s ready to pitch – and be successful – at the major league level, and if given the chance to make some starts in 2009, he could be quite a steal for your fantasy team.

Tampa Bay Rays southpaw Scott Kazmir is exceptionally talented yet eminently frustrating. Still just 25 years of age heading into the 2009 season, Kazmir has a long history of missing bats (career 9.75 K/9) and walking the yard (4.13 BB/9). Those trends continued in 2008 (9.81 BB/9, 4.14 BB/9), but they way in which the former Mets farmhand went about getting those familiar results continued to change rather drastically. The 6 foot, 190 pounder has posted very similar ERA’s over the past three seasons (3.24, 3.48 and 3.49, respectively), but his pitching style and underlying skills have morphed from 2006 to the present day. It may sound strange to say, but the current version of Scott Kazmir scarcely resembles the guy who took the hill at the Trop a few years back.

By 2006, Kazmir had established himself as a lefty with plus velocity, a wipeout slider and a decent changeup. He used his 91.9 MPH heater 56.2% of the time, relying heavily on his nasty 84 MPH breaking pitch (28.6%) while also utilizing an 82 MPH changeup 15.2% of the time. Punching out 10.14 batters per nine innings and issuing 3.24 BB/9, Kazmir posted a sparkling 3.36 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA).

The shift in Kazmir’s pitch selection began in 2007, as he began to rely more heavily upon his fastball. Kazmir threw his 92.1 MPH cheese to batters 69.6% of the time, a hefty increase of 13.4% from the previous year. While he threw his 81.4 MPH change a little bit less (11.6%), it was Kazmir’s 83.7 MPH slider that took a considerable drop in usage (18.8%). Kazmir’s FIP ERA remained strong (3.45), as a small spike in K’s (10.41 per nine innings) offset an increase in walks (3.88 BB/9).

Kazmir took his fastball preference to even greater extremes this past season, as he threw his 91.7 MPH heater a whopping 75.3% of the time. Among starters tossing at least 150 innings, only perennial disappointment Daniel Cabrera and sinkerballers Aaron Cook and Mike Pelfrey utilized the fastball more often. Kazmir essentially scrapped his once-signature slider, throwing the 82 MPH pitch just 9.6%. Instead, he used a 78.8 MPH changeup as his preferred secondary offering, pulling the string on 15.1% of his total pitches.

By looking at Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog, it becomes apparent that Kazmir didn’t feel as comfortable using his slider in strikeout situations and in full counts:

0-and-2 pitch usage

2007: Fastball (58.7%), Slider (39.7%), Changeup (1.6%)

2008: Fastball (72.8%), Slider (24.3%) , Changeup (2.9%)

3-and-2 pitch usage

2007: Fastball (63%), Slider (26.1%) , Changeup (10.9%)

2008: Fastball (91.5%), Slider (2.1%) , Changeup (6.4%)

Kazmir preferred his fastball in situations where he got well ahead of the batter, and when he absolutely needed to throw a strike, he basically shunned his slider.

In 2008, Kazmir’s FIP ERA ascended to 4.37. The primary culprit was a big spike in home runs allowed. After posting HR/9 marks of 0.93 and 0.78 in 2006 and 2007 respectively, Kazmir tossed way too many pitches that ended up as souvenirs in ’08 (1.36 HR/9). One might be inclined to write the increased home runs off, believing it was just an anomaly. However, Kazmir was not particularly unlucky on flyballs, as his HR/FB ratio of 12% was just slightly above the norm. The cause of the homer increase can be tied to his becoming one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in the majors. After compiling groundball rates of 42% and 43.1% in 2006 and 2007 respectively, Kazmir put the ball in the dirt just 30.8% of the time in 2008. That was the lowest rate of any starter pitching at least 150 frames.

You wouldn’t really know it by taking a quick glance at his stat sheet, but Kazmir has changed his game plan quite a bit over the past few seasons. What sort of effect will these changes have on him going forward? Let’s deal with them one by one…

Increased fastball usage, far fewer sliders

Kazmir threw his heater nearly 20% more in 2008 than he did in 2006, rarely utilizing his once bread-and-butter slider. It’s difficult to say what sort of role Kazmir’s elbow injury played in his pitch usage. Was he rarely breaking out the slider because it put increased pressure on his tender arm? If so, will he return to throwing it more often in 2009, or will he continue to favor the less stressful changeup? Also, what sort of effect did Kazmir’s fastball love have on his walk rate? Was his pitch selection the cause of his even more pronounced control issues, or was that the product of his elbow troubles?

Using the changeup as his favored offspeed pitch

If Kazmir prefers the changeup, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The speed differential between his fastball and change has increased over the past few seasons (9.9 MPH in ’06, 10.7 MPH in ’07, and 12.9 MPH in ’08), and the pitch features excellent vertical drop:

Fastball : 5.92 X, 10.48 Z
Changeup: 7.46 X, 4.1 Z

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

Kazmir’s change shows both fading and tumbling action, dropping over 6 inches further than his fastball. Combine that movement with a solid speed differential, and Kazmir’s change has the makings of a knockout pitch.

Flyball tendencies

It was one season of data, but Kazmir became the most extreme flyball pitcher in the big leagues. Should those tendencies stick, he’s going to surrender plenty of longballs again in 2009. With starts coming against forces such as Fenway Park’s Green Monster (doubles park factor from 2006-2008: 143), The Rogers Centre (HR park factor: 113) and Camden Yards (HR park factor: 123), putting the ball in the air so often is probably not advisable.

Kazmir posted another shiny ERA in 2008, but his controllable skills took a bit of a backslide as he battled his control and gave up home runs aplenty. A .275 BABIP and an extraordinarily high 82.5 LOB% masked his problems, but Kazmir could disappoint if he takes to the air with such frequency again in 2009.

Who would have thought, entering the 2008 season, that Armando Galarraga would end up being Detroit’s most consistent starting pitcher? With Justin Verlander stranding an unusually low percentage of runners, Jeremy Bonderman (whose career divide between his peripherals and ERA would make Javier Vazquez blush) succumbing to injury, Kenny Rogers (a career-worst 5.22 FIP ERA) looking cooked and Nate Robertson suffering from horrible luck on balls put in play (.343 BABIP), Galarraga was the only starter to post a sub-four ERA for a group that authored a combined 5.03 ERA.

Galarraga had previously been part of a blockbuster deal, as the Washington Nationals shipped him as well outfielders Terrmel Sledge and Brad Wilkerson to the Rangers for Alfonso Soriano in December of 2005. Galarraga’s trade from Texas to the Tigers, however, was much less splashy. Designated for assignment by the pitching-starved Rangers, Galarraga moved to the Motor City for outfielder Michael Hernandez, who went undrafted out of Oklahoma State in 2006. Galarraga was seen as possessing enough talent to help fill in at the back of a big league pitching staff, but he had missed nearly all of the 2002 and 2003 seasons following Tommy John surgery, as well as 2006 while battling a shoulder injury.

While Hernandez failed to impress at High-A and moved on to the Mets organization, Galarraga posted a 3.73 ERA for the Tigers in 28 starts. His 13-7 record was a breath of fresh air for a club that rarely received stellar starting performances. Regardless of what occurs from this point forward, the Tigers received one year of above-average pitching essentially for free. That’s a great deal no matter how you cut it. Unfortunately, there are plenty of reasons to expect Galarraga’s good fortune to come to an end in 2009.

The 6-4, 180 pounder compiled a superficially impressive ERA, but there was a Grand Canyon-sized gap between his actual ERA and his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA). Galarraga’s FIP ERA was a much less impressive 4.88, over 1.1 runs higher than his actual mark. That dichotomy between his ERA and FIP ERA (-1.15 runs) was the largest in the majors, surpassing Daisuke Matsuzaka (-1.13) and Johan Santana (-0.97). Galarraga didn’t miss that many bats, striking out 6.35 batters per nine innings, and his control was just fair (3.07 BB/9). He was somewhat unlucky in the home run department (his HR/FB% was 13), but even using XFIP from The Hardball Times to adjust for that, his ERA came in at a less shiny 4.59. So, Galarraga struck out just slightly more than the league average, showed ordinary control and gave up his fair share of longballs. How did he manage to outperform his controllable skills by such a large margin?

The answer lies in Galarraga’s BABIP and Strand Rate (LOB%). The soon-to-be 27 year-old posted a minuscule .247 BABIP. Among starting pitchers, only David Bush and Tim Wakefield received more auspicious bounces on balls put in play. Galarraga also stranded runners at a 75.6% clip, above the 70-72% average in that category. When more of those balls put in play fail to reach gloves and his strand rate presumably ticks down, Galarraga’s ERA is going to climb.

As a free-talent acquisition, Armando Galarraga was an excellent value for the Tigers. However, his solid 2008 campaign looks more like a mirage than a harbinger of things to come. Let someone else pick Galarraga and end up disappointed with the results.

The Washington Nationals’ pitching staff is essentially in disarray. While bailouts have become commonplace in the nation’s capital, the Nats’ rotation might need government assistance more than all other corporate entities combined. Washington’s starting corps could be considered a toxic asset; when a rapidly descending Scott Olsen may very well be your club’s best hope at cultivating an ace, something is seriously wrong.

While Washington’s compilation of semi-prospects and retreads posted a combined 4.97 starters’ ERA in 2008, there was one home-grown bright spot. John Lannan, a little-known 11th round selection out of Siena College in 2005, pieced together a solid rookie season. Lannan went from “that guy who broke Chase Utley’s hand” to one of the more effective young starters in the NL, posting a 3.91 ERA in 182 innings of work.

Never known for his overpowering stuff, Lannan mixed in five different offerings to opposing batters. He supplemented his soft 87.5 MPH fastball (thrown 60.1% of the time) with a 80.3 MPH slider (15.5%), 74.5 MPH curveball (12.4%), 80.9 MPH changeup (10.6%) and the occasional 86.5 MPH cutter (1.3%).

So, Lannan is a five-pitch lefty with a good rookie season under his belt. He should only get better, right? Well, not so fast.

Lannan did a very good job of keeping the ball on the ground (54.2 GB%), but his peripheral stats (5.79 K/9, 3.56 BB/9) do not match up with his ERA. On top of a mild K rate and ordinary control, Lannan benefitted from a .273 BABIP (11th-lowest among qualified starters).

He experienced unusually poor luck on flyballs (his HR/FB% of 15.2 was 3-4% higher than average), but we can use Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times to better gauge Lannan’s abilities. XFIP uses strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate (rooting out Lannan’s poor luck on flyballs) to give us a more accurate account of a pitcher’s controllable skills. Lannan’s XFIP was 4.47. That’s actually slightly below the NL average ERA of 4.43 for starting pitchers.

One might look at John Lannan and see a 24 year-old southpaw who just posted a sub-4 ERA season, and therefore might expect better things in 2009. However, Lannan’s finesse style and just average ability to paint the corners (his career minor league BB/9 is 3.51) portend to a good deal of regression in 2009. Lannan could use his eclectic repertoire and groundball tendencies to post an ERA somewhere in the mid-four’s, but he’s more mid-rotation material than future ace.

As you’ll certainly notice if you read my articles on this site, I have an affinity for mediocre pitchers. Or rather, I have an interest for non-ace pitchers who aren’t amazing, but are solid.

Unless you’re playing in a very shallow league, non-ace pitchers can make or break your season. Everyone can identify the CC Sabathias and Josh Becketts of the world. However, pitching is difficult to assess and predict; there are many pitchers who come “out of nowhere” to have respectable seasons. If you’re able to identify these players, you can get some excellent values on your pitchers, and focus your earlier-round picks on safer-bet offensive players.

Furthermore, even pitching staffs with aces at the front need solid pitchers behind them. Often times, you can get a pitcher in 15th round who pitches as well as someone drafted in the 8th round – you just need to know where to look.

And for those of you play in truly deep leagues, and/or AL- or NL-only leagues, you often find yourself stuck with awful pitchers because you simply need to fill those spots. Sometimes the best pitching staffs aren’t the ones that are filled with aces, but rather are the staffs that don’t have any pitchers like Carlos Silva bringing down the rest of the staff.

With that in mind, let’s discuss Mitch Talbot.

Who?

Mitch Talbot, a 25-year-old left-hander in the Rays organization, may have had one of the least noticed excellent seasons by any minor league pitcher this year. Talbot is understandably overshadowed in an organization with a ridiculous amount of pitching talent. That said, he also had a very good season.

In 161 innings in triple-A, Talbot posted a 3.86 ERA – solid, but not awe-inspiring. Of course, we know that ERA is far from the best predictor for a pitcher’s future success – especially for minor leaguers. Talbot also tallied 141 strikeouts and allowed only 35 walks – an excellent ratio. Furthermore, Talbot induced twice as many ground balls as fly balls, thus leading to him allowing only nine homers. In fact, in 684 career innings in the minors, Talbot has allowed a mere 44 homers. That’s excellent.

Furthermore, Talbot’s 3.86 ERA is misleading due to the fact that he had a very high BABIP this season – .326, to be precise. That’s a lot higher than we’d expect, even allowing for the fact that as a ground-ball pitcher, Talbot will allow a few more hits than a fly-ball pitcher (of course, these hits are likely to only be singles).

While Talbot is excellent against left-handed batters, he’s not bad against righties either, suggesting that he won’t necessarily need to be moved to the bullpen. Furthermore, he improved throughout the season – in the last two months, he struck out 64 batters in 64 innings. Granted, this is a small sample size, so we can’t read too much into it, but it’s very possible that Talbot was continually improving throughout the season.

Of course, Talbot’s biggest problem at the moment is that he plays for the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s no higher than seventh on their starting pitching depth chart (and is in danger of being passed by Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and Jeremy Hellickson). However, odds are pretty good that the Rays will deal Edwin Jackson (or perhaps move him to the bullpen) to allow David Price into the rotation. Furthermore, starting pitchers are fragile – should any Rays pitcher get hurt (I’m looking at you, Scott), Talbot may be called up to fill in.

Finally, there is a very real chance that Talbot will be dealt within the next year, as the Rays look to shore up right field, designated hitter, and their bullpen.

Keep your eye very closely on Mitch Talbot. He’s ready to contribute to a major league team, and if he finds himself in a position to start every fifth day for any team, you may have yourself a late-round steal or excellent waiver wire pickup.